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Chinese market : Chinese OEMs take 70% share as foreign OEMs struggle
GlobalData Production Forecast: Evolution of Chinese Market, Shift to Sustainable Growth
2025/11/14
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Summary
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GlobalData Production Forecast: China's light vehicle production will remain at 31 million units in 2028
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First-half 2025 sales volume up by 11.4% to 15.65 million units; targeting 32.3 million units for the full year
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Passenger car market: Chinese OEMs have nearly 70% share, Japanese OEMs about 10%
Summary
GlobalData PLC (GlobalData) forecasts that light vehicle production in China will remain at the 31 to 32 million-unit level through 2028. BYD (BYD Auto Co. Ltd.), the top-selling OEM, is expected to reach over 5 million units from 2026. After BYD, Chinese manufacturers such as Geely (Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd.) and Chery (Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.) are also developing multiple brands and are expected to see steady growth in Chinese domestic production and exports.
The Chinese automotive industry is transforming from being the manufacturing center of the global automotive industry into a technology and innovation nexus, where electrification, intelligent capabilities, and rapid iteration have become the core determinants of competitive advantage.
According to MarkLines, new vehicle sales volume in the Chinese market increased by 11.4% year-over-year (y/y) to 15.65 million units in the first half of 2025 (January-June). The "Plan for Stable Growth of the Automotive Industry (2025-2026)" published in September 2025 by eight Chinese government offices, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, sets a sales target around 32.3 million units in 2025, approx. 3% increase over the previous year.
Chinese OEMs accounted for about 70% of the passenger car market share in the first half of 2025. The sales decline of German and Japanese OEMs is severe, with market share shrinking.
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