China's new vehicle sales: OEMs' plans rise to about 20 million in 2011 up about 2 million from 2010

 In 2010, total auto sales in China increased by 32% year-on-year (including exports and excluding imports sold) to 18.06 million (up by 4.42 million), becoming the largest in the world for two consecutive years. Among them, passenger car sales grew by 33% to 13.76 million (up 3.43 million) and commercial vehicle sales increased by 30% to 4.3 million (up 0.99 million).

 In January 2011, CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) announced a forecast for 2011 saying that auto sales would increase by 10-15% year-on-year to around 20 million.

 Also in January 2011, the Market Research Department of the Economic Consulting Center, which is under the umbrella of the Chinese government-affiliated information think tank, the "State Information Center (SIC)," announced a forecast for 2011 saying that passenger cars would increase by about 14% (calculated to be 15.68 million) and commercial vehicles by about 9% (4.69 million), namely around 20.37 million in total.

 The sales plan for 2011 announced by February 2011 by OEM groups in China have already amounted to 19.5 million (including 14.8 million passenger cars).

(Note) 1.	Category of vehicle is based on the new classification introduced in 2005. Commercial vehicle and vehicle total include chassis and semi-trailers. This also applies to the following tables.
2.	The 2011 auto sales forecast of 20.37 million (15.68 million of passenger cars and 4.69 million of commercial vehicles) are calculated from the growth rate forecast for passenger cars and commercial vehicles (up about 14% for passenger cars and up about 9% for commercial vehicles from 2010), which Liu Ming, the director of Market Research Department of Economic Consulting Center, which is under the umbrella of the State Information Center, announced in January 2011.

 In 2010, production of vehicles in China totaled 18.27 million (up 32% year-on-year, or 4.47 million), which consists of 13.9 million passenger cars (up 34%, or 3.51 million) and 4.37 million commercial vehicles (up 28%, or 0.96 million), exceeding 18 million for the first time.

 In the meantime, concerning sales of new vehicles including exports (excluding imports sold), new passenger cars sold 13.76 million (up 33% year-on-year, or 3.43 million) and commercial vehicles sold 4.3 million (up 30%, or 0.99 million). The total auto sales were 18.06 million (up 32%, or 4.42 million).

 Among passenger cars, sales growth rate of minivans declined sharply from 83.4% in 2009 to 27.8% and those of sedans and hatchbacks shrank from 48% to 27%. On the other hand, sales of SUVs and MPVs grew remarkably from 47% to 101% and from 26% to 79%, respectively.

 Looking at figures by groups (please refer to the following table "Chinese OEM groups: sales results in 2009/2010, and plans for 2011."), SAIC Motor Corp. sold 3.56 million, exceeding the 3.5 million-mark, and took first place. Dongfeng Motor Corp followed SAIC Motor Corp. with sales of 2.72 million. Dongfeng Motor widened the gap from FAW Group (with sales of 2.56 million) and Changan Automobile Group (2.38 million), both of which sold more than 2 million, to 160,000 and 350,000, respectively (in 2009, the gap was 50,000 and 130,000, respectively).

(Notes) New vehicle sales do not include imports.

In 2010, China exported 545,000 (up 63.9% year-on-year) while it imported 814,000 (up 93.3%)

 In 2010, China's export of vehicles (including chassis for commercial vehicles and semi-trailers) grew by 63.9% year-on-year to 545,000, which consists of 283,000 passenger cars (up 89.2% year-on-year) and 262,000 commercial vehicles (up 43.3%).

 Among passenger cars, PCs (2/3box: sedans and hatchbacks) accounted for 178,000 (up 64.7% year-on-year, or 69,900), 8,700 MPVs (up 161%, or 5,400), 73,200 SUVs (up 171.8%, or 46,000), and 23,000 minivan (up 105.8%, or 12,000).

 Among commercial vehicles, buses accounted for 29,500 (up 45.8% year-on-year, or 9,000), semi trailers accounted for 19,900 (up 114.3%, or 10,000), and other trucks accounted for 213,000 (up 38.7%, or 59,000). On the other hand, exports of chassis for buses and for trucks declined by 33.2% and 28.8% year-on-year to 1,302 and 8,618, respectively.

 In the meantime, imports of vehicles increased by 93.3% year-on-year to 814,000 (up 99.7% year-on-year to USD30.64 billion on the basis of the financial amount). Among them, SUVs took first place, accounting for 351,000 (up 69.45% year-on-year) and PCs (2/3box) accounted for 344,000 (up 110%) and small buses 89,900 (up 150%).

 Concerning the country of origin, Japan took the first place (255,000, up 75.5% year-on-year), followed by Germany (239,000, up 140%), Korea (87,000), the USA (80,000), the UK (43,000), Mexico (31,000), Czech (25,000), Belgium (11,000), Austria (11,000), and Portugal (6,500).

 The sales plan for 2011 announced by OEMs or OEM groups in China by February 2011 (some have not announced) has already reached 19.5 million (Sales of OEMs and OEM groups that have announced their plans account for 96.2% in the total sales volume in 2010).

 Among them, SAIC Motor Corp. plans to sell more than 4 million. The top three OEMs in the 2010 new vehicle sales rankings, which include Dongfeng Motor Corp. (2.9 million) and FAW Group (2.76 million), plan to increase their total sales by about 880,000. In addition, BAIC Group plans to increase sales by 310,000 (or 21%), JAC Group by 220,000 (or 48.3%), and Great Wall Motor by 150,000 (or 38.4%), each aiming to boost sales significantly.

 Moreover, Dong Yang, the vice-president of CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), at the China ICE Industry Forum 2010 held in November 2010, forecast that China's auto sales would amount to 30 million in 2015 including 5 million of exports.

 In the meantime, Chairman Rao Da, the head of the China Passenger Cars Association, forecast that passenger car sales would decline more than 10% in China in 2011 (at least 2 million fewer than in 2010). Concerning categories of vehicles, the Chairman said that sales of MPVs/SUVs and import cars would increase slightly, whereas there are negative growth factors in 2011 for compact PCs (2/3box: sedans and hatchbacks) and minivans, including termination of subsidies at the end of 2010 and the rush demand in line with the termination. In addition, he pointed out various negative factors such as a slowdown of the Chinese economy, rising fuel prices due to high crude oil prices, restriction of new vehicle registration in big cities including Beijing in order to reduce traffic jams, and higher auto taxes.

 When we sum up the 2011 sales target of passenger cars announced by passenger car manufacturers (some have not announced), it has already amounted to 14.8 million (Sales of these passenger car manufacturers that have announced their targets account for 97.5% in the total sales in 2010). Among them, SAIC Motor Corp. plans 3.88 million, close to the 4 million-mark. SAIC Motor Corp. is followed by FAW Group (2.34 million) and Dongfeng Motor Corp. (2.03 million), both of which also exceed the 2 million-mark.

 Looking at each OEM further, four OEMs target more than 1 million - SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile targets 1.3 million, Shanghai VW 1.2 million, Shanghai GM 1.15 million, and FAW-VW 1 million, followed by Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. 920,000, Chery Automobile 800,000, Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle 772,000, Beijing Hyundai Motor 720,000, BYD Auto 600,000, and FAW Toyota Motor Sales 550,000 (including about 5,000 of midsize bus).

China: Passenger car sales results and plan for 2011 by OEM

 Examining the base model of passenger cars sold in 2010, passenger cars based on Japanese models increased by 740,000 from 2.51 million in 2009 to 3.25 million, while their share in the total sales volume declined slightly from 24.3% to 23.7%.

 Among them, the share of models based on Daihatsu vehicles increased from 1.5% in 2009 to 2.5%. This is because sales of vehicles based on the Terios (Zotye series, up 93,000), on the Xenia (Xenia, up 40,000), and on the Charade (Xiali series, up 51,000) grew remarkably.

 In the case of European model bases, vehicle sales increased by 710,000 from 1.86 million to 2.57 million, and their share in the total sales volume grew from 18.0% to 18.6%.

 In addition, the share of Chinese models (vehicles that Chinese OEMs developed independently) in the total sales volume remains almost at the same level, declining from 39.2% in 2009 to 39.0%. Among them, the share of SAIC Motor Corp. (SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile's minivan) shrank from 8.9% in 2009 to 7.7%. Although the overall sales of passenger cars grew by 33.2%, the sales of SAIC Motor vehicles increased only by 15.4%. (with respect to sales volume of minivans, the Wuling series continued to take the first place).

Passenger car sales by base model

 The following is the summary of passenger car sales in 2010 by category of vehicle and by model. Among sedans, the Lavida compact car, which Shanghai VW developed independently, topped car sales rankings with 252,000 (9th in 2009). The Lavida was followed by the Elantra Yuedong from Beijing Hyundai Motor with sales of 233,000 (2nd in 2009), the Jetta from FAW-VW with 224,000. Other models that sit in the high-sales rankings are the Excelle from Shanghai GM, the F3 from BYD Auto (1st in 2009), the New Bora from FAW-VW, the New Corolla from Tian FAW Toyota Motor, the Accord from Guangqi Honda Automobile, the Camry from Guangqi Toyota Motor, the Xiali 3box from Tianjin FAW Xiali Automobile, the Elantra 3box (former model) from Beijing Hyundai Motor, the Sylphy and the New Teana from Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle.

 Among hatchbacks, the Cruze from Shanghai GM's Shenyang plant sold 188,000 and was ranked as the bestselling hatchback (4th in 2009). The Cruze was followed by the QQ3 from Chery Automobile with sales of 152,000 (1st in 2009). Other models that sit in the high sales rankings are the F0 from BYD Auto, the Livina from Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle, the Focus 2box from Changan Ford Mazda Automobile, the Junjie FRV from Brilliance Jinbei Automobile, the Chevrolet Spark from SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile, the Wagon R+ from Changhe Suzuki Automobile, the Tiida 2box from Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle.

 Regarding SUVs, the CR-V from Dongfeng Honda Automobile sold 140,000 and took the first place (1st in 2008/2009). The CR-V is followed by the Hover H from Great Wall Motor. Other models that in the upper sales rankings are the RAV4 from Tianjin FAW Toyota Motor, the Highlander from Guangqi Toyota Motor, the Santa Fe from Rongcheng Huatai Automobile, the Tiguan from Shanghai VW, the Sportage from Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia Motor, the Tiggo from Chery Automobile, the ix35 from Beijing Hyundai Motor, the Qashqai from Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle, the Tucson from Beijing Hyundai Motor.

 Looking at MPVs, the Refine from Jianghuai Automobile sold 65,000 and took the first place for two consecutive years. The Refine is followed by the GL8 from Shanghai GM's Shenyang plant. Other volume selling MPVs are Xenia from FAW Jilin Automobile, the Odyssey (2nd in 2009) from Guangqi Honda Automobile, and the Freema from FAW Haima Motor.

 Concerning minivans, the Wuling series from SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile sold 1.058 million and took the first place (1st in 2009). The Wuling series is followed by the Changan series (723,000) from Changan Automobile, the Dongfeng Xiaokang series from Dongfeng Yu'an Automobile, the Hafei series from Hafei Motor, and the Jiabao series from FAW Jilin Automobile, which are volume sellers.

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