GM to concentrate resources on growth opportunities in North America and China

Developing autonomous driving technologies and ride-sharing services

2017/10/13

Summary

  In March 2017 PSA reached an agreement with GM to acquire the U.S. automaker's European operations (Opel/Vauxhall). GM also disclosed its plans to restructure international markets in May of the same year. It decided to cease sales of Chevrolet vehicles in India as well as manufacturing and sales in South Africa. By exiting from these unprofitable markets, GM will be able to focus its resources on growth opportunities in North America and China to drive stronger financial performance.

  GM is pursuing development of autonomous driving technologies and ride-sharing services to lead the future of personal mobility. The automaker plans to make a new investment in its Cruise Automation subsidiary that is developing self-driving technologies and contribute to Nauto, a start-up company that uses artificial intelligence (AI) for developing self-driving assistance technologies. In addition, GM and Lyft, a leading ride-sharing company, are expanding their vehicle access program for potential ride-sharing service drivers.

  GM's global vehicle sales for the first half of 2017 amounted to 4.69 million units, down 1.7% year-over-year (y/y). Sales in North America fell by 0.8% as GM strategically reduced less profitable daily rental sales while deliveries of SUVs increased. Volumes grew by 14.5% in South America, but sales in China and other regions decreased by 4.0%. The OEM recorded increased revenue and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) while net income declined by 11.4% to USD 4.3 billion. The drop in net income was primarily caused by short-term factors including the end of sales in India and transfer of operations in South Africa to Isuzu.

  In July 2017 GM forecast that its 2017 earnings per share (EPS) will be USD 6.00-6.50 (USD 6.12 in 2016) owing to successful operations in North America and China, growth of financial businesses, and continuous efforts to reduce costs.

2018 Chevrolet Traverse
2018 Chevrolet Traverse (Photo: GM)

Related report:
PSA: Acquisition of Opel from GM boosts PSA to second place in the European market (May 2017)
LMCA Client Alert: Analysis of the proposed acquisition of Opel by PSA (Feb. 2017)
North American International Auto Show 2017: U.S. OEMs (Feb. 2017)
U.S. OEMs expanding use of front pedestrian braking on new models (Aug. 2016)
GM: Strategies for the future of mobility (Jun. 2016)



Sale of European operations (Opel/Vauxhall) to PSA

  In March 2017 PSA reached an agreement with GM to acquire the U.S. automaker's European operations (Opel/Vauxhall). The sale was finalized in August of the same year. GM had been working to reconstruct its European unit, which recorded losses for 16 consecutive years from 2000. However, after the U.K. voted to leave the EU in a referendum in 2016, Opel/Vauxhall, for which the U.K. is the largest market, faced more adverse conditions. With a view that it would be difficult to restore its European operations, GM decided to sell Opel/Vauxhall to PSA and withdraw from the European market. By cutting off loss-making sections, GM is now able to concentrate its resources on growth areas, increase profitability, and investing in new technologies and businesses to lead the future of personal mobility.

Sale of European operations (Opel/Vauxhall) to PSA

Agreement on sale of Opel/Vauxhall On March 6, 2017, PSA reached an agreement with GM to purchase Opel/Vauxhall for EUR 1.3 billion and the U.S. automaker's European Financial Services for EUR 900 million. Once PSA completes the acquisition of Opel/Vauxhall, which recorded 2016 revenue of EUR 17.7 billion, PSA will be the second largest carmaker in Europe with a market share of 17%.
Sale of Opel/Vauxhall finalized Opel announced in August 2017 that the sale of Opel/Vauxhall by GM to PSA has been completed. (The sale of GM's financial services will be finalized by the end of 2017.) Opel/Vauxhall and PSA will unlock substantial economies of scale and synergies in purchasing, manufacturing, and R&D estimated to amount to EUR 1.7 billion annually. The goal is to generate a positive operational free cash flow by 2020 as well as an operating margin of 2% by 2020 and 6% by 2026.

Opel/Vauxhall and PSA to continue to work with GM

Cooperation in development and production Opel/Vauxhall and PSA will continue to work with GM in the future. In addition to development in the area of electric propulsion, Opel plants will continue to build vehicles for the U.S. carmaker including the Buick Regal (Insignia) and Cascada as well as the Holden Astra and Commodore (Insignia).
Opel Ampera-e built by GM in the U.S. Opel launched the Ampera-e electric car in Norway in April 2017 and plans to bring the model to Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland by the end of the year. The Ampera-e is a rebadged Chevrolet Bolt EV and built at GM's Orion plant in Michigan, U.S.


Restructuring international operations

  In May 2017 GM announced plans to restructure its international operations by discontinuing or reducing activities in underperforming regions. In India, the automaker will cease sales of Chevrolet vehicles while its manufacturing facility at Talegaon will continue as an export hub for Central and South American markets. In South Africa, GM will sell its manufacturing operations to Isuzu and cease sales and production of Chevrolet vehicles. GM expects these actions to result in annual savings of approximately USD 100 million and plans to record expenses of approximately USD 500 million in the second quarter of 2017.

  In Australia, GM plans to stop manufacturing Holden vehicles. The automaker will continue import and sales of the vehicles as well as providing after-sale services to Holden owners.

Discontinuing or reducing operations in underperforming regions

India:
Discontinuing sales while continuing production for export
In April 2017, GM discontinued operations at the Halol plant in Gujarat. Manufacturing of GM vehicles will continue only at the Talegaon plant in Maharashtra. According to a report in July 2017, SAIC Motor, GM's Chinese partner, plans to acquire the Halol plant to produce the MG brand vehicles.
In May 2017 GM announced that it would discontinue sales of Chevrolet vehicles in India by the end of the year. Manufacturing at the Talegaon plant will continue for export to Mexico and Latin American markets. GM started exporting the hatchback version of the Chevrolet Beat compact car at the beginning of 2017 and the sedan version in June of the same year. The automaker reported in August that exports from the Talegaon plant have tripled over the past year. Engine and vehicle kit exports have also started.
South Africa:
Discontinuing production and sales
In May 2017 GM disclosed plans to discontinue production and sales of Chevrolet vehicles in South Africa by the end of the year. A joint venture with Isuzu will be dissolved. Isuzu will purchase GM's Struandale plant and 30% stake in the joint venture. Isuzu will also acquire GM's Vehicle Conversion and Distribution Center and Parts Distribution Center. The Japanese OEM will make the joint venture to a wholly owned subsidiary and produce pickup trucks, which GM used to manufacture for Isuzu.
East Africa:
Discontinuing import and sales
In February 2017 Isuzu purchased GM's 57.7% stake in GM East Africa manufacturing and sales subsidiary based in Nairobi, Kenya. Isuzu will transform the company into a consolidated subsidiary. The Japanese truck maker will continue knockdown production and sales of Isuzu brand light- and medium-duty trucks and buses, as well as import and sales of pickup trucks. GM will end import and sales of Chevrolet passenger cars.
Australia:
Discontinuing production while continuing import and sales
GM's Holden brand discontinued production at its Port Melbourne engine plant in Victoria at the end of 2016. It also ended production of the Cruze compact car at its Elizabeth plant in South Australia in October 2016. Production of the Commodore large sedan will be discontinued at the plant by the end of 2017. GM will continue after-sale services as well as import and sales of Holden vehicles after ending production.
The new Holden Astra was launched in December 2016 to replace the Cruze compact car for which local production ended. Opel produces the new Holden Astra at its Gliwice plant in Poland for GM. The next-generation Commodore that is scheduled for release at the beginning of 2018 will be a rebadged Opel Insignia. Opel will build the vehicle at its Russelsheim plant in Germany to supply it to GM.

GM's unit sales in countries where operations will be cut

(Units)

Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan.-Jun.
2016
Jan.-Jun.
2017
India 92,059 86,825 57,565 36,518 28,949 14,690 6,851
South Africa 53,442 44,415 42,083 37,564 24,523 13,361 9,878
Australia 115,206 113,669 106,838 102,951 94,308 48,010 42,113

Source: MarkLines Data Center



Successful vehicle sales in North America and China

  GM's global unit sales for 2016 increased by 0.5% y/y to 10 million units (including sales of Chinese joint ventures such as SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling), marking a record high for the fourth consecutive year. The automaker's global market share decreased to 10.8% in 2016 from 11.2% in 2015. Strong new vehicle sales in North America and China more than offset the stagnant results in South America and other regions (except for China). Sales in China set a record with 3.91 million units, making the country GM's largest market.

  GM's global vehicle sales for the first half of 2017 amounted to 4.69 million units, down 1.7% y/y. While deliveries of SUVs increased, sales in North America fell by 0.8% due to GM strategically reducing less profitable daily rental sales. Volumes grew by 14.5% in South America where Brazil and Argentina saw signs of recovery in their automotive markets. At the same time, sales decreased by 4.0% in China, where tax incentives for passenger car buyers were reduced, and other regions.

  By brand, Chevrolet and Buick sales decreased by 1% and 4.4%, respectively, while GMC and Cadillac sales grew by 4.1% and 25.5%. Cadillac recorded strong sales, especially in China, where brand deliveries rose from 40,000 units (H1 2016) to 80,000 units (H1 2017).

GM's unit sales by region

(1,000 units)

Region 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan.-Jun.
2016
Jan.-Jun.
2017
North America (GMNA) 3,019 3,234 3,413 3,612 3,630 1,709 1,695
Europe (GME) 1,611 1,557 1,256 1,176 1,207 619 599
South America (GMSA) 1,051 1,037 878 645 584 269 308
China & other regions (GMIO) 3,616 3,886 4,378 4,525 4,587 2,171 2,084
Of which: China 2,832 3,156 3,613 3,612 3,914 1,815 1,766
Global total 9,297 9,715 9,925 9,958 10,008 4,768 4,686
Source: GM Press Releases on Feb. 7 and Jul. 25, 2017
(Note) PSA reached an agreement with GM to purchase Opel/Vauxhall in March 2017, but in the table above, sales in Europe were included in global sales for the first half of 2017. Excluding European sales, GM's global sales amounted to 4.087 million units for the first half of 2017 (4.149 million units for the first half of 2016).


GM's revenue grows while net income declines due to costs resulting from restructuring

  GM's revenue in 2016 increased by 9.2% y/y to USD 166.4 billion and EBIT by 15.9% to USD 12.5 billion. At the same time, net income fell by 2.7% to USD 9.4 billion. North America generated USD 12 billion of the total EBIT figure to account for a significant proportion. Losses in Europe and South America were drastically reduced compared to the previous year.

  For the first half of 2017, GM's revenue grew by 5.5% y/y to USD 74.3 billion. EBIT rose by 9.8% to USD 7.2 billion, but net income declined by 11.4% to USD 4.3 billion. The drop in net income was primarily caused by temporary factors including the end of sales in India and transfer of operations in South Africa to Isuzu.

  According to GM's guidance released in July 2017, the automaker expects to have strong business results again for the full year 2017 driven by successful sales in North America and China, growth of financial operations, continuous cost reductions, recovery of South American business, and new vehicle launches. GM's revenue and EBIT are expected to be the previous year's level or higher. EPS is projected to be USD 6.00-6.50, compared to USD 6.12 in 2016. Return on invested capital (ROIC) is anticipated to be above 25% (30.1% in 2016), and adjusted automotive free cash flow is expected to be up to USD 7 billion (USD 8.2 billion in 2016).

GM's consolidated results

(in millions of USD)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan.-Jun.
2016
Jan.-Jun.
2017
Revenue 152,256 155,427 155,929 152,356 166,380 70,399 74,250
Automotive 150,293 152,100 151,092 145,922 156,849 66,332 68,651
North America(GMNA) 89,910 95,099 101,199 106,622 119,022 56,730 57,775
Europe (GME) 20,689 20,110 22,235 18,704 18,707 - -
South America (GMSA) 16,700 16,478 13,115 7,820 7,223 2,982 4,257
Other regions (GMIO) 22,954 20,263 14,392 12,626 11,749 6,547 6,393
EBIT-adjusted 7,859 8,578 6,494 10,814 12,530 6,588 7,236
North America (GMNA) 6,470 7,461 6,603 11,026 12,047 6,129 6,946
Net income (attributable to common stockholders) 4,859 3,770 2,804 9,687 9,427 4,819 4,268
Source: GM Press Releases on Feb. 7 and Jul. 25, 2017
(Note) 1. Special items during the first half of 2017 had an unfavorable impact of USD 400 million primarily from restructuring charges of operations in India and South Africa.
2. GM classified its European operations (GME) as discontinued operations and excluded its results from the consolidated results when the company released the business results for the second quarter of 2017.


North America: Launch of more SUVs and sale of Bolt EV across the US

2018
Chevrolet Equinox
2018 Chevrolet Equinox (Photo: GM)

  GM is launching a number of new SUVs in North America, where demand for the vehicles is rising, in 2017: the compact Chevrolet Equinox and sibling GMC Terrain, and the full-size Chevrolet Traverse and sibling Buick Enclave. The automaker also released the new Buick Regal which is a rebadged Opel Insignia. The new Chevrolet Bolt EV, which offers 238 miles of range on a full charge, went on sale across the U.S. from August 2017.

  The 2018 Cadillac CT, which is scheduled to be launched in the fall of 2017, will feature Super Cruise hands-free driving technology for the highway as an option. This system is reported to be at the top end of Level 2 or close to Level 3 of the SAE Levels of Driving Automation.

New GM models launched or scheduled for launch in North America in 2017

Model Launch schedule Outline
New Chevrolet Equinox March 2017 This compact SUV is a sibling of the GMC Terrain and Buick Envision. The model features aerodynamic design, increased cargo space, and the latest connectivity and driving assistance systems. It comes with a 1.5-liter turbo gasoline or 1.6-liter turbo diesel engine mated to a six-speed automatic transmission, or a 2.0-liter turbo gasoline engine combined with a new nine-speed automatic transmission. It is produced at the Ingersoll and Oshawa plants in Canada.
New Buick Regal June 2017 A sibling of the Opel Insignia. The new Buick Regal is available in three body types: Regal Sportback sedan, Regal GS high performance sport hatchback, and Regal TourX wagon (TourX will be released in February 2018). The Regal Sportback and Regal TourX are powered by a 2.0-liter four-cylinder turbo engine, and the Regal GS is equipped with a 3.5-liter V6 engine. The new Regal is imported from Germany.
New Chevrolet Traverse July 2017 This seven-/eight-passenger full-size SUV is a sibling of the Buick Enclave. The model comes equipped with a 3.6-liter V6 engine mated to a nine-speed automatic transmission. The sporty RS is powered by a 2.0-liter turbo engine. It is built at the Lansing Delta Township plant in Michigan.
New GMC Terrain August 2017 This compact SUV is a sibling of the Chevrolet Equinox and Buick Envision. The model comes with a 1.5-/2.0-liter turbo gasoline engine combined with a nine-speed automatic transmission, or a 1.6-liter turbo diesel engine mated to a six-speed automatic transmission. It is manufactured at the San Luis Potosi plant in Mexico.
New Buick Enclave Fall 2017 This seven- to eight-passenger full-size SUV is a sibling of the Chevrolet Traverse. Within a visually lower and slimmer body, the model boasts more interior space and a longer wheelbase than the previous generation. It comes with a 3.6-liter V6 engine mated with a nine-speed automatic transmission. It will continue to be built at the Lansing Delta Township plant in Michigan.

New GM models launched in North America in 2016

New Buick LaCrosse July 2016 A full-size sedan. The model is equipped with a 3.6-liter V6 engine. An eAssist light electrification system coupled with a 2.5-liter four-cylinder engine will be available starting in the fall of 2017. It will be produced at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant in Michigan.
Buick Envision Fall 2016 This compact SUV is a sibling of the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain. The model is powered by a 2.0-liter four-cylinder turbo or 2.5-liter four-cylinder engine. It is imported from China.
Chevrolet Bolt EV December 2016 This subcompact electric vehicle (EV) offers 238 miles of range on a full charge. The EV was launched in California and Oregon first. It went on sale across the U.S. starting in August 2017. It is built at the Orion plant in Michigan.

Super Cruise autonomous driving technology to debut in the Cadillac CT6

The 2018 Cadillac CT6, which will be launched in the fall of 2017, will feature Super Cruise hands-free driving technology for the highway as an option. This system uses the real-time data from the cameras and GPS sensors with precision LiDAR map data for the first time and enables automatic control of steering and speed during highway driving for the first time in a production vehicle. It also utilizes the industry's first driver attention system. This system uses a camera located on the top of the steering column that monitors the driver's head position when Super Cruise is engaged. If the system detects the driver has turned their attention away from the road ahead, it will issue a prompt.
The function of Super Cruise is close to SAE Level 3, but it is positioned as Level 2 because it requires a driver to always monitor driving behavior.


Bringing more SUVs, MPVs and luxury vehicles to China

  In March 2017, GM announced that it is strengthening its China strategy. The automaker is bringing new SUVs, MPVs, and luxury vehicles to the country to enhance its presence in key growth segments. Regarding new energy vehicles (NEVs), GM will start production of electric vehicles in China by 2019. According to its electrification plan in the country released in September 2016, the company will roll out 10 electric and hybrid vehicles through 2020.

GM strengthens China strategy (announced in March 2017)

Product upgrades GM is launching 18 new and refreshed vehicles in China in 2017, half of which will be popular SUVs and MPVs. Buick vehicles will account for one-third of new models and half of refreshed models. Chevrolet will introduce 20 new and refreshed models through 2020. In 2016, Cadillac deliveries in China topped 100,000 units for the first time. Cadillac is expected to maintain its double-digit growth in 2017.
New energy vehicles From 2017 through 2020, two-thirds of NEVs launched by GM in China will be fully new and unique brands rather than variants of existing internal combustion engine vehicles. Production of electric vehicles is scheduled to start in China by 2019. (See the table below for details)
Innovative technology GM has been testing Super Cruse hands-free driving technology for China at its Advanced Technical Center in Shanghai. Super Cruise is set to be introduced in the country in the near future following its global debut in the Cadillac CT6 scheduled for release in the U.S. and Canada.
Opening battery assembly plant GM is building a battery assembly plant in Jinqiao, Shanghai with an investment of RMB 1.72 billion. The company plans to start operations at the new plant by the end of 2017 to produce lithium-ion battery packs for NEVs.
Strategic investment in car-sharing company In October 2016 GM made a strategic investment in Yi Wei Xing, a Chinese car-sharing service provider, to explore the country's sharing market. Yi Wei Xing has established itself as the top provider of technology solutions in China for the car-sharing business.

GM's electrification plans in China (announced in September 2016)

GM plans to roll out 10 EVs and HVs in China through 2020.
2016 Introduced Buick LaCrosse Hybrid, Chevrolet Malibu XL Hybrid, and Cadillac CT6 Plug-in hybrid
2017

Adopt start/stop systems for all engines used by SAIC-GM
Introduce Buick Velite 5 extended-range electric vehicle

2018 Start to install 48V micro hybrid systems in new models
2018-2019 Introduce a plug-in hybrid model each under Buick and Chevrolet brand
2019 Launch a next-generation Buick electric vehicle
2020 Expects annual sales of 150,000 new energy vehicles
2025 Expects annual sales of 500,000 new energy vehicles

GM enhances manufacturing capability in China

Completion of phase II construction at Wuhan plant In April 2017, SAIC-GM completed the second phase of construction at its Wuhan plant with an investment of RMB 7.5 billion and started production. A stamping, body, paint shop, assembly plant, and auxiliary facilities were built to enable manufacturing of six models based on four different platforms simultaneously. The plant is now building the Chevrolet Equinox compact SUV.
Investment of RMB 2.5 billion for production of PHVs and EVs In May 2017 it was reported that SAIC-GM invested RMB 2,514 million for renovation projects at its Wuhan plant to produce electric vehicles. RMB 1.787 billion will be allocated for production of Buick plug-in hybrid vehicles and RMB 727 million will be used for building pure electric vehicles. When the projects are completed, the new line at the Wuhan plant will have an annual production capacity for 150,000 units consisting of 110,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 40,000 electric vehicles.
Expansion of engine plant In November 2016 SAIC-GM-Wuling completed the fifth phase of construction to expand its engine plant in Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region four months ahead of schedule. RMB 1.43 billion was invested to establish an annual production capacity for 360,000 engines at the Baojun plant.
Increasing production capacity in Qingdao In March 2017 the government of Qingdao City announced that SAIC-GM-Wuling would increase its production capacity in Qingdao West Coast New Area. The joint venture plans to invest RMB 1 billion to build a passenger car manufacturing line with an annual capacity of 200,000 units.

SAIC-GM-Wuling starts operations at new plant in Indonesia

Opening of new plant with an annual capacity of 120,000 units In July 2017 SAIC-GM-Wuling started operations at its new plant in Cikarang, Indonesia. The joint venture invested USD 700 million to build a facility with an annual production capacity of 120,000 units. The Wuling Confero S MPV is the first product to roll off the assembly line. The model is based on the Wuling Hongguang that is manufactured in China.


GM advancing autonomous driving technologies and ride-sharing services

  GM assumes that advanced technologies such as autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI), as well as new services like ride-sharing services will be essential to lead the future of personal mobility, and is advancing innovative technologies and services. For autonomous driving, the automaker will make a new investment in its Cruise Automation subsidiary and put money into Nauto, which is developing self-driving assistance technologies using AI. Regarding new mobility services, GM and Lyft, a ride-sharing company that GM invested in, will expand their vehicle access program for prospective ride-sharing service drivers. GM is also deploying Maven Gig, the automaker's own car-rental services, across the U.S.

Developing self-driving technologies with Cruise Automation

Investing USD 14 million in Cruise Automation In April 2017 GM announced that it will invest USD 14 million in its Cruise Automation subsidiary, which the automaker acquired in March 2016, to expand its development capability for self-driving technologies. The new investment will include repurposing an existing facility in San Francisco that will double Cruise Automation's research and development space. The Cruise Automation team plans to move into the new space by the end of 2017 and hire 1,100 new employees over the course of the next five years.
Production of self-driving Chevrolet Bolt EV test vehicles In June 2017, GM announced that it had completed production of 130 Chevrolet Bolt EV test vehicles equipped with its self-driving technology at its Orion plant in Michigan. As a result, GM's self-driving test fleet grew to 180 units. Cruise Automation will use the vehicles for self-driving testing in San Francisco, California; Scottsdale, Arizona; and Warren, Michigan.

Investing in Nauto, a start-up company developing self-driving assistance technologies

Self-driving assistance technologies using AI In July 2017, GM invested in Nauto, a U.S. start-up company that is developing self-driving assistance technologies using AI. (The investment amount was not disclosed.) Nauto raised USD 159 million from GM, BMW, Toyota, Softbank, and Silicon Valley venture capital firm Greylock Partners. Nauto can capture data from sensors and cameras that are aimed inside and outside the vehicle, and send it to the cloud. Through analyzing and evaluating the data with AI, the information can be used to provide information on safe driving and develop autonomous driving technologies.

Partnership with IBM to create OnStar Go cognitive mobility platform

Bringing OnStar and Watson cognitive system together In October 2016 GM and IBM announced a partnership to bring the power of the OnStar telematics system and IBM's Watson cognitive system together to create OnStar Go, the auto industry's first cognitive mobility platform. OnStar Go has been introduced in vehicles since early 2017. Watson learns the driver's preferences as well as surrounding conditions and assists the driver with individualized information. For example, OnStar Go will remind a husband to pick up an item that his wife asked him to buy at the pharmacy on the way home.

Expanding car rental services for ride-sharing service drivers

Vehicle access program for ride-sharing services In July 2016, GM and Lyft announced the expansion of their Express Drive short-term vehicle access program to San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Denver. Program members will have access to vehicles including the Chevrolet Bolt EV and an extended-range electric Chevrolet Volt. Express Drive offers opportunities for prospective Lyft ride-sharing service drivers to rent a car. The expansion follows successful launches in Chicago, Boston, Washington D.C., and Baltimore that were carried out in March 2016.
Car rental service for ride-sharing and other businesses GM first launched Maven Gig car rental service in San Francisco in January 2016 and started expanding the program across the U.S. from August 2017. Freelance drivers have access to Maven Gig vehicles for flat weekly rates (USD 189-229 depending on models) that include the car, unlimited miles, insurance, and maintenance. The vehicles can be used for ride-sharing, passenger transportation, food delivery, and package delivery services. Maven Gig has a number of partners that offer various services.


Sales Forecast by LMC Automotive: GM's sales to fall until 2019, return to growth and reach 6.61 million units in 2020

(LMC Automotive, Q3 2017)

  According to LMC Automotive's latest forecast (Q3 2017), GM's light vehicles sales are expected to be 6.58 million units in 2017, down by 3.4% from 2016. With the sale of the Opel brand - and by extension, the decision to pull out of Europe - global GM sales will ultimately experience a sharp decrease as Opel brand sales totaled around 1.3 million in 2016. GM's departure from Europe, albeit with some remaining presence in Russia through Chevrolet, could be seen as a retreat. This is mirrored by GM's recent decision to discontinue all Chevrolet sales in India by the end of the year, although local production in the country will continue to serve as a source of exports. Given the financial burden of continuing in its current guise, the decision to pull out of these locations stands to reason, and may ultimately strengthen the company globally. LMC Automotive forecasts that GM's global sales will continue to fall until 2019, but then increase to 6.61 million units in 2020.

  While the U.S. will remain GM's largest market throughout the forecast horizon, sales in the country are expected to decrease to 2.77 million in 2020, down 4.1% from 2017. At the same time, sales in China will grow to 1.9 million units in 2020, up 2.1% over 2017. Sales will also expand in Brazil, where GM's sales will reach approximately 420,000 units in 2020, a 12.3% increase compared with 2017.

GM's Light Vehicle Sales Forecast (LMC Automotive, Q3 2017)

(Click here to download major 54 countries forecast table.)

(Units)

COUNTRY GLOBAL
MAKE
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GM Group Chevrolet 5,251,199 4,724,511 4,475,247 4,259,856 4,195,672 4,110,655 4,186,833
Buick 742,823 951,129 1,212,559 1,229,479 1,094,549 1,150,815 1,138,443
GMC 612,379 679,263 661,433 662,708 667,756 652,353 671,765
Cadillac 264,642 276,144 317,004 334,663 373,814 404,390 472,625
Opel 2 1,597 9,310 15,122 73,591 83,056 76,018
GMK 35,245 36,307 38,150 31,460 36,388 36,353 34,752
Isuzu 38,908 36,629 26,521 12,377 21,872 23,263 25,961
Daewoo 42,901 50,557 33,459 1,777 2,343 2,739 2,951
Holden 46,671 41,813 38,522 35,688 3,783 0 0
Wuling 9,709 5,186 5,708 253 0 0 0
Pontiac 14 19 8 8 0 0 0
Saturn 3 0 4 1 0 0 0
Hummer 37 22 11 1 0 0 0
Oldsmobile 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
GM Group Total 7,044,534 6,803,177 6,817,937 6,583,393 6,469,768 6,463,624 6,609,348
USA Chevrolet 2,076,128 2,188,156 2,171,041 2,066,704 1,985,360 1,921,300 1,902,503
GMC 501,854 558,697 546,628 539,167 548,093 532,575 550,961
Cadillac 170,750 175,267 170,006 147,505 145,749 161,893 178,432
Buick 180,071 155,506 143,913 119,958 121,882 114,136 105,256
Opel 0 0 7,153 7,937 31,790 37,851 31,222
Holden 6,206 4,740 4,034 4,457 2,118 0 0
USA sub-total 2,935,009 3,082,366 3,042,775 2,885,728 2,834,992 2,767,755 2,768,374
China Buick 543,115 778,694 1,053,089 1,098,330 962,932 1,027,344 1,025,125
Chevrolet 1,142,830 895,037 716,109 594,624 640,517 583,518 604,834
Cadillac 74,223 78,307 125,089 164,108 206,286 216,375 266,943
Hummer 21 11 0 1 0 0 0
Holden 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
China sub-total 1,760,195 1,752,049 1,894,287 1,857,063 1,809,735 1,827,237 1,896,902
Brazil Chevrolet 578,796 387,985 345,864 374,068 373,359 385,022 419,936
Cadillac 61 13 16 24 36 37 37
Opel 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brazil sub-total 578,859 387,998 345,880 374,092 373,395 385,059 419,973
Canada Chevrolet 149,955 153,650 156,993 177,008 168,349 159,944 157,873
GMC 76,246 85,757 84,666 96,463 90,140 86,860 87,262
Cadillac 10,538 12,249 12,162 13,190 11,867 13,820 14,873
Buick 13,062 11,679 13,520 9,575 8,006 7,757 6,787
Opel 0 0 0 32 2,309 3,373 2,958
Canada sub-total 249,801 263,335 267,341 296,268 280,671 271,754 269,753
Mexico Chevrolet 208,088 246,006 298,100 250,660 227,813 219,471 224,165
GMC 5,936 6,597 7,874 6,669 6,856 7,638 7,352
Opel 0 0 0 0 1,323 2,945 2,644
Cadillac 1,414 1,866 1,849 1,283 1,362 1,802 2,289
Buick 1,528 1,687 1,894 1,606 1,729 1,578 1,275
Mexico sub-total 216,966 256,156 309,717 260,218 239,083 233,434 237,725
Uzbekistan Chevrolet 125,891 120,835 119,228 149,100 162,686 170,773 178,864
GMK 27,901 24,271 26,838 22,424 27,355 26,978 25,395
Daewoo 19,169 37,462 27,616 0 0 0 0
Uzbekistan sub-total 172,961 182,568 173,682 171,524 190,041 197,751 204,259
Korea Chevrolet 142,091 142,866 168,900 136,073 115,970 102,487 104,274
GMK 7,277 11,980 11,240 8,969 8,961 9,301 9,287
Cadillac 503 886 1,102 1,747 1,562 1,835 1,906
Buick 5,013 3,558 135 8 0 0 0
Korea sub-total 154,884 159,290 181,377 146,797 126,493 113,623 115,467
Argentina Chevrolet 81,984 85,584 99,684 114,757 105,244 112,361 114,757
Russia Chevrolet 151,801 67,903 40,094 45,222 55,308 73,302 83,786
Cadillac 1,324 1,141 1,274 1,485 1,912 3,373 3,814
Daewoo 9,069 2,311 754 0 0 0 0
Russia sub-total 162,194 71,355 42,122 46,707 57,220 76,675 87,600
Australia Chevrolet 69,075 67,487 60,764 49,423 50,597 50,999 49,870
Opel 0 1,434 1,927 6,861 34,528 35,061 35,320
Holden 37,017 34,030 31,617 28,080 1,665 0 0
Australia sub-total 106,092 102,951 94,308 84,364 86,790 86,060 85,190

Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Sales Forecast (Quarter 3 2017)"
*Data is only available countries, so figures in the chart do not match the GM Group Total numbers.
* Figures in the table above exclude unit sales of Baojung and Wooling brand vehicles in China which LMC Automotive includes in SAIC Group's sales volume.
(Note) 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
For more detailed information or inquiries about forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

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Key words
GM, Opel, PSA, North America, China, SUV, EV, Bolt, electrification, autonomous driving, mobility, ride sharing

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