Japanese OEMs aim for record high sales in FY2013

Weaker yen and a strong US market are key to reaching 24.8 million unit sales target

2013/06/10

Summary

 With correction of the yen appreciation, recovering Japanese economy, improved US market and increased sales in Asia, Japanese OEMs plan to achieve the record high sales and profits in FY2013. They will also make the largest investment in history in facilities and R&D, aiming for future growth.

 The ten Japanese OEMs plan to renew the record sales for the second year with a total of 24.83 millions automobiles in FY2013, up 6.2% year-on-year basis. In North America, the seven Japanese passenger car OEMs plan a total sales of 7.0 million units, up 6.7% y/y and in Asia and other regions, they plan to increase the combined sales to 10.7 million units, up 8.9% y/y. The Japanese OEMs, except for Mazda and Mitsubishi, aim to break their records. Toyota Group plans to exceed the 10 million units mark with 10.10 million units.

 The ten OEMs' combined target for the FY2013 consolidated revenues is JPY 57.5 trillion, up 11.1% y/y, approximately JPY five trillion less than the record high of 62.3 trillion JPY, down 8%. Nissan, Honda, Daihatsu, FHI and Hino aim to break their records.

 Each Japanese OEM plans to increase profit in FY2013 and the total operating profit of the ten OEMs is projected to increase by 34.9% y/y to JPY 3.92 trillion, approximately JPY 600 billion less than the record profit achieved in FY2007.

 The average assumed exchange rate of the Japanese OEMs is JPY 92.3 to the U.S. dollar, 10 yen lower than the previous year's, which is expected to raise the combined operating profit to 1,071.9 billion yen. As of the end of May 2013, the exchange rate hovers around JPY 101 to the dollar. If the rate stays at this level, it is highly likely that the business results outlook will be revised upward.


 According to LMC Automotive Forecast in April 2013, Japanese light vehicle sales in 2013 will fall by only a small amount to just under 5.2 million units. The global research company has been raising its Japanese sales forecast every month, starting from 4.7 million units estimated for January. LMC Automotive points out as follows : "LMC also notes that risks to the forecast are currently on the upside - the market may outperform expectations. In Japan, sales continue to be buoyed by the rising expectation that the "Abenomics" will lift the economy out of two decades of stagnation. The selling rate (SAAR) averaged a solid 5.2 million units in Q1 2013. Sales are projected to surge higher ahead of the scheduled consumption tax hike in April 2014."

Japanese OEMs' FY2012 outlooks (figures in shaded cells represent record high)

Automobile sales volume
(1,000 units)		Consolidated revenue
(100 million yen)		Operating profit
(100 million yen)		Exchange
rate of yen
to dollar
FY2012
Results		FY2013
Plan		(Reference)
FY2007
results		FY2012
Results		FY2013
Plan		(Reference)
FY2007
results		FY2012
Results		FY2013
Plan		(Reference)
FY2007
results		FY
2013
Plan		Sensi-
tivity
(100
million
yen)
Toyota 8,871 9,100 8,913 220,641 235,000 262,892 13,208 18,000 22,704 90 400
Nissan 4,533 4,889 3,698 96,296 103,700 108,242 5,235 6,100 7,908 95.0 150
Honda 4,014 4,430 3,925 98,779 121,000 120,028 5,448 7,800 9,531 95 140
Suzuki 2,660 2,803 2,406 25,783 28,000 35,024 1,446 1,500 1,494 90 40
Mazda 1,053 1,120 1,240 22,053 24,800 34,758 539 1,200 1,621 90 25
Mitsubishi 987 1,169 1,337 18,151 22,700 26,821 674 1,000 1,086 95 20
Daihatsu 983 1,026 945 17,649 18,000 17,026 1,330 1,350 652 93 12-14
FHI 724 752 597 19,130 20,500 15,723 1,204 1,800 457 90 75
Isuzu 534 567 509 16,556 19,200 19,248 1,308 1,800 1,096 95 N/A
Hino 155 175 112 15,414 16,200 13,686 651 850 459 90 N/A
Total 23,376 24,830 22,625 517,389 574,900 622,736 29,062 39,200 45,897 92.3 N/A

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.

 

Related report: Japanese OEM global production marks a record high in 2012 (April, 2013)
New vehicle sales in Japan expected to drop by 11.7% in 2013 (February, 2013)
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