⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

-According to a report by GlobalData as of Q2 2025, global light vehicle production in 2025 is estimated to increase by 0.6% YoY to 91.0 mn.

-The implementation of the new 25% US auto and auto-part tariffs has undermined our full-year global 2025 LV production outlook. Since our Q1 2025 report, we have cut the full-year outlook for 2025 by almost 1.5mn units to 91.0mn. Measured against a relatively weak 2024, annual growth is now anticipated to reach just +0.6% YoY - a downgrade of almost 2 pp from our earlier view.

-The entwined USMCA auto supply industry structure means that the tariff impact is most focused in North America, which accounts for over half of our 1.5mn unit cut to the latest global light vehicle production forecast for 2025. Elsewhere, exposure to the US market, combined with the adverse economic impact from the ‘tariff shock’, ensures that the key export hubs of Japan, Korea and Europe account for the bulk of the remaining full-year LV production forecast downgrade. In contrast, China's LV production outlook remains stable due to low exports to the US and a strong incentive-fueled domestic market.