China's technology roadmap: Targets for energy-saving and new energy vehicles in 2030
EVs, PHVs to account for up to 50% of vehicle sales; focusing on lightweight material development
2017/01/23
- Summary
- Made in China 2025: Changing from a manufacturing power to a superpower
- New Energy Vehicles: Advances in size and weight reduction
- EVs and PHVs: Aiming for a maximum market share of 50% in 2030
- Fuel cell vehicles (FCV): Market size of 1 million vehicles in 2030
- Intelligent and connected cars: Setting sequential goals in anticipation of autonomous driving
- Drive battery technology: Achieving practical realization and mass production
- Lightweight technology: Focus on the development of lightweight materials to reduce weight of assembled vehicles
- Automobile manufacturing technology: Aiming for high-quality manufacturing through reductions in costs and cycle time
Summary
The Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers (hereafter referred to as SAE China) released a "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles" for China in October 2016. This roadmap was drafted by roughly 500 experts affiliated with the SAE China over the course of a year, and indicates the direction of energy saving and new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the Chinese automotive industry until 2030.
This technology roadmap is the newest comprehensive guideline for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs and takes into account China’s "Made in China 2025" initiative, its policy for becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. The drafting of the roadmap was consigned to experts affiliated with the SAE China by the National Manufacturing Strategy Advisory Committee (NMSAC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
The NMSAC is responsible for determining the general structure, strategy, and expertise required for China to make the change from being a manufacturing power to a superpower. The head of the National Manufacturing Superpower Construction Guidance Group, which handles the committee’s specific policies and measures, is Vice Premier Ma Kai.
- The roadmap consists of the following seven regions.
- Energy-saving vehicles (HVs and internal combustion engine vehicles)
- EVs and PHVs
- Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
- Intelligent and connected cars
- Drive battery technology
- Lightweight technology
- Automobile manufacturing technology
* This report is based on the SAE China’s document "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles."
Roadmap for the popularization of energy-saving vehicles and NEVs, and intelligent and connected cars until 2030
| 2015 (performance) | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese production and sales (units per year) | 24.66 million (Sales) | 30 million | 30 million | 30 million |
| Percentage of energy-saving vehicles | - | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Percentage of new energy vehicles | 1.35% | 7%-10% | 15%-20% | 40%-50% |
| Fuel cell vehicles (units) | - | 5 thousand | 50 thousand | 1 million |
| Intelligent and connected cars (Installation rate in new vehicles of autonomous driving technology that has been introduced) |
- | Driving assist and partial autonomous driving: 50% |
High Automation: 10%-20% |
Full Automation: 10% |
| (Source: Created based on SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles, various reports, and MarkLines data.) | ||||
Energy-saving vehicles (passenger vehicles): Automobiles that feature internal combustion engines as the primary power system, and exceed next-generation fuel consumption standards in comprehensive fuel economy. Low carbon vehicles such as HVs and alternate fuels including natural gas fall under this category.
New Energy Vehicles: EVs, PHVs, and FCVs. Lead acid battery vehicles are not included.
Related reports:
U.S. NHTSA: Announcement of guidance for autonomous vehicles (Nov.2016)
Automotive technology on the road to 2050 (Oct.2016)
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