LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (October 2022)

2022/11/08

Summary

  • The Western Europe selling rate fell marginally from 10.5 mn units/year in September to 10.3 mn units/year in October. In raw monthly registration terms, October 2022 was up 14.7% YoY to just over 820k units, though this still leaves the year‐to‐date (YTD) result down 8.1%. It remains clear that supply constraints continue to hold back market results, even accounting for the deteriorating macroeconomic situation.
  • The German PV selling rate fell slightly to 2.4 mn units/year from 2.6 mn units/year in September. For the UK, the PV market recorded a selling rate of just under 2 mn units/year in October, up from 1.3 mn units/year in September. The French PV selling rate slipped back to 1.5 mn units/year, the second selling rate contraction in a row. For Italy, the PV selling rate remained flat at 1.4 mn units/year while still producing double‐digit YoY raw sales growth of nearly 15%. Spain’s PV selling rate fell to 862k units/year in October, from just over 1 mn units/year in September, breaking a three‐month run of MoM increases.
  • As we head towards the end of 2022, we continue to forecast another annual contraction for Western Europe PV sales. Our current forecast for 2022 would therefore see the market at around 70% of prepandemic levels on an annual basis. Even though the economic backdrop has deteriorated markedly as the year has progressed, the supply of vehicles is unable to keep up with demand. From this very weak base of 2022, we do expect some recovery in sales volumes for the region in 2023, as the supply side issues ease back through the year. A build‐up of sales backlogs will support this improvement despite key economies facing recession in early 2023. However, even with some improvement assumed next year, the market will remain far below what was considered normal operating volume pre‐pandemic.

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