Global Top 10 Countries Sales Forecast (Q3 2021)

Global sales trend 80.7M in 2021, 85M in 2022, gradual recovery to 93M in 2023

2021/10/22

Summary

*An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter.

・According to LMC Automotive's forecast (as of Q3 2021), global light vehicle sales are expected to increase 3.8% y/y to 80.71 million units in 2021. A modest recovery is expected to begin in 2020 as a prolonged shortage of semiconductors slows the supply of vehicles to dealers, reducing inventories and increasing sales prices.

・As the impact of the semiconductor shortage spreads worldwide, the sales forecast for 2021 in major countries has been revised downward from the previous forecast (as of the second quarter of 2021) across the board. The top three countries, China, the U.S., and Japan, are expected to see sales increase by 0.7%, 3.3%, and 0.9%, respectively, compared to 2020, with only a slight improvement from the previous year, when COVID-19 caused a significant drop in sales.

・Global sales in 2022 and beyond are forecast to increase by 5.7% y/y to 85.29 million units in 2022 and by 9.9% to 93.74 million units in 2023. The situation of constrained vehicle supplies is expected to continue in 2022, and the pace of recovery is expected to be moderate.