Chinese OEM sales outlook 2013

Passenger cars to surpass 18 million units and commercial vehicles to exceed 3.3 million units

2013/03/29

Summary

 

 According to each OEM's announcement and MarkLines' original survey conducted at the end of February 2013, the 2013 auto sales (including exports, but not imports) planned by each OEM will total 21.3 million units. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars will exceed 18 million units and those of commercial vehicles will surpass 3.3 million units. This figure is slightly higher compared to the forecast by China's government-affiliated automotive manufacturers association, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) (total vehicle sales: 20.65 million units including 16.8 million passenger cars) and by a government-affiliated think tank, State Information Center of China (total vehicle sales will increase by about 8% year-on-year to about 20.85 million units).

 Major foreign OEMs plan to sell 13.2 million units (many of the OEMs include imports in their forecast), up by more than 12% year-on-year, in China in 2013. This forecast is more than 4 points higher than CAAM's forecast of about 8%, which does not include imports. Japanese OEMs plan to increase their sales volume by 11.4% year-on-year.


 Concerning the import/export of vehicles, China is estimated to export 1.3 million vehicles and to import 1.45 million units in 2013.


 Moreover, according to a medium-/long-term forecast, China's vehicle sales will increase up to 30 million units in 2020.

 According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China's announcement on March 8, 2013, vehicle ownership in China has already amounted to 109.44 million units (including 93.09 million units privately owned) at the end of 2012, which was more than 20 units per 100 households; this ratio is expected to increase further to about 60 units per 100 households in ten years, or in 2022 (cited by the statement in January 2013 of Deputy Researcher (or saying "Research Associate") Wang Junxiu from "Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences", an editor of the blue book for China's automotive industry, "Annual Report on Development of Automotive Society in China (2012-2013").


 LMC Automotive's forecast on January 2013 indicated that the Chinese Light Vehicle sales (shipment + imports) will increase by 10.3 % y/y to 21.01 million units in 2013, to 29.68 million units in 2016. The 2013 growth rate will be above that of 2012 sales, 5.9%, because Chinese economic situation is improving as changes in political leadership have always led to government-driven stimulus in the past. Although, the company points out: "(for the 2013 market), downside risks remain with exports to the volatile European and USA markets, and also with political tension between China and Japan "

Related Reports: Sales in China rose 4.3% to 19.31 million units in 2012 (Mar. 2013)