2018 China Market Forecast: 29.98 million units; automakers cautious

Forecast includes 3% increase in passenger cars, 1% in commercial vehicles, and 1 million NEVs

2018/03/23

Summary

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), estimated new vehicle demand for 2018*1 is 29.9 million vehicles (January 2018). Sales of passenger vehicles are expected to see a year-over-year (y/y) increase of 3%, while the sales of commercial vehicles are expected to see a y/y increase of 1%. SUV models are expected to continue to lead the market in sales and are expected to surpass those of sedans.

The tax incentive policy for compact vehicles with an engine displacement of 1.6 liters or less ended in December 2017. But, starting in January 2018, new policies were introduced exempting New Energy Vehicles (NEV) from vehicle purchase taxes for a three year period. Automakers are now developing production systems to accommodate the NEV credit scheme that will be implemented starting in 2019.

LMC Automotive of the U.K. is forecasting a slight y/y increase of 2.1% for 2018 Chinese light vehicle sales (passenger cars and compact vehicles with a GVW of 6 tons or less, including imports) to 29.2 million vehicles sold.

Although some automakers have announced their 2018 sales goals/production plans, many automakers are taking a more cautious stance, with some not announcing sales goals/production plans.

*1: Chinese market demand = wholesale - exports of finished vehicles + imports of finished vehicles.

 

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