Motorcycle market analysis (Part 2): Report on advanced markets

Signs of recovery in Japan and U.S.; European market continues decline

2014/04/07

Summary

Motorcycle demands This report is the second half of the world's major motorcycle-production country analysis. The report is on the following developed countries: Japan, Europe, and the U.S. (please click here to read emerging countries report).

 After the recession, the motorcycle market shrank substantially in developed countries. Among such countries, sales in Japan and the U.S. have been gradually recovering to post a growth of 4.1% y/y to 460,000 units and 1.4% y/y to 466,000 units in 2013 (MIC), respectively. The motorcycle market has continued to shrink in Europe, where economic downturn continues. In 2013, sales declined by 14.1% y/y to 1.34 million units (ACEM). In addition, production has been shrinking in developed countries. In Japan, where major motorcycle manufacturers are headquartered, production volume fell by 5.4% y/y to 563,000 units, less than one-tenth of the peak year. The Japanese automakers' production in Europe also fell by 17.6% y/y to only 632,000 units in 2012.

Related Reports: Motorcycle market analysis (part 1): Report on emerging countries (Apr.2014)

Worldwide motorcycle demands (Yamaha estimate, February 2014)

(1000 units)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 forecast
Japan 723 567 434 424 445 442 460 463
North America 1,288 1,224 585 497 490 502 520 548
Europe 2,706 2,683 2,116 2,040 1,976 1,744 1,649 1,659
  Indonesia 5,000 6,443 5,692 7,236 8,001 7,064 7,744 7,800
  Thailand 1,572 1,703 1,536 1,846 2,007 2,129 2,004 1,800
  India 7,300 7,325 8,638 11,270 13,078 13,806 14,343 15,000
  Vietnam 2,703 2,710 2,745 3,070 3,562 3,109 2,793 2,800
  Taiwan 738 815 601 526 644 628 668 680
  China 16,119 16,215 17,420 16,090 14,034 12,630 11,627 10,697
  Other countries in Asia 2,289 2,483 2,809 3,417 4,204 4,537 4,365 4,468
Asia total 35,720 37,694 39,440 43,455 45,529 43,903 43,544 43,245
  Brazil 1,690 1,913 1,602 1,801 1,938 1,654 1,515 1,500
  Others 4,477 5,427 5,206 5,978 6,974 7,244 7,989 8,772
Others total 6,167 7,341 6,809 7,779 8,911 8,897 9,504 10,272
Global total demand 46,604 49,509 49,384 54,195 57,351 55,490 55,678 56,187

Source: Yamaha Motor's financial reports

Motorcycle production by country

(units)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China 23,592,594 24,476,418 24,654,624 21,316,197 20,467,600
India (Note 1) 10,512,889 13,349,349 15,427,532 15,721,180 15,426,953
Indonesia 5,884,021 7,395,390 8,006,293 7,079,721 7,780,295
Vietnam 3,091,500 3,506,600 4,070,200 3,919,600 n.a.
Thailand 1,635,249 2,026,918 2,046,168 2,608,173 2,218,625
Brazil 1,539,473 1,830,614 2,136,891 1,690,187 1,673,477
Taiwan 1,020,124 1,031,997 1,207,428 1,086,084 1,115,223
Europe (Note 2) 859,518 834,589 767,593 632,156 n.a.
Japan 644,901 664,175 639,187 595,473 563,309
Philippines 679,497 813,361 762,947 588,458 729,690
Malaysia 436,430 467,941 498,076 543,088 549,244
Total of major 19 countries 49,896,196 56,397,352 60,216,939 55,780,317 n.a.

Source:statistics data of each automotive industry associations and motorcycle industry associations.

(Note)

1. Production units for "India" are fiscal year data (April-March). That of 2013 is production volume from April 2013 to February 2014.
2. Data for "Europe" include production units of Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, and United Kingdom.




Japan: 2014 sales are estimated to increase slightly to 463,000

 In Japan, production of motorcycles peaked at more than seven million units in 1981. The motorcycle production in Japan has been declining, which was influenced by the shrinkage of the domestic market and the overseas transfer of production. In 2013, production fell by 5.4% y/y to 563,000 units. Among the manufacturers, Suzuki and Yamaha increased their production by 16.0% and 4.9% y/y, respectively. In contrast, Honda reduced its production by 29.8% y/y to only 142,000 units. In particular, it reduced its production of mopeds (51-125cc) by 93.0% y/y to 922 units, virtually not producing mopeds in Japan.

 In 2013, sales in Japan grew by 4.1% y/y to 460,000 units. According to the announcement by JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association) in January 2014, sales are estimated to increase slightly to 463,000 units in 2014 (sales in FY 2014 are estimated to decline by 0.8% y/y to 469,000 units [announced in March 2014]).

Japan: motorcycle production volume by Japanese OEMs

(units)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Honda 50cc and under 166,772 167,156 129,398 85,155 58,060 46,725 48,067 36,407 21,523
51-125cc 90,945 67,665 77,477 58,878 27,325 44,214 34,919 13,172 922
126-250cc 105,010 104,422 93,306 58,737 37,191 23,516 23,615 23,653 19,791
Over 250cc 227,524 207,175 165,966 134,569 73,603 86,552 94,092 128,882 99,564
Sub-total 590,251 546,418 466,147 337,339 196,179 201,007 200,693 202,114 141,800
Suzuki 50cc and under 90,763 106,043 106,416 72,044 48,133 36,106 48,099 48,610 46,062
51-125cc 65,556 21,880 25,334 14,762 6,169 9,255 5,594 5,500 5,243
126-250cc 31,527 46,812 44,411 35,517 15,671 16,508 15,424 21,531 24,091
Over 250cc 301,159 348,673 324,535 227,281 91,667 105,737 91,083 73,792 97,923
Sub-total 489,005 523,408 500,696 349,604 161,640 167,606 160,200 149,433 173,319
Yamaha 50cc and under 40,587 32,586 28,178 5,635 2,153 4,606 8,717 4,520 5,742
51-125cc 71,108 43,360 43,877 41,835 15,935 23,791 19,727 17,946 16,079
126-250cc 92,426 85,677 84,762 69,948 31,911 32,986 30,805 32,639 32,311
Over 250cc 267,133 290,938 273,502 231,047 113,866 121,351 103,572 110,750 119,786
Sub-total 471,254 452,561 430,319 348,465 163,865 182,734 162,821 165,855 173,918
Kawasaki 50cc and under - - - - - - - - -
51-125cc 32,734 16,963 32,139 12,906 7,995 3,370 4,267 2,951 5,426
126-250cc 50,311 39,132 47,210 28,661 40,611 35,940 34,792 14,089 11,907
Over 250cc 157,603 192,443 199,242 149,770 74,540 73,442 76,361 59,669 55,318
Sub-total 240,648 248,538 278,591 191,337 123,146 112,752 115,420 76,709 72,651
Others 50cc and under 427 461 344 94 71 76 53 1,349 1,613
51-125cc 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
126-250cc 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 8
Over 250cc 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 427 461 344 94 71 76 53 1,362 1,621
Total 50cc and under 298,549 306,246 264,336 162,928 108,417 87,513 104,936 90,886 74,940
51-125cc 260,343 149,868 178,827 128,381 57,424 80,630 64,507 39,569 27,670
126-250cc 279,274 276,043 269,689 192,863 125,384 108,950 104,636 91,925 88,108
Over 250cc 953,419 1,039,229 963,245 742,667 353,676 387,082 365,108 373,093 372,591
Total 1,791,585 1,771,386 1,676,097 1,226,839 644,901 664,175 639,187 595,473 563,309

Source: JAMA

Japan: motorcycle sales volume by displacement

(units)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Forecast
50cc and under 470,922 478,196 458,023 295,908 255,561 231,247 257,045 246,095 238,786 240,000
51-125cc 88,747 82,211 100,720 120,990 65,888 96,368 95,702 90,291 100,947 94,000
126-250cc 102,038 95,247 81,842 71,202 48,127 37,645 38,883 45,306 55,441 59,000
Over 250cc 76,841 82,388 81,868 78,041 63,763 58,108 53,362 60,715 65,289 70,000
Total 738,548 738,042 722,453 566,141 433,339 423,368 444,992 442,407 460,463 463,000
Source: JAMA
(Note) 1. Includes import vehicles. The figures for 50cc and under and 51-125cc classes are on a shipment basis, 126-250cc class is on a registered basis, and over 251cc class is on an inspection basis.
2. The "2014 Forecast" was announced by JAMA in January 2014. The FY 2014 (from April 2014 to March 2015) forecast, which was announced by JAMA in March 2014, is as follows: motorcycle total is 469,000units, down by 0.8% from the previous year (estimate), sales volume for -50cc remains at 240,000 units, sales volume for 51cc-125cc is 97,000 units, down by 6.7%, sales volume for 126cc-250cc is 60,000 units, up by 1.7%, and sales volume for 251cc- is 72,000 units, up by 2.9%.

 

Japan: motorcycle export volumes by displacement

(units)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia 82,378 64,981 91,528 50,277 52,179 40,791 38,856 23,275 19,362
Middle East 7,540 7,285 7,208 7,695 3,957 3,886 3,774 5,701 3,916
Europe 466,842 465,427 465,328 370,169 211,064 228,072 174,286 163,533 147,965
North America 625,803 642,209 498,044 409,493 182,641 106,251 179,228 184,165 178,283
Central America 17,371 14,865 15,444 13,816 5,280 5,348 5,968 4,770 4,231
South America 35,626 34,520 45,805 49,425 19,771 33,515 40,194 43,437 29,822
Africa 35,366 38,473 38,453 34,008 24,406 25,662 21,103 19,171 15,553
Pacific 61,297 66,266 70,986 67,304 44,581 49,939 41,576 35,111 31,765
Total 1,332,223 1,334,026 1,232,796 1,002,187 543,879 493,464 504,985 479,163 430,897
50cc and under 57,860 57,558 34,192 36,234 14,493 11,522 19,745 17,794 12,560
51-125cc 197,378 124,335 134,570 95,114 44,708 48,976 45,853 35,579 27,676
126-250cc 177,824 183,980 177,673 149,530 101,298 85,506 83,594 69,963 64,566
Over 250cc 899,161 968,153 886,361 721,309 383,380 347,460 355,793 355,827 326,095

Source: JAMA

 

 



Europe: 2013 sales fell by 14.1% to 1.34 million

 In February 2014, ACEM (Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles) announced that the 2013 sales of motorcycles in Europe (EU, EFTA, Turkey, and Macedonia) declined by 14.1% y/y to 1.34 million units (preliminary figures). It is less than half of the peak year at 2.76 million units in 2006. Countries where 2013 sales volume is high are France (254,000 units), followed by Italy (188,000 units), Germany (171,000 units), Turkey (164,000 units), and Spain (108,000 units).

 In 2013, the bestselling model was the BMW R1200GS at 21,151 units, followed by the Peugeot KISBEE 50 at 10,971 units, and the VESPA LX 50 at 10,739 units.

 In Europe, production volume in 2012 fell by 17.6% y/y to 632,000 units, which was as low as 40% of the 1.56 million units in 2001.

European motorcycle registrations and deliveries

(units)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Provisional
Austria 47,165 54,681 55,450 49,307 47,169 46,729 45,903 42,923
Belgium 47,569 51,577 46,013 42,563 37,973 37,172 33,814 29,468
Bulgaria n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 349 400
Cyprus 4,664 5,457 6,190 4,821 3,517 2,974 2,338 n.a.
Czech Republic 14,502 16,106 15,348 11,541 8,271 8,198 9,317 0
Germany 275,748 261,098 245,841 211,699 187,320 184,358 178,087 170,828
Denmark 12,040 14,295 10,362 21,851 19,804 14,146 12,796 10,031
Estonia 6,850 7,375 6,893 285 260 302 999 1,054
Greece 124,775 122,357 125,128 88,151 78,496 62,042 45,081 37,136
Spain 395,815 395,341 294,163 176,467 168,484 142,683 116,642 108,094
Finland 36,751 38,981 34,320 27,435 23,951 22,952 17,533 12,203
France 414,233 448,417 427,907 370,588 343,326 332,224 296,845 253,969
Croatia 23,003 27,148 28,596 15,287 9,293 8,078 6,447 n.a.
Hungary 12,048 12,781 12,285 4,169 2,453 2,091 1,957 1,778
Ireland 3,206 3,523 3,194 1,674 1,219 1,032 844 610
Italy 554,837 566,655 531,359 509,150 396,493 330,271 258,008 187,516
Lithuania 2,457 4,420 11,026 7,389 1,424 1,601 1,193 1,228
Luxembourg 2,035 2,021 2,030 1,993 1,957 2,190 2,177 2,642
Latvia 3,280 5,919 5,298 1,128 1,264 1,815 2,148 2,033
Macedonia n.a. 4,437 8,626 9,097 7,761 3,633 3,393 0
Malta 544 532 699 608 568 746 812 n.a.
Netherlands 63,566 73,664 86,555 110,684 103,489 93,788 79,110 68,923
Poland 48,685 99,487 146,690 103,276 80,903 78,217 67,749 56,143
Portugal 13,417 19,877 17,998 19,079 23,542 22,730 20,369 16,961
Romania 5,083 4,779 6,961 n.a. 440 2,992 3,531 2,045
Sweden 42,046 62,567 51,571 31,921 22,277 8,225 7,608 7,801
Slovakia 4,699 6,161 5,755 4,407 4,156 3,560 3,432 3,355
Slovenia 8,287 10,796 11,156 8,361 6,132 5,594 4,720 5,290
Turkey 389,503 191,897 189,572 83,647 111,341 193,606 176,873 164,132
United Kingdom 133,077 144,425 139,427 111,040 95,596 93,610 93,451 91,681
Total EU 2,689,885 2,656,774 2,526,413 2,027,618 1,788,879 1,707,559 1,493,526 1,278,244
Switzerland 48,584 50,595 51,760 43,543 41,603 46,611 47,884 45,774
Iceland n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Liechtenstein n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Norway 18,784 20,125 21,575 12,692 11,723 12,188 12,940 11,520
Total EFTA 67,368 70,720 73,335 56,235 53,326 58,799 60,824 57,294
Total Europe 2,757,253 2,727,494 2,599,748 2,083,853 1,842,205 1,766,358 1,554,350 1,335,538

(Source;) Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles

Top 10 models sold in the EU  in 2013

Brand Model CC class Type Units Sold
BMW R1200GS 1001-9999cc Motorcycle 21,151
PEUGEOT KISBEE 50 2-50cc Moped 10,971
VESPA LX 50 2-50cc Moped 10,739
YAMAHA XMAX 125 51-125cc Motorcycle 10,524
YAMAHA XP500 TMAX (530cc) 251-500cc Motorcycle 10,502
HONDA SH150 126-250cc Motorcycle 10,357
ROMET GY 50 2-50cc Moped 9,257
HONDA SH300/A 251-500cc Motorcycle 9,086
KYMCO AGILITY 50 2-50cc Moped 7,800
PIAGGIO ZIP 50 2T (Cina) 2-50cc Moped 7,607

Source: Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles
(Note). The EU top 10 models table is based on available information from all EU member states with the following exceptions: Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.

European motorcycle production

(units)
Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Austria 59,986 69,045 78,269 79,176 51,366 39,909 48,710 76,575
Czech Republic 1,607 1,015 2,140 1,551 749 782 1,155 2,319
Germany 100,952 106,340 105,522 105,672 82,438 99,244 110,084 101,690
Spain 249,472 253,710 245,403 115,734 115,602 123,123 95,399 44,019
France 259,200 232,427 215,453 172,526 109,705 92,900 74,359 56,963
Italy 695,000 708,550 692,500 641,000 477,000 455,176 414,000 330,000
Portugal 61 65 44 33 n.a. 0 0 0
Sweden 447 533 550 0 0 0 0 0
United Kingdom 34,582 42,078 32,371 33,923 22,658 23,455 23,886 20,590
Total 1,401,307 1,413,763 1,372,252 1,149,615 859,518 834,589 767,593 632,156

Source: Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles

 

 



U.S.: 2013 sales increased by 1.4% y/y to 466,000

 In 2013, sales of motorcycles in the USA increased by 1.4% y/y to 466,000 units (announced by MIC). Sales decreased to half from 880,000 units in 2008 to 440,000 units in 2010, but have then been increasing gradually.

US motorcycle sales

(units)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DUAL 45,250 27,210 23,351 26,483 30,592 32,979
OFF-HWY 146,779 105,103 80,962 70,046 69,395 73,371
ON-HWY 611,133 357,691 306,702 312,520 318,206 324,691
SCOOTER 76,748 31,451 28,483 31,850 41,105 34,742
TOTAL 879,910 520,502 439,678 440,899 459,298 465,783

(Source; Motorcycle Industry Council
(Note). The Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC) is an industry association in the USA, of which major motorcycle manufacturers in the world are members. The sales volume that MIC announces is the total of each manufacturer's sales volume, which is said to account for more than 75% of the entire market in the U.S.



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