Japanese OEMs revise FY 2015 sales and profit outlooks due to yen depreciation
Global sales volume expected to grow 3.3% year-over-year to 25.65 million units
2014/12/09
- Summary
- Consolidated sales volume revised downward to 25.65 million units
- Revenue plan revised upward to JPY 62.8 trillion backed by depreciated yen
- Operating profit plan upwardly revised to JPY 4.89 trillion
- Weaker yen increases operating profit plans
- Record high investments in facilities and R&D still planned for FY 2015
- Summary of FY 2015 first half results and full-year plans by Japanese OEMs
- Production Forecast by LMC Automotive: Japanese production to decline to 8.2 million units in 2017
- Statistics
- Statistics2
Summary
Global sales plan revised downward by 500,000 units
In the fiscal year to end in March 2015 (FY 2015: Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Suzuki uses "FY2014" to refer to the same term. In this report, MarkLines uses "FY 2015" to refer to the term, following the term choice by many OEMs), the ten Japanese OEMs are expected to achieve the record high consolidated sales volume for the third straight year with a total of 25.65 million units, up 3.3% from the previous year. It is, however, 500,000 units less than the original plan. Downturn after the consumption tax hike in Japan, has been prolonged more than each OEM predicted and the Thailand market is still declining. Against these backdrops, Suzuki and Mazda raised their outlooks for sales.
FY 2015 sales in Japan expected to drop 5.6% to 4.98 million units
For the second half of FY 2015, the ten OEMs plan to reduce the consolidated sales volume by 8.4% year-over-year (y/y) to 2.56 million units, due to the pre-tax hike rush demand in the previous fiscal year. This should decrease the full-year sales by 5.6% y/y to 4.98 million units. According to LMC Automotive’s forecast in the third quarter of 2014, Japanese light vehicle sales in the 2014 calendar year will slightly increase to 5.3 million units by 0.9% from the previous year. In the calendar year 2015, however, total vehicle sales are expected to decrease sharply to 4.67 million units, 11.9% down compared to the 2014 level.
Revenue plan revised upward to JPY 62.8 trillion
The ten OEMs plan to increase their combined revenue by 4.8% y/y to JPY 62.8 trillion. Although they revised their outlooks for sales volume downward, they increased the revenue outlooks by a total of JPY 0.8 trillion based on the weaker yen. Specifically, six OEMs- Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI: the maker of Subaru automobiles), Isuzu and Hino, revised their revenue plans upward.
Operating profit
The ten OEMs revised their combined profit plans upward as well. They plan to increase the consolidated operating profit by JPY 252 billion from their original plan to JPY 4.89 trillion, up 7.7% y/y. Their average assumed exchange rate for the second half of FY 2015 is JPY 105 to the U.S. dollar. If the rate of JPY 117 in late November continues, their profits will further increase.
Operating profit ratio
In the seven passenger-car OEMs' announcements of revised full-year business outlooks, Toyota, Mitsubishi and FHI revised their operating profit ratios upward. Backed by the weaker yen and other factors, Toyota and FHI plan high operating profit ratios of 9.4% and 13.7% respectively. Mitsubishi revised its revenue outlook down, but maintained its initial profit plans supported by the weaker yen and cost reduction.
Related Reports: Japanese OEMs aim for third consecutive year of record sales in FY 2014 (May, 2014)
Japanese OEMs' FY2015 outlooks (Bold figures represent record highs)
| Automobile sales volume (in 1,000 units) | Consolidated revenue (in 100 millions of JPY) | Operating profit (in 100 millions of JPY) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2015 original plan | FY 2015 revised plan (Upon results announcement for the 1H-first half-period) | FY 2015 original plan | FY 2015 revised plan (Upon 1H results announcement) | FY 2015 original plan | FY 2015 revised plan (Upon 1H results announcement) | ||||
| Toyota | 9,100 | 9,050 | Downward | 257,000 | 265,000 | Upward | 23,000 | 25,000 | Upward |
| Nissan | 5,650 | 5,450 | Downward | 107,900 | 108,000 | Upward | 5,350 | 5,350 | Unchanged |
| Honda | 4,830 | 4,620 | Downward | 127,500 | 127,500 | Unchanged | 7,600 | 7,700 | Upward |
| Suzuki | 2,756 | 2,812 | Upward | 30,000 | 30,000 | Unchanged | 1,880 | 1,880 | Unchanged |
| Mazda | 1,200 | 1,205 | Upward | 29,000 | 29,300 | Upward | 2,100 | 2,100 | Unchanged |
| Mitsubishi | 1,182 | 1,089 | Downward | 23,000 | 21,800 | Downward | 1,350 | 1,350 | Unchanged |
| Daihatsu | 1,095 | 1,075 | Downward | 18,300 | 18,000 | Downward | 1,400 | 1,100 | Downward |
| FHI | 916 | 909 | Downward | 27,200 | 27,800 | Upward | 3,400 | 3,820 | Upward |
| Isuzu | 517 | 511 | Downward | 18,400 | 18,500 | Upward | 1,650 | 1,650 | Unchanged |
| Hino | 177 | 172 | Downward | 16,000 | 16,600 | Upward | 900 | 1,000 | Upward |
| Total | 26,151 | 25,646 | - | 620,000 | 627,900 | - | 46,330 | 48,850 | - |
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.
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