Japanese OEMs aim for record high sales in FY2013

Weaker yen and a strong US market are key to reaching 24.8 million unit sales target

2013/06/10

Summary

 With correction of the yen appreciation, recovering Japanese economy, improved US market and increased sales in Asia, Japanese OEMs plan to achieve the record high sales and profits in FY2013. They will also make the largest investment in history in facilities and R&D, aiming for future growth.

 The ten Japanese OEMs plan to renew the record sales for the second year with a total of 24.83 millions automobiles in FY2013, up 6.2% year-on-year basis. In North America, the seven Japanese passenger car OEMs plan a total sales of 7.0 million units, up 6.7% y/y and in Asia and other regions, they plan to increase the combined sales to 10.7 million units, up 8.9% y/y. The Japanese OEMs, except for Mazda and Mitsubishi, aim to break their records. Toyota Group plans to exceed the 10 million units mark with 10.10 million units.

 The ten OEMs' combined target for the FY2013 consolidated revenues is JPY 57.5 trillion, up 11.1% y/y, approximately JPY five trillion less than the record high of 62.3 trillion JPY, down 8%. Nissan, Honda, Daihatsu, FHI and Hino aim to break their records.

 Each Japanese OEM plans to increase profit in FY2013 and the total operating profit of the ten OEMs is projected to increase by 34.9% y/y to JPY 3.92 trillion, approximately JPY 600 billion less than the record profit achieved in FY2007.

 The average assumed exchange rate of the Japanese OEMs is JPY 92.3 to the U.S. dollar, 10 yen lower than the previous year's, which is expected to raise the combined operating profit to 1,071.9 billion yen. As of the end of May 2013, the exchange rate hovers around JPY 101 to the dollar. If the rate stays at this level, it is highly likely that the business results outlook will be revised upward.


 According to LMC Automotive Forecast in April 2013, Japanese light vehicle sales in 2013 will fall by only a small amount to just under 5.2 million units. The global research company has been raising its Japanese sales forecast every month, starting from 4.7 million units estimated for January. LMC Automotive points out as follows : "LMC also notes that risks to the forecast are currently on the upside - the market may outperform expectations. In Japan, sales continue to be buoyed by the rising expectation that the "Abenomics" will lift the economy out of two decades of stagnation. The selling rate (SAAR) averaged a solid 5.2 million units in Q1 2013. Sales are projected to surge higher ahead of the scheduled consumption tax hike in April 2014."

Japanese OEMs' FY2012 outlooks (figures in shaded cells represent record high)

Automobile sales volume
(1,000 units)
Consolidated revenue
(100 million yen)
Operating profit
(100 million yen)
Exchange
rate of yen
to dollar
FY2012
Results
FY2013
Plan
(Reference)
FY2007
results
FY2012
Results
FY2013
Plan
(Reference)
FY2007
results
FY2012
Results
FY2013
Plan
(Reference)
FY2007
results
FY
2013
Plan
Sensi-
tivity
(100
million
yen)
Toyota 8,871 9,100 8,913 220,641 235,000 262,892 13,208 18,000 22,704 90 400
Nissan 4,533 4,889 3,698 96,296 103,700 108,242 5,235 6,100 7,908 95.0 150
Honda 4,014 4,430 3,925 98,779 121,000 120,028 5,448 7,800 9,531 95 140
Suzuki 2,660 2,803 2,406 25,783 28,000 35,024 1,446 1,500 1,494 90 40
Mazda 1,053 1,120 1,240 22,053 24,800 34,758 539 1,200 1,621 90 25
Mitsubishi 987 1,169 1,337 18,151 22,700 26,821 674 1,000 1,086 95 20
Daihatsu 983 1,026 945 17,649 18,000 17,026 1,330 1,350 652 93 12-14
FHI 724 752 597 19,130 20,500 15,723 1,204 1,800 457 90 75
Isuzu 534 567 509 16,556 19,200 19,248 1,308 1,800 1,096 95 N/A
Hino 155 175 112 15,414 16,200 13,686 651 850 459 90 N/A
Total 23,376 24,830 22,625 517,389 574,900 622,736 29,062 39,200 45,897 92.3 N/A

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.

 

Related report: Japanese OEM global production marks a record high in 2012 (April, 2013)
New vehicle sales in Japan expected to drop by 11.7% in 2013 (February, 2013)


The Japanese OEMs plan to renew consolidated automobile record sales for second consecutive year with 24.83 million units

 The ten Japanese OEMs plan to sell a total of 24.83 million automobiles on a consolidated basis in FY2013, up 6.2% from the FY 2012 results, renewing the record for the second straight year. Although the government's new car purchase subsidies ended in Japan, they plan a total of 4.832 million consolidated unit sales in Japan, only 0.3% drop from the previous year, thanks partly to upturn in economy. For the FY2013 consolidated unit sales overseas, their plans total approx. 20 million units, up 7.9% y/y.

 Looking at the OEMs respectively, those except for Mazda and Mitsubishi aim to break their records. Toyota plans to sell 9.1 million units on a consolidated basis and to exceed the 10 million units mark with 10.10 million units as the Toyota Group including its non-consolidated Chinese JV. Both Honda and Mitsubishi plan a great increase in sales, 10.4% y/y (4.43 million units) and 18.4% y/y (1.17 million units) respectively with emphasis on Japanese and Asian markets.

 By region, the seven Japanese passenger car OEMs plan a total sales of 6.983 million  units, up 6.7% y/y, in North America, the same seven million units' level as prior to the economic crisis. In Asia and other regions, they plan to increase the sales to 10.695 million units in total, up 8.9% y/y.

 The ten OEMs' FY2012 total sales greatly increased to 23.376 million units, up 14.0% y/y, the record high exceeding the result prior to the economic crisis in FY2007. Sales expanded in Japan due to the government subsidies as well as in North America and Asia excluding China. Seven OEMs renewed their records: Nissan for the third consecutive year, Hino for the second consecutive year, and Honda, Suzuki, Daihatsu, FHI, and Isuzu.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated unit sales of automobiles

(1,000 units)
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Sales volumes of
automobiles Sales
Toyota 8,913 7,567 7,237 7,308 7,352 8,871 9,100
Nissan 3,698 3,138 3,159 3,888 4,456 4,533 4,889
Honda 3,925 3,517 3,392 3,512 3,108 4,014 4,430
Suzuki 2,406 2,306 2,350 2,643 2,560 2,660 2,803
Mazda 1,240 1,116 963 1,100 1,016 1,053 1,120
Mitsubishi 1,337 1,011 805 987 1,001 987 1,169
Daihatsu 945 945 869 893 940 983 1,026
FHI 597 555 563 657 640 724 752
Isuzu 509 401 288 408 381 534 567
Hino 112 99 83 113 129 155 175
Total 22,624 19,611 18,757 20,503 20,514 23,376 24,830
Japan Toyota 2,188 1,945 2,163 1,913 2,071 2,279 2,120
Nissan 684 576 599 573 639 620 632
Honda 615 556 646 582 588 692 825
Suzuki 673 665 622 588 596 672 660
Mazda 257 220 219 206 226 226 228
Mitsubishi 214 164 170 164 152 134 148
Daihatsu 571 587 568 527 563 602 586
FHI 209 179 171 158 172 163 156
Isuzu 74 58 42 47 54 63 63
Hino 46 35 27 30 37 44 45
Total 4,914 4,363 4,632 4,231 4,498 4,849 4,832
Oversea Toyota 6,725 5,622 5,074 5,395 5,281 6,592 6,980
Nissan 3,013 2,562 2,560 3,315 3,817 3,913 4,257
Honda 3,310 2,961 2,746 2,930 2,520 3,322 3,605
Suzuki 1,732 1,641 1,729 2,053 1,964 1,989 2,143
Mazda 983 896 744 894 790 827 892
Mitsubishi 1,123 847 635 823 849 853 1,021
Daihatsu 374 358 301 366 377 381 440
FHI 388 377 392 499 468 561 596
Isuzu 435 343 246 361 327 471 504
Hino 66 64 56 83 92 111 130
Total 17,709 15,248 14,126 16,270 16,016 18,528 19,998
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) 1. Daimler's subsidiary, Mitsubishi Fuso, and Volvo's subsidiary, UD Trucks, did not disclose their business results.
2. Toyota and Honda follow the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Mitsubishi represents Mitsubishi Motors.
3. The ten OEMs' total does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota. Consolidated unit sales include components for production.
4. Toyota plans to achieve 10.10 million total group unit sales for FY2013 including the non-consolidated JVs. the figure was 9.692  million units for FY2012.
5. The FY2013 plan of Nissan is reference values. It is calculated by adding to the FY2012 records the increase or decrease in the announced global sales volume plans. The global sales volumes are based on a retail basis which include components for production and assembled vehicles at Nissan's equity method foreign affiliates
6. Honda has changed its range of disclosed items for its unit sales from FY2012. Before FY2012, the disclosed unit sales were a sum of "(A) units sold by Honda and its consolidated subsidiaries" and "(B) sales of parts for local production at Honda's subsidiaries accounted for under the equity method of accounting," but from FY2012, only (A) is disclosed as its "consolidated unit sales." The sum of (A) and the "unit sales made by Honda's subsidiaries accounted for under the equity method of accounting" are now disclosed as the "Honda group unit sales." Honda's figure in the table above shows "Honda group unit sales," starting from the FY2011.
7. Suzuki's sales volume shows the number of Suzuki brand vehicles, excluding those supplied under the OEM agreement. The FY2012 overseas sales include some estimated values by Suzuki.
8. The FY2010 data of Mazda include 16,000 units arising from the 15-month business term of its overseas subsidiaries which changed the account settlement period.
9. Mitsubishi's sales volumes from FY2010 in the table show retail sales volumes of Mitsubishi brand cars, although the OEM has revised its method to count sales volumes since FY 2011 to count all the shipment including those supplied under the OEM agreement.
10. Daihatsu and Hino show the sales volumes of their own brand vehicles (Toyota's sales volume includes those of Daihatsu and Hino).
11. Isuzu's FY2007 data include the 15-month results of its eight overseas consolidated subsidiaries (the overseas sales volume was 385,000 units on a 12-month basis).

Seven Japanese OEMs' sales volume by region

(1,000 units)
Toyota Nissan Honda Suzuki Mazda Mitsubishi FHI Total
Japan FY2007 2,188 721 615 673 256 219 209 4,881
FY2008 1,945 612 556 665 219 168 179 4,344
FY2009 2,163 630 646 622 221 171 171 4,624
FY2010 1,913 600 582 588 206 164 158 4,211
FY2011 2,071 655 588 596 206 152 172 4,440
FY2012 2,279 647 692 672 216 134 163 4,803
FY2013 Plan 2,120 660 825 660 220 148 156 4,789
North America FY2007 2,958 1,352 1,850 N/A 406 160 210 N/A
FY2008 2,212 1,133 1,496 85 347 119 207 5,599
FY2009 2,098 1,067 1,297 41 307 88 250 5,148
FY2010 2,031 1,245 1,458 33 342 94 307 5,510
FY2011 1,872 1,404 1,323 32 372 106 309 5,418
FY2012 2,469 1,466 1,731 30 372 85 390 6,543
FY2013 Plan 2,640 1,610 1,795 3 415 100 420 6,983
Europe FY2007 1,284 636 391 N/A 327 341 86 N/A
FY2008 1,062 530 350 302 322 272 78 2,916
FY2009 858 517 249 281 239 169 39 2,352
FY2010 796 607 198 244 212 218 60 2,335
FY2011 798 713 158 223 183 218 55 2,348
FY2012 799 660 171 197 172 181 61 2,241
FY2013 Plan 830 720 185 220 200 212 54 2,421
Asia & others FY2007 2,483 1,061 1,069 N/A 374 640 92 N/A
FY2008 2,348 1,136 1,115 1,253 373 507 92 6,824
FY2009 2,118 1,301 1,200 1,407 426 532 103 7,087
FY2010 2,568 1,733 1,274 1,778 513 511 132 8,509
FY2011 2,611 2,073 1,039 1,710 486 525 104 8,548
FY2012 3,324 2,141 1,420 1,761 475 587 110 9,818
FY2013 Plan 3,510 2,310 1,625 1,920 500 709 121 10,695
Total FY2007 8,913 3,770 3,925 2,406 1,363 1,360 597 22,334
FY2008 7,567 3,411 3,517 2,305 1,261 1,066 555 19,682
FY2009 7,237 3,515 3,392 2,350 1,193 960 563 19,210
FY2010 7,308 4,185 3,512 2,643 1,273 987 657 20,565
FY2011 7,352 4,845 3,108 2,560 1,247 1,001 640 20,753
FY2012 8,871 4,914 4,014 2,660 1,235 987 724 23,405
FY2013 Plan 9,100 5,300 4,430 2,803 1,335 1,169 752 24,889
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) 1. Figures for Toyota, Honda, and Fuji Heavy Industries are based on consolidated sales volumes.
2. Nissan's figures show global sales volume (which includes vehicles assembled by its affiliates that are applicable to the equity method, using shipped parts for the production).
3. Honda's figures before FY2011 are based on unit sales. From FY2011, the figures are based on Honda group's unit sales.
4. Mazda's figures show global sales volume (representing all retailed volume under the Mazda brand).
5. The figures for Mitsubishi Motors are based on retail sales (a new counting method was introduced from the FY2010 performance).

 

 



Revenues: Nissan, Honda, Daihatsu, FHI and Hino plan to refresh their records

 The ten Japanese OEMs' targets for the FY2013 consolidated revenues total JPY 57.5 trillion , up 11.1% y/y. While their total unit sales are planned to renew the record high volume, the projected total revenue stays approximately JPY five trillion less, down 8% y/y, than the record high of JPY 62.3 trillion.

 Looking at the OEMs respectively, Honda, Daihatsu, FHI and Hino aim to rewrite their records in revenue as well. Nissan also plans to achieve the highest revenue in history under the same accounting method used in FY2012 and before. Meanwhile, Toyota plans to increase its revenues by 6.5% y/y to JPY 23.5 trillion, which is 2.8 trillion less than its record high.

 In FY2012, all the ten OEMs raised their consolidated revenues and achieved JPY 51.7 trillion in total, up 14.4% y/y. The OEMs with a large increase rate are FHI (26.1%), Honda (24.3%) and Toyota (18.7%). Notably, FHI's revenue increase rate of 26.1% almost doubled its sales volume increase rate of 13.1%, due to the improved product mix as a result of the withdrawal from the mini vehicle manufacturing.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated revenues

(JPY in 100 million)
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Revenue Toyota 262,892 205,296 189,509 189,937 185,837 220,641 235,000
Nissan (Note2) 108,242 84,370 75,173 87,731 94,090 96,296 103,700
Honda 120,028 100,112 85,792 89,368 79,481 98,779 121,000
Suzuki 35,024 30,049 24,691 26,082 25,122 25,783 28,000
Mazda 34,758 25,359 21,639 23,257 20,331 22,053 24,800
Mitsubishi 26,821 19,736 14,456 18,285 18,073 18,151 22,700
Daihatsu 17,026 16,314 15,747 15,594 16,313 17,649 18,000
FHI 15,723 14,458 14,287 15,806 15,171 19,130 20,500
Isuzu 19,248 14,247 10,809 14,155 14,001 16,556 19,200
Hino 13,686 10,695 10,235 12,427 13,146 15,414 16,200
Total 622,738 493,626 436,356 464,621 452,105 517,389 574,900
Revenue
in Japan
Toyota 61,362 54,218 57,291 53,250 56,621 55,026 N/A
Nissan 21,878 20,383 18,032 18,694 19,466 19,041 N/A
Honda 15,858 14,465 15,773 15,038 15,179 16,530 N/A
Suzuki 9,814 9,656 9,526 9,374 9,868 10,409 9,800
Mazda 8,801 6,203 5,750 5,415 5,602 5,880 5,900
Mitsubishi 4,885 3,984 3,685 3,633 3,571 3,295 4,700
Daihatsu 11,771 11,913 11,296 10,567 11,608 11,820 N/A
FHI 5,440 5,075 5,208 4,673 4,985 6,718 6,081
Isuzu 6,547 5,338 4,330 4,986 5,584 5,922 6,000
Hino 9,246 6,944 6,754 8,455 8,926 9,854 N/A
Total 134,586 119,322 119,595 115,063 120,877 122,821 N/A 
Revenue
outside
of Japan
Toyota 201,530 151,078 132,218 136,687 129,215 165,615 N/A
Nissan 86,364 63,987 57,141 69,037 74,624 77,255 N/A
Honda 104,171 85,647 70,019 74,330 64,302 82,249 N/A
Suzuki 25,210 20,393 15,165 16,708 15,254 15,374 18,200
Mazda 25,957 19,156 15,889 17,842 14,729 16,173 18,900
Mitsubishi 21,936 15,752 10,771 14,652 14,502 14,856 18,000
Daihatsu 5,255 4,401 4,452 5,027 4,705 5,829 N/A
FHI 10,284 9,383 9,079 11,132 10,186 12,411 14,419
Isuzu 12,701 8,909 6,479 9,170 8,417 10,634 13,200
Hino 4,440 3,751 3,481 3,972 4,220 5,560 N/A
Total 488,153 374,304 316,761 349,558 331,228 394,567 N/A 
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents
(Note) 1. Japan/overseas revenues represent revenues by the external customer location.
2. Nissan changes the consolidation method for its Chinese JV from proportionate consolidation to the equity method from FY2013. Nissan's financial data presented in this report are also based on the equity method (hereafter calculated in  the same way). The total revenue estimated by the previous method is JPY 11.2 trillion , the highest in history.
3. The source for Daihatsu' revenues in Japan and overseas has been changed to its financial flash reports from FY2011 figures.

 

 



Operating profit targets to total JPY 3.9 trillion with assumed exchange rate of 92.3 yen to U.S. dollar

 Each Japanese OEM plans to increase profit in FY2013 and the total operating profit of the ten OEMs is projected to increase by 34.9% y/y to JPY 3.92 trillion, which is approximately JPY 600 billion less than the record profit achieved in FY2007. The combined planned ordinary profit for FY2013 is JPY 4.03 trillion, up 36.8%, while the planned net profits for FY2013 are combined to be JPY 2.81 trillion, up 37.5%.

 Suzuki, Daihatsu, FHI, Isuzu and Hino plan to achieve the record highs in operating profit. Toyota aims to raise it by 36.3% y/y to 1.8 trillion JPY. Honda aims for 43.2% increase to JPY 780 billion and Nissan aims for 16.5% increase to JPY 610 billion.

 The FY2013 average assumed exchange rate by the Japanese OEMs is JPY 92.3 to the U.S. dollar. Toyota, Suzuki, Mazda, FHI and Hino assume a relatively high rate of 90 JPY to the U.S. dollar, while Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi and Isuzu assume JPY 95 to the U.S. dollar. The JPY-USD exchange rate sensitivity totals approx. JPY 85 billion.

 The combined FY2012 operating profit of the ten OEMs was JPY 2.91 trillion, almost doubled the previous fiscal year results. Toyota posted JPY 1.32 trillion, approximately 3.7 times larger than the year before, exceeding JPY one trillion for the first time in five years. Mazda regained profitability, while Daihatsu, FHI, Isuzu and Hino renewed their record profits. Only Nissan, which posted the highest operating profit in FY2011, reported operating loss of JPY 523.5 billion, down 4.1% y/y, due to increased sales/production costs.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated operating profits/ordinary profits/net profits

(JPY in 100 million)
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Operating profit Toyota 22,704 (4,610) 1,475 4,682 3,556 13,208 18,000
Nissan 7,908 (1,379) 3,116 5,375 5,458 5,235 6,100
Honda 9,531 1,896 3,637 5,697 2,313 5,448 7,800
Suzuki 1,494 769 794 1,069 1,193 1,446 1,500
Mazda 1,621 (284) 95 238 (387) 539 1,200
Mitsubishi 1,086 39 139 403 637 674 1,000
Daihatsu 652 382 407 1,034 1,155 1,330 1,350
FHI 457 (58) 274 841 440 1,204 1,800
Isuzu 1,096 217 110 882 974 1,308 1,800
Hino 459 (194) 11 289 375 651 850
Total 45,897 (3,410) 9,640 19,187 14,184 29,062 39,200
Current profit Toyota 24,372 (5,604) 2,914 5,632 4,328 14,036 18,900
Nissan 7,664 (1,727) 2,077 5,378 5,351 5,293 6,450
Honda 8,958 1,617 3,361 6,305 2,574 4,888 7,800
Suzuki 1,569 797 938 1,225 1,306 1,556 1,650
Mazda 1,485 (187) 46 369 (368) 331 970
Mitsubishi 857 (149) 130 389 609 939 900
Daihatsu 666 395 438 1,122 1,282 1,481 1,500
FHI 454 (46) 224 822 373 1,006 1,750
Isuzu 1,223 152 114 913 1,029 1,417 1,900
Hino 410 (304) (19) 251 346 669 810
Total 46,583 (5,147) 9,804 21,033 15,202 29,466 40,320
Net profit Toyota 17,179 (4,369) 2,094 4,081 2,835 9,621 13,700
Nissan 4,823 (2,337) 424 3,192 3,414 3,424 4,200
Honda 6,000 1,370 2,684 5,340 2,114 3,671 5,800
Suzuki 803 274 289 452 539 804 900
Mazda 918 (715) (65) (600) (1,077) 343 700
Mitsubishi 347 (549) 48 156 239 380 500
Daihatsu 349 221 212 526 651 814 820
FHI 185 (699) (165) 503 385 1,196 1,100
Isuzu 760 (269) 84 516 913 965 1,150
Hino 222 (618) (30) (100) 163 477 600
Total 31,015 (7,294) 5,393 13,640 9,362 20,404 28,050
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents
(Note) 1. The Current Profit data of Toyota and Honda shows respective pre-tax current profits since they adopt the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
2. Nissan's profits plans estimated by the previous method are JPY 700billion for operating profit, JPY 665 billion  for current profit and JPY 420 billion for net income.
3. Honda revised its method of depreciation for its tangible fixed assets (excluding operating lease assets) from a fixed percentage method to a straight-line method from FY2012. As a result, the net profit for FY2012 increased by JPY 35.7 billion  from the previous method.

Exchange rate of yen to dollar and euro by ten Japanese OEMs

Yen
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Sensitivity
(JPY in 100 million)
FY2012 FY2013
Plan
US Dollar Toyota 114 101 93 86 79 83 90 350 400
Nissan 114.4 100.7 92.9 85.7 79.1 82.9 95.0 170 150
Honda 114 101 93 86 79 84 95 160 140
Suzuki 114 101 93 86 79 83 90 40 40
Mazda 114 101 93 86 79 83 90 35 25
Mitsubishi 115 101 92 85 79 82 95 20 20
Daihatsu 114 101 92 85 80 84 93 12-14 12-14
FHI 116 102 93 86 79 82 90 65 75
Isuzu 115 101 91 85 79 82 95 N/A N/A
Hino 114 101 93 86 79 82 90 N/A N/A
Average 114.4 101.1 92.6 85.7 79.1 82.8 92.3 N/A N/A
Euro Toyota 162 144 131 113 109 107 120 50 40
Nissan 161.6 144.1 131.2 113.1 109.0 106.8 122.0 0 0
Honda 162 142 130 114 108 108 120 10 5
Suzuki 160 144 131 113 109 107 120 N/A N/A
Mazda 162 144 131 113 109 107 120 12 15
Mitsubishi 162 144 130 113 111 105 125 7 10
Daihatsu 161 152 131 110 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FHI N/A 147 132 114 108 106 120 4 3
Isuzu N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hino N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Average 161.5 145.1 130.9 112.9 109.0 106.7 121.0 N/A N/A
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents
(Note) 1. If an OEM announced multiple figures for the exchange rate, the rate used for sales is included in the table above.
2. The exchange rate sensitivity shows value of the impact of 1 JPY change in the JPY/USD exchange rate on operating profit.
3. Suzuki's exchange rate sensitivity is calculated by converting all the currencies to USD.

 

 



Factors of increased operating profit plans: JPY 1.1 trillion exchange rate fluctuations, JPY 400 billion sales fluctuations and JPY 400 billion cost reduction

 The ten OEMs' combined FY2013 outlook in operating profit is JPY 1,013.7 billion larger than the FY2012 results. The factors for the expected increase are: JPY 1,071.9 billion of "changes from exchange rate fluctuation," JPY 401.6 billion of "changes in sales" and JPY 420.9 billion of "cost reduction and etc." The factors for the expected decrease are: JPY 610.6 billion increase in "overhead, R&D costs and etc." and JPY 270.1 billion increase in "other" factors.

 The ten OEMs' combined FY2012 operating profit amounted to JPY 2, 906.2 billion, JPY 1,487.7 billion more than the year earlier. "Changes in sales" accounted for JPY 1,077.4 billion increase, "cost reduction and etc." accounted for JPY 942.6 billion  increase and "changes from exchange rate fluctuation" accounted for JPY 257.4 billion increase. Increased "overhead, R&D costs and etc." accounted for JPY 700 billion decrease.

Factors to cause increase/decrease in operating profits of Japanese OEMs

(JPY in 100 million)
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Total Operating profit 45,897 (3,410) 9,640 19,187 14,184 29,062 39,200
Changes in operating profits 2,571 (49,306) 13,050 9,547 (5,003) 14,877 10,137
Changes in Sales 6,260 (26,333) (8,774) 15,132 1,518 10,774 4,016
Impact from exchange fluctuation 863 (15,604) (8,479) (7,193) (6,575) 2,574 10,719
Cost reduction etc. 3,111 (2,416) 10,226 5,347 2,153 9,426 4,209
Overhead, R&D costs, etc. (5,849) (4,348) 12,615 (3,449) (2,226) (7,000) (6,106)
Others (1,814) (605) 7,462 (290) 127 (897) (2,701)
Toyota Operating profit 22,704 (4,610) 1,475 4,682 3556 13,208 18,000
Changes in operating profits 317 (27,314) 6,085 3,207 (1,126) 9,652 4,792
Operation/sales 2,900 (14,800) (3,700) 4,900 1,500 6,500 800
Cost improvements 1,200 0 5,200 1,800 1,500 4,500 1,600
Financial business N/A N/A 2,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Impact from exchange fluctuation 0 (7,600) (3,200) (2,900) (2,500) 1,500 4,000
Miscellaneous expenditures (3,302) (4,791) 4,700 (300) (1,000) (3,000) (1,608)
(thereof:) R&D cost (681) 548 1,787 (250) (500) (200) N/A
(thereof:) Facility cost (997) (904) 378 1,200 300 200 N/A
(thereof:) Labor cost (602) 1,088 627 (400) (1,000) (700) N/A
(thereof:) Others (1,022) (5,523) 1,908 (850) 200 (2,300) N/A
Others (481) (122) 385 (293) (626) 152 N/A
Nissan
(Note1)
Operating profit 7,908 (1,379) 3,116 5,375 5,458 5,235 6,100
Changes in operating profits 353 (9,287) 4,495 2,259 83 (223) 865
Impact from exchange fluctuation (162) (2,230) (1,625) (1,475) (1,700) 302 2,250
Sales volume/mix 750 (5,252) 269 4,331 2,236 (572) 800
Purchase cost, etc. 882 (1,342) 2,154 1,058 845 1,904 1,600
Production cost N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (537) N/A
Sales finance N/A N/A N/A 295 498 2 (150)
Reserve for loss of leasing N/A (918) 1,417 N/A N/A N/A N/A
R&D cost (15) N/A 645 (185) (331) (370) N/A
Sales cost (381) N/A 271 (1,915) (1,513) (535) (1,900)
Effect on equity method N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (900)
Others (721) 455 1,364 150 48 (417) (835)
Honda Operating profit 9,531 1,896 3,637 5,697 2,313 5,448 7,800
Changes in operating profits 1,012 (7,634) 1,741 2,060 (3,384) 3,134 2,351
Difference from sales fluctuation/mix 1,700 (2,477) (2,465) 3,222 (1,551) 2,934 1,316
Impact from exchange fluctuation 376 (2,695) (1,675) (1,376) (1,140) 358 2,480
Effects of cost reduction etc. 115 (1,825) 674 1,533 (928) 1,666 200
R&D cost (361) 247 998 (242) (322) (404) (475)
Sales administration cost (818) (883) 4,209 (620) 558 (1,419) (1,170)
Impact from the earthquake N/A N/A N/A (457) N/A N/A N/A
Suzuki
(Note2)
Operating profit 1,494 769 794 1,069 1,193 1,446 1,500
Changes in operating profits 165 (725) 25 275 124 253 54
Sales/mix, etc. 408 (1,422) (696) 253 (542) 327 34
Impact from exchange fluctuation 225 (707) (469) (283) (289) (69) 260
Cost reduction 284 201 172 355 226 284 280
Depreciation (117) 204 (6) 34 353 94 (210)
R&D cost (166) (63) 62 47 (57) (95) (110)
Miscellaneous expenditures (469) 1,062 962 (131) 433 (288) (200)
Mazda Operating profit 1,621 (284) 95 238 (387) 539 1,200
Changes in operating profits 36 (1,905) 379 143 (625) 926 661
Volume/vehicle type mix 80 (865) (606) 357 (363) 338 499
Impact from exchange fluctuation 234 (1,020) (765) (437) (376) 184 560
Improving product appeal (133) (190) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cost reduction 158 440 680 112 56 367 157
Raw material market conditions N/A (440) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sales costs (42) 65 227 (56) (27) (68) (183)
Others (261) 105 843 167 85 105 (372)
Mitsubishi Operating profit 1,086 39 139 403 637 674 1,000
Changes in operating profits 684 (1,047) 100 264 234 37 326
Volume/vehicle type mix 543 (720) (856) 533 168 123 280
Impact from exchange fluctuation 146 (761) (418) (342) (105) (34) 280
Cost reduction etc. 154 365 544 211 272 432 200
Impact from rising raw materials costs N/A (317) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Others N/A 335 578 (86) (106) (323) (174)
For sales cost (64) 174 252 (51) 5 (161) (260)
US sales finance business (95) (123) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Daihatsu
(Note3)
Operating profit 652 381 407 1,034 1,154 1,330 1,350
Changes in operating profits 109 (271) 26 627 120 176 20
Sales/vehicle type mix 190 113 (258) 224 237 267 110
Impact from exchange fluctuation 39 (80) (79) (17) (39) 55 100
Cost reduction 106 105 123 150 78 55 60
Sales related costs N/A N/A N/A (37) N/A N/A N/A
Miscellaneous expenditures (227) (408) 239 306 (156) (202) (250)
FHI
(Note4)
Operating profit 457 (58) 274 841 440 1,204 1,800
Changes in operating profits (22) (515) 332 567 (401) 764 596
Sales mix disparity (8) 3 87 831 12 817 37
Impact from exchange fluctuation 10 (435) (304) (356) (420) 293 639
Cost reduction, etc. 70 (32) 260 89 (22) 315 120
Testing and research costs (13) 92 57 (57) (52) (10) (99)
Miscellaneous expenditures (81) (143) 232 61 80 (650) (101)
Isuzu Operating profit 1,096 217 110 882 974 1,308 1,800
Changes in operating profits 26 (879) (107) 772 92 334 492
Change in sales/difference in product mix (113) (800) (807) 705 58 307 250
Impact from exchange fluctuation 34 (156) (23) (24) (45) 40 250
Changes in economic conditions (82) (273) 181 (98) (74) 44 (60)
Streamlining 172 190 130 177 112 89 132
Compressing costs etc. N/A N/A 412 12 92 (131) (80)
Effect of pervious FY (Earthquake disaster) N/A N/A N/A N/A (51) (15) N/A
Improvement of profitability etc. 76 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Costs for facilities, R&D (137) (108) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Changed accounting period of subsidiaries 76 (76) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hino Operating profit 459 (194) 11 289 375 651 850
Changes in operating profits 92 (653) 205 278 86 276 199
Impact on sales 82 (330) 231 337 360 308 100
Changes in business climate (36) (366) (70) (111) (308) 28 30
Improvement of costs 190 163 199 187 186 199 200
Changes in costs (144) (120) 190 (135) (152) (198) (131)
Fluctuation in sales volume N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (61) N/A
Operating profit N/A N/A (345) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note)1. Nissan's "Purchase costs etc." include costs for raw material and energy.
2. Suzuki's fluctuation in "sales/mix etc." includes influence from raw material cost.
3. Daihatsu's "miscellaneous expenditures" includes depreciation.
4. FHI's "cost reduction etc." includes influence from rising raw material cost.

 



Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Mazda, Isuzu and Hino plan record high investments in facilities and R&D

 The ten OEMs plan to spend a total of JPY 2,777 billion in capital expenditure in FY2013, up 15.6% y/y and the highest in five years. Honda, Suzuki, Mazda, Daihatsu, Isuzu and Hino plan the record high capital expenditure, while Toyota holds it down to JPY 910 billion, up 6.7% y/y but about 60% of its record high.

 The FY2013 combined R&D cost will be increased by 10.7% y/y to JPY 2,454 billion, the highest in history. Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, FHI and Hino respectively plan the largest R&D costs in history.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated capital expenditure, depreciation and R&D costs

(JPY in 100 million)
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Plan
Capital expenditure Toyota 14,802 13,025 5,790 6,423 7,067 8,527 9,100
Nissan 4,289 3,836 2,736 3,120 4,064 5,245 5,200
Honda 6,540 5,991 3,297 3,113 4,065 5,936 7,000
Suzuki 2,436 2,162 1,312 1,303 1,267 1,693 2,700
Mazda 755 818 298 447 780 772 1,300
Mitsubishi 567 719 471 525 710 514 800
Daihatsu 1,117 767 367 406 693 731 1,150
FHI 563 580 561 431 543 702 670
Isuzu 506 667 257 294 333 575 1,000
Hino 437 584 285 300 429 499 800
Total 30,458 27,798 14,722 15,656 18,829 23,964 27,770
Depreciation Toyota 10,424 10,721 10,320 8,123 7,329 7,273 7,500
Nissan 3,709 4,212 3,633 3,721 3,344 3,158 3,300
Honda 4,173 4,082 3,666 3,252 2,937 2,866 3,600
Suzuki 1,616 1,412 1,418 1,384 1,031 937 1,150
Mazda 665 752 764 716 688 600 580
Mitsubishi 719 790 690 627 534 503 600
Daihatsu 665 837 729 637 611 562 620
FHI 655 651 571 498 537 559 550
Isuzu 415 396 395 364 360 356 400
Hino 442 475 452 457 435 408 380
Total 22,376 23,016 21,457 18,685 16,760 16,252 17,680
R & D cost Toyota 9,588 9,040 7,253 7,303 7,798 8,074 8,900
Nissan 4,575 4,555 3,855 3,993 4,280 4,699 5,080
Honda 5,879 5,631 4,633 4,875 5,198 5,602 6,300
Suzuki 1,087 1,150 1,088 1,041 1,098 1,193 1,300
Mazda 1,144 960 852 910 917 899 1,000
Mitsubishi 776 640 444 494 550 599 730
Daihatsu 442 442 437 382 338 357 420
FHI 520 428 372 429 481 491 590
Isuzu 603 677 552 586 588 612 640
Hino 395 409 381 411 404 434 440
Total 24,172 23,081 19,049 19,631 20,910 22,169 24,540

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) Honda revised its method of depreciation for its tangible fixed assets (excluding operating lease assets) from a fixed percentage method to a straight-line method from FY2012. As a result, the depreciation cost for FY2012 decreased by JPY 56.3 billion from the previous method.

 

 



Production Forecast by LMC Automotive: Japanese light vehicle production forecast by make

(LMC Automotive、April 2013)

 According to LMC Automotive Forecast in April 2013, Japanese light vehicle production in 2013 will decrease to about 9,116,000 units by 4.1 % and to 8,423,000 units in 2016. LMC Automotive explains in the report as follows: "our conservative view of sales is mirrored in production also with both domestic and export demand being possible sources of more positive demand. We see the chance of outperforming our current forecast as being significant. However, it is unclear whether Japanese vehicle exporters will be willing to use the increasing currency advantage to cut prices in export markets as this would have a detrimental brand impact in these markets. It may be more likely that repatriated profits will be increased, and this is something that is already happening."

Japanese light vehicle production by make until 2016

(Units)
SALES GROUP GLOBAL MAKE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 9,253,559 8,020,071 9,510,480 9,116,317 8,738,975 8,416,944 8,423,132
Daimler Group Fuso 16,896 18,317 20,593 18,927 14,175 14,959 15,335
Fiat-Chrysler Group Alfa Romeo 0 0 0 0 0 11,720 15,152
Ford Group Ford 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fuji
Heavy
Subaru 511,361 458,739 555,425 568,067 562,130 548,250 533,649
General Motors Group Chevrolet
/Daewoo
4,969 0 0 0 0 0 0
Honda Group Acura 34,502 34,212 22,855 25,879 0 0 0
Honda 956,776 676,424 1,009,101 1,048,005 1,176,733 1,076,606 988,355
Honda Group
Sub-total
991,278 710,636 1,031,956 1,073,884 1,176,733 1,076,606 988,355
Isuzu Motors Isuzu 88,098 90,305 97,099 89,362 88,809 86,384 85,502
Mazda Motors Mazda 959,801 841,837 881,525 916,395 899,731 851,178 884,891
Mitsubishi
Motors
Mitsubishi 610,283 560,258 485,831 484,410 510,473 492,771 488,477
PSA
Group
Citroen 230 3,388 1,373 0 0 0 0
Peugeot 230 3,390 1,885 0 0 0 0
PSA Group Sub-total 460 6,778 3,258 0 0 0 0
Renault-Nissan Group Infiniti 141,634 145,441 123,086 186,968 191,174 201,386 207,313
Nissan 1,150,106 1,117,746 1,179,811 1,014,129 793,280 698,905 722,234
Renault-Nissan
Group Sub-total
1,291,740 1,263,187 1,302,897 1,201,097 984,454 900,291 929,547
Suzuki Group Suzuki 913,484 787,447 885,828 823,992 729,775 687,459 642,816
Toyota Group Daihatsu 646,762 564,957 682,546 563,565 583,479 559,868 567,657
Hino 30,367 38,137 58,484 40,678 36,346 35,594 34,669
Lexus 308,224 326,168 397,179 442,871 445,408 497,612 584,400
Scion 62,791 41,857 58,972 76,984 86,063 87,606 87,413
Toyota 2,816,045 2,311,448 3,048,887 2,816,085 2,621,399 2,566,646 2,565,269
Toyota Group
Sub-total
3,864,189 3,282,567 4,246,068 3,940,183 3,772,695 3,747,326 3,839,408
Source; LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Production Forecast (April, 2013)"
(Note) 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3. For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

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