LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (May 2022)
2022/06/08
- Summary
- Commentary
Summary
- The West European selling rate increased to 9.8 mn units/year in May, from 8.8 mn units/year in April. While the demand environment this year has become increasingly challenging, as consumer confidence has made a step‐change down since the start of the war in Ukraine, it remains the supply side of the automotive industry that holds back better registration statistics.
- The German PV selling rate improved to 2.4 mn units/year in May, from 2.0 mn units/year previously, though remains low by historical standards. In the UK, the selling rate remained broadly flat on the month before at 1.7 mn units/year. For France, the selling rate increased to 1.5 mn units/year, from 1.2 mn units in April. While in Spain, the selling rate rose to a 2022 high of 887k units/year. Finally, the Italian PV selling rate improved modestly on the month before to 1.2 mn units/year.
- We forecast the 2022 market down against both 2020 and 2021, and at around two‐thirds of the levels seen in 2019, due to our baseline assumption that supply chain issues will constrain results through this year and into 2023. Risks still lie tilted to downside, with the most immediate threat to the forecast posed by a longer‐than‐expected conflict in Ukraine or worsened supply chain disruption because of China’s COVID‐19 policy. Moreover, the demand side situation is becoming increasingly gloomy, highlighted by the fact that consumer confidence in Europe is currently lower than anything seen at the start of the pandemic.
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