2019 Sales Forecast in China (CAAM): NEVs to make up 1.6 million of 28.1 million vehicles sold

Drop in Sales of Low-End SUVs, Healthy Secondhand Vehicle Market

2019/04/02

Summary
CAAM’s 2019 sales forecast: 23.7 million passenger vehicles, 4.4 million commercial vehicles
New energy vehicle sales forecast: 2019 to see a 27.5% increase to 1.6 million vehicles
Chinese automaker's sales projections for 2019

Summary

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereafter referred to as CAAM), vehicle sales in the Chinese market in 2019 are expected to see year-over-year (y/y) sales equal to the previous year of 28.1 million vehicles (as of January 2019). New passenger vehicle sales are forecast for equal y/y numbers with 23.7 million vehicles, and commercial vehicles are expected to see a y/y growth of 0.7% with 4.4 million vehicles. Sales of new low-end SUVs are expected to decline due to the effects of decreases in income in medium and small cities. However, the consumer base that cannot purchase new vehicles will move to the secondhand vehicle market, thus energizing the secondhand vehicle market.

Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to continue to increase thanks to the vehicle purchasing tax exemption implemented in January 2018. Furthermore, starting in 2019, OEMs that manufacture 30,000 or more internal combustion engine passenger vehicles are required to manufacture or import a set percentage of NEVs, and both Chinese OEMs and foreign OEMs are releasing more NEV models.

Each OEM group’s 2019 sales target and production plan varies widely by group, with Dongfeng Motor Group and BAIC Group planning for major increases. Geely will instead maintain their 2018 levels of 1.51 million vehicles.