China's technology roadmap: Targets for energy-saving and new energy vehicles in 2030

EVs, PHVs to account for up to 50% of vehicle sales; focusing on lightweight material development

2017/01/23

Summary

  The Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers (hereafter referred to as SAE China) released a "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles" for China in October 2016. This roadmap was drafted by roughly 500 experts affiliated with the SAE China over the course of a year, and indicates the direction of energy saving and new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the Chinese automotive industry until 2030.

  This technology roadmap is the newest comprehensive guideline for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs and takes into account China’s "Made in China 2025" initiative, its policy for becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. The drafting of the roadmap was consigned to experts affiliated with the SAE China by the National Manufacturing Strategy Advisory Committee (NMSAC) and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

  The NMSAC is responsible for determining the general structure, strategy, and expertise required for China to make the change from being a manufacturing power to a superpower. The head of the National Manufacturing Superpower Construction Guidance Group, which handles the committee’s specific policies and measures, is Vice Premier Ma Kai.

    The roadmap consists of the following seven regions.
  1. Energy-saving vehicles (HVs and internal combustion engine vehicles)
  2. EVs and PHVs
  3. Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
  4. Intelligent and connected cars
  5. Drive battery technology
  6. Lightweight technology
  7. Automobile manufacturing technology

* This report is based on the SAE China’s document "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles."

Roadmap for the popularization of energy-saving vehicles and NEVs, and intelligent and connected cars until 2030

2015 (performance) 2020 2025 2030
Chinese production and sales (units per year) 24.66 million (Sales) 30 million 30 million 30 million
Percentage of energy-saving vehicles - 30% 40% 50%
Percentage of new energy vehicles 1.35% 7%-10% 15%-20% 40%-50%
Fuel cell vehicles (units) - 5 thousand 50 thousand 1 million
Intelligent and connected cars
(Installation rate in new vehicles of autonomous
driving technology that has been introduced)
- Driving assist and partial autonomous driving:
50%
High Automation:
10%-20%
Full Automation:
10%
(Source: Created based on SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles, various reports, and MarkLines data.)


  Energy-saving vehicles (passenger vehicles): Automobiles that feature internal combustion engines as the primary power system, and exceed next-generation fuel consumption standards in comprehensive fuel economy. Low carbon vehicles such as HVs and alternate fuels including natural gas fall under this category.

  New Energy Vehicles: EVs, PHVs, and FCVs. Lead acid battery vehicles are not included.

Related reports:

U.S. NHTSA: Announcement of guidance for autonomous vehicles (Nov.2016)
Automotive technology on the road to 2050 (Oct.2016)



Made in China 2025: Changing from a manufacturing power to a superpower

  The "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles" (hereafter referred to as the technology roadmap) focuses on the automotive industry as one of the major areas of China’s Made in China 2025 initiative, which maps the required steps for China to become a manufacturing superpower, and was announced in May 2015 by the State Council of China.

  The Made in China 2025 initiative lists major fields that China will heavily promote, such as energy-saving and new energy vehicles, the next-generation IT industry, NC machine tools and robots, the aerospace industry, marine engineering and high-tech ships, advanced rail transit equipment, power equipment, agricultural machinery and equipment, new materials, and biomedical and high performance medical equipment.

  In October 2015, the National Manufacturing Strategy Advisory Committee released a roadmap for the major regions of the Made in China 2025 initiative. Of the major fields, those relating to the automotive industry were energy-saving vehicles, new energy vehicles (including intelligent and connected cars), and new materials, and these had more advanced guidelines. However, there was no information on vehicle production-related technology and how the new materials were to be applied to the automotive industry.

  In later sections of the SAE China’s technology roadmap that were released in October 2016 the trends of energy-saving vehicles and NEVs, including technology for weight reduction and production in the automotive industry, were released.

Timeline leading up to the technology roadmap

Timeline leading up to the technology roadmap
(Source: Created by MarkLines based on various media reports)

  On December 19 2016, the "13th Five-year Plan for strategic industries (2016-2020)" was announced by the State Council. It states that by 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles is to reach 2 million vehicles; total production and sales will exceed 5 million vehicles; and a consolidated, convenient infrastructure system is to be constructed. Including other industries, the plan calls for a production volume of roughly CNY 10 trillion.

  Furthermore, on December 20 the State Council announced the "Government Approved Investment Project Items." In the future, new production facilities for vehicles that use conventional fuel will be curbed, and the establishment of OEMs that produce conventional vehicles will essentially not be approved. Additionally, the State Council mandates that newly established OEMs engaged in producing NEVs conduct research and development of key technology relating to power systems as well as assembled vehicles.



New Energy Vehicles: Advances in size and weight reduction

  The technology roadmap highlights advances in size and weight reduction for energy-saving passenger vehicles. The energy saving passenger vehicles described here refer to those that use internal combustion engines as the primary power system, while having a overall fuel economy that exceeds next-generation fuel consumption standards, including low-carbon fuel vehicles such as hybrid vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles (natural gas, etc.).

  For energy-saving vehicles, powertrains will be optimized, engine friction reduced, and electronics technology such as advanced 48V power supply systems used to increase the level of energy conservation and fuel economy in conventional vehicles. The technology roadmap aims for energy-saving vehicles to have a market share in China of 30% by 2020, 40% by 2025, and 50% by 2030.

Average fuel efficiency target for energy-saving vehicles

2020 2025 2030
Market share of energy-saving vehicles 30% 40% 50%
Market share of hybrid vehicles Achievement of 8% 20% or more 25% or more
Average fuel efficiency target Passenger vehicles
(new vehicles)
5.0L/100km 4.0L/100km 3.2L/100km
Hybrid cars 4.0L/100km 3.6L/100km 3.3L/100km
Commercial vehicles
(in comparison to 2015)
10% reduction 15% reduction 20% reduction
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)


  Regarding the downsizing of passenger vehicles, specific goals were set for compact energy-saving vehicles*1. Compact and smaller vehicles will achieve a downsizing rate of 55% or more by 2020, 60% by 2025, and 70% by 2030. Furthermore, China will take initiative in introducing natural gas as alternative fuel sources.

*1): Vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 to 2.0 liters, and a length of 4.2 to 4.6 m. Representative models: Golf, Civic, Corolla, Tiida, Edo, etc.

Thermal efficiency targets

2020 2025 After 2030
Passenger Cars 40% and over (gasoline engines) 44% and over (gasoline engine) 48% and over (HCCI, etc.*2)
*2):Homogeneous-Charge Compression Ignition
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles and the MarkLines database)


  Passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles will use a wide variety of technology to increase powertrain energy efficiency and save energy.



EVs and PHVs: Aiming for a maximum market share of 50% in 2030

  In 2015, EV and PHV vehicle sales exceeded 331,000 vehicles, with ownership passing the 580,000 mark, making China the global leader in NEV sales. However, these vehicles only accounted for 1.35% of total vehicle sales in China for the year.

  The technology roadmap also sets a goal for popular EV and PHV models to be developed, and for them to enter the top ten in global vehicle sales by 2020. Additionally, through advancements in drive batteries and drive motors, the competitiveness of assembled cars is to be increased and lead to exports of related parts.

  By 2030, offerings of primarily mid-size*3 and smaller passenger EVs will be expanded to apply EV technology to family cars and public vehicles, along with leased vehicles and short-range commercial vehicles. As for passenger PHVs, compact cars (Jin Cou Xing) and larger models will be developed to extend the usage of PHV technology into private cars, public vehicles, and situations where daily driving distance is relatively low.

  *3): Vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 to 3.0 liters and a length of 4.6 to 4.9m. Representative models: Passat, Accord, Camry, Teana, Besturn B90, etc.

EV and PHV vehicle numbers, number of charging facilities, driving range and fuel efficiency

2015 2020 2025 2030
Percentage of total vehicle sales 1.35% 7%-10% 15%-20% 40%-50%
Vehicle ownership 580 thousand 5million 20milion 80milion
Number of charging stations (Units) 3,600 12 thousand 36 thousand 48 thousand
Driving range (Passenger EV) - 300km 400km 500km
PHV mixed mode fuel efficiency - 25% better fuel efficiency than internal combustion engine vehicles in 2020 10% better fuel efficiency than PHVs in 2020 20% better fuel efficiency than PHVs in 2020
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles and the MarkLines database)

Models and coverage

Vehicle type Target Technical method
EV Mid-size and below Family cars, public vehicles, rental cars, commercial vehicles (short range) * Increased battery energy density of drive batteries
* Increased efficiency of battery drive systems
* EV-specific chassis
PHV Compact cars (Jin Cou Xing) and larger Private cars, public cars, short-range * Optimization of Hybrid drive systems
* Predictive vehicle control based on map information, car navigation information, and V2X information
* System integration of power systems
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)


Fuel cell vehicles (FCV): Market size of 1 million vehicles in 2030

  In 2015, only 10 FCVs were sold in China, but the roadmap states that by 2020, 5,000 vehicles will be used for public services in specific regions. Moreover, this figure is to be further expanded to 50,000 by 2025 and include personal use in urban areas. By 2030, the roadmap sets a goal for a market size of 1 million vehicles, including large commercial vehicles. A list of NEVs*4 subject to exemption from vehicle purchasing taxes that was released through December 2016 mainly highlighted buses in the area of FCVs. However, in December 2016, a fuel cell vehicle model of SAIC's Roewe 950 mid-size sedan, was listed for the first time.

  *4):" The Catalogue of the Models of New Energy Vehicles Exempt from Vehicle Purchase Tax"

Market size of fuel cell vehicles, output, durability roadmap

2015 2020 2025 2030
Market size (Units) 10 5 thousand 50 thousand 1million
Output density (kW/kg) - 2.0 2.5 2.5
Passenger Vehicle Rated output (kW) 35 70 90 120
Fuel cell durability (hour) 3,000 5,000 6,000 8,000
Cost per vehicle - 300 thousand CNY and under 200 thousand CNY and under 180 thousand CNY and under
Commercial Vehicle Rated output (kW) 35 70 120 170
Fuel cell durability (hour) 3,000 10,000 20,000 30,000
Cost per vehicle - 1 million CNY under 1 million CNY under 600 thousand CNY under
Number of hydrogen stations - 100 300 1,000
Objective - For Public Service use For Public Service / private use Personal, commercial (large)
Technical Method * Fuel cell related materials
* Fuel cell stack technology
* System integration and control technology
* Power system developmental research
* Fuel cell vehicle design and system integration technology
* Improvement of output density
* Improved durability
* Cost reduction
* Hydrogen loading safety improvement
(Source: Created by MarkLines based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle sand various media reports)


Intelligent and connected cars: Setting sequential goals in anticipation of autonomous driving

  China is advancing its efforts for intelligent and connected cars. In April 2016, Changan Automobile conducted a long-distance autonomous driving test on public roads. Additionally, in June 2016, Shanghai’s Jiading District officially became home to China’s first national intelligent and connected car model district. The technology roadmap outlines a goal of formulating a rudimentary stage for innovation of intelligent and connected cars by 2020. Specifically, the roadmap states that the installation rate (new cars) of driver assistance (DA) technology, (level 1 autonomy, adaptive cruise control, autonomous emergency braking, etc.), partial autonomy (PA) technology (level 2 autonomy, autonomous driving within driving lanes, autonomous parking, etc.), and conditional automation (CA) technology (level 3 autonomy, .autonomous driving on highways and cooperative convoy driving, etc.) should reach 50%. This is projected to result in a decrease in traffic accidents of 30%, an increase in traffic efficiency of 10%, and fuel economy and emissions falling by 5%.

  Between 2020 and 2025, China will aim to develop a foundation for supply chains as well as intelligent and connected cars, and an intelligent transit system. DA, PA, and CA technology installation rates (new cars) will reach 80%, with PA and CA technology accounting for 25% of this. High automation (HA, level 4 autonomy) and full automation (FA, level 5 autonomy) autonomous driving will also begin. Traffic accidents should decrease by 80%, traffic efficiency increase by 30%, and fuel economy and emissions decrease by 20%.

  From 2026 to 2030, China will aim to complete its supply chain for intelligent and connected cars, and its intelligent transit system. The DA, PA, and CA technology installation rate (new cars) will reach 100%, and the goal for HA and FA technology (cooperative ITS, autonomous driving in city districts, unmanned driving, etc.) installation rate (new cars) has been set at 10%. In May 2016, the WHO reported that 260,000 people die annually in traffic accidents in China.

  Information technology from both intelligent and connected cars is to be used for their development. The report suggests that the key for this effort is V2X communications technology, cloud and big data technology, as well as information safety technology.

Milestones for intelligent and connected cars in China

Milestones for intelligent and connected cars in China
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)



Drive battery technology: Achieving practical realization and mass production

  The expansion of currently available lithium-ion drive battery technology to meet the increases in demand in accordance to the development of new energy vehicles, as well as research and development for a new lithium-ion drive battery, are laid out in the report as short to mid-term goals. Research on new drive batteries will also take safety, lifespan, and compatibility into consideration.

  For mid to long-term goals, the report highlights continued development to further improve new lithium-ion drive batteries; a focus on research and development of drive batteries to increase energy density and reduce costs significantly; and the practical realization and mass production of a new drive battery.

EV battery energy, output, life span, cost roadmap

2020 2025 2030
Cell System Cell System Cell System
Driving range (km) 300 400 500
Specific energy (Wh/kg) 350 250 400 280 500 350
Energy density (Wh/L) 650 320 800 500 1000 700
Specific output (W/kg) 1000 700 1000 700 1000 700
Lifespan (cycle/year) 4000/10 3000/10 4500/12 3500/12 5000/15 4000/15
Cost (CNY/Wh) 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)

PHV battery energy, output, life span, cost roadmap

2020 2025 2030
Cell System Cell System Cell System
Specific energy (Wh/kg) 200 120 250 150 300 180
Energy density (Wh/L) 400 240 500 300 600 350
Specific output (W/kg) 1500 900 1500 1000 1500 1000
Lifespan (cycle/year) - 3000/10 - 4000/12 - 5000/15
Cost (CNY/Wh) 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.1
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)


Lightweight technology: Focus on the development of lightweight materials to reduce weight of assembled vehicles

  Technical development of high-tensile steel and high-performance steel will be an emphasis until 2020 in order to realize a 50% usage rate of the materials in automobiles.

  An area of focus until 2025 will be the expansion of third generation automotive steel and aluminum alloy technology to realize lot production of aluminum alloy parts and the industrialization of aluminum alloys for automotive panels.

  Technical advancements for magnesium alloy and carbon fiber composite materials will be targeted until 2030 in order to utilize carbon fiber composite materials for a wide range of uses such as automobile bodies and parts.

Weight reduction rate

2020 2025 2030
Completed car weight reduction rate (in comparison to 2015) 10% 20% 35%
High Tensile Strength Steel 50% use of AHSS with a strength of 600 MPa or more 30% use of third-generation high tensile steel for body in white Use of steel with a strength of 2000 Mpa or above at a fixed ratio
Aluminum alloy
(Usage weight per vehicle)
190 kg aluminum used 250 kg aluminum used 350 kg aluminum used
Magnesium alloy
(Usage weight per vehicle)
15 kg magnesium used 25 kg magnesium alloy used 45 kg magnesium alloy used
Carbon fiber-reinforced composite material A fixed amount of carbon fiber will be used, costs reduced by 50% in comparison to 2015 Carbon fiber will account for 2% of the vehicle body weight, costs reduced by 50% in comparison to 2020 Carbon fiber will account for 5% of the vehicle body weight, costs reduced by 50% in comparison to 2025
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)


Automobile manufacturing technology: Aiming for high-quality manufacturing through reductions in costs and cycle time

  With regards to automobile manufacturing technology, ecology, intelligence, high-quality, and increased speed will be the pillars of development, and quality will be efficiently increased. Furthermore, a focus will be placed on magnesium alloy and carbon fiber composite materials for lightweight technology, in order to slowly establish manufacturing technology for lightweight materials. As for breakthroughs in powertrain and drive battery systems for NEVs, gear-processing techniques will be improved, and digitization and intelligent manufacturing equipment will also be realized.

Usage of lightweight materials in body panels

2020 2025 2030
Aluminum alloy/magnesium alloy ratio in completed vehicle weight Aluminum alloy 15% and more 20% and more 30% and more
Magnesium alloy 1.2% and more 2.0% and more 4.0% and more
Manufacturing of carbon fiber-reinforced composite parts Vehicle weight 25% less 30% less 40% less
Yield 90% 95% 99%
Cost of carbon fiber (per kilogram) CNY 100 CNY 70 CNY 50
Molding cycle time 3 min. 2 min. 1 min.
(Source: Created based on the SAE China’s Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles)


Keyword

New Energy Vehicles, Energy-Saving, Auto Pilot, Intelligent and connected cars, Lightweight technology, Automobile manufacturing technology

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