LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (November 2022)
2022/12/08
- Summary
- Commentary
Summary
- The Western Europe selling rate rose from 10.3 mn units/year in October to 12.2 mn units/year in November – the second strongest performance of the year behind August. In raw monthly registration terms, November 2022 increased 19% YoY, with 920k cars registered. Year‐to‐date (YTD), however, the market remains down (‐6%) owing to vehicle supply constraints hampering market activity.
- The German PV selling rate rose from 2.4 mn units/year in October to 3.2 mn units/year in November. In the UK, the PV selling rate rose to 2.2 mn units/year, up from 2.0 mn in October and 1.3 mn in September. For France, the selling rate also improved to 1.8 mn units/year in November from 1.5 mn units/year in October. The Italian selling rate picked up to 1.5 mn units/year from 1.4 mn units/year in the previous two months. Meanwhile, Spain’s latest PV selling rate picked up from the previous month, with October and November at 860k and 970k units/year respectively.
- In 2022, supply constraints have led to long lead times for new vehicles, and in the process ensured that transaction prices are well above historical norms. For 2023, we assume these bottlenecks will ease as the year progresses. However, the demand side is also fraught with headwinds including high inflation, falling consumer confidence, stretched household budgets and tighter monetary policy. We assume 2023 will comfortably outpace 2022 though we are a little more cautious than last month as we balance the ongoing risks to both supply and demand.
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