India (Part 1): Extension of reform measures drives sales growth

OEMs striving to launch midsize passenger cars in market where small cars prevail

2014/10/24

Summary

Passenger Vehicles sales by segment in India This report contains an overview of the automotive market in India. India's domestic sales in the fiscal year (FY) 2013-14 (April 2013 to March 2014) declined by 9.3% year-over-year (y/y). It was the first decline in five years. With the election victory by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2014, India's vehicle sales started to increase y/y in May in the passenger car market and in June in the overall automobile market. The former administration had decided on a temporary excise tax cut through June. The tax cut measure was extended to the end of December under the new administration.

 More than 60% of the present passenger vehicle market in India is occupied by compact and smaller vehicles with the overall length below 4 meters. Vehicles in the midsize segment sell well too. For instance, Honda saw a boost in its City sale while Maruti Suzuki launched the CIAZ midsize sedan. Maruti Suzuki has plans to launch three more midsize models. Toyota reportedly is developing midsize sedans for India. The present market situation and plans among OEMs in India will be summarized in the upcoming India report (Part 2).


Related Reports: Suzuki: Plans to sell 3 million units in India and increase local ASEAN production (Oct. 2014)



Year-over-year sales increase seen in India after June 2014

 Automobile sales volume in India in FY 2013-14 declined (by 9.3%) for the first time since FY 2008-09 when the market was under the influence of the Lehman Brothers global financial crisis. It is said that the high interest rates and the topped-out fuel costs had a huge impact on the consumer psychology.

 The birth of the new regime under the Prime Minister Modi in May 2014 changed the market situation as the consumers began to look to a better future. The sales volume started to yield year-over-year increase in the passenger vehicle market in May and in the overall automobile market in June. Sales volume of the commercial vehicles was below the previous year's level until August, but it regained momentum and generated increase in September.

 In February 2014, the former administration reduced the excise tax until the end of June in an attempt to stimulate the sluggish demand for automobiles. In June, the new administration announced extension of the temporary excise tax cut for vehicles until the end of December 2014.

Production, sales and exports in India

FY2009-10 FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 Apr.-Sep.
2013
Apr.-Sep.
2014
Production Passenger Vehicles 2,351,240 2,982,772 3,123,528 3,231,058 3,072,651 1,533,131 1,584,201
Commercial Vehicles 566,608 760,735 911,574 832,649 698,864 363,745 338,909
Total 2,917,848 3,743,507 4,035,102 4,063,707 3,771,515 1,896,876 1,923,110
Domestic
Sales
Passenger Vehicles 1,949,776 2,501,542 2,618,072 2,665,015 2,503,685 1,201,254 1,252,318
Commercial Vehicles 531,395 684,905 809,532 793,211 632,738 326,689 293,563
Total 2,481,171 3,186,447 3,427,604 3,458,226 3,136,423 1,527,943 1,545,881
Exports Passenger Vehicles 446,146 444,326 507,318 559,414 593,507 310,364 307,473
Commercial Vehicles 45,007 74,043 92,663 80,027 77,056 35,701 41,253
Total 491,153 518,369 599,981 639,441 670,563 346,065 348,726
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)
(Notes) 1.  FY 2013-14 refers to the period from April 2013 to March 2014.
2.  "Passenger vehicles" are "total passenger vehicles" including utility vehicles and vans.
3.  Statistics for and after FY 2012-13 do not include data of BMW, Audi, JLR, and Mercedes-Benz (in this and other tables).

 

Temporary excise duty rates on automobiles introduced in 2014

Length Less than 4m More than 4m
Engine Less than 1200cc petrol or 1500cc diesel engines Less than 1500cc petrol and
diesel engines
More than 1500cc petrol and
diesel engines
More than 1500cc petrol and diesel engines
and ground clearance
more than 170mm
(SUVs)
Basic rates 12% 24% 27% 30%
Temporary Rates 8% 20% 24% 24%

Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)
(Note) Excise duty is levied at the time of manufacture of vehicles based upon their size and engine. An automaker can set the price of its vehicles as low as the lowest applicable excise duty permits.

 

Modi's new administration intends to reform investment environment

 India's market has a high mid- to long-term growth potential. But foreign automakers are said to face a number of obstacles when attempting a foray into India. Other than the national disposition toward low-priced products, such obstacles include the high interest rate (8% policy rate as of October 2014), chronic power shortage, frequent labor disputes, complicated national and local regulations, and the lack of sufficient infrastructure.

 The new Modi government intends to relax regulations including tax reforms, and to improve investment environments for potential investors at home and overseas.

 

 



Vehicle sales by segment: Compact and mini vehicles shorter than 4 meters prevail

 India's market is highly cost sensitive. Among passenger vehicles, the compact and mini vehicle class vehicles with the overall length less than 4 meters account for more than 60% of total passenger vehicles (including utility vehicles and vans). This is a peculiar aspect of the Indian market.

 The excise duty for compact passenger cars used to be 24%. To promote the market penetration of compact cars, the Indian government slashed excise duties in 2006. The 24% excise duty was reduced to 16% for cars with the overall length less than 4 meters and driven by less than 1200cc petrol or less than 1500cc diesel engine. It was reduced further to 12% in 2008. Many carmakers are launching vehicles that meet the new tax standard and this is accelerating the smaller car introductions in the passenger car market in India.

 The utility vehicle (UV) market grew from 300,000 units a few years ago to over 500,000 units in FY 2013-14. The growth is mainly due to the growing popularity of compact SUVs with an overall length less than 4.4 meters (290,000 units out of the 526,000 units of UVs sold in FY 2013-14 are SUVs shorter than 4.4 meters). Among them, vehicles such as Ford EcoSport and Mahindra Quanto are shorter than 4 meters and are driven by less than 1200cc petrol or less than 1500cc diesel engine. Both models will be subject to the low 12% excise duty (the temporary duty rate of 8% as of today).

Lower excise duty for cars shorter than 4 meters

Lower excise duty  Indian government is supporting the market penetration of small vehicles as they consume less fuel, help lessen the road congestions and are easy to park. Hence, the government has introduced preferential excise duties on compact vehicles.
 In its Budget 2006, the excise duty was reduced to 16% for vehicles with overall length less than 4 meters and powered by less than 1200cc petrol or less than 1500cc diesel. The rate was further lowered to 12% in December 2008.
 The 12% excise duty is also levied on UVs that are shorter than 4 meters and powered by less than 1200cc petrol or less than 1500cc diesel engine (the temporary duty rate of 8% as of today).

 

Sedans and hatchbacks meeting the new tax standard

Tata Motors Indigo CS  The first model to comply with the new excise duty standard is the Tata Indigo CS (CS stands for Compact Sedan).The Indigo eCS currently being sold is 3988mm long and powered by 1200cc petrol or 1400cc diesel engine.
Maruti Suzuki Swift DZIRE  The first Swift DZIRE sedan released by Maruti Suzuki in 2008 is 4160mm long and powered by 1298cc petrol engine. The second-generation DZIRE launched in 2012 was shortened to 3995mm and is powered by 1197cc petrol or 1248cc diesel engine.
Toyota Etios sedan/
Liva hatchback
 The Etios released for sale at the end of 2010 is 4265mm long and powered by a 1500cc petrol or 1400cc diesel engine. The petrol-fueled Etios has an ex-showroom price starting from INR 538,654. The Liva hatchback, a sibling of the Etios and released for sale in June 2011 is 3775mm long and powered by 1200cc petrol or 1400cc diesel engine, small enough to fit in the lower duty category. The petrol-fueled model has an ex-showroom price starting from INR 440,070.
Honda Brio hatchback/
Amaze sedan
 The Brio hatchback launched in September 2011 and the Amaze sedan launched in April 2013 are shorter than 4 meters. The Brio is powered by 1200cc petrol engine. The Amaze is powered by 1200cc petrol or 1500cc diesel engine.

(Note) Other than those mentioned above, the Datsun GO by Nissan, the Chevrolet Beat and the Sail Hatchback by General Motors, the Figo by Ford and Elite i20/Xcent by Hyundai all have an overall length less than 4 meters and are powered by less than 1200cc petrol or less than 1500cc diesel engine.

Small UVs meeting the new tax structure
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Quanto  The Mahindra Quanto launched in September 2012 is 3985mm long and powered by 1500cc diesel engine.
Ford EcoSport  The EcoSport launched in June 2013 is 3999mm long and powered by 1000cc EcoBoost petrol, 1500cc petrol or 1500cc diesel engine (the model fitted with a 1500cc diesel engine is not eligible for lower excise duty privilege).

Source: Carmakers' online catalogs

 

Sales volume in India by segment

FY2009-10 FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 Apr.-Sep.
2013
Apr.-Sep.
2014
Micro 0 70,432 74,527 53,848 21,129 10,202 6,365
Mini 1,191,650 690,812 642,009 570,023 568,234 272,732 255,768
Compact 833,721 855,480 795,580 788,189 461,092 520,381
Super Compact 276,071 141,867 187,026 226,502 233,443 21,880 19,645
Midsize 174,077 204,743 200,176 155,089 78,563 77,408
Executive 46,346 50,085 41,102 23,537 18,272 9,717 10,151
Premium 11,455 11,046 10,441 4,387 2,542 1,571 1,035
Luxury 1,265 626 601 2 1 0 2
Coupe/roadster 0 179 186 0 0 0 0
Total Passenger cars 1,526,787 1,972,845 2,016,115 1,874,055 1,786,899 855,757 890,755
Utility Vehicles 272,733 315,123 367,012 553,662 525,942 243,663 273,323
Vans 150,256 213,574 234,945 237,298 190,844 101,834 88,240
Total Passenger Vehicles 1,949,766 2,501,542 2,618,072 2,665,015 2,503,685 1,201,254 1,252,318
Total Commercial Vehicles 531,395 684,905 809,532 793,211 632,738 326,689 293,563
Grand Total 2,481,161 3,186,447 3,427,604 3,458,226 3,136,423 1,527,943 1,545,881
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)
(Notes) 1.  Statistics for and after FY2012-13 do not include data of BMW, Audi, JLR and Mercedes-Benz.
2.  The sharp sales decline of the Super Compact segment from April-September 2013 and April-September 2014 is caused by Maruti Suzuki's launch of the shorter version of the Swift DZIRE with an overall length less than 4 meters. It was moved from the Super Compact to the Compact segment.
3.  SIAM definitions of segments and sales volume by group are found in the latter half of the report.

 

 



Launches of various midsize sedans by OEM

 The sales volume by segment above suggests that the midsize passenger vehicles are steady at about 150,000 to 200,000 units a year. The Honda City was received well and its sale increased significantly.

 Maruti Suzuki launched the CIAZ. This carmaker has a vast number of owners who are ready for upgrades. It is said that Maruti Suzuki needs higher-end cars in its lineup in order to maintain high market shares. The company reportedly has plans to launch four midsize models including the CIAZ within two years (sale of the Executive-segment sedan Kizashi has ended).

 It has been reported that Toyota, too, is developing midsize sedans.

Launches of various midsize vehicles by OEM

Honda City  In January 2014, Honda launched an all-new Fit-based City sedan with an overall length of 4440mm, width of 1695mm and height of 1495mm. It is fitted with 1500cc petrol or 1500cc diesel engine and a CVT transmission. The new City sedan sold 35,047 units in April-September 2014, three times the number sold over the same period in 2013.
Maruti Suzuki CIAZ  In October 2014, Suzuki launched the midsize sedan CIAZ with a spacious cabin, rear-seat comfort and multimedia and other cutting-edge technologies. The CIAZ has an overall length of 4490mm, width of 1730mm and height of 1485mm. It is powered by a 1373cc petrol or 1284cc diesel engine.
 The CIAZ is produced by Maruti Suzuki. It is sold in local markets and also exported to Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Suzuki has plans to produce the CIAZ in China starting in 2014.
Toyota Mid-size sedan  Toyota's strategic models for India, the Etios sedan and the Liva hatchback, are not selling as well as expected. It has been reported that Toyota is developing a midsize sedan that will compete with Honda's City. The new sedan, based on the Etios platform and falling between the Etios and the Corolla Altis, reportedly will be launched toward the end of 2016.
VW Vento  The upgraded versions of the midsize sedan VW Vento and the Skoda Rapid were released for sale in September 2014. The two models sold over 5,000 units each in April-September 2014, highest number in the midsize segment next to Honda's City and Hyundai's Verna. The Vento was also exported (approximately 30,000 units) during the same period.
Skoda Rapid

Source: Press releases from each company and statistics from SIAM

 

 



Market shares by group: Share loss of Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai predicted by LMCA

 The industry volume of total passenger vehicles (passenger cars, UVs, vans) for the past few years is approximately 2.5 million units. Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai maintain their shares at 40 to 45% and 15 to 16% respectively.

 However, all carmakers have plans to increase their passenger car portfolio. LMC Automotive predicts that the two market leaders, Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai, may slightly lose their shares within a few years because of the increasingly fierce competition.

 Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have captured over 70% of the commercial vehicle market in India. Sales volume of all four-wheeled vehicles including commercial vehicles in April-September 2014 is led by Maruti Suzuki at 468,908 units (market share of 36.1%). Tata Motors is the second market leader at 212,279 units (13.7%) but closely followed by Hyundai at 203,033 units (13.1%) and Mahindra & Mahindra at 186,179 units (12.0%).

Total passenger vehicle market share by group

FY2009-10 FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 Apr.-Sep.
2013
Apr.-Sep.
2014
Maruti Suzuki
Hyundai Motor
44.7%
16.2%
45.3%
14.4%
38.4%
14.8%
39.4%
14.4%
42.1%
15.2%
40.5%
15.0%
44.6%
16.2%
Mahindra & Mahindra
Tata Motors
7.7%
14.7%
7.2%
14.0%
9.4%
14.2%
11.7%
11.8%
10.2%
7.9%
10.4%
9.0%
8.8%
5.8%
Honda Cars
Toyota Kirloskar
3.2%
3.3%
2.4%
3.4%
2.1%
6.1%
2.8%
6.2%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
5.5%
7.0%
5.4%
Renault-Nissan 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7%
Ford India
General Motors
VW Group
1.9%
4.5%
1.1%
3.9%
4.3%
3.1%
3.5%
4.2%
4.4%
2.9%
3.3%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
2.9%
3.5%
3.6%
3.3%
3.3%
2.3%
2.2%
Others 2.8% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)
(Notes) 1.  Statistics for and after FY2012-13 do not include data of BMW, Audi, JLR and Mercedes-Benz.
2.  Sales volume by group is found below.

 

<Reference> SIAM definitions of segments and sales volume by group

SIAM definitions of passenger vehicle segments and typical models

Length Engine displacement Typical models
Micro Less than 3200mm Less than 800cc Nano (Tata)
Mini Less than 3600mm Less than 1000cc Eon (Hyundai), Wagon R (Maruti)
Compact Less than 4000mm Less than 1400cc Swift/DZIRE (Maruti), i10/Elite i20 (Hyundai)
Super Compact Less than 4250mm Less than 1600cc Etios (Toyota), DZIRE TOUR (Maruti)
Mid-size Less than 4500mm Less than 1600cc City (Honda), Verna (Hyundai), CIAZ (Maruti)
Executive Less than 4700mm Less than 2000cc Corolla Altis (Toyota), Elantra (Hyundai)
Premium Less than 5000mm Less than 3000cc 5 Series (BMW), EーClass (Mercedes)
Luxury 5000mm or more Less than 5000cc 7 Series (BMW), S-Class (Mercedes), A8 (Audi)

Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

 

Total passenger vehicle sales volume by group

FY2009-10 FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 Apr.-Sep.
2013
Apr.-Sep.
2014
Maruti Suzuki
Hyundai Motor
870,783
314,981
1,132,739
359,366
1,006,316
388,779
1,051,046
383,611
1,053,689
380,253
486,908
179,992
558,330
203,033
Mahindra & Mahindra
Tata Motors
150,627
285,846
180,170
349,133
245,700
370,834
310,706
314,464
254,344
198,812
125,264
107,777
110,687
73,137
Honda Cars
Toyota Kirloskar
61,803
63,843
59,463
84,088
54,427
160,203
73,483
165,504
134,339
128,811
59,617
65,577
88,200
67,091
Nissan
Renault
Renault-Nissan
306
0
306
13,027
0
13,027
33,268
3,964
37,232
37,006
52,463
89,469
38,220
57,368
95,588
12,328
30,939
43,267
25,739
21,073
46,812
Ford India
General Motors
36,887
87,093
98,537
106,986
92,665
110,048
77,225
88,150
84,469
80,890
41,665
43,491
41,141
28,554
Skoda
VW
Audi
VW Group
17,502
3,092
1,532
22,126
22,971
51,610
1,892
76,473
34,089
78,281
3,381
115,751
29,067
65,472

94,539
19,959
52,528

72,487
10,256
29,101

39,357
7,288
20,274

27,562
Others 55,481 41,560 36,117 16,818 20,003 8,339 7,771
Total 1,949,776 2,501,542 2,618,072 2,665,015 2,503,685 1,201,254 1,252,318
Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)
(Notes) 1.  Statistics for and after FY2012-13 do not include data of BMW, Audi, JLR and Mercedes-Benz.
2.  "Others" under FY 2009-10 includes 5,332 units of the Mahindra Renault.

 

 



Sales Forecast by LMC Automotive: Light Vehicle Sales in India will be 4.57 million units in 2017

(LMC Automotive, Quarter 3, 2014)

Sales Forecast by Group Based on the Global Automotive Sales Forecast (Quarter 3, 2014), LMC Automotive forecasts that light vehicle sales in India will be 4.57 million units in 2017, up by 56.1% from 2013. Sales in India hover at around 3.0 million units between 2011 and 2014. However, sales growth potential in India remains high due to low vehicle density, a young and growing population, the fast expanding middle class, and rising affordability.

 As for sales forecast by group, Maruti Suzuki Group's sales will be 1.47 million units in 2017, maintaining No.1 market share. But Suzuki's growth rate will be smaller than that of whole India market. LMC Automotive comments that both Suzuki and Hyundai, the current leaders in the passenger car market, are expected to lose their market shares over the next few years because of the growing competition. Tata and Mahindra are expected to sell more vehicles in the long term on the back of an expanded Passenger Vehicle lineup as well as the additional volume coming from their Light Commercial Vehicles.

 Among Japanese automakers, Honda's sales in 2017 will be 295,000 units (2.7 times of the 2013 level), Toyota's sales will be 274,000 (1.9 times), and Renault-Nissan's sales will be 231,000 (2.4 times), respectively.


Light Vehicle Sales Forecast by Group in India (LMC Automotive)

SALES GROUP GLOBAL MAKE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total 2,933,317 3,270,398 2,926,596 2,995,133 3,367,845 3,931,857 4,569,470
Suzuki Group Suzuki 965,658 1,044,312 1,043,210 1,106,617 1,109,406 1,277,003 1,465,657
Maruti-Suzuki 24,603 19,745 20,854 1,645 0 0 0
Suzuki Group 990,261 1,064,057 1,064,064 1,108,262 1,109,406 1,277,003 1,465,657
Hyundai Group Hyundai 373,709 391,273 380,002 424,654 441,515 443,488 459,846
Hyundai Group 373,709 391,273 380,002 424,654 441,515 443,488 459,846
Mahindra Group Mahindra 356,606 459,245 380,456 356,087 369,998 433,824 536,298
Ssangyong 0 398 2,832 1,677 10,769 16,652 21,068
Mahindra Group 356,606 459,643 383,288 357,764 380,767 450,476 557,366
Tata Group Tata 589,870 635,205 391,187 352,551 493,710 571,441 577,111
Land Rover 447 1,837 2,107 2,042 1,867 1,926 3,125
Jaguar 173 548 806 754 764 849 1,001
Tata Group 590,490 637,590 394,100 355,347 496,341 574,216 581,237
Honda Group Honda 47,947 73,081 107,661 181,721 213,261 249,033 294,782
Honda Group 47,947 73,081 107,661 181,721 213,261 249,033 294,782
Toyota Group Toyota 136,142 172,368 145,132 136,632 169,854 209,222 274,403
Toyota Group 136,142 172,368 145,132 136,632 169,854 209,222 274,403
Renault-Nissan
Group
Nissan 22,918 45,199 32,248 43,241 53,723 67,750 89,011
Dacia 0 24,047 51,411 42,196 53,784 57,052 66,552
Datsun 0 0 0 17,272 25,047 40,485 51,356
Renault 1,137 11,015 12,739 5,608 13,935 20,138 23,951
Samsung 264 446 218 332 0 0 0
Renault-Nissan Group 24,319 80,707 96,616 108,649 146,489 185,425 230,870
Ford Group Ford 96,354 87,960 81,657 90,965 106,446 124,257 154,038
Ford Group 96,354 87,960 81,657 90,965 106,446 124,257 154,038
Volkswagen Group Volkswagen 78,395 66,258 58,100 42,102 56,771 79,814 90,553
Skoda 30,740 34,925 21,717 16,423 23,562 26,466 30,695
Audi 5,751 9,003 10,003 10,888 12,557 13,929 16,923
Volkswagen Group 114,886 110,186 89,820 69,413 92,890 120,209 138,171
General Motors
Group
Chevrolet 90,123 71,385 60,596 41,102 56,502 49,853 69,488
Isuzu 20,933 20,706 12,135 14,434 11,957 13,842 16,761
Wuling 0 0 15,679 12,596 14,721 19,392 26,327
General Motors Group 111,056 92,091 88,410 68,132 83,180 83,087 112,576
Other Indian
Manufacturers
Ashok Leyland 2,490 28,741 32,045 24,688 31,204 34,365 46,517
Force 28,745 30,983 23,784 22,723 30,254 37,486 47,396
Premier 4,581 3,835 3,316 3,511 4,360 5,987 7,842
Bajaj 0 0 0 2,220 8,076 17,620 32,508
Eicher 1,611 801 614 606 1,206 1,502 2,020
Hindustan 3,613 2,676 3,656 602 0 0 0
Other Indian Manufacturers 41,040 67,036 63,415 54,350 75,100 96,960 136,283
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles
Fiat 16,734 11,107 8,798 12,893 20,365 71,913 98,557
Jeep 0 0 0 0 2,177 6,151 13,037
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 16,734 11,107 8,798 12,893 22,542 78,064 111,594
Daimler Group Mercedes-Benz 7,049 6,840 7,653 9,400 10,186 12,808 16,383
Daimler Group 7,049 6,840 7,653 9,400 10,186 12,808 16,383
BMW Group BMW 9,745 9,377 7,327 7,289 8,288 10,529 13,672
MINI 0 0 95 56 86 93 121
BMW Group 9,745 9,377 7,422 7,345 8,374 10,622 13,793
Other Piaggio 14,088 4,183 5,492 6,464 6,713 7,721 9,445
Other 14,088 4,183 5,492 6,464 6,713 7,721 9,445
Mitsubishi M. Mitsubishi 2,582 2,094 1,947 1,336 1,661 2,024 2,626
Mitsubishi Motors 2,582 2,094 1,947 1,336 1,661 2,024 2,626
Isuzu Motors Isuzu 0 0 206 1,126 2,291 6,118 8,890
Isuzu Motors 0 0 206 1,126 2,291 6,118 8,890
Geely Group Volvo 309 805 913 680 829 1,124 1,510
Geely Group 309 805 913 680 829 1,124 1,510
Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Sales Forecast (Quarter 3, 2014)"
(Notes) 1.  Data indicates figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2.  All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3.  For more information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

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