Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 1): Overview of emerging nations

India surpasses China as world's largest motorcycle producer

2015/04/21

Summary

 This report contains an overview of the major motorcycle producing countries of the world. This Part 1 report contains information on developing countries including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Taiwan, and Pakistan, while the Part 2 report contains information of the developed countries of Japan, Europe, and the U.S.

 According to Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd., the 2014 global demand for motorcycles was 55.67 million units, unchanged from the previous year. This was the result of a decline in demand across all major markets, excluding India. Yamaha estimates a 1.3% year-over-year (y/y) increase in the 2015 global demand, with demand reaching 56.4 million units. India, which overtook China as the world's number one purchaser of motorcycles in 2012, is forecast to see an increase of 6.3%, surpassing 17 million units. Thailand is seeing demand growth for the first time in three years, which will grow by 12% to reach 1.9 million units. On the other hand, reduction in demand continues in China, which will see an 8.4% decrease, putting demand at 9.76 million units, below 10 million for the first time.

 The 2014 motorcycle production in China fell by 7.6% y/y to18.91 million units. This is a result of regulations that controls purchasing in urban areas, as well as a decline in demand in rural areas, the increased popularity of electric bicycles, and a decrease in exports. On the other hand, India, the world's second largest producer of motorcycles, saw production volume surpass 18 million units for the first time in the fiscal year between April 2014 and March 2015 (FY 2014). If these trends continue, India is expected to surpass China and become the world's number one producer of motorcycles in 2015.

 In Indonesia, the 2014 unit sales (shipped volume) was in a position to surpass 8 million units for the first time. However a reduction in the gasoline subsidies following the presidential elections had a negative impact, resulting in an increase of only 1.6% y/y, to 7.87 million units. In Thailand, economic slowdown and a decrease in income for agricultural households negatively affected 2014 sales, recording a y/y decrease of 15.1%  at 1.7 million units, below 2 million units for the first time in four years.

Related Report:
Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 2): Overview of developed nations (Apr. 2015)

世界の二輪車需要 世界の二輪車生産

Worldwide motorcycle demand (Yamaha estimates)

(in thousands of units)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Forecasts
Japan 723 567 434 424 445 442 460 450 457
North America 1,288 1,224 585 497 490 502 520 539 580
Europe 2,706 2,683 2,116 2,040 1,976 1,744 1,649 1,515 1,513
  Indonesia 5,000 6,443 5,692 7,236 8,001 7,064 7,744 7,686 7,600
  Thailand 1,572 1,703 1,536 1,846 2,007 2,129 2,004 1,696 1,900
  India 7,300 7,325 8,638 11,270 13,078 13,806 14,343 15,996 17,000
  Vietnam 2,703 2,710 2,745 3,070 3,562 3,109 2,793 2,711 2,613
  Taiwan 738 815 601 526 644 628 668 666 650
  China 16,119 16,215 17,420 16,090 14,034 12,630 11,627 10,655 9,764
  Other Asia 2,289 2,483 2,809 3,417 4,204 4,537 4,365 4,395 4,627
Asia Total 35,720 37,694 39,440 43,455 45,529 43,903 43,544 43,805 44,154
  Brazil 1,690 1,913 1,602 1,801 1,938 1,654 1,515 1,430 1,375
  Other 4,477 5,427 5,206 5,978 6,974 7,244 7,989 7,931 8,317
Other Total 6,167 7,341 6,809 7,779 8,911 8,897 9,504 9,360 9,692
Total demand 46,604 49,509 49,384 54,195 57,351 55,490 55,678 55,669 56,396

Source: Compiled from Yamaha Motor Company financial results

Major countries' motorcycle production volume

(units)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China 23,592,594 24,476,418 24,654,624 21,316,197 20,467,563 18,907,700
India (*) 10,512,889 13,349,349 15,427,532 15,744,156 16,879,891 17,042,863
Indonesia 5,884,021 7,395,390 8,006,293 7,079,721 7,736,295 7,926,104
Vietnam 3,091,500 3,506,600 4,070,200 3,634,500 3,682,500 n.a.
Thailand 1,634,113 2,024,599 2,043,039 2,606,161 2,218,625 1,842,708
Brazil 1,539,473 1,830,614 2,136,891 1,690,187 1,673,477 1,517,662
Taiwan 1,020,124 1,031,997 1,207,428 1,086,084 1,115,223 1,175,259
Pakistan (**) 736,861 838,665 828,576 819,556 771,507 n.a.
Philippines 679,497 813,361 762,947 588,458 729,690 754,125
Europe (***) 859,518 834,589 767,593 644,277 426,716 n.a.
Japan 644,901 664,175 639,187 595,473 563,309 597,058
Malaysia 436,430 467,941 498,076 543,088 549,244 440,157
Total 50,631,921 57,233,698 61,042,386 56,347,858 56,814,040 n.a.
Source: Compiled from statistical data from the automobile and motorcycle associations of each nation.
India's results are by fiscal year beginning in April and ending in March. The 2014 data in India shows 11 months of production data, from April 2014 to February 2015.
**  A fiscal year in Pakistan begins in July and ends in June in the following year (For example, the 2013 figures in Pakistan are data from July 2013 to June 2014.) Three-wheeled vehicles are included.
***  Data for "Europe" show the sum of the seven nations: Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The 2013 figures are provisional, as it includes data of Italy and Germany only.