FY2011 outlooks of Japanese OEMs and influence of Thailand flooding

Toyota and Honda drop their full-year forecasts

2011/11/29

Summary

 Domestic production of Japanese OEMs stayed at about 40% that of the previous year in March and April due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. Then, the production gradually recovered almost to normal levels in summer. Each OEM planned to start boosting production in autumn. Due to the influence of flooding in Thailand, all local plants of Japanese OEMs that operate in Thailand, halted operations starting in October (some of them resumed operations in mid November). In addition, outside Thailand, the auto-parts supply network is disrupted, which is why Toyota and Honda have been reducing production at some of their plants.

 Due to the influence of the flooding in Thailand, Toyota and Honda dropped their FY2011 business outlooks in the earnings announcements of the first half of FY2011. Compared to the forecasts in the earnings announcements of the first quarter FY2011, eight Japanese OEMs except Toyota and Honda revised their unit-sales outlooks upward by 5.6% year-on-year to 11.401 million units. They revised their revenue outlooks downward to 21.8 trillion yen (up 2.4% year-on-year), but their operating profit forecasts upward to 924 billion JPY (down 8.8% year-on-year)at an assumed exchange rate of 77.9 yen (up by about 2.5 yen) to the US dollar (the assumed exchange rate for the second half is 76.8 yen).

 First half-year results of FY2011 of ten Japanese OEMs including Toyota and Honda are negatively affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake: the unit sales were 9.01 million (down 11.9% year-on-year), revenues were 20.4 trillion JPY (down 13.2% year-on-year), and operating profit was 492 billion JPY (down 60.6% year-on-year).

 

Overviews of Japanese OEMs' FY2011 outlooks and the first half business results

Four-wheeler
sales volume
(1,000 units)
Consolidated revenues
(100 million yen)
Operating profit
(100 million yen)
Yen to dollar
(yen)
FY2010
business
results
FY2011FY2010
business
results
FY2011FY2010
business
results
FY2011FY2011
Full
year
outlook
First
half
results
Full
year
outlook
First
half
results
Full
year
outlook
First
half
results
Full
year
outlook
First
half
results
Toyota 7,308 - 3,026 189,937 - 80,159 4,682 - (326) - 80
Nissan 3,888 4,411 2,012 87,731 94,500 43,674 5,375 5,100 3,097 79.9 79.8
Honda 3,512 - 1,319 89,368 - 36,005 5,697 - 750 - 79
Suzuki 2,642 2,719 1,205 26,082 26,100 12,262 1,069 1,100 647 77 80
Mazda 1,100 1,060 470 23,257 21,600 9,592 238 0 (216) 78 80
Mitsubishi 1,098 1,094 530 18,285 18,200 9,075 403 500 342 78 80
Daihatsu 893 922 404 15,594 15,700 7,113 1,034 950 420 76 80
FHI 657 645 266 15,806 14,800 6,550 841 300 188 78 80
Isuzu 408 422 182 14,155 14,300 6,581 882 940 438 78 81
Hino 108 128 56 12,427 13,200 5,757 289 350 149 78 80
Ten OEMs' Total 20,613 9,010 464,621 203,898 19,187 4,920 77.9 80.0
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents
(Note) 1. In the earnings announcements of the first half of FY2011, Toyota and Honda changed their full-year FY2011 forecasts to "undecided," saying that they are unable to reasonably estimate the influence of the slowdown of production due to the flooding in Thailand.
2. The total of the yen-dollar exchange rates shows the average of the ten OEMs.


Flooding in Thailand: Honda has difficulty resuming operations in FY2011 as its Thai plant is under water; Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, and Mitsubishi resumed operations in mid November

 In Thailand, heavy rain caused floods beginning in the summer of 2011, which began swamping industrial parks in various parts of Thailand in October, and then local plants of multiple OEMs and suppliers halted operations. In particular, Honda's Thai plant went under water and has faced trouble resuming operations in FY2011. In addition, due to the disruption of the auto-parts supply in Thailand, Honda has halved production outside Thailand, Japan and North America, suffering more serious damage.

 Every Japanese OEM whose Thai plant has not been directly damaged halted operations starting in mid October since they have had trouble procuring auto-parts caused by the swamping of some suppliers' plants and traffic being cut off. Toyota and other OEMs also cut production outside Thailand starting in mid October.

 In November, the auto-parts supply chain gradually began to recover. Nissan, Mazda, and Mitsubishi partially resume production at their Thai plants on November 14 and Toyota on November 21 (as of November 11).

Influence of the flooding in Thailand to Japanese OEMs (as of November 14)

OEMSummary of influence on productionDate of
information
Toyota Toyota suffered auto-parts supply disruptions and halted operations of its three plants in Thailand starting on October 10, but resumes production on November 21 (currently adjusting the level of production). In Japan, the company halted overtime work starting on October 24 and began adjustment of operations of each production line (model) on October 31, but starts regular operations between November 21 and 25 (undecided on 28 and later). November 11
The company is currently reducing production at other overseas production facilities. It started adjustment of operations in North America, South Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam on October 31 and in Malaysia and Pakistan on November 7 (at least until November 18). It will resume the original operation plan in North America and Pakistan on November 14.
By November 12, Toyota's production of 150,000 vehicles was affected worldwide. The company comes close to finding alternative parts, gradually recovering production, aiming to begin regular production at the beginning of 2012.
Nissan Nissan suffered auto-parts supply disruptions and halted operations of its Thai plant on October 17. The company partially resumes production on November 14. It estimates that production of 40,000 units will be reduced. The company expects that it will be able to avoid the influence on the US, Europe, and China. However, there is a risk in Japan that production may decline by 20,000 in the future. November 14
Honda Honda's vehicle plant in Thailand submerged up to 2 meters and is still under water as of November 14. The company halted operations on October 4 and reduced production by 21,000 by October 31. If the water can be drained by mid December, it will further take several months to resume operations. It is unlikely that the company will resume operations in FY2011. November 14
Due to the disruption of auto-parts supply network from Thailand, the company halved production in Japan starting on November 7, and halted operations in Malaysia on October 25 and in the Philippines on November 3. The company reduces production in Indonesia and Taiwan and is expected to begin adjustment in Vietnam, India, and Pakistan in November. In North America, it started halving production on October 31 and will continue it at least until late November, expecting to continue production cut for the next several weeks. In Brazil, it has been reducing production by 30% since November 7. November 9
Suzuki The company confirmed that it has enough inventory of electronic parts made in Thailand, which it has trouble procuring, to last until the end of November. Domestic production in Japan may be affected in December or later. The construction of a plant in Thailand that is scheduled to start operations in March 2012 is not affected since it is not located in a flooded area. November 7
Mazda Mazda suffered auto-parts supply disruptions and halted production of commercial vehicles and passenger cars on October 11 and 19, respectively. As for passenger cars, the company resumes production on day shift only on November 14 as it supplies parts from Japan and China. It plans to start a 2-shift operation beginning in a week that starts on November 21. It is expected to take time to resume production of commercial vehicles since the company procures their parts only in Thailand. November 4
Mitsubishi Mitsubishi suffered auto-parts supply disruptions and halted production in night shift at its plant in Thailand starting on the night shift of October 13. Since it has become easier to procure parts, the company resumed production on November 14. It reduced production by 23,000 by November 14. November 14
Daihatsu Daihatsu suffered auto-parts supply disruptions and stopped working overtime at Ikeda and Kyoto plants starting on October 24 and 25, respectively, both of which produce vehicles for Toyota on consignment. The company adjusts the level of operations on each production line starting on October 31 (at least until November 18). November 4
FHI FHI has not received any influence on its production as of now (November 1). As for parts that are supplied from Thailand, the company has found alternative sources of parts. November 1
Isuzu Isuzu halted production in Thailand starting on October 11. It is uncertain when the production will resume. The company expects that there will be no influence on production in Japan. November 8
Hino Hino halted production at its plant in Thailand due to auto-parts supply disruptions starting on October 14. The company began suspending production of vehicles in Thailand on October 10, which it supplies to Toyota on consignment, and started reducing production in Japan on October 24 (at least until November 18 in each country). November 7
Mitsubishi
Fuso
On October 19, production was halted at a plant in Thailand, which Mitsubishi Fuso consigns production. It is uncertain when the plant will resume production. November 4
UD
Trucks
No influence on production. November 4

Source: The table compiled from OEMs' press releases and various media reports.



Consolidated sales volume: Except Toyota and Honda, eight Japanese OEMs revise their FY2011 forecasts upward to 11.401 million (up 5.6% year-on-year)

 (Except Toyota and Honda, which dropped their FY2011 business forecasts) Consolidated FY2011 sales forecast of eight Japanese OEMs is 11.401 million units, up by about 20,000 units from the forecast in the earnings announcements of the first quarter FY2011 (up by 5.6% from the FY2010 results). Among OEMs, Nissan, Mazda, Daihatsu, FHI, and Isuzu revised upward their sales forecasts for the FY2011. In particular, Nissan revised its forecast for record global sales of 4.6 million units upward to 4.75 million. On the other hand, Suzuki, which is experiencing slumping sales in India, and Mitsubishi, which has revised down its sales forecast in Asia and other regions, both revised their FY2011 sales forecasts downward.

 These eight OEMs estimate to sell 6.276 million units in the second half of FY2011 (up 13.1% year-on-year). The companies aim to recover sales volume substantially from 5.125 million units (down 2.2% year-on-year) in the first half of FY2011, which slumped due to the Great East Japan Earthquake.

 In addition, in the first half of FY2011, consolidated sales volume of vehicles by ten Japanese OEMs (Toyota and Honda included) is down by 11.9% year-on-year to 9.01 million units due to reduction in production caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Total sales in Japan of the ten OEMs are significantly reduced by 22.6% to 1.843 million units. Among OEMs, Honda reduced consolidated sales volume substantially (down by 26.6%), followed by FHI (down 19.6%) and Toyota (down 18.5%). Nissan and Mitsubishi boosted their sales volume by 8.2% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, as their overseas sales made up for sales in Japan.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated unit sales of four-wheelers

(1,000 units)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 Outlook First half Second half
FY2010 FY2011 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
announce-
ment
As of
the 1H
earnings
announce-
ment
Sales volume
of four wheelers
Toyota 7,567 7,237 7,308 7,240 7,600 - 3,715 3,026 3,593 -
Nissan 3,138 3,159 3,888 4,272 4,411 1,859 2,012 2,029 2,399
Honda 3,517 3,392 3,512 3,300 3,435 - 1,797 1,319 1,715 -
Suzuki 2,306 2,350 2,642 2,819 2,719 1,255 1,205 1,387 1,514
Mazda 1,116 963 1,100 1,045 1,060 550 470 550 590
Mitsubishi 1,011 805 1,098 1,173 1,094 521 530 577 564
Daihatsu 945 869 893 892 922 471 404 422 518
FHI 555 563 657 633 632 645 331 266 326 379
Isuzu 401 288 408 419 422 204 182 204 240
Hino 99 83 108 128 52 56 56 72
Ten OEMs' Total 19,611 18,757 20,613 20,901 21,395 10,232 9,010 10,381
Eight OEMs' Total 9,571 9,080 10,794 11,381 11,380 11,401 5,243 5,125 5,551 6,276
Domestic
sales volume
Toyota 1,945 2,163 1,913 1,930 1,980 - 1,085 797 828 -
Nissan 576 599 573 583 611 321 277 252 334
Honda 556 646 582 565 565 - 322 222 260 -
Suzuki 665 622 588 575 586 307 261 281 325
Mazda 220 219 206 207 209 125 109 81 100
Mitsubishi 164 170 199 189 192 107 83 92 109
Daihatsu 587 568 527 516 539 289 230 237 309
FHI 179 171 158 164 169 89 73 69 96
Isuzu 58 42 47 49 51 25 21 22 30
Hino 35 27 29 35 14 15 16 20
Ten OEMs' Total 4,363 4,632 4,266 4,312 2,381 1,843 1,885
Eight OEMs' Total 2,484 2,418 2,327 2,317 2,392 1,277 1,069 1,050 1,323
Overseas
sales volume
Toyota 5,622 5,074 5,395 5,310 5,620 - 2,630 2,229 2,765 -
Nissan 2,562 2,560 3,315 3,689 3,800 1,538 1,735 1,777 2,065
Honda 2,961 2,746 2,930 2,735 2,870 - 1,475 1,097 1,455 -
Suzuki 1,641 1,729 2,053 2,244 2,133 948 944 1,105 1,189
Mazda 896 744 901 838 851 425 361 476 490
Mitsubishi 847 635 899 984 902 414 447 485 455
Daihatsu 358 301 366 376 383 182 174 185 209
FHI 377 392 499 468 476 243 193 256 283
Isuzu 343 246 361 370 371 179 161 182 210
Hino 64 56 79 93 38 41 40 52
Ten OEMs' Total 15,248 14,126 16,346 17,083 7,852 7,167 8,494
Eight OEMs' Total 7,088 6,663 8,466 9,062 9,009 3,967 4,056 4,499 4,953
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents.
(Note) 1. Daimler's subsidiary Mitsubishi Fuso and Volvo's subsidiary UD Trucks did not disclose the business results.
2. Toyota and Honda follow the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Mitsubishi represents Mitsubishi Motors. The planned consolidated sales volumes reflect the announcements made by the respective OEMs. The arrow mark "→" represents that the initial full-year forecasts and those in the first quarter of FY2011 earnings announcement are the same. The mark "-" represents that each OEM did not announce the forecast in the first half of FY2011 earnings announcement. The blanks represent that each OEM did not announce the data (the same applicable to the tables below).
3. Ten OEMs' total does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota and eight OEM's total does not include Toyota and Honda (the same applicable to the tables below).
4. Some consolidated sales volume data include components for production.
5. The FY2011 plan of Nissan is reference values calculated by adding to the FY2010 records an increase or decrease in the announced global sales volume plans. The global sales volumes are based on a retail basis, which include components for production and assembled vehicles at their equity method foreign affiliates.
6. Suzuki's sales volume shows the number of Suzuki brand vehicles excluding those supplied under OEM agreement. Nevertheless, its domestic sales volume includes the Chevrolet brand vehicles (production discontinued in August 2010). The FY2011 overseas sales include some estimated values by Suzuki.
7. The FY2010 data of Mazda include 16K units arising from the 15-month business term of its overseas subsidiaries which changed the account settlement period.
8. Mitsubishi Motors has revised the method to count sold vehicles since FY 2011. The newly counted (wholesale) sales volume includes those supplied under OEM agreement. The new method is applicable starting in FY2010 in the above table. According to the old counting method, sales volume in the FY2010 is 1,045K units (166K in Japan and 879K overseas) and is 495K units (90K in Japan and 405K overseas) in the first quarter of FY2010.
9. Daihatsu and Hino show the sales volumes of their own brand vehicles (Toyota's sales volume includes those of Daihatsu and Hino).
10. Isuzu does not reflect the influence of the floods in Thailand in its FY2011 plan.

 



Revenues: Eight Japanese OEMs revise their FY2011 revenue outlooks downward to 21.8 trillion yen (up 2.4% year-on-year)

 Eight Japanese OEMs (Toyota and Honda excluded) plan to increase their FY2011 consolidated revenues by 2.4% year-on-year to 21.8 trillion yen. The companies revised their unit sales outlooks upward from their planned figures in the earnings announcements of the first quarter FY2011, but revised their revenue outlooks down by about 200 billion yen. Nissan is the only OEM that revised up the revenue outlook. Suzuki revised down its unit sales outlook, but has not changed its revenue outlook. Mitsubishi revised downward its revenue outlook from 1.95 trillion yen to 1.82 trillion yen. In addition, Mazda, Isuzu, and Hino revised down their outlooks.

 The eight OEMs plan to post revenues of 11.8 trillion yen (up 9.8% year-on-year) in the second half of FY2011. On the other hand, they lost their revenues by 5.2% to 10.1 trillion yen in the first half of FY2011.

 In addition, ten Japanese OEMs (Toyota and Honda included) reduced their consolidated revenues by 13.2% to 20.4 trillion yen in the first half of FY2011. Honda (down 22.0%), FHI (down 18.5%), and Toyota (down 17.2%)significantly lost their revenues. Nissan and Mitsubishi increased their sales volume and revenues. In particular, Mitsubishi enjoyed strong sales of SUVs, whose unit-price is high, and increased revenues by 4.9%, which surpassed the growth rate of unit sales (1.7%).

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated revenues

(Yen in 100 million)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
First half Second half
FY2010 FY2011 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
an-
nounce-
ment
As of
the 1H
earnings
an-
nounce-
ment
Revenues Toyota 205,296 189,509 189,937 186,000 190,000 - 96,784 80,159 93,153 -
Nissan 84,370 75,173 87,731 94,000 94,500 43,191 43,674 44,540 50,826
Honda 100,112 85,792 89,368 83,000 87,000 - 46,134 36,005 43,234 -
Suzuki 30,049 24,691 26,082 26,100 13,188 12,262 12,894 13,838
Mazda 25,359 21,639 23,257 21,900 21,600 11,577 9,592 11,680 12,008
Mitsubishi 19,736 14,456 18,285 19,500 18,200 8,647 9,075 9,638 9,125
Daihatsu 16,314 15,747 15,594 15,700 8,131 7,113 7,463 8,587
FHI 14,458 14,287 15,806 14,800 8,040 6,550 7,766 8,250
Isuzu 14,247 10,809 14,155 14,800 14,300 7,249 6,581 6,906 7,719
Hino 10,695 10,235 12,427 13,500 13,200 6,057 5,757 6,370 7,443
Ten OEMs' Total 493,626 436,356 464,621 460,100 468,100 234,810 203,898 229,811
Eight OEMs' Total 215,228 187,037 213,337 220,000 220,300 218,400 106,080 100,604 107,257 117,796
Domestic
revenues
Toyota 54,218 57,291 53,250
Nissan 20,383 18,032 18,694 9,727 8,778
Honda 14,465 15,773 15,038 8,084 6,271
Suzuki 9,656 9,526 9,374 9,400 4,930 4,487 4,444 4,913
Mazda 6,203 5,750 5,415 5,800 5,700 3,041 2,702 2,374 2,998
Mitsubishi 3,984 3,685 3,633 1,911 1,634
Daihatsu 11,913 11,296 10,567 10,500 10,800 5,649 4,792 4,918 6,009
FHI 5,075 5,208 4,673 4,500 4,700 2,520 2,245 2,153 2,455
Isuzu 5,338 4,330 4,986 5,100 5,200 2,551 2,342 2,435 2,858
Hino 6,944 6,754 8,455
Ten OEMs' Total 119,322 119,595 115,063
Overseas
revenues
Toyota 151,078 132,218 136,687
Nissan 63,987 57,141 69,037 33,464 34,896
Honda 85,647 70,019 74,330 38,050 29,734
Suzuki 20,393 15,165 16,708 16,700 8,258 7,775 8,450 8,925
Mazda 19,156 15,889 17,842 16,100 15,900 8,536 6,890 9,306 9,010
Mitsubishi 15,752 10,771 14,652 6,736 7,441
Daihatsu 4,401 4,452 5,027 5,200 4,900 2,483 2,321 2,544 2,579
FHI 9,383 9,079 11,132 10,300 10,100 5,520 4,305 5,612 5,795
Isuzu 8,909 6,479 9,169 9,700 9,100 4,698 4,240 4,471 4,860
Hino 3,751 3,481 3,972
Ten OEMs' Total 374,304 316,761 349,557

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents.
(Note) Domestic/overseas earnings represent earnings by location of external customers.

 



Profits: Eight Japanese OEMs revise their FY2011 operating profit outlooks upward to 924 billion yen (down 8.8% year-on-year) with the assumed exchange rate of 76.8 yen to the US dollar in the second half

 Eight Japanese OEMs that announced their FY2011 plan revised their overall profit outlooks upward to 924 billion yen (down 8.8% year-on-year) in operating profit, to 898 billion yen (down 14.1%) in current profit, and to 513 billion yen (up 10.5%) in net profit. Among OEMs, Nissan, Daihatsu, Isuzu, and FHI (which does not change its operating profit outlook) revised up their outlooks, while Suzuki, Mitsubishi, and Hino do not change their outlooks. However, Mazda revised its profit outlook, with an estimate to break even in operating profit, posting a current loss of 2 billion yen and a net loss of 19 billion yen, of which the company had originally planned to register a net profit for the first time in four years.

 The ten OEMs (Toyota and Honda included) lost profits in the first half of FY2011 except Mitsubishi due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. The ten OEMs reduced their operating profits, current profits, and net profits by 60.6%, 60.6%, and 57.8% year-on-year, respectively. Toyota posted an operating loss of 32.6 billion yen and a pre-tax loss of 1.4 billion yen, but recovered from an operating loss and a pre-tax loss of 108 billion yen and 80.5 billion yen, respectively, in the first quarter of FY2011.

 Most Japanese OEMs assumed the exchange rate of 77.9 yen to the US dollar for FY2011 at the first half earnings announcement. They assumed an exchange rate of 76.8 yen to the US dollar only in the second half of FY2011. Among OEMs, the assumed exchange rate varies to a certain degree; Nissan assumes the exchange rate of 80.0 yen in the second half, which is relatively low, while Suzuki assumes the exchange rate of 75.

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated operating profits/current profits/net profits

(Yen in 100 million)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
First half Second half
FY2010 FY2011 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
an-
nounce-
ment
As of
the 1H
earnings
an-
nounce-
ment
Operating
profit
Toyota (4,610) 1,475 4,682 3,000 4,500 - 3,231 (326) 1,451 -
Nissan (1,379) 3,116 5,375 4,600 5,100 3,349 3,097 2,026 2,003
Honda 1,896 3,637 5,697 2,000 2,700 - 3,979 750 1,718 -
Suzuki 769 794 1,069 1,100 688 647 381 453
Mazda (284) 95 238 200 0 122 (216) 116 216
Mitsubishi 39 139 403 500 69 342 334 158
Daihatsu 382 407 1,034 850 950 527 420 507 530
FHI (58) 274 841 300 573 188 268 112
Isuzu 217 110 882 800 940 468 438 414 502
Hino (194) 11 289 350 164 149 125 204
Ten OEMs' Total (3,410) 9,640 19,187 12,500 14,700 12,479 4,920 6,708
Eight OEMs' Total (508) 4,946 10,131 8,700 8,700 9,240 5,960 5,065 4,171 4,175
Current
profit
Toyota (5,604) 2,914 5,632 3,200 5,000 - 3,920 (14) 1,712 -
Nissan (1,727) 2,077 5,378 4,410 4,800 3,151 2,954 2,227 1,846
Honda 1,617 3,361 6,305 2,150 2,850 - 4,223 1,058 2,082 -
Suzuki 797 938 1,225 1,250 749 676 476 574
Mazda (187) 46 369 150 (20) 208 (306) 161 286
Mitsubishi (149) 130 389 400 70 233 319 167
Daihatsu 395 438 1,122 920 1,000 551 466 571 534
FHI (46) 224 822 250 290 588 216 234 74
Isuzu 152 114 913 800 950 477 451 436 499
Hino (304) (19) 251 310 135 124 116 186
Ten OEMs' Total (5,147) 9,804 21,033 12,610 15,110 13,386 5,268 7,647
Eight OEMs' Total (1,069) 3,948 10,469 8,490 8,530 8,980 5,929 4,814 4,540 4,166
Net profit Toyota (4,369) 2,094 4,081 2,800 3,900 - 2,891 815 1,190 -
Nissan (2,337) 424 3,192 2,700 2,900 2,084 1,834 1,108 1,066
Honda 1,370 2,684 5,340 1,950 2,300 - 4,084 922 1,256 -
Suzuki 274 289 452 500 304 320 148 180
Mazda (715) (65) (600) 10 (190) 55 (399) (655) 209
Mitsubishi (549) 48 156 200 (49) 106 205 94
Daihatsu 221 212 526 370 500 283 213 243 287
FHI (699) (165) 503 350 360 446 328 57 32
Isuzu (269) 84 516 650 740 292 337 224 403
Hino (618) (30) (100) 120 58 6 (158) 114
Ten OEMs' Total (7,294) 5,393 13,640 9,160 10,610 10,107 4,263 3,533
Eight OEMs' Total (4,692) 797 4,645 4,900 4,910 5,130 3,473 2,745 1,172 2,385
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents.
(Note) 1. The Current Profit data of Toyota and Honda shows respective pre-tax current profits as they adopt the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
2. As a natural disaster loss, Nissan posted 21.13 billion yen for an extraordinary loss in the first quarter FY2011.
3. As a natural disaster loss, Mazda posted a loss of 3.653 billion yen for an extraordinary loss in the first quarter FY2011.
4. As a natural disaster loss, Mitsubishi posted 737 million yen for an extraordinary loss in the first half of FY2011.
5. As a natural disaster loss, Daihatsu posted 2.025 billion yen in the first quarter FY2011 business results.
6. As a natural disaster loss, Fuji Heavy posted 7.257 billion yen for an extraordinary loss in the first half FY2011. On the other hand, it posted 26.1 billion yen earned from selling its headquarters building and the site as an extraordinary profit in the first quarter of FY2011.
7. Isuzu posted 712 million yen in the first half of FY2011 as a loss from the Great East Japan Earthquake.
8. As a natural disaster loss, Hino posted 6.1 billion yen for an extraordinary loss in the first quarter of FY2011.

Assumed exchange rate of yen to dollar and euro by ten Japanese OEMs

(Yen)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 Outlook First half
FY2010 FY2011
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
announce-
ment
As of the 1H
earnings
announcement
Full
year
Second
half
US Dollar Toyota 101 93 86 82 80 - 89 80
Nissan 100.7 92.9 85.7 80.0 79.9 80.0 88.9 79.8
Honda 101 93 86 80 - 89 79
Suzuki 101 93 86 80 77 75 89 80
Mazda 101 93 86 83 78 76 89 80
Mitsubishi 101 92 85 80 78 76 89 80
Daihatsu 101 92 85 80 76 88 80
FHI 102 93 86 81 78 77 90 80
Isuzu 101 91 85 80 78 89 81
Hino 101 93 86 80 78 77 89 80
Average 101.1 92.6 85.7 80.6 80.4 77.9 76.8 89.0 80.0
Euro Toyota 144 131 113 115 116 - 114 114
Nissan 144.1 131.2 113.1 115.0 111.9 110.0 113.8 113.7
Honda 142 130 114 110 112 - 115 113
Suzuki 144 131 113 110 109 105 114 114
Mazda 144 131 113 113 110 105 114 114
Mitsubishi 144 130 113 115 110 103 114 116
Daihatsu 152 131 110 110 108 109 114
FHI 147 132 114 115 108 116 114
Isuzu
Hino
Average 145.1 130.9 112.9 113.7 113.3 109.5 105.8 113.7 114.1

(Note) If OEMs announced a number of assumed exchange rates, their respective exchange rates used for sales are included in the table above.

 



Positive and negative effects on operating profits: Japanese OEMs plan to make up for losses from exchange fluctuation by increase in sales and reduction in expenses in FY2011

 (Except Toyota and Honda) Eight Japanese OEMs revised their FY2011 operating profit forecasts upward from the forecasts it the earnings announcements of the first half of FY2011 by 54 billion yen to 924 billion yen (down by 89.1 billion yen year-on-year). The OEMs originally estimated that exchange fluctuation would reduce profit by 200.7 billion yen, which increased to 312.2 billion due to further appreciation of the yen compared to the exchange rate at the first quarter earnings announcement. However, they make up for the reduction in profit due to the exchange fluctuation and have revised the profit forecast upward. The OEMs revise the profit forecast due to sales fluctuation from 214.1 billion yen to 293 billon yen, planning to reduce their loss due to miscellaneous expenditures/R&D costs from 210.9 billion yen to 137.5 billion yen.

 The ten OEMs posted an operating profit of 492 billion yen in the first half of FY2011, down by 755.8 billion yen year-on-year. Dampers for the operating profits are 471 billion yen from a sales fluctuation and 331.2 billion yen from exchange fluctuation, both of which mostly account for their losses.

Factors to cause increase/decrease in operating profits of Japanese OEMs

(Yen in 100 million)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
First half
FY2010 FY2011
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
announce-
ment
As of
the 1H
earnings
announce-
ment
Toyota Operating profit (4,610) 1,475 4,682 3,000 4,500 - 3,231 (326)
Increase/decrease in operating profits (27,314) 6,085 3,207 (1,682) (182) - 4,600 (3,557)
Operation/sales (14,800) (3,700) 4,900 (500) 1,300 5,700 (2,200)
Cost improvements 0 5,200 1,800 1,000 1,200 900 500
Financial business 2,700 (700) (500)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (7,600) (3,200) (2,900) (1,000) (1,600) (1,200) (1,300)
Miscellaneous expenditures (4,791) 4,700 (300) (482) (582) (500) (400)
(thereof:) R&D cost 548 1,787 (250) 500 (50)
(thereof:) Facility cost (904) 378 1,200 300 300
(thereof:) Labor cost 1,088 627 (400) 0 (700)
(thereof:) Others (5,523) 1,908 (850) (1,300) 50
Others (122) 385 (293) (300) (157)
Nissan
(Note 2)
Operating profit (1,379) 3,116 5,375 4,600 5,100 3,349 3,097
Increase/decrease in operating profits (9,287) 4,495 2,259 (775) (275) 2,400 (252)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (2,230) (1,625) (1,475) (1,350) (1,550) (552) (1,057)
Sales volume/mix (5,252) 269 4,331 1,900 2,350 2,993 291
Sales cost, etc. (1,342) 2,154 1,058 450 534 276
Sales finance 295 300 310
Reserve for loss of leasing (918) 1,417 (135)
R&D cost 645 (185) (620) (179) 78
Sales cost 271 (1,915) (1,120) (1,260) (932) (388)
Others 455 1,364 150 (35) (115) 671 238
Honda Operating profit 1,896 3,637 5,697 2,000 2,700 - 3,979 750
Increase/decrease in operating profits (7,634) 1,741 2,060 (3,697) (2,997) - 3,072 (3,228)
Difference from sales fluctuation/ mix (2,477) (2,465) 3,222 (1,192) (872) 2,690 (1,849)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (2,695) (1,675) (1,376) (910) (710) (489) (522)
Effects of cost reduction etc. (1,825) 674 1,533 (710) (590) 1,262 (1,171)
R&D cost 247 998 (242) (675) (675) (265) 17
Sales administration cost (883) 4,209 (620) (210) (150) (125) 297
Impact from the earthquake (457)
Suzuki Operating profit 769 794 1,069 1,100 1,100 688 647
Increase/decrease in operating profits (725) 25 275 31 31 370 (41)
Fluctuation in sales/mix, etc. (1,422) (696) 253 (89) (89) 619 (386)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (707) (469) (283) (280) (410) (105) (114)
Cost reduction 201 172 355 280 260 101 71
Depreciation 204 (6) 34 180 180 (44) 149
R&D cost (63) 62 47 (60) (60) (61) (11)
Miscellaneous expenditures 1,062 962 (131) 150 (140) 250
Mazda Operating profit (284) 95 238 200 0 122 (216)
Increase/decrease in operating profits (1,905) 379 143 (38) (238) 343 (338)
Volume/vehicle type mix (865) (606) 357 (142) (124) 330 (384)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (1,020) (765) (437) (36) (391) (151) (67)
Improving product appeal (190)
Cost reduction 440 680 112 126 167 41 54
Raw material market conditions (440)
For sales costs 65 227 (56) (50) (27) (39) (30)
Others 105 843 167 64 137 162 89
Mitsubishi Operating profit 39 139 403 500 500 69 342
Increase/decrease in operating profits (1,047) 100 264 97 97 394 273
Volume/vehicle type mix (720) (856) 533 260 210 492 227
Impact from exchange fluctuation (761) (418) (342) (90) (180) (160) (19)
Cost reduction etc. 365 544 211 220 260 68 99
Impact from rising raw materials costs (317)
Others 335 578 (86) (263) (193) 8 (76)
For sales cost 174 252 (51) (30) (14) 42
US sales finance business (123)
Daihatsu Operating profit 381 407 1,034 850 950 527 420
Increase/decrease in operating profits (271) 26 627 (184) (84) 416 (107)
Sales/vehicle type mix 113 (258) 224 (40) 140 316 (233)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (80) (79) (17) (9) (75) 5 (16)
Cost reduction 105 123 150 80 75 79 48
Quality improvement cost (7)
Sales related costs (37) 79 50 (60) 92
Miscellaneous expenditures (408) 239 313 (294) (274) 76 2
FHI Operating profit (58) 274 841 300 300 573 188
Increase/decrease in operating profits (515) 332 567 (541) (541) 688 (385)
Sales mix disparity 3 87 831 (188) (27) 734 (322)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (435) (304) (356) (220) (456) (159) (210)
Cost reduction, etc. (32) 260 89 (119) (105) 63 (52)
Testing and research costs 92 57 (57) (51) (51) (31) (26)
Miscellaneous expenditures (143) 232 61 37 97 81 224
Isuzu Operating profit 217 110 882 800 940 468 438
Increase/decrease in operating profits (879) (107) 772 (82) 58 668 (30)
Change in sales/difference in product mix (800) (807) 705 120 120 615 (87)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (156) (23) (24) (22) (60) (8) (23)
Changes in economic conditions (273) 181 (98) (140) (110) (16) (37)
Streamlining 190 130 177 80 100 88 44
Compressing costs etc. 412 12 (120) 71 (11) 73
Effect of pervious FY (Earthquake disaster) (63)
Improvement of profitability etc. 344
Costs for facilities, R&D (108)
Changed accounting period of subsidiaries (76)
Hino Operating profit (194) 11 289 350 350 164 149
Increase/decrease in operating profits (653) 205 278 61 61 384 (15)
Impact on sales (330) 231 337 320 350 335 48
Changes in business climate (366) (70) (111) (260) (350) 25 (119)
Improvement of costs 163 199 187 200 200 88 71
Changes in costs (120) 190 (135) (199) (139) (64) (15)
Fluctuation in sales volume (345)
Ten OEMs' total Operating profit (3,410) 9,640 19,187 14,700 12,479 4,920
Increase/decrease in operating profits (49,306) 13,050 9,547 (4,487) 12,535 (7,558)
Changes in sales (26,333) (8,774) 15,132 2,289 14,173 (4,710)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (15,604) (8,479) (7,193) (4,308) (2,824) (3,312)
Cost reduction etc. (2,416) 10,226 5,347 1,527 3,046 (106)
Overhead, R&D costs, etc. (4,348) 12,615 (3,449) (3,301) (2,205) 53
Others (605) 7,462 (290) (694) 345 517
Eight OEMs' total Operating profit (509) 4,946 10,131 8,700 9,240 5,960 5,065
Increase/decrease in operating profits (15,282) 5,455 5,185 (1,431) (891) 5,663 (895)
Changes in sales (9,273) (2,981) 7,571 2,141 2,930 6,434 (846)
Impact from exchange fluctuation (5,389) (3,683) (2,934) (2,007) (3,122) (1,130) (1,506)
Cost reduction etc. (443) 4,864 2,216 998 889 987 669
Overhead, R&D costs, etc. 671 2,947 (2,011) (2,109) (1,375) (1,299) 233
Others (848) 4,308 343 (454) (213) 671 555
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents.
(Note) 1. The current profit data of Toyota and Honda represent pre-tax current profits as they adopt the US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
2. Purchase costs etc. of Nissan include costs for raw materials and energy.
3. Suzuki's fluctuation in sales/mix include influence from raw materials cost.
4. Decrease in Mitsubishi's Miscellaneous expenditures includes depreciation.
5. Fuji Heavy's cost reduction etc. includes influences from rising raw material costs.

 



OEMs plan to increase capital investment slightly from the original plan to about 1.03 trillion yen (eight OEMs); R&D costs to decline by 28 billion yen to 891.5 billion yen

 The FY2011 capital investment plans of eight OEMs (Toyota and Honda excluded) will be increased by 51.3% to 1.033 trillion yen, which is up slightly from the original plan. The eight OEMs project a depreciation of 812 billion yen in total, slightly down from the original plan. Plans for R&D costs will be reduced by 28 billion yen from the original plan to 891.5 billion yen (up 11.7% year-on-year).

Ten Japanese OEMs' consolidated capital investment, depreciation and R&D costs

(Yen in 100 million)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
First half Second half
FY2010 FY2011 FY2010 FY2011
Outlook
Initial
forecast
As of
the 1Q
earnings
announce-
ment
As of
the 1H
earnings
announce-
ment
Capital
invest-
ment
Toyota 13,025 5,790 6,423 7,200 - 2,396 2,638 4,027 -
Nissan 3,836 2,736 3,120 4,100 1,110 1,125 2,010 2,975
Honda 5,991 3,297 3,113 4,300 - 1,325 1,321 1,788 -
Suzuki 2,162 1,312 1,303 2,100 663 551 640 1,549
Mazda 818 298 447 800 183 313 264 487
Mitsubishi 719 471 525 990 168 214 357 776
Daihatsu 767 367 406 650 660 135 256 271 404
FHI 580 561 431 600 220 276 211 324
Isuzu 667 257 294 470 520 151 133 143 387
Hino 584 285 300 600 560 111 149 189 411
Ten OEMs' Total 27,798 14,722 15,656 20,560 20,560 6,216 6,571 9,440
Eight OEMs' Total 10,133 6,287 6,826 10,310 10,310 10,330 2,741 3,017 4,085 7,313
Deprecia-
tion
cost
Toyota 10,721 10,320 8,123 7,600 - 3,995 3,573 4,128 -
Nissan 4,212 3,633 3,721 3,600 1,794 1,750 1,927 1,850
Honda 4,082 3,666 3,252 3,150 - 1,640 1,412 1,612 -
Suzuki 1,412 1,418 1,384 1,200 625 476 759 724
Mazda 752 764 716 700 362 348 354 352
Mitsubishi 790 690 627 670 311 270 316 400
Daihatsu 837 729 637 570 590 317 294 320 296
FHI 651 571 498 550 240 254 258 296
Isuzu 396 395 364 390 370 183 180 181 190
Hino 475 452 457 470 440 222 209 235 231
Ten OEMs' Total 23,016 21,457 18,685 17,860 17,860 9,150 8,263 9,535
Eight OEMs' Total 9,525 8,652 8,404 8,150 8,150 8,120 4,054 3,781 4,350 4,339
R&D
cost
Toyota 9,040 7,253 7,303 7,600 - 3,705 3,773 3,598 -
Nissan 4,555 3,855 3,993 4,600 4,400 1,872 1,775 2,121 2,625
Honda 5,631 4,633 4,875 5,550 - 2,396 2,378 2,479 -
Suzuki 1,150 1,088 1,041 1,100 504 515 537 585
Mazda 960 852 910 950 920 457 473 453 447
Mitsubishi 640 444 494 640 630 236 270 258 360
Daihatsu 442 437 382 400 360 196 170 186 190
FHI 428 372 429 480 203 229 226 251
Isuzu 677 552 586 610 285 285 301 325
Hino 409 381 411 415 196 176 215 239
Ten OEMs' Total 23,081 19,049 19,631 21,330 21,330 9,658 9,698 9,973
Eight OEMs' Total 9,261 7,981 8,246 9,195 9,195 8,915 3,949 3,893 4,297 5,022

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcement documents.
(Note) Nissan's capital investment and depreciation have included the figures related to the finance lease since FY2008.

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