Global Top 10 OEMs Production Forecast (Q4 2020)

Global production forecast to reach 87 million units in 2021, recovering to pre-COVID crisis levels

2021/01/26

Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter
* The forecast figures in this report do not factor in the impact of the semiconductor supply shortage, which is becoming more serious as of January 2021.

・According to LMC Automotive's forecast (as of the fourth quarter of 2020), the global light vehicle production volume in 2020 is expected to decrease by 16% y/y to 74.83 million units. About 14 million units of production will be lost from the previous year due to the COVID pandemic. Conversely, the forecast for 2021 is for a 17% increase to 87.82 million units, which is expected to almost recover to the pre-COVID crisis level of 2019 (88.92 million units). The recovery trend is expected to continue in 2022, with a 5% increase to 92.43 million units.

・In terms of production by major OEM groups, the Toyota Group is expected to surpass the VW Group in 2021 and beyond, maintaining its position as the world's top automaker since 2020. Conversely, the third-ranked Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, which suffered a particularly large decline in 2020, is expected to recover from 2021 onward, but the pace of recovery will not be significant and the gap with the fourth-ranked Hyundai Group is expected to narrow.