Automotive technology on the road to 2050

ICEV, electrification, PHV, FCV, weight reduction, and ADAS

2016/10/21

Table of contents

Summary
Finite petroleum resources: Low-cost crude oil to be exhausted by 2050? (Society and Transportation Systems Committee)
Required CO2 reduction volume: Reduction of 27.6% in the transport sector, 39.5% in the domestic sector (Professor Daisho's lecture)
Population decline: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's land plan assumes population will decline to short of 100 million (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism)
Modernizing lifestyles with IT/ICT technology: Will ADAS and car sharing use continue to grow? (Society and Transportation Systems Committee)
What will happen to automobiles? Characteristics of and issues for next-generation automobiles (Future Automobile Power Systems Committee)
Thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines: Target set to exceed 50% (Future Automobile Power System Committee)
Sales forecasts of next-generation automobiles and critical technology by 2050

Summary

2016 JSAE Annual Congress (Spring) (May 2016)

This report will cover the lectures given by Professor Yasuhiro Daisho from Waseda University Graduate School at the Society of Automotive Engineers forum regarding important automobile technology in 2050. The subheading of the forum was "proposals for traffic systems and automobile power systems in consideration of social conditions in 2050." Professor Yasuhiro Daisho, Takashi Nakamura, Section Chief of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, National and Regional Policy Bureau; Researcher Taro Ishi from The Waseda University Environmental Research Institute; Masahiko Nakata of the Sustainable Engine Research Center Co., Ltd.; and Yoshio Maeda from Honda R&D Co., Ltd. participated in the forum. The Future Automobile Power System Committee (Chairman: Professor Daisho) from the Society of Automotive Engineers collaborated with the Society and Transportation Systems Committee (Chairman: Mr. Ishi) to conduct joint research on the traffic systems and automobile power systems of 2050.

It is believed that by 2050, due to limits on resources and measures to counter global warming, transitioning to new fuel and energy sources, as well as power systems is imperative. It is commonly said that new cars have a life expectancy of about 15 to 25 years until they are scrapped, and promising new technology released in 2030 will likely be in use until around 2050. A discussion session was held to consider critical long-term research topics in order to maintain and strengthen Japan's predominance in automotive technology.

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