Japanese OEM's plans for FY 2016: 28% profit loss due to yen appreciation

Expected USD rate for second half set at JPY 102, performance may rise depending on exchange rates

2016/12/13

Overview

Variables for the total operating income of the nine Japanese
OEMs
Variables for the total operating income of the nine Japanese OEMs

  From the end of October to November 8th, 2016, the nine Japanese OEMs announced financial results for the first half of fiscal year 2016 (ends in March 2017) as well as revisions to their outlooks for the full year. This report will focus on the companies' new outlooks for the full year of FY 2016.

Vehicle sales: plans for an all-time high revised slightly downward

  The nine Japanese OEMs expected to sell a total of 26.36 million vehicles (year-over-year (y/y) increase of 2.3%) in FY 2016. Although this would be an all-time high, the total sales figures have been revised downward by 70,000 units from initial plans (announced along with the previous fiscal year financial results) due to the loss of last-minute demand that had been expected from the now delayed consumption tax hike in Japan, as well as downward revisions to vehicle sales in North America. However, Honda's healthy sales in Asia and North America, in combination with Fuji Heavy Industries' healthy sales in North America raised sales forecasts.

Operating income: Appreciation of the yen leads to a JPY 2.2 trillion loss in profits, but an increase when the impact of exchange rate fluctuations is excluded

  The total operating income forecast for the nine OEMs was revised downward slightly, and is expected to be roughly JPY 75 billion less than the original projection of JPY 3.91 trillion (y/y decrease of 28.3%), due to the greater than anticipated appreciation of the yen. By automaker, Honda and Suzuki revised their forecasts upward, and Nissan maintained its initial projection. Toyota lowered its operating income projection in its Q1 financial results announcement, but through emergency cost reductions, reverted to the original forecast of JPY 1.7 trillion. As of the first half of the fiscal year, the automaker had accomplished 66% of its yearly operating income forecast, and is expected to revise its forecast upward.

  Because the exchange rate has fluctuated from USD 1=JPY 120 in FY 2015 to a forecast of USD 1=JPY 104 in FY 2016, making for a major appreciation of the yen, each company has planned for major y/y losses. The total amount of financial impact will be roughly JPY 2.2 trillion. In order to offset losses caused by the fluctuation in exchange rates, the nine OEMs revised their sales mixes and are making efforts to reduce costs among other measures. The estimated total operating income for 2016, excluding the effects of exchange rates, is now JPY 6.1 trillion, making for a y/y increase of 12.8%. Individually, excluding Mitsubishi Motors, which is suffering from the effects of its fuel consumption scandal, as well as Toyota, the other seven OEMs have increased sales profits when the effects of changes in exchange rates are excluded.

  Japanese OEMs estimate the USD exchange rate for the second half of FY 2016 to be at an average of USD 1=JPY 102. If the current exchange rate of USD 1=JPY 109 (as of November 18) continues, the nine automakers will generate an increased operating income of JPY 300 billion.

Japanese OEMs' FY 2016 outlooks

Unit sales (Thousand units) Operating profit (billion yen)
FY 2015
Results
FY 2016
Initial
Projection
FY 2016 Revised
Projection in Q2
FY 2015
Results
FY 2016
Initial
Projection
FY 2016 Plan
Revised Projection in Q2 Currency
impact
Estimated operating
profit excluding
currency impact
Toyota 8,681 8,900 8,850 Downward 2,854 1,700 1,700 Unchanged -1,080 2,780
Nissan 5,423 5,600 5,600 Unchanged 793 710 710 Unchanged -255 965
Honda 4,743 4,915 4,980 Upward 503 600 650 Upward -370 1,020
Suzuki 2,861 2,956 2,873 Downward 195 180 200 Upward -86 286
Mazda 1,534 1,550 1,550 Unchanged 227 170 150 Downward -123 273
Mitsubishi 1,048 962 933 Downward 138 25 -27.6 Downward -91 63.4
FHI 958 1,050 1,062 Upward 566 420 373 Downward -197 570
Isuzu 509 488 508 Upward 172 175 150 Downward -41 191
Hino 168 175 172 Downward 98.3 80 60 Downward -40 100
Total 25,757 26,421 26,356 Downward 5,448 3,980 3,905 Downward -2,243 6,148
Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements
(Note) 1. The Total row does not include Hino Motors' consolidated figures as they are already included in the figures for Toyota. Since becoming a fully owned company of Toyota in August 2016, Daihatsu has been delisted, and no longer announces its results.
2. The comparison column with the Revised Projection of each automaker is in comparison to the initial projection announced by each company at the time their FY 2015 results were announced. Toyota and Fuji Heavy Industries revised their full-year plans at the time of their Q1 financial results announcements.

 

Related Reports:

Japanese OEMs' Financial Outlook for FY 2016: Downturn in sales and profit due to foreign exchange (May 2016)