GM: Strategies for the future of mobility

Investing in autonomous vehicles and ride-sharing services



2017 GMC Acadia (North American International Auto Show 2016)
2017 GMC Acadia (North American International Auto Show 2016)

 With the dust settling on its recall issues, GM reported improved profits in 2015, and has maintained strong results in the first quarter of 2016. The continued success of its core automotive business is enabling the automaker to invest in advanced technology and innovations that will help shape the future of personal mobility.

 The fields that are important for leading this transformation include connectivity, autonomous driving, car-sharing and electrification. In 2016, GM launched a new car-sharing service under its own brand, and entered into a strategic alliance with the ride-sharing company Lyft. Moreover, GM revealed a plan to acquire Cruise Automation which is developing autonomous vehicle technology.

 GM’s 2015 global unit sales increased by 0.3% year-over-year (y/y) to 9.96 million units, marking a record high for the third consecutive year. Strong sales of pickups and SUVs in North America and high demand for luxury cars and SUVs in China offset stagnant sales in South America and Russia. While revenue fell by 2.3% y/y, adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) increased from USD 6.5 billion the previous year to USD 10.8 billion and net income grew from USD 2.8 billion to USD 9.7 billion. Both adjusted EBIT and net income hit record highs. While unit sales decreased by 1% in the first quarter of 2016, the company maintained strong results as revenue increased by 4.3%, and adjusted EBIT-adjusted and net income improved significantly compared to the first quarter of 2015.

 GM expects that its results will improve in 2016 driven by significant vehicle launches, improved efficiency in core operations, and a continued emphasis on growing its adjacent businesses. The adjusted EBIT for the year is expected to improve, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be USD 5.25-5.75 compared to USD 5.02 in 2015.

Related report
North American International Auto Show 2016: U.S. OEMs (Feb. 2016)
Beijing Motor Show 2016 (Part 1) European OEMs: Automakers Strengthen China-Exclusive Model Lineups (May 2016)

Investment in advanced technologies to shape the future of personal mobility

 GM anticipates that new technologies like connectivity and autonomous driving, as well as businesses including car- and ride-sharing services, will be essential to future personal mobility, and as a result is currently investing in these two areas. In January 2016, the company launched its own Maven brand car-sharing service. The automaker also made an investment in the ride-sharing company Lyft and entered into a strategic alliance with the company to create a network of on-demand autonomous vehicles. In March 2016, GM announced plans to acquire Cruise Automation, which develops and tests autonomous vehicle technology, in order to enhance its own development capability.

Investment in car and ride-sharing services and autonomous vehicle technology

Launch of the Maven brand  In January 2016, GM launched a new car-sharing service called Maven. The automaker will offer a variety of on-demand mobility services under the brand. It has over 40 dedicated employees who have experience at companies like Google, Zipcar, and Sidecar. The company GM has started initial operations in Michigan, U.S.A., and will expand its service to other areas, including New York City, Boston, Chicago and Washington D.C.
Strategic alliance with Lyft  In January 2016, GM announced plans to invest USD 500 million in Lyft, the second largest company in the U.S. ride-sharing market after Uber, and the establishment of a long-term strategic alliance between the two companies to create an integrated network of autonomous vehicles. The details of the alliance will include joint development of an on-demand autonomous vehicle network, and rentals of GM’s vehicles to Lyft drivers.
 GM and Lyft have launched their rental program of regular vehicles in Chicago through the aforementioned Maven in March 2016 and are expanding service to other cities. The two companies reportedly have a plan to test self-driving Chevrolet Bolt electric taxis on public roads within the year. GM President Ammann was said to agree with Lyft on the view that “the first large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles will be in this kind of on-demand ride-share platform.”
Acquisition of Cruise Automation  GM announced plans to acquire Cruise Automation based in San Francisco in March 2016 to add its software talent and accelerate GM’s development of autonomous vehicle technology. Founded in 2013, Cruise develops and tests autonomous vehicle technology. After the acquisition, Cruise will be an independent unit of the autonomous vehicle development team that GM recently established. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2016.

GM’s sales performance: European sales outperform industry growth in first quarter of 2016

 GM’s global unit sales increased by 0.3% y/y to 9.96 million units (including sales of Chinese joint ventures such as SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling) in 2015, marking a record high for the third consecutive year. Successful new vehicle launches in North America and China more than offset the challenging conditions in South America and Russia. GM’s global market share decreased slightly to 11.2% in 2015 from 11.4% in 2014.

 By region, sales in North America increased 5.8% y/y thanks to pickups including the Chevrolet Silverado, Chevrolet Colorado, and GMC Sierra, as well as SUVs such as the Chevrolet Equinox. Sales in other regions including China grew by 3.4% y/y. While GM launched 13 redesigned and refreshed models and sales of SUVs increased in China, total sales in the country remained at the same level as the previous year. Meanwhile, sales in Europe including Russia and sales in South America decreased by 6.4% and 26.5% y/y, respectively.

 By brand, Chevrolet sales in North America increased by 6% y/y with an expanded market share in the U.S. Buick set a global sales record driven by record sales in China. Cadillac grew globally by 8% with record sales in China. GMC’s global sales were up 11%, marking its sixth consecutive year of gains. Opel/Vauxhall achieved its best sales result in four years despite its strategic departure from the Russian market.

 GM’s global sales in the first quarter of 2016 decreased by 1.0% y/y to 2.37 million units. North American sales increased by 1.1% while sales in Europe climbed by 6.5%, outperforming industry growth. At the same time, sales in South America fell by 26.1%. Sales in other regions decreased by 0.5%,while China saw growth of 0.2%, driven by boosted sales of SUVs and luxury segment Cadillac vehicles.

GM’s unit sales by region

(1,000 units)
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan.-Mar.
North America (GMNA) 2,925 3,019 3,234 3,413 3,612 790 799
Europe (GME) 1,751 1,611 1,557 1,256 1,176 292 311
South America (GMSA) 1,066 1,051 1,037 878 645 180 133
Other Regions (GMIO) 3,281 3,616 3,886 4,378 4,525 1,137 1,131
Other regions
2,542 2,832 3,156 3,613 3,612 962 964
Global total 9,024 9,297 9,715 9,925 9,958 2,399 2,374

Source: GM press releases on Feb. 3 and April 22, 2016

GM’s Q1 2016 performance: net income reaches USD 2 billion, breaking even in Europe

 While GM’s revenue in 2015 decreased by 2.3% y/y to USD 152.4 billion, both adjusted EBIT and net income hit record highs. Adjusted EBIT grew 66.5% to USD 10.8 billion, and net income increased by more than three times to USD 9.7 billion. The margin of adjusted EBIT also marked a record with 7.1%, compared to 4.2% in 2014. For total adjusted EBIT, North America generated USD 11 billion to offset losses in Europe and South America.

 In March 2015, GM announced a USD 5 billion share repurchase program, and a capital allocation framework to determine capital investment principles. The automaker revealed its policy to return cash to shareholders and focus on high returns. GM plans to disclose its return on invested capital (ROIC) as a management index, with an objective of 20% or higher. ROIC for the year of 2015 was 27.2%, well over the target.

 Revenue in the first quarter of 2016 increased by 4.3% y/y to USD 37.3 billion. Adjusted EBIT grew by 27.5% to USD 2.7 billion, and net income doubled to USD 2 billion. The company’s results improved in all regions, including breakeven performance in Europe and significantly reduced loss in South America. ROIC for the first quarter of 2016 increased 9 percentage points y/y to 28.5%.

 When GM announced its 2015 financial results, the automaker revealed its plan to maintain profitability in an economic downturn by proactively managing the business cycle moving forward. The details of the plan include streamlining costs, improving capital deployment, maintaining profitability in the U.S. market at a scale of around 10 to 11 million vehicles, and taking advantage of opportunities to profit that are not affected by the model cycle (finance, after-sales services, OnStar, the globalization of the Cadillac brand, and more).

 GM expects improvements in its results in 2016, driven by major vehicle launches, enhanced efficiency in its core operations, and expansion of adjacent businesses. Adjusted EPS is expected to be USD 5.25-5.75, compared to USD 5.02 in 2015. Adjusted automotive free cash flow (FCF) is projected to increase to USD 6 billion. (In 2015, adjusted automotive FCF was USD 2.2 billion due to recall-related cash outlays of USD 2.5 billion.)

Announcement of USD 5 billion share repurchase program and cash allocation framework (March 2015)

In March 2015, GM and Harry J. Wilson, a former member of the Auto Industry Task Force set up by President Obama that restructured GM who now leads an investment group, agreed to a repurchase of USD 5 billion in GM shares. The repurchase will conclude by the end of 2016. GM and the investment group announced that Wilson agreed to withdraw both his nomination to stand for election to the Board of Directors and his shareholder proposal under the condition that the capital allocation framework announced by GM on the same day will be upheld.
GM’s capital allocation framework encompasses three core principles.
(1) Investment in businesses that yield a high return: Targeting ROIC of 20% or higher
(2) Maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet: a target cash balance of USD 20 billion
(3) Returning cash to shareholders: return all unnecessary free cash flow to shareholders

GM’s consolidated results

(in millions of USD)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan.-Mar.
Revenue 150,276 152,256 155,427 155,929 152,356 35,712 37,265
   Automotive 148,869 150,293 152,100 151,092 145,922 34,364 35,195
North America (GMNA) 90,233 89,910 95,099 101,199 106,622 24,676 26,463
Europe (GME) 26,757 20,689 20,110 22,235 18,704 4,449 4,681
South America (GMSA) 16,877 16,700 16,478 13,115 7,820 2,092 1,343
Other regions (GMIO) 24,761 22,954 20,263 14,392 12,626 3,112 2,679
EBIT-adjusted 8,304 7,859 8,578 6,494 10,814 2,082 2,655
North America (GMNA) 7,194 6,470 7,461 6,603 11,026 2,182 2,296
Net income
(attributable to common stockholders)
7,585 4,859 3,770 2,804 9,687 945 1,953

Source: GM press releases dated Feb. 3 and April 22, 2016
(Note) Special items during 2015 had a favorable impact of USD 1.5 billion on full-year net income, compared to an unfavorable (USD 2.4 billion) impact in 2014. Among these special items was a net gain of USD 3.9 billion from the reversal of certain valuation allowances on deferred tax assets, charges (USD 1.4 billion) related to the ignition switch recall, and a loss (USD 0.6 billion) due to devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar.

New model launch plans in North America

2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV (North American International Auto Show 2016)
2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV (North American International Auto Show 2016)

 In North America, where demand for SUVs is rising, GM will launch three SUV models in 2016: the compact Buick Envision, the midsize GMC Acadia and the Cadillac XT5 midsize luxury SUV. Cadillac’s new flagship sedan, the CT6, and Chevrolet’s global car, the Cruze, are also expected to be launched. GM plans to release the Chevrolet Bolt, an electric vehicle (EV) that offers more than 200 miles of range on a full charge, by the end of 2016.

GM’s new model launch plans for North America in 2016

Model Launch schedule Outline
Buick Cascada Beginning of 2016  A two-door convertible. This is a Buick version of the Opel Cascada, which has been on the market since 2013. It is imported from Poland and will be the first Buick convertible offered in the United States in 25 years. The Cascada is powered by a 1.6-liter four-cylinder turbo engine.
Cadillac CT6 January 2016  Cadillac’s new flagship sedan is underpinned by its all-new Omega architecture. The model features three types of engines: a 2.0-liter inline-four turbo, 3.6-liter V6, or 3.0-liter V6 twin-turbo engine. The CT6 is manufactured at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant in Michigan. A PHV version will be launched in the future.
New Chevrolet Cruze April 2016  The sedan version launched in April, and is to be followed by a hatchback scheduled for release in the fall. The new Cruze, which comes with a 1.4-liter turbo engine, is produced at the Lordstown plant in Ohio. A clean diesel engine (a 1.6-liter diesel engine approved for use with 20% biodiesel blends (B20)) will be available in 2017.
Cadillac XT5 April 2016  This midsize luxury crossover SUV is a successor to the SRX. It is equipped with a 3.6-liter V6 engine mated to an eight-speed automatic transmission. The XT5 is manufactured at the Spring Hill plant in Tennessee.
New GMC Acadia Spring 2016  This midsize crossover SUV adopts the C1XX architecture. It comes with a 2.5-liter four-cylinder or 3.6-liter V6 engine mated to a six-speed automatic transmission. The Acadia is produced at the Spring Hill plant in Tennessee.
Buick Envision Mid-2016  This compact crossover SUV is positioned between the Buick Encore and Enclave. It is a sibling of the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain. The Envision is produced at SAIC-GM’s Yantai plant in China and imported to North America. The model comes with a 2.0-liter four-cylinder turbo engine combined with a six-speed automatic transmission.
New Buick LaCrosse Summer 2016  A midsize sedan powered by a second-generation 3.6-liter V6 engine mated to a new eight-speed automatic transmission. It is manufactured at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant in Michigan.
Chevrolet Bolt Late 2016  A subcompact EV that uses an LG Electronics motor (200 hp, 266 lb-ft) and LG Chem lithium-ion battery (capacity: 60 kWh). It will offer more than 200 miles of range and be produced at the Orion plant in Michigan.
New GM models launched in North America in 2015
Chevrolet Trax January 2015  This compact crossover SUV is a sibling of the Buick Encore and Opel Mokka. It had been sold in 140 countries except for the United States. The Trax, which comes with a 1.4-liter four-cylinder turbo engine, is imported from Korea.
New Chevrolet Volt Fall 2015  This plug-in-hybrid (PHV) compact car is powered by a 1.5-liter four-cylinder direct-injection engine, two motors, and a lithium-ion battery (18.4 kWh). It offers 53 miles of EV range and a total driving range of 420 miles. The Volt is produced at the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant.
New Chevrolet Camaro November 2015  The first vehicles delivered to customers were sport coupes in November 2015, followed by convertibles in early 2016. Three types of engines are offered, including a 2.0-liter turbo, 3.6-liter V6 and 6.2-liter V8 engine. Each engine is available with a six-speed manual or eight-speed automatic transmission. While the previous model was assembled at the Oshawa plant in Canada, the new model is produced at the Lansing Grand River plant in Michigan, the U.S.
New Chevrolet Malibu December 2015  This midsize sedan increases interior space by stretching the wheelbase 101 mm, while at the same time reducing weight 136 kg. It comes with a 1.5-liter or 2.0-liter four-cylinder turbo engine. The HV version shares a large number of components with the Volt PHV. However, the Malibu HV’s lithium-ion battery has a capacity of only 1.5 kWh. It is manufactured at the Fairfax plant in Kansas.
New Chevrolet Spark End of 2015  This four-seat subcompact car comes with a new 1.4-liter four-cylinder ECOTEC engine that produces 98 hp, up 16% from the previous model. It will be offered in more than 40 markets around the world including the U.S. The Spark is produced at the Changwon plant in South Korea.

New growth strategy for China (2016-2020)

 In China, GM rolled out 13 new and refreshed models in 2015. With unit sales almost unchanged from the previous year at 3.61 million units, the automaker regained the top market share at 14.9%. In March 2016, GM unveiled a new strategy for China, where further growth is expected. The automaker plans to address growing demand in the country with a strong focus on SUVs, MPVs, and luxury vehicles.

GM’s growth strategy for China (2016-2020) (announced on March 21, 2016)

Market outlook  According to GM’s forecast, China’s vehicle market is expected to see an increase of 5 million units by 2020, representing growth of about 3-5% annually. GM anticipates that 4.2 million units, an 80% share of that growth, will be SUVs, MPVs, and luxury vehicles. The industry’s luxury segment is expected to generate annual growth of more than 10% during that period.
New model plans  GM plans to roll out more than 60 new and refreshed models in China by 2020, including 13 in 2016. About 40% of the new vehicles will be SUVs and MPVs, while GM’s Cadillac luxury brand will introduce 10 new models.
Advanced technologies  GM plans to release more than 10 new energy vehicles under the Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and Baojun brands by 2020. They will include the Shanghai-built Cadillac CT6 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, which will go on sale later in 2016.
 GM plans to offer internet connectivity using its OnStar onboard telematics service and other technologies on all Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac models in China by the end of 2020.

GM establishes production bases in China

Cadillac plant  SAIC-GM started operations at its Cadillac plant in Shanghai in January 2016. The investment in the first phase of construction amounted to RMB 8 billion for building a plant on a 477,000 square meter site. The plant includes a body shop, a paint shop, a general assembly shop, and a high-speed test track. It has an annual production capacity of 160,000 units. The plant started production with the Cadillac CT6 luxury sedan.
Second phase of Baojun plant construction completed  In August 2015, SAIC-GM-Wuling completed the second phase of construction at the Baojun plant in Liuzhou, Guangxi, and the plant started production of the Baojun 560 SUV. The joint venture also started building a new energy vehicle production facility. The investment in the second phase of construction totaled RMB 8 billion. The plant has an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles, 400,000 engines, and 200,000 new energy vehicles.
Wuhan plant  SAIC-GM started operations at its Wuhan plant in January 2015. The joint venture completed the first phase of construction with an investment of RMB 7 billion. The Wuhan plant includes press, welding, paint, and assembly shops, and has an annual production capacity of 240,000 units. The plant started production of the new Buick Excelle. Following the completion of the first phase, SAIC-GM began the second phase of construction with an investment of RMB 7.5 billion to double the annual production capacity at the plant. The plant expansion is expected to start operations in 2017.

GM invests USD 5 billion in all-new family of vehicles for global growth markets

Joint development of new family of vehicles with SAIC Motor  GM’s Chevrolet unit announced a plan to invest USD 5 billion in development of an all-new vehicle family for global growth markets in July 2015. The automaker intends to save development cost by jointly developing the core architecture and engine with SAIC Motor. Vehicles will be produced and sold in Brazil, China, India, and Mexico, and exported for sale to other growth markets. The program is expected to grow to more than two million vehicles annually with the first vehicles scheduled to be releases as the 2019 model year.
USD 1 billion to be invested in India  As part of the investment of USD 5 billion mentioned above, GM plans to spend USD 1 billion for India. The automaker will start production of 10 new Chevrolet models in India by 2020. GM also plans to increase the annual production capacity at the Talegaon plant in Maharashtra from 130,000 vehicles to 220,000 by 2025. The automaker expects that more than 30% of annual production will be for markets outside India. Meanwhile, GM plans to stop production at the Halol plant in Gujarat in March 2017.

GM restructures operations in Thailand and Indonesia; downsizes business in Russia

Asia: GM restructures operations

Thailand  GM announced plans to restructure operations in Thailand in February 2015. The automaker intends to concentrate resources on popular pickup trucks and SUVs while it discontinues less competitive models. As a result of this, the Sonic passenger car and Spin MPV will be phased out of the portfolio at the end of their current model year life cycle. Meanwhile, the Colorado pickup, Captiva and Trailblazer SUVs, and Cruze passenger car will continue to be on the market. The Rayong plant stopped production of the Sonic in June 2015. GM also informed the Thailand Board of Investment that it will withdraw its participation in the second phase of the Eco-Car program.
Indonesia  GM ended production at the Bekasi plant in West Java, Indonesia at the end of June 2015. GM Indonesia transformed into a sales and after-sale service company to continue selling Chevrolet vehicles. The Bekasi plant used to produce the Spin compact MPV for Indonesia and other ASEAN markets. 500 positions at the Bekasi plant were affected by the discontinuation of production.
 At the same time, GM and SAIC Motor announced on February 2, 2015 that their joint venture SAIC-GM-Wuling plans to build a new plant in Indonesia to produce the Wuling brand vehicles. Construction of the new plant reportedly started near Jakarta in January 2016.

Russia: GM downsizes operations with the Opel brand exiting

 In March 2015, GM revealed plans to downsize operations in Russia because of projections that the mid- and long-term demand growth is unlikely as a result of economic sanctions by Western countries and low crude oil prices. The St. Petersburg plant halted production in mid-2015; the Opel brand exited the market at the end of 2015; and the contract assembly of Chevrolet vehicles at GAZ, a Russian vehicle manufacturer, was discontinued in the same year.
 As a result, the only model that GM is producing in Russia is the Chevrolet Niva, an all-wheel drive SUV that is assembled at the Togliatti plant of the GM-AvtoVAZ joint venture. GM recorded net special charges of USD 600 million in the first quarter of 2015 as a result of the decision to downsize operations in Russia.

Partnership with Honda for FCVs; collaborating with Isuzu for light truck supply

Partnership with Honda

Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)  GM and Honda entered into a partnership for FCVs in 2013 with plans to launch a jointly developed model in 2020. The two companies are now examining vehicle mass-production technology and joint production of major components including the fuel cell stack.
Expanding the partnership  In January 2016, Honda’s President Hachigo revealed his intent to expand the partnership with GM to the area of autonomous vehicle technologies, including information technology and artificial intelligence. If this happens, their partnership will cover all key technologies for development for future vehicles from green cars to autonomous driving.

Cooperation with Isuzu

Supplying light trucks to GM  GM and Isuzu agreed to collaborate in the commercial vehicle business in the U. S. in June 2015. Isuzu will supply N-Series (sold as the Elf in Japan) light trucks under the Chevrolet brand to GM starting in 2016. The trucks will be distributed by Chevrolet dealers. Meanwhile, GM continues to supply a 6.0-liter V8 gasoline engine and six-speed transmission to Isuzu.
Strengthening of relations in South Africa  In July 2015, GM and Isuzu signed a framework agreement to enhance their relationship in South Africa. The main objective of this agreement is to ensure that the production operation of light commercial vehicles in the country is well positioned, and to provide a strong portfolio of Chevrolet, Opel, and Isuzu vehicles for both domestic and export markets.

Recall issue: compensation investigations completed; Government requires USD 900 million penalty

 GM has been pressed to address the recall issue related to an ignition switch defect since the beginning of 2014. In August 2015, the company’s Compensation Facility completed investigations of all claims. In September, GM reached a settlement with the U.S. Attorney’s Office, which required a USD 900 million penalty. However, a number of negotiations on compensation and lawsuits by the victims against the company are still in process.

Ignition switch recall

Recall issue  GM announced a recall of 1.62 million units of 2003-2007 MY vehicles due to ignition switch defects at the beginning of 2014. GM was criticized because it did not recall the vehicles or reveal necessary information to the U.S. authorities and customers immediately after the defects were found. Due to delay in announcing the recalls, more accidents were caused. It was suspected that GM may have made a systematic attempt to conceal the defects.
Internal investigation and compensation facility  GM appointed Mr. Valukas, a lawyer and former US attorney, to conduct an internal investigation, and established the Ignition Compensation Claims Resolution Facility. The Facility was given the right to judge compensation independently of GM, and started to accept victims’ claims in August 2014.
30.4 million vehicles recalled in 2014  On January 2, 2015, GM announced that there would be a total of 84 recalls during 2014 (including the ignition switch recall), which amounted to 30,430,000 vehicles worldwide. During 2013 there were 23 recalls, which amounted to 757,000 vehicles.
124 claims eligible for death indemnities  GM’s Compensation Facility announced on August 3, 2015, that it had completed investigations of all claims and determined that 124 claims for death indemnities were eligible for compensation from the program (GM initially reported 13 deaths). From August 1, 2014 to January 31, 2015, the Facility accepted a total of 4,342 claims, of which 474 were for death indemnities. While the Facility prepared 319 reconciliation offers, 227 were accepted, 6 were rejected, and 86 are still being processed.
Government requires USD 900 million penalty  In September 2015, GM reached a settlement in the form of a Deferred Prosecution Agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s Office regarding the automaker’s handling of the ignition switch defect. GM was also required to pay a USD 900 million financial penalty associated with the Agreement. The government’s decision to defer prosecution was based on the actions GM has taken, including conducting a swift internal investigation and establishing an independent victim compensation program. GM recorded a charge of USD 900 million in the third quarter of 2015 for the payment of the penalty.
USD 575 million for settlement of civil actions  In September 2015, GM announced that it had settled two civil actions against the company related to the 2014 recalls, (including those related to the ignition switch defect). One of the settlements covers approximately 1,380 individual death and personal injury claimants. They include more than half of the personal injury plaintiffs who have lawsuits pending in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. As a result of these settlements, GM recorded a charge of USD 575 million in the third quarter of 2015.

Production forecast by LMC Automotive: GM’s global production to reach 8.35 million units in 2019

(LMC Automotive,April 2016)

 According to LMC Automotive’s forecast released in April 2016, GM’s global production is expected to be 7.88 million units in 2016, up 3.0% year-over-year (y/y). After 2017, the automaker’s production will continue to rise and reach 8.35 million units in 2019, a 6.0 % increase compared to 2016. While North America will remain GM’s largest production base throughout the forecast horizon, growth is also expected to come from both Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

 In North America, 2016 production is expected to finish up by 5.9% y/y. While some volume will be lost with production of the Buick Verano ending in October, output will get a boost due in part to redesigns of the Chevrolet Camaro, Cruze, and Malibu. Chevrolet is expected to reintroduce the Blazer midsize SUV, beginning in Q3 2018. Volume for the 5-passenger Blazer is projected to be in the mid-80,000 unit range. In Mexico, GM started filling the unused capacity of the Ramos Arizpe plant in 2016 when it added Cruze hatchback production, which will be followed by additional production of the Equinox in 2017 after its redesign. Ramos Arizpe will also be the source-plant for the GEM (Global Emerging Markets) platform vehicles, which will add well over 100,000 units of output to the plant once all vehicles are on line.

 Growth in Western Europe is being supported by GM building the Astra SUV at PSA’s Sochaux plant in France, with production beginning in 2016.

 Meanwhile, GM’s largest volume expansion will come in the Asia-Pacific, driven by output at SAIC GM’s new plant in Wuhan, and its new Cadillac plant in Shanghai, where production of the Cadillac CT6 began in January 2016. The Wuhan plant, which started building the Buick Excelle XT/GT (or Astra) in February 2016, is expected to produce a new compact car in 2016 and a new SUV in 2017. Therefore, capacity at the Wuhan plant is projected to double to 480,000 units a year in 2017 to support output of GM’s new models.

GM's light vehicle production forecast by make and country (LMC Automotive, April 2016)

(Number of vehicles)
COUNTRY GLOBAL MAKE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GM by make Chevrolet 5,485,811 5,240,334 4,649,595 4,726,540 4,912,478 4,956,284 5,086,253
Opel 1,174,836 1,184,848 1,182,196 1,270,965 1,266,993 1,273,821 1,245,464
Buick 516,031 566,000 740,002 800,397 741,865 752,460 868,258
GMC 571,304 609,777 683,381 686,740 630,113 699,046 688,240
Cadillac 256,912 265,623 253,103 293,687 330,258 373,809 405,945
GM 47,772 24,784 43,069 27,767 34,456 33,893 34,067
Isuzu 21,281 13,726 11,136 7,428 11,652 13,254 15,884
Holden 42,109 32,798 30,350 41,757 37,443 4,731 9,894
Suzuki 3,446 3,907 1,104 0 0 0 0
Wuling 20,861 9,787 6,078 5,961 0 0 0
Daewoo 59,709 59,979 47,224 17,055 0 0 0
GM total 8,200,072 8,011,563 7,647,238 7,878,297 7,965,258 8,107,298 8,354,005
USA Chevrolet 1,381,058 1,473,568 1,490,596 1,676,858 1,551,633 1,796,803 1,827,998
GMC 359,013 362,041 423,910 450,960 413,579 506,686 506,452
Cadillac 109,197 100,507 88,339 181,526 196,764 220,748 245,583
Buick 173,173 164,310 139,092 136,208 107,205 116,148 111,407
Holden 0 0 0 0 0 4,731 9,894
USA sub-total 2,022,441 2,100,426 2,141,937 2,445,552 2,269,181 2,645,116 2,701,334
China Chevrolet 999,730 1,077,853 809,128 780,329 844,846 851,251 916,818
Buick 319,092 374,441 578,794 642,045 623,695 636,312 755,271
Opel 210,603 235,553 286,983 291,013 236,794 217,645 226,814
Cadillac 21,397 43,578 53,147 82,207 114,610 134,548 142,167
Holden 122 0 0 0 0 0 0
China sub-total 1,550,944 1,731,425 1,728,052 1,795,594 1,819,945 1,839,756 2,041,070
Mexico Chevrolet 457,205 458,317 485,949 555,332 689,809 587,076 548,603
GMC 99,611 129,463 137,339 123,885 185,803 192,360 181,788
Buick 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,580
Cadillac 89,385 100,251 90,575 7,991 0 0 0
Mexico sub-total 646,201 688,031 713,863 687,208 875,612 779,436 731,971
Korea Chevrolet 754,016 617,699 599,040 609,638 628,764 584,867 541,374
GM 24,930 6,196 13,847 9,704 9,153 8,027 8,182
Buick 3,693 5,335 2,955 0 0 0 0
Korea sub-total 782,639 629,230 615,842 619,342 637,917 592,894 549,556
Brazil Chevrolet 664,599 548,997 364,976 317,222 350,701 374,248 404,248
Spain Opel 283,891 302,625 275,640 270,904 279,925 312,808 323,057
Chevrolet 0 20,874 83,933 85,811 70,174 63,757 19,372
Spain sub-total 283,891 323,499 359,573 356,715 350,099 376,565 342,429
Germany Opel 360,561 365,410 258,936 283,729 277,852 284,135 283,136
Canada Chevrolet 458,851 428,858 416,638 347,814 325,135 223,911 209,685
Cadillac 35,886 20,470 20,390 21,481 18,431 17,909 17,469
GMC 112,680 118,273 122,132 111,895 30,731 0 0
Buick 20,073 21,914 19,161 22,144 10,965 0 0
Canada sub-total 627,490 589,515 578,321 503,334 385,262 241,820 227,154
Uzbekistan Chevrolet 164,140 170,261 108,954 72,421 146,307 176,352 181,184
GM 22,842 18,588 29,222 18,063 25,303 25,866 25,885
Daewoo 59,709 59,979 47,224 17,055 0 0 0
Uzbekistan sub-total 246,691 248,828 185,400 107,539 171,610 202,218 207,069
Poland Opel 102,535 87,038 169,330 196,203 197,969 159,150 123,666
Chevrolet 0 0 0 0 0 0 65,179
Poland sub-total 102,535 87,038 169,330 196,203 197,969 159,150 188,845
UK Opel 117,245 121,403 146,231 188,939 201,261 183,419 180,381
India Chevrolet 57,827 34,345 19,917 86,892 114,964 114,159 157,452
Isuzu 12,189 13,274 11,136 7,428 11,652 13,254 15,884
Wuling 20,861 9,787 6,078 5,961 0 0 0
India sub-total 90,877 57,406 37,131 100,281 126,616 127,413 173,336
France Opel 0 0 0 0 34,820 83,359 83,305
Thailand Chevrolet 108,700 55,410 51,077 43,331 45,411 45,331 59,480
Russia Chevrolet 174,386 123,385 43,646 32,040 26,065 36,019 45,703
Opel 49,011 28,447 1,733 0 0 0 0
Cadillac 1,047 817 331 0 0 0 0
Russia sub-total 224,444 152,649 45,710 32,040 26,065 36,019 45,703
Colombia Chevrolet 35,653 45,042 40,751 35,947 41,973 43,175 44,625
South Africa Opel 20,526 17,900 19,105 16,050 16,335 19,487 25,105
Chevrolet 6,595 8,383 5,428 5,483 4,779 5,027 5,033
South Africa sub-total 27,121 26,283 24,533 21,533 21,114 24,514 30,138
Ecuador Chevrolet 28,382 36,854 29,329 13,702 20,319 20,217 21,097
Suzuki 3,446 3,907 1,104 0 0 0 0
Isuzu 6,649 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ecuador sub-total 38,477 40,761 30,433 13,702 20,319 20,217 21,097
Argentina Chevrolet 111,355 86,931 57,378 42,795 21,182 18,765 20,569
Vietnam Chevrolet 4,615 5,368 7,088 6,368 7,445 7,227 7,782
Venezuela Chevrolet 22,515 4,501 4,759 2,048 3,176 4,091 4,892
Isuzu 2,443 452 0 0 0 0 0
Venezuela sub-total 24,958 4,953 4,759 2,048 3,176 4,091 4,892
Kazakhstan Chevrolet 9,566 6,712 956 1,203 2,781 3,296 4,426
Belarus Chevrolet 0 0 2,204 598 756 712 733
Cadillac 0 0 321 482 453 604 726
Opel 0 15 0 0 0 0 0
Belarus sub-total 0 15 2,525 1,080 1,209 1,316 1,459
Turkey Opel 17,515 20,402 24,238 24,127 22,037 13,818 0
Indonesia Chevrolet 21,669 10,484 4,405 0 0 0 0
Ukraine Chevrolet 73 2,205 0 0 0 0 0
Australia Holden 41,987 32,798 30,350 41,757 37,443 0 0
Chevrolet 24,876 24,287 23,443 10,708 16,258 0 0
Australia sub-total 66,863 57,085 53,793 52,465 53,701 0 0
Hungary Opel 12,949 6,055 0 0 0 0 0
Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Production Forecast (April 2016)"
(Note) 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
For more detailed information or inquiries about forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

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