Thai production expected to increase 2.6% to 2 million units in 2017

Exports to remain flat due to global downturn even as Thai market recovers

2017/01/30

Summary

Thai vehicle production, exports and sales
Thai vehicle production, exports and sales

2016 sales in Thailand decrease due to limited buying power; 2017 sales expected to rise

  In Thailand, a new excise tax structure based on CO2 emissions was implemented from January 2016, and in anticipation of tax increases for some models, there was a last minute surge in demand at the end of 2015. As a result, sales were depressed at the beginning of 2016. In the ensuing year sales were stagnant due to tightening of auto loan approval terms and limited purchasing power. Following the death of the Thai King in October, economic activities were slow as mourning put a brake on consumption. According to estimates the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) released in December 2016, sales for the year were expected to fall 6.2% year-over-year (y/y) to 750,000 units. However, sales are projected to increase 6.7% y/y to 800,000 units in 2017 when auto loans that were taken out under the first-time car buyer scheme introduced in 2011-2012 are repaid and the five-year lock-up period for vehicles bought under the scheme expires.



2017 production to increase slightly as exports stabilize

  FTI forecasts that 2017 production volume will increase 2.6% y/y to 2 million units. While Thailand has a total production capacity of more than three million units, this continues to exceed actual needs. Meanwhile, Honda plans to integrate its production lines starting in March 2017 to improve production efficiency.

  Of the vehicles produced in the country, those for export are expected to be on the same level as the previous year at 1.2 million units. Exports will remain flat due to stagnant economies in the Middle East and other regions. In addition, exports to the U.S. may be affected by shifts in economic policy put into effect by the new presidential administration.



Thai government introduces EV promotion package

  In March 2016 the Thai government created a roadmap for the general popularization of EVs in order to make the country a hub for EV assembly, and thereby develop Thai economy by means of high-tech industries and promote the use of green cars. The government also approved a tax incentive scheme for EV production in August. However, there have been no applicants as of October, and some experts and OEMs asked to review the direction and the timing of the policy. According to a media report in December, the Thai government will include plug-in-hybrid vehicles (PHVs) in new EV production incentives that are to be unveiled in the near future.



Related Reports:
Thailand Market Analysis: SUV market healthy, further recovery expected in 2017 (Sep. 2016)



Exports to the Middle East decrease significantly for the period January-October 2016

  For the period January-November 2016, Thai vehicle production increased 2.7% y/y to 1.81 million units. Nonetheless, sales in Thailand fell 2.3% y/y to 680,000 units due to a last minute surge in demand at the end of 2015 and limited buying power because of auto loans under the first-time car buyer scheme. Exports also decreased 1.4% y/y to 1.1 million units owing to a global downturn. The ratio of exports to production declined to 61%.

  By vehicle type, production of passenger cars for the period January-October 2016 increased 5.9% y/y. Among passenger cars, production of "eco-cars", specifically designated as fuel-efficient, small cars by the Thai government, increased only 2.3% y/y, while output of other small cars (with displacement of 1500 cc or less) besides eco-cars rose 13.4%. Production of commercial vehicles (CVs) increased only 0.3%. Out of all the CVs built, output of 1-ton pickup trucks excluding passenger pickup vehicles (PPVs) decreased 6.6% y/y and the ratio of these vehicles to total production shrank to 46.6%. This decline came in spite of the fact that sales of 1-ton pickup trucks increased in Thailand, and is attributed to a drop in exports of the vehicles to the Middle East. Other CVs including PPVs, vans, medium- and heavy-duty CVs increased 41.6% y/y.

  Vehicles built in Thailand are mainly exported to Asia (including Japan), the Middle East, and Oceania. While exports to both Asia and Oceania for the period January-October 2016 increased around 10% y/y, respectively, exports to the Middle East fell 26.6%. The Middle Eastern market has been slow due to the declining price of oil and minerals. Although exports to Europe increased significantly last year owing to a market recovery, exports to the region dropped 1.1% y/y this year due to Britain's decision to leave the E.U. Exports to the U.S. increased 44.7% following a significant increase in the previous year.



Thai automobile production
by vehicle type Exports from Thailand by
destination



Thai vehicle production, exports, and sales

(Units)

2013 2014 2015 2016
(Estimate)
2017
(Plan)
Jan.-Nov.
2015
Jan.-Nov.
2016
Production 2,457,057 1,880,007 1,913,002 1,950,000 2,000,000 1,760,310 1,808,625
Exports 1,119,205 1,128,102 1,204,895 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,118,245 1,102,395
Sales in Thailand 1,330,678 881,832 799,632 750,000 800,000 698,168 681,930
(Exports/Production) 45.9% 60.0% 63.0% - - 63.5% 61.0%
Source: for production and exports, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI); for retail sales in Thailand, Toyota Motor Thailand (TMT)
(Notes) 1. Sales in Thailand include imported vehicles.
2. 2016 estimates and 2017 plans are based on FTI's forecasts released in December 2016.



Thai automobile production by vehicle type

(Units)

2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan.-Oct.
2015
Jan.-Oct.
2016
Passenger cars 957,623 1,071,076 742,678 760,688 642,707 680,384
Commercial vehicles 1,496,094 1,385,981 1,137,329 1,152,314 954,433 957,457
(of which:) 1t pickup truck 1,291,641 1,220,096 999,733 966,919 817,695 763,866
Total production 2,453,717 2,457,057 1,880,007 1,913,002 1,597,140 1,637,841
Ratio of 1t pickup trucks 52.6% 49.7% 53.2% 50.5% 51.2% 46.6%
(Note) The 1t pickup truck category doesn't include passenger pickup vehicle (PPV). The ratio of 1t pickup trucks indicates the percentage of 1t pickup trucks to total production including passenger cars.


Market leader Toyota's share declines to 31.7% due to weak sales of new Hilux

  As for sales in Thailand by vehicle type for the period January-November 2016, passenger cars remained stagnant, dropping 5.3% y/y, and sales of CVs fell 0.5% y/y. Among CVs, sales of 1-ton pickup trucks (including PPVs) increased 3.9% while other types including SUVs and medium- and heavy-duty CVs declined 15.2%.

  Japanese OEMs command nearly 90% of the Thai market. For the period January-November 2016, Toyota, the market leader, saw its market share decline from 33.2% in 2015 to 31.7% due to weak sales of the new Hilux Revo pickup truck and some passenger cars. Isuzu, which holds the second largest market share, expanded its share from 18.0% to 18.7% owing to strong sales of a version of the D-MAX pickup truck that was facelifted and launched in 2015. Honda, which is the third largest automaker, enjoyed an increase in its market share from 14.0% to 14.2% that was driven by brisk sales of the new Civic and compact SUVs including the BR-V and HR-V.

  Toyota plans to produce and sell the C-HR, a new SUV released at the end of 2016 in Japan, in Thailand starting in 2018. The automaker intends to rejuvenate its sales with plans to redesign passenger cars including the Camry and Yaris in 2018-2019.

Thai automobile sales by
vehicle type Automobile market share in
Thailand


Thai government approves EV promotional package; implements commercial vehicle tax incentive scheme

  Following a coup in May 2014, Thailand has been ruled by the military government. A draft of a new constitution was approved in a referendum in August 2016 and a general election to return the country to democratic rule was scheduled to be held at the end of 2017. However, the King of Thailand passed away in October 2016, and the new King who acceded to the throne in December requested changes to the draft constitution. As a result, the general election may be postponed to mid-2018. Although the Thai economy was expected to recover soon after the new King's smooth accession to the throne, it may take more time for the economy to recover due to the delayed return to democratic rule.

  The Thai government created a roadmap for EV popularization in March 2016 in order to make the country a hub for production of EVs by aiming to attract foreign investments for high value-added and advanced industries and expand the use of green cars. In response to this, the Japanese government signed an agreement to provide grant aid of JPY 500 million to the Thai government for promotion of next-generation vehicles. In August 2016, the Thai government approved a tax incentive scheme for EV production that was criticized because only pure EVs are covered in the scheme. The government is expected to revise the scheme to include PHVs.

  In addition, the Thai government implemented a tax incentive scheme for CVs from November 2015 to December 2016 to improve competitiveness of local companies and stimulate the economy. According to FTI, sales of buses and trucks for the period January-October 2016 increased 4.3% y/y.



Thai government's EV promotional package: a roadmap to promote adoption of EVs

The Thai government's National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved a roadmap to promote the widespread adoption of EVs in March 2016. According to the plan, there are to be 1.2 million EVs on the road in Thailand by 2036 with at least 700-800, or even 1,000 charging stations.
First phase Relevant infrastructure, taxation, laws, regulations, and service fee structures will be investigated. The Bangkok Mass Transit Authority introduced a fleet of 200 electric buses within 2016. The Provincial Electricity Authority plans to operate an electric bus route between the Suvarnabhumi International Airport and Pattaya.
Second phase The deployment of EVs will be expanded from 2017 to 2019. The private sector will be allowed to take part in public transportation businesses.
Third phase The promotion of EV passenger cars will begin, and the government will offer support for developing basic infrastructure and smart grid systems.



Thai government's tax incentive scheme for EVs

The Thai cabinet approved a tax incentive scheme for EV production formulated by the Thai Board of Industries (BOI) in August 2016. Under this scheme, the import duty for a battery-driven electric vehicle (BEV) will be exempted for two years. During this period, should the OEM build an assembly plant for BEVs in Thailand, and start producing any important components like batteries or motors within two years of the opening of the production facility, import duties for the components will be exempted.
There have been no applicants for this tax incentive scheme as of October 2016. Some analysts criticized it because the timing for making Thailand a hub for the EV production is too early, and the plan will have a negative influence on OEMs and suppliers. According to a media report in December, the BOI will revise EV production incentives to include PHVs.



Japanese government provides JPY 500 million for promotion of next-generation vehicles

In March 2016 the Japanese government signed an agreement to provide grant aid to the Thai government for promotion of next-generation vehicles. Japan will provide JPY 500 million for purchasing next-generation vehicles including Japan-built hybrid and electric vehicles. The Japanese intend to aid Thailand in the development of its economy and society, and improve familiarity with and create constant demand for next-generation vehicles. The Japanese government also aims to promote Japan's initiatives for next-generation vehicles and to support Japanese companies in expanding their businesses in other countries.



Thai government's tax incentive scheme for CVs

Thai government applied a tax incentive scheme for CVs to improve the competitiveness of local companies. Under the scheme, companies in Thailand that invested in CVs for the period from November 3, 2015 to December 31, 2016 were allowed to deduct up to double their depreciation costs from income when calculating corporate taxes. Hino Motors estimates that this resulted in sales of trucks and buses for 2016 in Thailand increasing 10% y/y to 30,000 units. In 2017, sales will be flat at 30,000 as this tax program is no longer in effect.


Honda starts operations at new plant while integrating production lines at existing plant

  Honda built a third plant in Thailand and started production of the new Civic in March 2016. The new plant has an annual production capacity of 120,000 units (with two shifts). It started operations with one-shift and will switch to two-shifts at the end of January 2017. Meanwhile, both of production lines at its existing Ayutthaya plant are operating on one shift as of January 2017. This year, the automaker decided to move the models assembled on the first line to the second line and operate it on two shifts. Operations of the first line will be suspended.

  Mazda invested in its engine plant to increase the annual production capacity from 30,000 units to 100,000 units. The company not only plans to sell these engines in Thailand, but will also export them to other Asian countries.

  BMW also expanded its Thai plant to increase the annual production capacity by 25% to 20,000 units. The automaker is now manufacturing all of its models locally and lowered prices. SAIC Motor-CP began building a new plant with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units in November 2016. After completion, the new plant will replace an existing plant with an annual production capacity of 50,000 units.

(A table titled "Major OEMs' plants in Thailand" is provided at the end of this report.)



Honda starts operations at new plant while integrating production lines at its Ayutthaya plant

Start of operations at Prachinburi plant In March 2016, Honda started production of the new Civic at its new Rojana Industrial Park automobile plant in Prachinburi province. The automaker invested JPY 53 billion to establish an annual production capacity of 120,000 units at the facility, which employs 1,400 people. Operations at the resin part and engine plant started in October 2015 and February 2016, respectively. Honda is building the Civic and Jazz at the new plant for domestic sales as well as export. The plant is projected to operate on two shifts starting at the end of January 2017 owing to strong sales of the vehicles is produces.
Latest production technology Honda adopted the latest production technology for its Prachinburi plant. It uses a flowing-style cell production line called the Assembly Revolution Cell (ARC) line. Four workers ride on a transport unit that has a car body and set of parts loaded onto it. The workers assemble parts while moving together with a car body. Compared to conventional production processes, this new method requires less unnecessary actions and significantly improves production efficiencies.
Integration of production lines at Ayutthaya plant The Ayutthaya plant has two production lines, each of which provides an annual production capacity (on two shifts) of 150,000 units. However, is currently operating on only one shift. The first line is producing the Brio and Brio Amaze, while the second line makes the Accord, Civic, Mobilio, CR-V, HR-V, and BR-V. Honda plans to operate the second line on two shifts starting in March 2017 to improve production efficiencies and assemble models that are currently produced on the first line. Workers for the first line will be transferred to the second line in two shifts. Operation of the first line will be suspended.



Mazda to stop development and production of pickup trucks and increase capacity for engines

Production of pickup trucks to switch to SUVs In July 2016, Mazda announced that it will end development and production of pickup trucks. The automaker will stop production of the BT-50 within a few years at AutoAlliance (Thailand), a 50/50 joint venture plant with Ford. The plant will continue to manufacture pickup trucks for Ford. Instead of pickup trucks, Mazda will build about 40,000 SUVs to tap growing worldwide demand. Mazda will procure the D-MAX from Isuzu Motors as its pickup model.
Annual production capacity of engines to increase to 100,000 units In August 2016, Mazda revealed that it will invest JPY 22.1 billion in its powertrain production plant in Chon Buri Province to increase the annual production capacity of engines from 30,000 units to 100,000 by the first half of 2018. While the company is currently manufacturing the SKYACTIV-D1.5 and SKYACTIV-G1.3 for the Mazda2 (sold as the Demio in Japan) that is built at the AutoAlliance (Thailand), production of the SKYACTIV-G2.0 will be added for export to Malaysia and Vietnam. This powertrain plant will be Mazda's first engine export hub located outside Japan.



Ford starts production of Ranger pickup truck at its own plant

In October 2016, Ford started production of the Ranger pickup truck at its Ford Manufacturing Thailand (FMT) plant to meet an increase in demand in Asia-Pacific region. The automaker is producing the Ranger at AutoAlliance (Thailand), a joint-venture plant with Mazda. It will maintain its status as the main plant for the Ranger in the Asia-Pacific region. Since production at the plant is expected to reach the limits of its capacity soon, Ford invested USD 186 million in FMT to produce the Ranger.



BMW expands annual production capacity to 20,000 units at Rayong Plant to increase exports

Enhancement of annual production capacity BMW invested THB 1.1 billion in its Rayong plant to expand the facilities there as a part of its global strategy released in September 2015. The automaker raised the annual production capacity by 25% to 20,000 units at the beginning of 2016. As producing its lineup locally led to reduced production costs, BMW lowered the prices of its all models by 10-20% in July 2016.
Expansion of exports In the future, BMW plans to export 10,000 vehicles a year from Thailand. Mainly the BMW X3 and X5 will be exported to China and Malaysia.



Mercedes-Benz extends contract production agreement; partner's plant to be expanded

In December 2016, Mercedes-Benz extended a contract production agreement with Thonburi Automotive Assembly Plant (TAAP), its local partner, for 12 years. As a result, it was reported that there was no longer a possibility that the automaker would build its own plant. In 2016, TAAP is expected to produce a record 9,000 units for Mercedes-Benz, and the company plans to expand its plant for the automaker to link up with a neighboring plant.



SAIC Motor-CP starts building new plant with annual production capacity of 300,000 units

SAIC Motor-CP announced that it started building a new plant in Thailand in November 2016. The new plant will be built on a 700,000 square meter site in the Hemaraj Eastern Seaboard Industrial Park, Chon Buri Province and, on completion, will replace the existing plant that began operations in 2014. The new plant is expected to be a hub for right-hand drive MG brand vehicles in the Southeast Asian region. The automaker's annual production capacity eventually will increase from 50,000 units at the existing plant to 300,000 units at the new plant. The total investment reportedly amounted to THB 30-40 billion.


Recent activities of Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Subaru

Toyota launches Sienta and Innova Crysta MPVs

New Sienta Toyota launched the new Sienta, a three-row seven-seat MPV, in Thailand in August 2016. The Sienta was released for the first time in the country. The model comes with a 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine mated to a CVT. It is priced between THB 750,000 and 865,000. Toyota aims to sell 1,700 units by the end of 2016. The model is produced at its Karawang Plant in Indonesia.
New Innova Crysta Toyota redesigned the Innova MPV and released it as the Innova Crysta in September 2016. It is the third model of the IMV series, which was strategically designed for sale in emerging markets. (The first model is the Hilux Revo pickup truck released in May 2015, and the second model is the Fortuner SUV launched in October of the same year.) The sales target for 2016 was set at 600 units. The Innova Crysta is produced at Toyota's Karawang Plant in Indonesia.



Toyota to cut 800 workers under voluntary redundancy program due to sluggish sales

Toyota launched a voluntary redundancy program to cut around 800 subcontractors due to reduced production in July 2016. Toyota employs 16,477 workers in Thailand, 40% of whom are subcontractors. For the period January-May 2016, Toyota's sales fell 13.4% y/y to 87,715 units, while total sales decreased only 2.0% y/y to 302,581 units. Toyota's performance has been stagnant due to slow sales of the Hilux Revo pickup truck and passenger cars.



Honda releases new Civic and BR-V

New Civic Honda released the tenth-generation Civic in March 2016. The model is priced between THB 869,000 and 1,199,000. It is the first model to be produced at the new Prachinburi Plant. Honda aims to sell 25,000 units per year in Thailand. The automaker plans to produce more than 60,000 units per year, and to export 20,000 units of assembled vehicles and 20,000 sets of knockdown parts.
BR-V In January 2016, Honda launched the BR-V, a new SUV based on the Brio compact car for emerging countries. The model features SUV-like styling and handling, a spacious cabin with three rows and seven seats, and a variety of utilities. It was developed mainly for the Asian markets. The BR-V comes with a 1.5-liter i-VTEC engine mated to a six-speed manual transmission or a CVT. Initially, the SUV was imported from Indonesia, but production was transferred to the Ayutthaya 1 Plant in March 2016.



Mitsubishi launches new Pajero Sport and supplies pickup trucks to FCA

New Pajero Sport Mitsubishi redesigned the Pajero Sport midsize SUV for the first time in seven years and started sales in the fall of 2015. The SUV is produced at its Laemchabang Plant. The automaker expanded sales of the Pajero Sport to Australia, ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Russia. Eventually, the new SUV will be distributed in more than 90 countries like the previous model. The new Pajero Sport adopted a 2.4-liter MIVEC diesel turbo engine combined with a new eight-speed automatic transmission.
Supplying Triton to FCA Mitsubishi started supplying Triton/L200 pickup trucks which are produced at its Laemchabang Plant, to FCA. FCA has been distributing the pickup truck as the Fiat Professional Fullback since June 2016 in Europe and Latin America. It will also sell it as the Ram 1200 in the Middle East starting in 2017.



Subaru sells Malaysian-built Forester in Thailand

In the spring of 2016, Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI), the manufacturer of Subaru automobiles, started sales of a Malaysian-built Forester in Thailand. The Forester is the Subaru brand's flagship SUV. In its Mid-Term Management Vision "Prominence 2020" that was released in May 2014, FHI laid out initiatives to build a strong business foundation in Southeast Asia. Introduction of the locally-produced Forester is a key part of its management vision.



Nissan starts production of X-Trail HV and adds testing function to R&D center

Production of X-Trail HV Nissan started production of a hybrid (HV) version of the X-Trail at its Samutprakarn Plant in October 2015 and started accepting orders in November of the same year. This plant is the first of Nissan's global facilities to produce the X-Trail HV outside Japan. The HV version was previously imported from a plant in Kyushu, Japan.
Building R&D test center In April 2016, Nissan announced plans to build an R&D test center in Thailand. The automaker will invest THB 1 billion in its R&D Center established in 2003 and expand its function to include product quality assurance and prototype evaluation tests. The new center will provide services for five ASEAN members: Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. In addition, it will test the vehicles Nissan will export from its Thai plant to more than 90 countries.


Recent activities of GM, BMW, and VW

GM releases new Colorado mid-size pickup truck

GM released the new Chevrolet Colorado mid-size pickup truck in July 2016. It comes with an upgraded 2.5-liter Duramax four-cylinder turbo diesel engine and features advanced equipment including remote start, a Siri Eyes Free voice recognition system, Apple CarPlay, lane departure warning, front collision alert, and front/rear parking assist systems. The model is priced between THB 594,000 and 1,068,000.



BMW to establish international procurement base in Bangkok

It was reported that BMW established its first Southeast Asian international procurement base in Bangkok in August 2016. The automaker plans to procure Thai-made parts meeting its quality standards and ship them to 30 or more plants in 14 countries



VW moves ASEAN parts procurement base from Malaysia to Thailand

It was reported that VW relocated its ASEAN parts procurement base from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to the site of its Scania Plant in Thailand, and that it started operations in August 2016. VW shipped EUR 136 million worth of auto parts from ASEAN to Germany in 2015, up 21% y/y. Half of them were supplied from Thailand.


Commercial vehicle manufacturers: recent activities of Beiqi Foton Motor and Dongfeng CV

Beiqi Foton Motor starts sales of trucks and pickup trucks; plans to expand production capacities

Launch of Aumark brand trucks Beiqi Foton Motor, a CV manufacturer and subsidiary of the BAIC Group, launched the Aumark brand light-duty truck in Thailand in September 2016. The number of dealers was raised to 25 at the end of 2016 and will be expanded to 60 by the end of 2017. Production of the trucks is contracted to Bangchan General Assembly Co (BGAC), a local production company.
Release of Tunland pickup In December 2016, Beiqi Foton Motor launched the new Tunland pickup truck. The model delivers high performance with the turbo diesel engine from U.S.-based Cummins, transmission from Germany-based Getrag, electronic components and ABS system from Germany-based Bosch, all-wheel drive system from U.S.-based Borg Warner, and drive shaft and gear from U.S.-based Dana. Prices for a single-cab version start from THB 500,000.
Plans to expand plant In December 2016, Beiqi Foton Motor was reported to have plans to expand its Thai plant in a few years. In the first phase, the company will invest THB 500-600 million in the plant operated by BGAC, its contract manufacturer, to increase the annual production capacity to 10,000 units. In the second phase, it will invest THB 1 billion to build a second plant with a view to export its products to Australia.



Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles to enter Thai heavy-duty truck and bus market

Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles (a joint venture between Dongfeng Motor Group and AB Volvo) plans to enter Thailand's heavy-duty truck and bus market. The CV maker plans to develop Thailand as a hub in ASEAN for right-hand-drive trucks and buses. Following establishment in 2015 of DongSheng Motor Thailand, a sales and service joint venture in the country, it expects to sell 200 units in 2016 and 500 units in 2017. The company aims to increase its market share in the Thai truck and bus market to 5-10% by 2025.


(Appendix)

Major OEMs' plants in Thailand

Plant Annual production capacity
(1,000 units)
Production volume
(1,000 units)
(2015)
Models being produced
Toyota Motor Thailand (TMT) Samrong 230 632 Toyota Hilux Vigo, Hilux Revo (from May 2015)
Ban Pho 220 Toyota Hilux Vigo, Fortuner, Hilux Revo (from May 2015)
Gateway 1 220 Toyota Camry, Camry HV, Vios, Corolla, Wish, eco-car (Yaris) (Production of the Prius was discontinued at the end of September 2015)
Gateway 2 80
Toyota Auto Works Samutprakarn 20 Toyota Hiace
Hino Motors Mfg. (Thailand) Bang Pakong 20 11 Hino trucks & buses
Nissan Motor (Thailand) Samutprakarn 1 220 140 Nissan Navara, Teana, Sylphy, Pulsar, X-TRAIL, H-TRAIL HV (from October 2015), eco-car (March, Almera/Latio)
Samutprakarn 2 150 NP300 Navara
Honda Automobile (Thailand) Ayutthaya 1 150 94 Honda City, Jazz (Fit), Jazz HV, Mobilio, eco-car (Brio, Brio Amaze), BR-V (from December 2015)
Ayutthaya 2 150 77 Civic, Civic HV, Accord, Accord HV, CR-V, HR-V
Prachinburi 120 -

Civic (Assembly operations started in March 2016)

Operation of resin and engine parts plants started in October 2015 and February 2016, respectively.

Mitsubishi Motors (Thailand) Laemchabang 1 90 194 Lancer EX, Pajero Sport
Laemchabang 2 220 Pajero Sport, Triton (L200)/Fiat Fullback/Ram 1200 (2016-)
Laemchabang 3 200 136 eco-car (Mirage, Attrage)
Isuzu Motors Company (Thailand) Samrong 260 239 Isuzu D-Max, mu-X, light-/medium-duty trucks
Gateway 140 Isuzu D-Max, mu-X, commercial vehicles, pickups (knockdown kits for export)
Suzuki Motor (Thailand) Rayong 78→100 (plan) 54 eco-car (Swift, Celerio, Ciaz)
AutoAlliance (Thailand) Rayong Pickup: 140
CKD kits: 55
149 Ford Ranger, Everest, Mazda BT-50
Passenger cars: 120 82 Mazda2, Mazda3, CX-3
Ford Thailand Manufacturing Rayong 150 32 Ford Focus, EcoSport, Fiesta, Ranger (from 2016)
General Motors (Thailand) Rayong 180 51 Chevrolet Sonic, Cruze, Captiva, Colorado, Trailblazer
BMW Mfg. (Thailand) Rayong 20 9 BMW 1 Series, 3 Series, 5 Series, 7 Series, X1, X3, X5, MINI Countryman
VW (based on media reports) 0→100 (plan) (Under review)
Thai-Swedish Assembly Samutprakarn Volvo: 4.5 Volvo: 0.7 Volvo trucks and buses
UD: 20 UD: 1.7 UD Quester (heavy-duty trucks)
Tan Chong International Bangkok 20 Fuso: 0.6 Fuso trucks, Beiqi Foton Motor's Auman brand trucks
Thonburi Automotive Assembly Plant Samutprakarn 19 8 M-Benz C-Class, E-Class, S-Class, M-Class, PHV(C, S, GLE)
15 0.2 Tata Xenon (Super Ace under review)
Y.M.C. Assembly Bangkok 24 N/A Mitsuoka models, VW models
SAIC Motor - CP Rayong 1 50→0 (Plan) 5 MG6, MG3, MG5, MG GS (from March 2016)
Rayong 2 0→300 (Plan) (Construction started in November 2016.The new plant will replace the existing one on completion.)
Source: OEMs' websites, press releases, and various media reports


Production forecast by LMC Automotive: Thai production expected to reach 2.37 million units in 2020

(LMC Automotive, November 2016)

Thai light vehicle
production forecast by group

  Production in Thailand in H1 2016 increased by 6.7% y/y, driven by strong sales of SUVs including the new Honda BR-V and Mazda CX-3 as well as the all-new versions of the Toyota Fortuner, Ford Everest and Mitsubishi Pajero Sport. However, overall production in H1 2016 was significantly higher than both demand (-0.1% y/y) and exports (+3.5% y/y), which led to a rise in inventory levels in the country. As a result, LMC Automotive's current output projection for 2016 stands at 1.94 million units. In 2017, a slight increase of 0.7 % is expected for production volumes. After 2018, production is forecasted to increase steadily and reach 2.37 million units in 2020.

  In Thailand, sales increased by a mere 0.5% y/y in the first nine months of this year, dampened by political uncertainty and high household debt. Sales in Q4 are expected to be disrupted by the death of King Bhumibol in October and the official mourning period. Thailand's long-term sales outlook is clouded by prolonged political uncertainty.

  Among OEMs, Toyota initiated a voluntary redundancy scheme for 800 contract workers due to its recent poor sales and low export volumes. Toyota's passenger vehicles have been losing momentum to rival models in the region, and the brand has suffered from its lack of presence in the all-important compact and sub-compact SUV segments. According to LMC Automotive's forecast, Toyota's production is expected to decline by 10% in 2016, but to increase over the next four years and reach 0.8 million units in 2020. Production of the new C-HR compact crossover SUV will be added starting in 2018. Output of the Camry, Corolla, Vios, and Yaris, all of which will be redesigned in 2018-2019, is also projected to boost overall production.



Thai light vehicle production forecast by make (LMC Automotive)

(Units)

SALES GROUP GLOBAL MAKE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total 1,872,677 1,891,874 1,937,423 1,951,516 2,132,693 2,301,261 2,369,210
Toyota Group Toyota 732,027 632,887 568,328 612,719 718,155 780,838 795,267
Hino 0 255 1,196 121 108 117 108
Toyota Group sub-total 732,027 633,142 569,524 612,840 718,263 780,955 795,375
Renault-Nissan Group Mitsubishi 323,179 330,170 359,046 339,109 328,193 349,472 348,469
Nissan 128,240 139,951 113,914 142,036 181,843 184,070 185,349
Renault-Nissan Group sub-total 451,419 470,121 472,960 481,145 510,036 533,542 533,818
Isuzu Motors Isuzu 234,673 229,752 241,359 246,729 245,159 278,262 218,407
Ford Group Ford 147,202 138,473 164,705 152,225 186,287 204,938 237,528
Honda Group Honda 143,685 170,598 213,264 194,689 205,706 204,490 216,721
Mazda Motors Mazda 69,205 121,130 135,616 121,964 124,080 143,468 118,682
Isuzu 0 0 0 0 0 0 91,943
Mazda Motors sub-total 69,205 121,130 135,616 121,964 124,080 143,468 210,625
Suzuki Group Suzuki 23,297 54,371 54,818 57,976 65,264 61,263 59,693
General Motors Group Chevrolet 55,410 51,077 49,844 45,975 44,438 59,209 61,649
BMW Group BMW 6,779 8,617 16,253 19,570 15,948 16,921 17,750
MINI 363 390 455 412 456 467 489
BMW Group sub-total 7,142 9,007 16,708 19,982 16,404 17,388 18,239
Daimler Group Mercedes-Benz 4,638 7,830 8,395 10,805 10,418 10,391 9,740
Fuso 37 1 56 92 98 108 100
Daimler Group sub-total 4,675 7,831 8,451 10,897 10,516 10,499 9,840
SAIC Group MG 0 4,538 8,096 3,439 3,467 3,493 3,494
Roewe 1,322 559 382 561 230 257 274
SAIC Group sub-total 1,322 5,097 8,478 4,000 3,697 3,750 3,768
Dongfeng Motor Dongfeng 1,895 1,103 1,229 1,389 1,606 1,971 1,992
Tata Group Tata 725 172 467 1,705 1,237 1,526 1,555
Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Production Forecast (November 2016)
(Note) 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.



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Keywords
Thailand, Toyota, Honda, SUV, D-Max

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