Global Top 10 Countries Sales Forecast (Q1 2021)

Global sales to reach 87 million units in 2021; India's forecast revised upward significantly

2021/04/22

Summary

*An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter.

・According to LMC Automotive's forecast (as of the first quarter of 2021), global sales of light vehicles in 2021 are expected to increase by 12.2% year-on-year to 87 million units. Although there are concerns about vehicle supply issues due to coronavirus related lockdowns, and semiconductor shortages, we assume that most of these issues will improve in the coming months, and we expect a significant recovery from 2020, which saw the largest decline on record.

・The market is expected to continue to grow in 2022 (+5.5% y/y) and 2023 (+4.4% y/y), and reach a record high of 96 million units in 2023, despite risk factors such as the progress and effectiveness of vaccinations.

・As for the forecast for 2021 of the top 10 countries, Japan, the U.S., and China are all expected to remain almost unchanged from the previous forecast (as of the fourth quarter of 2020), while India, the fourth-ranked country, has been revised upward significantly in anticipation of strong current sales and the effects of government promotion replacement measures.