Japanese OEMs revise FY 2015 sales and profit outlooks due to yen depreciation

Global sales volume expected to grow 3.3% year-over-year to 25.65 million units

2014/12/09

Summary

 

 日本乗用車メーカーのOperating profit率 Global sales plan revised downward by 500,000 units
  In the fiscal year to end in March 2015 (FY 2015: Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Suzuki uses "FY2014" to refer to the same term. In this report, MarkLines uses "FY 2015" to refer to the term, following the term choice by many OEMs), the ten Japanese OEMs are expected to achieve the record high consolidated sales volume for the third straight year with a total of 25.65 million units, up 3.3% from the previous year. It is, however, 500,000 units less than the original plan. Downturn after the consumption tax hike in Japan, has been prolonged more than each OEM predicted and the Thailand market is still declining. Against these backdrops, Suzuki and Mazda raised their outlooks for sales.

FY 2015 sales in Japan expected to drop 5.6% to 4.98 million units
  For the second half of FY 2015, the ten OEMs plan to reduce the consolidated sales volume by 8.4% year-over-year (y/y) to 2.56 million units, due to the pre-tax hike rush demand in the previous fiscal year. This should decrease the full-year sales by 5.6% y/y to 4.98 million units. According to LMC Automotive’s forecast in the third quarter of 2014, Japanese light vehicle sales in the 2014 calendar year  will slightly increase to 5.3 million units by 0.9% from the previous year. In the calendar year 2015, however, total vehicle sales are expected to decrease sharply to 4.67 million units, 11.9% down compared to the 2014 level.

Revenue plan revised upward to JPY 62.8 trillion
  The ten OEMs plan to increase their combined revenue by 4.8% y/y to JPY 62.8 trillion. Although they revised their outlooks for sales volume downward, they increased the revenue outlooks by a total of JPY 0.8 trillion based on the weaker yen. Specifically, six OEMs- Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI: the maker of Subaru automobiles), Isuzu and Hino, revised their revenue plans upward.

Operating profit
  The ten OEMs revised their combined profit plans upward as well. They plan to increase the consolidated operating profit by JPY 252 billion from their original plan to JPY 4.89 trillion, up 7.7% y/y. Their average assumed exchange rate for the second half of FY 2015 is JPY 105 to the U.S. dollar. If the rate of JPY 117 in late November continues, their profits will further increase.

Operating profit ratio
  In the seven passenger-car OEMs' announcements of revised full-year business outlooks, Toyota, Mitsubishi and FHI revised their operating profit ratios upward. Backed by the weaker yen and other factors, Toyota and FHI plan high operating profit ratios of 9.4% and 13.7% respectively. Mitsubishi revised its revenue outlook down, but maintained its initial profit plans supported by the weaker yen and cost reduction.


Related Reports: Japanese OEMs aim for third consecutive year of record sales in FY 2014 (May, 2014)


 

Japanese OEMs' FY2015 outlooks (Bold figures represent record highs)

Automobile sales volume
(in 1,000 units)
Consolidated revenue
(in 100 millions of JPY)
Operating profit
(in 100 millions of JPY)
FY 2015 original planFY 2015 revised plan
(Upon results announcement for the 1H-first half-period)
FY 2015 original planFY 2015 revised plan
(Upon 1H results
announcement)
FY 2015 original planFY 2015 revised plan
(Upon 1H results
announcement)
Toyota 9,100 9,050 Downward 257,000 265,000 Upward 23,000 25,000 Upward
Nissan 5,650 5,450 Downward 107,900 108,000 Upward 5,350 5,350 Unchanged
Honda 4,830 4,620 Downward 127,500 127,500 Unchanged 7,600 7,700 Upward
Suzuki 2,756 2,812 Upward 30,000 30,000 Unchanged 1,880 1,880 Unchanged
Mazda 1,200 1,205 Upward 29,000 29,300 Upward 2,100 2,100 Unchanged
Mitsubishi 1,182 1,089 Downward 23,000 21,800 Downward 1,350 1,350 Unchanged
Daihatsu 1,095 1,075 Downward 18,300 18,000 Downward 1,400 1,100 Downward
FHI 916 909 Downward 27,200 27,800 Upward 3,400 3,820 Upward
Isuzu 517 511 Downward 18,400 18,500 Upward 1,650 1,650 Unchanged
Hino 177 172 Downward 16,000 16,600 Upward 900 1,000 Upward
Total 26,151 25,646 - 620,000 627,900 - 46,330 48,850 -

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.