Japanese OEMs lower FY2012 outlook due to sluggish sales in China

Global sales still expected to exceed previous record highs set in FY2007



 FY2012 was the year in which Japanese OEMs planned to make a comeback from the damages caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and the flood in Thailand. Their aggressive plans were backed up by the revived subsidy program in Japan and by the expansion of their overseas sales. The ten Japanese OEMs' performances were doing well, as expected, during the first half (April to September period) of FY2012 with an increase in consolidated sales volume by 29.1% y/y to 11.62 million units and revenue by 22.4% to 25 trillion JPY for that same period. The operating profit increased threefold from the previous year to 1.5 trillion JPY.

 However, the companies made downward revisions to their full-year forecasts upon their announcements of their financial statements for the first half of FY2012 due to decreased sales in China originating from a territorial dispute between the two countries, as well as from a shrink in the market in Europe. Companies except for Toyota, Isuzu and Hino made downward revisions to their consolidated sales volumes. The total sales volume of the ten OEMs decreased by 520K units from the original plan to 23.74 million units (an increase of 15.3% from FY2011). However, the total sales volume of 23.74 million units exceeds the 22.62 million units from FY2007 before the economic crisis, marking a record high. This is due to the expansion of the Asian market (including China) from FY2007, as well as the recovery of the Japanese and the U.S. markets.

 Suzuki, Daihatsu, Isuzu, and Hino maintained the revenue estimates for FY2012, but the rest of the companies made downward revisions resulting in an 1.9 trillion JPY decrease to the ten OEMs' consolidated revenue to approximately 51 trillion JPY (up by 12.8% y/y).

 The estimated operating profits for the respective companies varied with Nissan and Honda announcing over 100 billion JPY downward revisions and Mazda announcing a downward adjustment as well. Toyota, Mitsubishi, Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI), Isuzu, and Hino, on the other hand, all made upward revisions to their operating profits. Suzuki and Daihatsu maintained their original plans. The total operating profit of the ten OEMs decreased by 152 billion JPY from the original estimate, to 2,578 billion JPY (an increase of 81.8% from last year).


Japanese OEMs' FY2012 outlooks (figures in shaded cells (bold) represent record high)

Automobile sales volume(1,000 units)Consolidated revenue(100 million yen)Operating profit(100 million yen)
FY2012 plan(original)FY2012 outlook(Upon resultsannouncementfor the 1H)FY2012 plan(original)FY2012 outlook(Upon resultsannouncementfor the 1H)FY2012 plan(original)FY2012 outlook(Upon resultsannouncementfor the 1H)
Toyota 8,700 8,750 Upward 220,000 213,000 Downward 10,000 10,500 Upward
Nissan 4,920 4,672 Downward 103,000 98,150 Downward 7,000 5,750 Downward
Honda 4,300 4,120 Downward 103,000 98,000 Downward 6,200 5,200 Downward
Suzuki 2,811 2,744 Downward 26,000 26,000 Unchanged 1,200 1,200 Unchanged
Mazda 1,090 1,075 Downward 22,000 21,700 Downward 300 250 Downward
Mitsubishi 1,208 1,128 Downward 19,800 18,300 Downward 700 800 Upward
Daihatsu 1,001 998 Downward 16,700 16,700 Unchanged 1,200 1,200 Unchanged
FHI 721 714 Downward 18,600 18,400 Downward 670 820 Upward
Isuzu 506 532 Upward 16,300 16,300 Unchanged 1,230 1,260 Upward
Hino 153 154 Upward 14,800 14,800 Unchanged 470 530 Upward
Total 24,256 23,735 528,700 509,850 27,300 25,780

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents (Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.


Related Reports:FY2012 plans for Japanese OEMs: aim for record high sales of 24 million units (June, 2012) Japanese OEMs produce 4.3M vehicles, up 14.9% globally in Jan.-Feb. 2012 YoY (April, 2012) Japanese new vehicle sales: eco-car incentives to salvage 2012 sales to 5M units (Feb. 2012)

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