LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (May 2021)
2021/06/08
- Summary
- Commentary
Summary
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The West European selling rate rose to 11.3 mn units/year in May, an uninspiring improvement on the, so far, subdued path to recovery in 2021. Several key markets were impacted by some degree of coronavirus‐related restrictions, but even for those with relatively relaxed restrictions, underlying demand remains mostly weak.
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German registrations disappointed in May, as the selling rate remained at 2.6 mn units/year. For the UK, the selling rate maintained 2.1 mn units/year. The Italian selling rate disappointed in May, falling below 1.5 mn units/year, marking the lowest level since June of last year. In France, the selling rate improved only slightly to 1.7 mn units/year – dealerships did open face‐to‐face appointments from 19th May though. Spanish PV registrations continued their upward trend in May, as the selling rate rose towards 1.0 mn units/year, yet results remain below satisfactory.
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In year‐to‐date (YTD) terms, registrations lie 25% below the same period in 2019, highlighting a strong H2 2021 is needed to make up lost ground. Thankfully, the outlook for the second half of this year does look more favourable. Consumer confidence has improved for the Eurozone, in aggregate, to a level not seen for over the past 18 months. Moreover, vaccine progress has certainty sped up in recent months (as of June 1st, 30% of Europeans have received at least one dose), and importantly the rate of daily injections has improved. Our outlook for 2021 remains mostly in line with last month; that is, over the remainder of the year, restriction easing, and vaccination roll‐out will support the economic environment broadly, and automotive market specifically. Key downside risks relate to any further restrictions on movement and a worsening of the auto chip shortage.
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