FY2011 Plans of Japanese OEMs

Large-scale increase of production to start this autumn, while dollar-yen rate subject to second rev

2011/09/21

Summary


 Domestic production of Japanese OEMs stayed at about 40% of that of the previous year in March and April due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. Fortunately, the production recovered in July to around 90% to the level of the previous year, which was boosted by the government eco-car subsidy. In short, their production capacities have come back to normal. The OEMs will increase production by 10 to 20% over the previous year starting this autumn.

 OEMs' FY2011 business forecasts were unveiled one after another starting in the middle of June after the delays due to the earthquake. In the earnings announcements of the first quarter FY2011 (announced until early August), Toyota and Honda revised their business forecasts upward. Overall FY2011 business forecasts of ten Japanese OEMs are as follows: on a year-over-year basis, the sales volume will be up by 4.5% to 21.477 million units, revenues will be up by 0.7% to 46.8 trillion yen, operating profit will be down by 23.4% to 1.47 trillion yen, at an assumed exchange rate of 80 yen to the US dollar.

 Unfortunately, the yen continued to rise after August and stayed at the upper 76 yen zone to the dollar. If the yen remains this high, each Japanese OEM will have to revise the assumed rate, which would erode their business results (Toyota revised the FY2011 initial assumption of exchange rate from 82 yen to 80 yen to the dollar in the first quarter earnings announcement).

 

Overviews of Japanese OEMs' FY2011 plans and 1Q business results

Four-wheeler sales
volume (1,000 units)
Consolidated revenues
(100 million yen)
Operating profit
(100 million yen)
Yen to dollar
(yen)
FY2010
business
results
FY2011FY2010
business
results
FY2011FY2010
business
results
FY2011Full-
year
plan
First
quarter
results
Full-
year
plan
First
quarter
results
Full-
year
plan
First
quarter
results
Full-
year
plan
First
quarter
results
Toyota 7,308 7,600 1,221 189,937 190,000 34,410 4,682 4,500 (1,080) 80 82
Honda 3,512 3,435 547 89,368 87,000 17,146 5,697 2,700 225 80 82
Nissan 3,888 4,272 934 87,731 94,000 20,820 5,375 4,600 1,504 80 81.7
Suzuki 2,642 2,819 594 26,082 26,100 6,073 1,069 1,100 256 80 82
Mazda 1,100 1,127 186 23,257 21,900 4,081 238 200 (231) 83 82
Mitsubishi 1,045 1,173 252 18,285 19,500 4,319 403 500 122 80 82
Daihatsu 893 892 192 15,594 15,700 3,297 1,034 850 172 80 82
Fuji Heavy 657 632 118 15,806 14,800 3,004 841 300 107 81 82
Isuzu 408 419 77 14,155 14,800 2,844 882 800 144 80 82
Hino 108 128 22 12,427 13,500 2,326 289 350 46 80
Ten OEMs' total 20,560 21,477 3,929 464,621 468,100 92,697 19,187 14,700 1,047 80 82
Source: OEMs' financial brief notes and earnings announcement documents
Notes 1. The blanks signify a lack of data due to no announcement from each OEM.
2. The total of the yen-dollar exchange rates shows the average of the ten OEMs.
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