Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 1): Overview of emerging nations

India surpasses China as world's largest motorcycle producer

2015/04/21

Summary
China: 2014 production drops for third straight year, down 7.6% y/y to 18.91 million units
India: FY 2014 production to surpass 18 million units, with significant increase for Honda
Indonesia: 2015 sales to exceed 8 million units for first time in four years
Thailand: 2014 sales drop for second straight year; 2015 sales to recover
Brazil: 2014 production decreases 9.3% to 1.52 million units; to remain flat in 2015
Taiwan: 2014 production increases 5.4% to 1.18 million units thanks to increase in exports
Pakistan: FY 2013 production falls for third straight year to 770,000 units
(Reference) Production and Sales in Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia

Summary

This report contains an overview of the major motorcycle producing countries of the world. This Part 1 report contains information on developing countries including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Taiwan, and Pakistan, while the Part 2 report contains information of the developed countries of Japan, Europe, and the U.S.

According to Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd., the 2014 global demand for motorcycles was 55.67 million units, unchanged from the previous year. This was the result of a decline in demand across all major markets, excluding India. Yamaha estimates a 1.3% year-over-year (y/y) increase in the 2015 global demand, with demand reaching 56.4 million units. India, which overtook China as the world's number one purchaser of motorcycles in 2012, is forecast to see an increase of 6.3%, surpassing 17 million units. Thailand is seeing demand growth for the first time in three years, which will grow by 12% to reach 1.9 million units. On the other hand, reduction in demand continues in China, which will see an 8.4% decrease, putting demand at 9.76 million units, below 10 million for the first time.

The 2014 motorcycle production in China fell by 7.6% y/y to18.91 million units. This is a result of regulations that controls purchasing in urban areas, as well as a decline in demand in rural areas, the increased popularity of electric bicycles, and a decrease in exports. On the other hand, India, the world's second largest producer of motorcycles, saw production volume surpass 18 million units for the first time in the fiscal year between April 2014 and March 2015 (FY 2014). If these trends continue, India is expected to surpass China and become the world's number one producer of motorcycles in 2015.

In Indonesia, the 2014 unit sales (shipped volume) was in a position to surpass 8 million units for the first time. However a reduction in the gasoline subsidies following the presidential elections had a negative impact, resulting in an increase of only 1.6% y/y, to 7.87 million units. In Thailand, economic slowdown and a decrease in income for agricultural households negatively affected 2014 sales, recording a y/y decrease of 15.1% at 1.7 million units, below 2 million units for the first time in four years.

Related Report:
Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 2): Overview of developed nations (Apr. 2015)

Worldwide motorcycle demand (Yamaha estimates)

(in thousands of units)

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015 Forecasts
Japan	723	567	434	424	445	442	460	450	457
North America	1,288	1,224	585	497	490	502	520	539	580
Europe	2,706	2,683	2,116	2,040	1,976	1,744	1,649	1,515	1,513
Indonesia	5,000	6,443	5,692	7,236	8,001	7,064	7,744	7,686	7,600
Thailand	1,572	1,703	1,536	1,846	2,007	2,129	2,004	1,696	1,900
India	7,300	7,325	8,638	11,270	13,078	13,806	14,343	15,996	17,000
Vietnam	2,703	2,710	2,745	3,070	3,562	3,109	2,793	2,711	2,613
Taiwan	738	815	601	526	644	628	668	666	650
China	16,119	16,215	17,420	16,090	14,034	12,630	11,627	10,655	9,764
Other Asia	2,289	2,483	2,809	3,417	4,204	4,537	4,365	4,395	4,627
Asia Total	35,720	37,694	39,440	43,455	45,529	43,903	43,544	43,805	44,154
Brazil	1,690	1,913	1,602	1,801	1,938	1,654	1,515	1,430	1,375
Other	4,477	5,427	5,206	5,978	6,974	7,244	7,989	7,931	8,317
Other Total	6,167	7,341	6,809	7,779	8,911	8,897	9,504	9,360	9,692
Total demand	46,604	49,509	49,384	54,195	57,351	55,490	55,678	55,669	56,396

Source: Compiled from Yamaha Motor Company financial results

Major countries' motorcycle production volume

(units)

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
China	23,592,594	24,476,418	24,654,624	21,316,197	20,467,563	18,907,700
India (*)	10,512,889	13,349,349	15,427,532	15,744,156	16,879,891	17,042,863
Indonesia	5,884,021	7,395,390	8,006,293	7,079,721	7,736,295	7,926,104
Vietnam	3,091,500	3,506,600	4,070,200	3,634,500	3,682,500	n.a.
Thailand	1,634,113	2,024,599	2,043,039	2,606,161	2,218,625	1,842,708
Brazil	1,539,473	1,830,614	2,136,891	1,690,187	1,673,477	1,517,662
Taiwan	1,020,124	1,031,997	1,207,428	1,086,084	1,115,223	1,175,259
Pakistan (**)	736,861	838,665	828,576	819,556	771,507	n.a.
Philippines	679,497	813,361	762,947	588,458	729,690	754,125
Europe (***)	859,518	834,589	767,593	644,277	426,716	n.a.
Japan	644,901	664,175	639,187	595,473	563,309	597,058
Malaysia	436,430	467,941	498,076	543,088	549,244	440,157
Total	50,631,921	57,233,698	61,042,386	56,347,858	56,814,040	n.a.

Source: Compiled from statistical data from the automobile and motorcycle associations of each nation.
*	India's results are by fiscal year beginning in April and ending in March. The 2014 data in India shows 11 months of production data, from April 2014 to February 2015.
**	A fiscal year in Pakistan begins in July and ends in June in the following year (For example, the 2013 figures in Pakistan are data from July 2013 to June 2014.) Three-wheeled vehicles are included.
***	Data for "Europe" show the sum of the seven nations: Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The 2013 figures are provisional, as it includes data of Italy and Germany only.

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