Global Top 10 OEMs Production Forecast (Q3 2021)

Global production forecast revised downward by 8M to 76.88 M due to semiconductor shortage

2021/10/22

Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

・According to LMC Automotive's forecast (as of the third quarter of 2021), global light vehicle production in 2021 is expected to increase by 2.8% y/y to 76.88 million units. This is a downward revision of more than 8 million units from the previous forecast (as of the second quarter), as the impact of the semiconductor shortage, which was originally expected to improve in the second half of this year, is becoming more serious.

・Although the procurement crisis has affected the production of all manufacturers, the global production forecasts for 2021 show that Toyota (+8.3% y/y), Stellantis (+8.0% y/y) and Hyundai (+7.1% y/y) are expected to see some improvement from 2020. On the other hand, VW, GM, Honda, and Ford are expected to see a y/y decline, suggesting that the impact of supply network disruptions will be uneven.

・As for global production in 2022, it is expected to recover to a normal level (on par with 2019) from the second half of the year, and full-year production in 2022 is forecast to increase by 10.7% y/y to 85.09 million units. It is also expected to recover to 93.41 million units in 2023, up 9.8% y/y, as companies are expected to proceed with the recovery of reduced inventories.