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Indian market 5-year forecast: New car sales to exceed 6 mn units in 2030

Passenger car market analysis: segment structure, sales volume by OEM

2025/11/20

Summary
GlobalData Sales Forecast: India’s light vehicle sales to exceed 6 million units in 2030
2025 and medium-term trends in the passenger car market
Reduction in GST for the automotive sector
Passenger cars segment performance in 2024
Passenger car market segment structure
OEM analysis of passenger car market
Luxury vehicle OEM sales in India
Import duties

Summary

　According to GlobalData’s sales forecast, India's light vehicle sales are projected to surpass 6 million units in 2030. The Government of India introduced a new GST structure, effective September 2025. This has contributed to increased sales of sub-4-meter segment compact cars.

　As for India, a large and relatively young population offers a positive factor for the sales outlook, but the widening income disparity raises concerns over the pace of middle-class expansion. The economy’s structural problems, particularly the fragile financial sector, pose a threat to India’s automotive market, as well.

According to MarkLines, 2024 was a landmark year for the Indian auto industry as the passenger vehicle segment recorded its highest-ever domestic sales in a year. The trend of a surge in sales after the decline in sales in the pre-COVID and COVID years continues. India continues to be the world's third-largest car market.

The shift of Indian consumers towards bigger cars, better liquidity in the market, rising incomes, a completely open-up economy after Covid, favourable government policies, and new model launches with better technology are a few of the factors that boost the sales of passenger cars in India.

Vehicle sales recorded a year-on-year growth of 5% year over year, but slower than the growth seen in recent years. The high taxes on vehicles, elections, inflation, uneven monsoon, availability of vehicles due to supply chain issues, etc., the pent-up demand after Covid is also dwindling. In 2025, the Government is reviving the falling sales of vehicles with new initiatives and tax reduction.

Passenger vehicle sales in India (Source: MarkLines, Indian sales volume)

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