ASEAN: Vehicle sales recover, shifting from eco-car policies to EV incentives
Thailand to introduce EV incentives, Malaysia leading with EEV policy
| There is strong evidence to suggest that new vehicle sales in the ASEAN market will fluctuate greatly due to the economic upturn, changes in economic policy, and promotion measures. In 2016, roughly 3 million vehicles were sold in ASEAN’s main five countries. In 2017, thanks to the economic upturn, the Thai market saw a major recovery, with Indonesia and Malaysia also seeing steady growth. The Philippines continues to experience brisk demand prior to the commodity tax increase scheduled to be implemented in 2018. Although vehicle import tariffs in Vietnam will be lifted in 2018, sales are sluggish due to consumer hesitation to purchase new vehicles, but this situation is expected to improve in 2018.
The major four countries in the ASEAN region manufacture approximately 3.8 million vehicles. Thailand (2 million vehicles) and Indonesia (1.1 million vehicles) have implemented incentives to locally manufacture and export fuel efficient compact vehicles, leading Japanese OEMs to release global compact cars and vehicles exclusive for these emerging country markets. Malaysia (600,000 vehicles) announced its National Automotive Policy 2014, which aims to have the country achieve an annual production of over 1 million vehicles in 2020, and is currently promoting the implementation of EEVs, such as EVs and HVs, prior to the implementation of similar measures by its neighboring countries. In 2015, The Philippines announced its automobile industry support policy, the CARS Program, which aims to produce over 600,000 vehicles annually six years from now.
Source: MarkLines yearly vehicle sales data
Australia sold 1.18 million new vehicles in 2016, marking an all-time high. However, the country has terminated domestic vehicle production in October 2017. Various models from Ford, GM, and Toyota that were manufactured locally are now being imported. Most of the vehicles exported from Thailand are to Oceania, and it is anticipating that exports from Thailand to Australia will increase in the future.
Due to the effects of the recent global shift towards EVs, various governments in the ASEAN region have announced EV implementation policies, and are beginning to release EVs, and to establish EV infrastructure. Following the release of EEV compatible vehicles from Malaysia’s domestic OEMs Perodua and Proton, BMW and Volvo Cars have also begun local assembly of EEV compatible vehicles, advancing the introduction of EVs. In March 2017, Thailand announced its EV investment incentive, and approved Toyota’s HV manufacturing investment proposal in August. Indonesia is also commencing preparations for establishing laws and regulations relating to the implementation of EVs.
Indonesia: Market size recovers to a level of 1.1 million vehicles, local production advances (September 2017)
Thai production expected to increase 2.6% to 2 million units in 2017 (January 2017)
ASEAN: More than 3 million vehicle sales in five major countries, new vehicle sales recover in 2017
The automobile market size in ASEAN’s five major countries is over 3 million vehicles. Indonesia has a market size of 1 to 1.2 million vehicles, Thailand’s is 800,000 units, Malaysia’s is 600,000 units, the Philippines is 300,000 to 400,000 units, and Vietnam’s is 200,000 to 300,000 units.
Vehicle sales in the ASEAN market are showing trends that indicate major fluctuations due to the economic recovery, and the implementation of economic policies and sales promotional measures in various countries. In Thailand, the first car tax reduction implemented from 2011 to 2012 led to a decline in vehicle sales in 2013. Indonesia implemented the Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) policy in 2013, expanding the market size to 1.2 million vehicles, which extended into the following year, but volumes have since remained at 1 million vehicles due to the economic downturn.
New vehicle sales from January to October 2017 greatly recovered in the Thai market thanks to economic recovery. Indonesia and Malaysia also saw steady growth, with new vehicle sales experiencing a year-over-year (y/y) increase. Brisk demand in the Philippines prior to the commodity tax increase scheduled to be implemented in the beginning of 2018 continues, maintaining a double-digit increase. As tariffs on imported vehicles will be lifted in 2018 in Vietnam, new vehicle sales remain stagnant, but are expected to recover in 2018.
Source: MarkLines yearly vehicle sales data
New vehicle sales trends in the five ASEAN countries
|Country (Organization)||Jan – Dec 2016 y/y||Jan – Oct 2017 y/y||Domestic sales trends|
| An economic policy package to relax regulations on automobile loans and for economic stimulus was implemented in 2015, leading to a growth in new vehicle sales from the middle of 2016.
Healthy growth in new vehicle sales continued in 2017, and the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO) has forecasted that new vehicle sales will reach 1.1 million vehicles by the end of the year.
| In the beginning of 2016 a new commodity tax was implemented in Thailand, leading to an increase in the tax on some models, and the death of the former King of Thailand in October had the effect of OEMs refraining from releasing new vehicles, resulting in a decrease in consumer purchasing power.
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), consumer sentiment recovered thanks to an increase in exports and private investment in 2017. The resumption of new vehicle releases has also helped pushed sales growth. Additionally, with the end of the five-year resale prohibition period for consumers that purchased their first car with the first car tax reduction policy implemented from 2011 to 2012, from September 2017 many automakers anticipate an increase in replacement demand. The total year sales forecast, initially predicted to be 800,000 vehicles at the beginning of 2017, was revised upwards to 830,000 in August.
| The major decline in new vehicle sales in 2016 can be attributed to stricter loan screenings, as well as the downturn in consumer sentiment caused by anxiety over the future of the global economy.
In 2017, while there were various negative effects on new vehicle sales such as the flood in January on the East Coast, changes to vehicle taxes for SUVs and 4WD vehicles in April, and delayed vehicle registration due to the liberalization of auto insurance regulations in July, new vehicle sales are steadily growing.
|With the increase in the commodity tax in 2018, there is currently rush of demand in the Philippines.|
| In January 2016, the calculation method for the special consumption tax (SCT) on complete build up (CBU) imports was revised, leading to a substantial increase in taxes, which in turn contributed to healthy sales of vehicles manufactured domestically. The SCT was revised again in July, when tax rates for vehicles with an engine displacement of 1,500 cc or less was lowered from 45% to 40%, and rates for vehicles with an engine displacement of 2,500 to 3,000 cc was increased from 50% to 55%.
Tariffs on CBU imports from the ASEAN region decreased from 40% to 30% in January 2017 thanks to the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA). In January 2018, tariffs will be dropped completely from 30% to 0%, which is diminishing consumer restraint to purchase vehicles in anticipation of a future decrease in prices.
ASEAN: Thailand and Indonesia exports increase, Malaysia leads in the introduction of EVs
Vehicle production in the four major ASEAN nations totals roughly 3.8 million vehicles, with Thailand manufacturing 2 million units, Indonesia 1.1 million units, Malaysia 600,000 units, and the Philippines 100,000 units.
Thailand and Indonesia have encouraged the local production of compact vehicles, and have increased production by boosting exports. In Thailand, components are also increasingly being manufactured domestically. Thailand is gradually becoming a global production base not only for compact vehicles, but also for pickup trucks such as the Toyota Hilux, Nissan Navara, Mitsubishi Triton, and Isuzu D-Max. Indonesia has developed as a production base for MPVs, such as the Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia, and Honda Mobilio, which make up roughly 40% of domestic sales. In recent years, crossover models that feature the sporty exterior and performance of SUVs, such as the Mitsubishi Xpander, have been released into the market.
Malaysia, which follows Thailand and Indonesia in terms of production scale, has been advancing its National Automotive Policy 2014 to achieve an annual production capacity of over 1 million vehicles in 2020. In particular, the country is promoting the introduction of EEVs, such as EVs and HVs, ahead of its neighboring countries. In 2015, the Philippines announced its CARS Program, a measure to support its automotive industry, and aim to achieve an annual production capacity of over 600,000 vehicles six years from now. Until now, the country has supported the growth of its automotive industry through its unique policy of favoring Asian Utility Vehicles (AUVs), but through the implementation of the CARS Program, three models have been selected to achieve a total production volume over 200,000 vehicles within six years, with local vehicle assembly and components manufacturing.
Source: MarkLines yearly vehicle production data
Vehicle production and export
|Country (Organization)||Jan – Dec 2016 (y/y)||Jan – Oct 2017 (y/y)|
|Thailand (FTI)||Production||1,944,417 (+1.6%)||1,641,231 (+0.2%)|
|Export||1,188,515 (-1.4%)||940,820 (-6.3%)|
|Indonesia (GAIKINDO)||Production||1,177,389 (+7.2%)||1,017,100 (+3.7%)|
|Export||194,397 (-6.4%)||192,709 (+20.7%)|
Thailand: Anticipating increased exports to Oceania
The FTI ‘s automotive association made downward revisions to its 2017 full year production forecast from the 2 million vehicles (of which, 1.2 million vehicles are for export) predicted at the beginning of 2017 to 1.93 million units (1.1 million for export) in August. The FTI predicts that the export of completed vehicles to Oceania will increase and production will see a y/y increase by the end of 2017. Exports of automobile components from January to June 2017 saw a y/y increase of 13.9% to USD 9.5 billion. Full year export sales are expected to see a 7.5% y/y increase to USD 18.5 billion.
Monthly, Thailand exports approximately 30,000 vehicles to Oceania, 25,000 vehicles to Asia, and 10,000 vehicles to the Middle East, Europe, and North America (source: MarkLines vehicle exports from Thailand). In Australia, Thailand’s primary export destination, Toyota and GM terminated production in October 2017, with all future models to be imported into Australia. As a result, expectations are high that exports from Thailand to Australia will increase further.
Government-led construction of an automobile test center
Thailand plans to construct a government-led automobile test center in Chachoengsao Province, which is designated as an eastern economic corridor (EEC). The testing center will be constructed in an area of Sanam Chai Khet province with a size of 1,235 rai (roughly 198 ha), with a project investment amount of THB 3.74 billion (roughly JPY 12.4 billion). Parts manufacturers which had been testing their products overseas will be able to conduct testing domestically, leading to a decrease in costs.
According to the Thai Industrial Standards Institute (TISI), phase 1 of the initial project plan will see the construction of a tire testing track that follows the UN’s UNR-117 standards, and is scheduled for completion in April 2018. In phase 2, five test tracks will be constructed, beginning in 2018 and finishing in 2019, with all facilities scheduled to begin operations in 2020. However, the start of construction was delayed in May 2017, and is now expected to commence between Q1 and the beginning of Q2 of 2018.
Indonesia: Local production increasing due to growing domestic demand, promotion of exports remains an issue
Indonesia, considered a high potential market with its population of 250 million, is expected to increase production in anticipation of mid- to long-term growth in domestic demand.
The government is promoting exports of domestically manufactured vehicles, but CBU exports remain at the 200,000 unit level. While there is high demand for sedans in Australia, which Indonesia lists as one of its export destination candidates, there is also a high demand for MPVs that seat multiple passengers, as well as hatchbacks in Indonesia, but the production of sedans has yet to take off. Sedans have a higher luxury tax rate (30% or more) in Indonesia compared to the tax rate of other vehicle types (10% or more), and the industry is requesting the government to lower the luxury tax rate of sedans to promote the production of export vehicles. Additionally, upgrading domestic emissions and safety standards to the levels of its export destinations is another issue for Indonesia.
Malaysia: Aiming to increase exports and become a production hub for EEVs
According to the Malaysian Automobile Association (MAA), vehicle production in 2016 saw a y/y decrease of 11.3% to 545,253 vehicles, and from January to October 2017, saw a y/y decrease of 4.2% to 421,635 vehicles. Malaysia aims to have a production capacity of over 1 million vehicles in 2020, but has remained at the 500,000 mark in recent years.
In January 2014, Malaysia’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) announced the National Automotive Policy 2014, which states that the country’s major focus is to increase the export of completed vehicles and automotive components, as well as to become a production hub for EEVs in the ASEAN region. The vehicle production target for 2020 is 1.25 million passenger vehicles, 100,000 commercial vehicles, and 800,000 motorcycles. Malaysia seeks to create a domestic passenger vehicle market size of 1 million vehicles, and aims to export 250,000 vehicles. Additionally, Malaysia also aims to export MYR 10 billion or more in automotive components.
The Philippines: Promotion of its CARS Program automotive industry support policy
Since 2014, automobile production in the Philippines has remained at the 100,000 vehicle level. (Source: MarkLines data of annual vehicle production in the Philippines)
In June 2015, the Philippines government announced Presidential Decree No. 182, relating to the Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy Program (CARS Program) automobile industry support policy. The purpose of the CARS Program is to support the healthy development of the country’s domestic automotive industry, as well as increase its competitiveness in the ASEAN region. The program will see PHP 27 billion in new investments, and seek to create an annual production capacity of over 600,000 vehicles, with an economic effect of PHP 300 billion, creating 200,000 new jobs.
Total support for the CARS Program beginning in 2016 will total a maximum of PHP 27 billion over the course of six years, with support for a single model limited to a maximum of PHP 9 billion. Three models that are scheduled to have a total production of 200,000 vehicles or more in six years’ time have been selected as vehicles that will be supported by the CARS Program. Businesses that will be supported include vehicle production, vehicle assembly, large-scale injection molding, production of common and strategic components, and vehicle and component testing facilities. Manufacturers that produce completed vehicles or automobile components will be exempted from paying PHP 4.5 billion in taxes annually.
In June 2016, Mitsubishi Motors (Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corporation) and Toyota (Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation) were approved by the Board of Investments (BOI), under the Department of Trade and Industry, as OEMs to participate in the CARS Program. Mitsubishi Motors will aim for the production of 200,000 vehicles of its Mirage and Mirage G4 (Attrage), while Toyota plans to manufacture 230,000 units of its new Vios.
ASEAN: Shifting from eco-car policies to EV incentives
The major automobile manufacturing countries in the ASEAN region are implementing incentives to locally produce and export fuel efficient compact vehicles. In response, Japanese OEMs have released global compact cars and vehicles exclusively aimed at emerging countries. These vehicles will not only be released in the ASEAN region, but also will be reimported to the Japanese market. Japanese OEMs are also expanding export destinations to Australia and the Middle East.
In recent years, due to the global shift to EVs, there is currently a move to introduce these vehicles in the ASEAN market as well. Various governments have announced policies in preparation for the introduction of EVs, while OEMs are beginning to release EVs and starting to establish EV infrastructure.
Incentives for fuel-efficient compact vehicles
|In November 2006, the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) approved the compact, low-emissions “Eco-Car” policy. In August 2013, the BOI approved phase 2 of the Eco-Car policy. Phase 2 Eco-Car regulations are equivalent to the Euro5 European emissions standard of 100 g/km or less in CO2 emissions and a fuel efficiency of 23.3 km/L or higher at an engine displacement of 1,300 cc or below in gasoline-powered vehicles, and 1,500 cc or below in diesel-powered vehicles. Eco-cars will have a reduced commodity tax rate, and automakers will be exempt from corporate taxes for six years. (Related report: Thai government approves second phase of eco-car project)|
| Models that fall under the Eco-Car category include the Toyota Yaris, Nissan March, Almera, Honda Brio, Brio Amaze, Mitsubishi Mirage, Attrage, Suzuki Swift, Celerio, Ciaz, and Mazda Mazda2 (Demio). (As of October 2017)
In August 2017, Toyota released the Yaris Ativ compact sedan. The vehicle features the Vios’ exterior design and the Yaris’ powertrain, and meets the conditions for phase 1 eco-cars. Toyota also released an upgraded version of the Yaris in September.
|In Thailand’s eco-car market, in 2016 Toyota sold 36,648 vehicles for a y/y increase of 1.2%, giving them a 32% market share. In 2017, the automaker aims to increase its sales by 3.7% to 38,000 vehicles. Overall, vehicle sales in the eco-car market are expected to increase from 114,093 vehicles in 2016 (15% of the entire market) to 160,000 in 2017 (20% of the entire market). In the next two to three years, eco-car sales are expected to grow to 25% of the entire Thai market.|
|In July 2013, the Indonesian Ministry of Industry announced the provisions for its Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) policy. LCGC vehicles that meet conditions such as a fuel efficiency of 20 km/liter or more, engine displacement of 980 to 1,200 cc in gasoline-powered vehicles, 1,500 cc or below in diesel-powered vehicles, and vehicles with prices of IDR 95 million or less will be fully exempt from luxury taxes. (Related report: Indonesian Government: Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) policy approved in July 2013)|
|Models that meet the LCGC conditions are the Toyota Agya, Calya, Daihatsu Ayla, Sigra, Honda Brio Satya, Suzuki Karimun Wagon R, Nissan’s Datsun GO Panca, and GO+ Panca. (As of October 2017)|
EV implementation policies
|In January 2014, the Malaysia Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) announced the National Automotive Policy 2014, which aims to convert 85% of the vehicles manufactured in Malaysia to EEVs by 2020. EEVs include fuel-efficient vehicles, HVs, EVs, and vehicles that use alternative fuel sources, such as CNG, LPG, bio-diesel, ethanol, hydrogen, and fuel cells. If a vehicle meets the fuel efficiency standards of EEVs, it will receive a range of incentives, such as tax incentives and subsidies.|
|・In September 2014, Perodua released the first EEV model, the Axia. From January to June 2017, Perodua sold 99,700 vehicles, of which 32,600 were the Axia, making it the best-selling model in the Malaysian market.
・In July 2016, Daihatsu released the Bezza, a compact EEV sedan, based on the same platform as the Perodua Axia. The Bezza is a new national vehicle, manufactured at Perodua’s Rawang plant.
・In November 2016, Proton released the Ertiga, the first EEV-certified compact MPV. The Ertiga is the first model released in partnership with Suzuki.
・More than 50% of BMW’s sales in Malaysia are PHVs (as of October 2017). The Kulim plant locally manufactures 20 BMW and MINI models, and the 3 Series, X3, 5 Series, and several other models have been EEV certified.
・In October 2017, Volvo Cars released the S90 T8 Twin Engine Inscription EEV certified PHV. The vehicle is manufactured locally at the Shah Alam plant.
|National Electric Mobility Blueprint (EMB)
| Based on its national electric mobility plan, Malaysia aims to become a marketing hub for EVs by 2030. According to the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water (KeTTHA), Malaysia will focus on three fields: developing EVs for transport and personal ownership, the EV ecosystem, and an EV economy.
By 2030, Malaysia plans to introduce 100,000 EVs, 125,000 charging stations, 2,000 EV buses, and 100,000 electric motorcycles. As of April 2017, a total of 1,136 EVs, EV buses, electric motorcycles, and electric bicycles are owned in Malaysia.
|Promotional privileges for EVs
| In March 2017, the BOI approved of investment incentives that will exempt EV manufacturers from corporate taxes for a certain period of time. Although the incentives will be targeted at passenger vehicles, pickup trucks, and buses, the contents of the tax exemption will be determined based on the technological level of the EV. Major contents are as follows:
・EV production: Exempt from corporate taxes from five to eight years. If the manufacturer also produces major components, the manufacturer will receive an additional year of exemption per component, for up to ten years.
・PHV production: Exempt from corporate taxes for three years. Import taxes on mechanical equipment are also subject to exemption. If the manufacturer produces major components, the manufacturer will receive an additional year of exemption per component, for up to six years.
・HV production: Exempt only from import taxes for mechanical equipment.
Additionally, companies that manufacture ten major EV components will be exempt from corporate taxes for eight years. Components that meet the conditions include batteries, traction motors, battery control systems, DC/DC converters, inverters, portable EV chargers, circuit breakers, and EV smart charging systems.
| In August 2017, the BOI approved Toyota’s HV production investment plan. The OEM will invest THB 19 billion (approximately JPY 63 billion) in the project. A new plant will be constructed in the Gateway City Industrial Estate, in Chachoengsao Province, coming on stream in 2018. The new plant will annually manufacture 7,000 HVs, 70,000 EV batteries, as well as doors, bumpers, and front and rear axles for a total of 9.1 million components. Component production revenue is expected to be around THB 13.3 billion (approximately JPY 44 billion) annually.
In addition to manufacturing HVs in Thailand, Toyota is also scheduled to begin development of a new battery plant and construct a new vehicle recycling facility in October.
|Roadmap to promote EVs
| In March 2016, Thailand’s National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved a roadmap for the full-fledged popularization of EVs. The roadmap details plan for the manufacturing of 1.2 million EVs in Thailand by 2036. Furthermore, the roadmap schedules for the construction of at least 700 to 800 charging stations, or a maximum of 1,000 charging locations.
・Phase 1: Considers related infrastructure, taxes, laws, regulations, and pricing for various services, and begins preparations. In 2016, the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) will introduce 200 EV buses. The Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) will handle EV bus transport from Suvarnabhumi International Airport to Pattaya.
・Phase 2: Expands deployment of EVs from 2017 to 2019, and permits private companies to enter the public transportation business.
・Phase 3: Promotes private ownership of EVs. The government will support basic infrastructure and smart grids.
|EV promotion policy
| Based on its plan to sell 400,000 low carbon emission vehicles (LCEVs) by 2025, the Indonesian Government is preparing to make a presidential decree to strengthen its domestic EV-related industries. As part of its preparations to formulate the laws and regulations, the Indonesian Ministry of Industry will conduct EV test drives by the end of December 2017. Mitsubishi Motors reportedly will provide a total of ten vehicles of two of its prototype EV models.*
Although hardly any HVs and EVs are driven in Indonesia, the PLN, Indonesia’s government-owned power company, is currently establishing EV and electric motorcycle charging stations primarily in Jakarta.
*On December 11th 2017, Mitsubishi Motors announced it signed an agreement with the Indonesian Government to increase the popularity of EVs. The two parties will investigate efficient usage conditions of EVs in the country, and will provide eight vehicles of its Outlander PHEV and two i-MiEV vehicles, as well as quick-charging equipment to the Indonesian Ministry of Industry, national universities, and research institutes.
Australia: Domestic vehicle manufacturing ends, and vehicle sales are at an all-time high
In 2016, 1,178,133 vehicles were sold in Australia for a y/y growth rate of 2.0%, recording an all-time high. From January to October 2017, vehicle sales grew by 0.5% to 984,931 vehicles, and are continuing to grow steadily.
The most popular vehicles in the Australian market include the Toyota Hilux, Corolla, Ford Ranger, Holden Commodore, Hyundai i30, and the Mazda3.
Vehicle manufacturing in Australia comes to an end
Vehicle manufacturing in Australia came to an end in October 2017. Vehicles such as the Holden Commodore and Toyota Camry, which were previously manufactured in local plants, will now be imported from other countries.
|Ford||On October 7th, 2016, Ford terminated its manufacturing operations in Australia, which had continued for 91 years since 1925. The Broadmeadows plant had manufactured the Falcon and Territory. Since 2016, Ford has imported the Mustang as a successor vehicle to the Falcon.|
|Toyota||On October 3rd, 2017, Toyota put an end to its 54 years of manufacturing in Australia. Over those years, Toyota manufactured a total of 3,451,115 vehicles. The Altona plant manufactured vehicles such as the Camry for domestic sales in Australia, as well as for export to the Middle East.|
|GM||On October 20th, 2017, GM’s 69 years of manufacturing automobiles in Australia came to an end. The OEM manufactured a total of over 7.6 million vehicles. The Elizabeth plant manufactured vehicles such as the Holden brand’s Commodore and Cruze. Production of the Commodore will be transferred to Opel’s Russelsheim plant in Germany. The successor model to the Cruze is the new Astra, which will be manufactured at Opel’s Gliwice plant in Poland. In the future, 1/3 or more of Holden’s product portfolio will be composed of imports from Europe, with the remaining volume to be imported from North America and Asia.|
(Reference) Vehicle production and sales data
Vehicle sales data
Source: MarkLines yearly vehicle sales data
Vehicle production data
Source: MarkLines yearly vehicle production data
(Reference) Major assembly plants and production models of Japanese OEMs
|Thailand||Toyota: Samrong/Gateway/Ban Pho plant
Toyota Vios, Yaris (Vitz), Corolla Altis, Corolla Limo, Camry, Camry Hybrid, Hilux Vigo, Fortuner, Wish, C-HR (2018-), hybrid vehicle (planning)
Toyota Auto Body: Samutprakarn plant
Toyota Commuter (Hiace based)
|Honda: Ayutthaya/Prachinburi plant
Honda Brio, Brio Amaze, Jazz (Fit), Jazz Hybrid, City, Civic, Accord, Accord Hybrid, BR-V, HR-V (Vezel), CR-V, Mobilio
Nissan March, Almera/Latio, Sylphy, Pulsar, Teana, X-Trail, X-Trail Hybrid, Note (2017-), Frontier/Navara
|Mitsubishi: Laemchabang plant
Mitsubishi Mirage (Space Star), Attrage (Mirage G4), Lancer EX, Pajero Sport (Montero Sport/Nativa) Mitsubishi Triton (L200)/Fiat Fullback/Ram 1200
Suzuki Celerio, Swift, Ciaz
Mazda 2 (Demio), Mazda 3 (Axela), CX-3, BT-50 (-2017)
|Indonesia||Daihatsu: Karawang/Sunter plant
Daihatsu Ayla, Terios, Xenia, Sigra, Gran Max, Luxio, Hi-Max Toyota Agya, Rush, Avanza, Calya, Town Ace/Hiace/Light Ace
Toyota Etios Valco, Vios, Yaris, Limo, Fortuner, Kijang Innova, Sienta
Toyota Auto Body: Bekasi plant
Toyota NAV 1 (-2017), Voxy (planning)
Honda Brio, Brio Satya, Jazz (Fit), BR-V, HR-V (Vezel), CR-V, Mobilio
Nissan Juke, X-Trail, Grand Livina, Livina, Serena, Evalia
Datsun GO+ Panca, GO Panca
|Mitsubishi: Jakarta/Bekasi plant
Mitsubishi Outlander Sport, Pajero Sport (2017-), Xpander (2017-), Colt T120SS, Colt L300
|Suzuki: Cikarang/Tambun plant
Suzuki Karimun Wagon R, Ertiga, APV, APV Arena, Carry, Mega Carry
Shah Alam plant
Toyota Vios, Camry, Fortuner, Innova, Hilux, Hiace
Toyota: Bukit Raja plant
Honda Jazz (Fit), Jazz Hybrid, City (Fit Aria), City Hybrid (2017-), Civic, Accord, BR-V (2017-), HR-V (Vezel), CR-V
|Tan Chong: Segambut/Serendah plant
Nissan Almera/Latio, Teana, X-Trail, Grand Livina, Livina, Serena, Serena S Hybrid, NV 200, Frontier/Navara, Caravan/Urvan, Urvan NV350 (2017-)
Mitsubishi ASX, Outlander (2017-)
Mazda 3 (Axela), CX-5
Santa Rosa plant
Toyota Vios, Innova
Santa Rosa plant
Santa Rosa plant
Nissan Sentra, Almera, X-Trail, Grand Livina
Santa Rosa plant
Nissan Navara, NV350 Urvan Shuttle, Patrol Safari
Santa Rosa plant
Mitsubishi Mirage (2017-), Mirage G4/Attrage (2017-), L300
Me Linh plant
Toyota Vios, Corolla Altis, Camry, Innova
Me Linh plant
Honda City, CR-V (-2017)
Da Nang plant
Nissan Sunny, X-Trail
Binh Duong plant
Mitsubishi Pajero Sport
Long Binh plant
Suzuki Swift, Carry
|Mazda: Quang Nam plant
Mazda 2 (Demio), Mazda 3 (Axela), Mazda 6 (Atenza), CX-5
Source: MarkLines OEM Plants data based on the figures released on the company's official website or media coverage.
Sales Forecast by LMC Automotive: ASEAN market to reach 3.8 million units in 2020
(LMC Automotive, Quarter 3, 2017)
According to LMC Automotive's sales forecast (Quarter 3, 2017), ASEAN light vehicle sales in 2017 will exceed 3.3 million units and reach the 3.8 million mark in 2020. In ASEAN countries, ongoing stable economic expansion will lead to larger market volumes in the future - and markets in Indonesia and Thailand stand out as being of most importance in this respect - but growth rates, while solid, are unlikely to be dramatically strong.
Indonesian Light Vehicle sales in H1 2017 declined by 1% YoY, ragged down by June’s sluggish outturn. June’s poor performance resulted from sales being distorted by Ramadan which began on 26 May this year) and the Eid Festival (the major holiday that follows Ramadan). Moving through Q3, however, we expect to see the Indonesian market rebound. Pent-up demand from June and a likely spike in demand from the GAIKINDO Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) in August will support the recovery. Several new models in the all-important MPV segment are being unveiled at the show, including the Mitsubishi Xpander and the first locally produced model from Chinese brand Wuling, the Confero S.
New vehicle sales in Thailand picked up again in June (+6% YoY), marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. This pushed the overall Light Vehicle market up by a considerable 12% in H1 2017, compared to the same period a year ago. The H1 SAAR averaged 834k units, compared to last year’s total Light Vehicle sales of 745k units. These results indicate that the Thai market has picked up in 2017, following four consecutive years of declining sales. In 2018, the pace of growth is expected to slow down to 2%, then pick up again in 2019 to 3%. Note, however, that the 2019 growth forecast hinges on the assumption that elections will take place in 2018 and that the transition to a new government will be peaceful. Another positive factor set to impact the Light Vehicle market in the near term relates to the stipulations of the temporary tax rebate scheme for first-time vehicle buyers that was introduced in 2012 - 2013. One of the conditions was that buyers were prevented from transferring vehicle ownership for a period of five years. Now that the restriction has elapsed, however, those early first - time buyers are free to resell their vehicles this year.
Light Vehicle sales this year are projected at 591k units, supported by the recovery in the large export sector, new model launches and the strengthening ringgit. However, a number of negative risks remain, including high household debt, the higher cost of living and the current stringent hire-purchase loan conditions in the country. Our own market intelligence suggests that consumers wishing to buy a non-national vehicle face a lower rejection rate as they are likely to have higher incomes than those seeking to purchase a Perodua or Proton model. However, the national brands accounted for 48% of total Light Vehicle sales in 2016, which significantly impacted the overall market. We will continue to keep a close eye on this issue as it evolves.
The prospect of higher prices from the implementation of the new vehicle commodity tax next year is supporting Light Vehicle sales this year, particularly in the PV segment, which surged by 20% YoY in H1, versus growth of just 4% YoY in the LCV sector. As a reminder, LCVs will be exempt from the new tax hikes. The Philippine government has revised the timing of the new vehicle commodity tax, which will now be implemented in two stages. Stage one will take place in January 2018 and stage two in January 2019, in lieu of a single implementation in January 2018. The commodity tax will be based on price, and the number of categories will increase from four to five. The following vehicle types will be exempt from the commodity tax hikes: Electric Vehicles, Trucks, Cargo Vans, Jeeps and Single-Cab Pickups. Note, however, that Double-Cab Pickups will not be exempt. Our expectation is that consumers will purchase vehicles this year, in order to avoid next year’s price hikes. Indeed, this is reflected in the H1 2017 SAAR, which averaged 443k units, compared to last year’s total volume of 398k. This result led us to increase the 2017 Light Vehicle sales outlook by 4.6% from the previous report. We now project that a total of 454k units will be sold this year, marking an increase of 13.8% on the 2016 outturn.
The Light Vehicle market in Vietnam posted an increase of 1.5% in H1 2017, compared to the same period last year, marking a sharp slowdown from the double-digit growth seen in 2016. The PV segment rose by 6% YoY, compared to a decline of nearly 10% YoY in the LCV sector. This pushed the YTD average SAAR to 246k units, versus last year’s total Light Vehicle sales of 259k units. Overall sales are now projected to end 2017 with a slight drop of 0.2% YoY to 258k units as consumers are expected to postpone vehicle purchases in the lead-up to the planned tax changes in January 2018. However, we believe that growth will pick up to double‐digits again next year (+25%), once the new tax regime has been implemented.
ASEAN light vehicle sales forecast
Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Sales Forecast (Quarter 3, 2017)"
(Note) 1. Data indicates figures of only small-size vehicle, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with gross vehicle weight of under 6 ton.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3. For more information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.
ASEAN, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Oceania, EV, Electrification, Eco-car
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