Most Japanese OEMs revise their FY 2013 outlooks upward

Toyota expects record high operating profit; Nissan makes downward revisions

2013/11/22

Summary


 At the beginning of the fiscal year ending March 2014 (FY 2013), Japanese OEMs planned record high sales volumes and profits, backed by depreciation of the yen, a strong U.S. market, and a steady Japanese market. For the first half of FY 2013 (April to September period), all of the ten OEMs increased their revenues, and every company, except for Nissan and Daihatsu, increased operating profit as well. The total sales volume of the ten OEMs increased by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 11.62 million units, with an increase in revenue by 14.5% to JPY 28.6 trillion and operating profit by 56.1% to JPY 2.3 trillion.

 Upon announcements of their financial results for the first half of FY 2013, each company revised the assumed exchange rate of the yen on a weaker yen basis. The automakers also revised their full-year forecasts to reflect changes in the Asian market such as Thailand and Indonesia. When we look at the ten OEMs as a whole, the consolidated sales volume decreased by 240,000 units from the original plan to 24.59 million units (up by 5.2% y/y), the revenue increased by JPY 1.5 trillion to JPY 59 trillion (up by 14.0% y/y), and the operating profit was revised upward by JPY 438 billion to JPY 4.4 trillion (up by 50.0% y/y).

 Revisions to their full-year plans varied in respective companies. Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI: owner of Subaru)) and Daihatsu made upward revisions to their sales volumes, revenues, and operating profits, all of which had originally been planned to attain record highs. In particular, FHI's operating profit is estimated at JPY 278 billion, approximately 2.3 times over the previous record high established in FY 2012.

 Toyota and Mazda made a large upward revision to their forecast for revenues and operating profits. From its original outlook, Toyota revised upward its revenue by JPY 1.5 trillion to JPY 25 trillion and operating profit by JPY 400 billion to JPY 2.2 trillion. The revised forecast is almost equivalent to its operating profit of JPY 2.27 trillion attained in FY 2007, before the economic crisis.

 Nissan, on the other hand, revised its sales volume, revenue, and operating profit all downward. These revisions resulted from decreased sales in emerging countries such as Asia, Russia, and Brazil and recall costs incurred in the U.S. and other countries.

Japanese OEMs' FY2013 outlooks (figures in shaded cells (bold) represent record high)

Automobile sales volume
(1,000 units)
Consolidated revenue
(100 million JPY)
Operating profit
(100 million JPY)
FY2013 plan
(original)
FY2013 outlook
(Upon results
announcement
for the 1H)
FY2013 plan
(original)
FY2013 outlook
(Upon results
announcement
for the 1H)
FY2013 plan
(original)
FY2013 outlook
(Upon results
announcement
for the 1H)
Toyota 9,100 9,100 Unchanged 235,000 250,000 Upward 18,000 22,000 Upward
Nissan 4,889 4,797 Downward 103,700 101,900 Downward 6,100 4,900 Downward
Honda 4,430 4,430 Unchanged 121,000 121,000 Unchanged 7,800 7,800 Unchanged
Suzuki 2,803 2,708 Downward 28,000 28,000 Unchanged 1,500 1,700 Upward
Mazda 1,120 1,130 Upward 24,800 26,500 Upward 1,200 1,600 Upward
Mitsubishi 1,169 1,111 Downward 22,700 21,300 Downward 1,000 1,000 Unchanged
Daihatsu 1,067 1,099 Upward 18,000 18,500 Upward 1,350 1,370 Upward
FHI 752 807 Upward 20,500 23,000 Upward 1,800 2,780 Upward
Isuzu 567 503 Downward 19,200 18,200 Downward 1,800 1,800 Unchanged
Hino 175 170 Downward 16,200 16,800 Upward 850 1,000 Upward
Total 24,830 24,586 574,900 589,900 39,200 43,580

Source: OEMs' financial flash reports and earnings announcements.
(Note) "Total" does not include the consolidated data of Daihatsu and Hino to avoid overlaps with Toyota.


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