The current situation of China’s NEV market

Targeting production of 2 million units in 2020 and more than 7 million units in 2025

2018/01/22

Summary

(資料:中国工業和信息化部(MIIT)の発表、自動車産業中長期発展計画及びMarkLinesデータをもとに作成)

In January 2017, the "control stipulation for entry into the new-energy-vehicle production industry" policy was proposed to prevent the sort of wide-spread new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidy fraud perpetrated by a number of automakers in 2016, and to promote the sound development of the NEV market. The new policy clarifies the NEV market entry conditions for NEV automakers and requires NEVs to meet certain requirements to pass the inspections conducted by inspection agencies.
China's mid- to long term development plan, released in April 2017, sets out goals to strengthen its automotive industry to a level where it produces 2 million NEV units by 2020, and aims for NEVs to account for 20% of China’s total production and sales volumes by 2025; with the fuel efficiency of new passenger cars improving to 5.0L/100km by 2020, and 4.0L/100km by 2025. In September, the "Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation” system was proposed, and annual fuel economy targets were set for all companies producing passenger cars. In addition, automakers that produce (or import) 30,000 or more internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered passenger cars are now required to manufacture a certain quantity of NEV vehicles.
Also, the government announced that models approved as NEVs on December 27 would be exempted from the vehicle purchase tax. The tax exemption period is January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020.

The announcement of a series of NEV-related policies is changing the face of the industry, not only for automakers that are members of major OEM groups such as BAIC, Chery, and Geely who have been granted new NEV production licenses, but also for major local emerging automakers such as Minth and Wangxiang, as well as the major parts suppliers of the automaker groups.

Incidentally, the number of NEV units (including commercial vehicles) sold in the January to November 2017 timeframe increased by 51.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 609,000 units (504,000 EVs, 105,000 PHVs), while the market share for NEVs stayed at 2.4% (NEV market share was 6% in the same period of 2016).



China's NEV trend in 2017

January to November 2017 NEV sales hit 609,000 units, market share at 2.4%

(資料:中国工業和信息化部(MIIT)の発表、自動車産業中長期発展計画及びMarkLinesデータをもとに作成)

2016 sales of NEV including commercial vehicles increased by 53.1% to 507,000 units (409,000 EVs, 98,000 PHVs). In the January to November 2017 timeframe, sales of NEVs increased by a steady 51.5% to 609,000 units (504,000 EVs, 105,000 PHVs). On December 21 China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that annual sales of NEVs for 2017 are expected to exceed 700,000 units.
However, despite the introduction of subsidies, NEVs accounted for only 2.4% of total sales in the January to November 2017 period (6% in the same period of the previous year).

In 2017, a series of joint venture partnerships were formed with major western automakers and medium-sized automakers in China that are focused on production of EV models exclusively for the China market. According to reports, Tesla has agreed with the local Shanghai government to build an independent plant in the Shanghai special economic zone and establish an R&D company for NEVs in Beijing. In November, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it will ease regulations on foreign equity interests for specially equipped vehicles and new energy projects in the Free Trade Areas by June 2018. In December, the State Council of China announced a tariff adjustment plan, effective January 1, 2018. As a result, the import tariffs on a number of imported components such as NEV inverter modules, NEV chargers, motor controllers, lithium-ion battery cells, and systems will be provisionally lowered.

 

NEV-related policies in 2017

In 2017, a number of important NEV-related policies were proposed sequentially. In January, the “control stipulation for entry into the new-energy-vehicle production industry” policy was introduced to strictly stipulate conditions and thereby prevent the sort of wide-spread NEV subsidy fraud perpetrated by a number of automakers in 2016. This is expected to promote the sound development of the NEV market. The mid- to long-term development plan announced in April lays out the government’s strategies for new energy vehicles and connected cars. According to a post on its website on April 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology forecasts that the industry will produce and sell 2 million NEVs in 2020, and 7 million in 2025. The plan also introduced policies for autonomous driving and automotive components.
In September 2017, China also announced the  "Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation” policy, which requires automakers that produce (or import) passenger cars to produce (or import) NEVs at specified ratios. A double credit method was also announced.
To promote the popularization of NEVs, the government announced a vehicle purchase tax exemption for them on December 27. The details of this tax package will be reported in the next China related report.

 2017 Policy name Government authority  Overview
Jan. Control stipulation for entry into the new-energy-vehicle production industry Ministry of Industry and  Information Technology ・Strictly stipulates conditions for entry into the NEV business and strengthens conditions for safety management. (effective from July 2017)
Apr. Mid- to long-term development plan Ministry of Industry and  Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology  ・Presented mid- to long-term targets for the Chinese automobile industry.
・Forecasts production volumes of approximately 30 million units by 2020 and 35 million units by 2025.
・Stipulates NEV sales of 2 million units by 2020, with NEVs proportionally comprising at least 20% of the market by 2025.
・Targets new car passenger car fuel efficiency at 5.0L/100km by 2020 and 4.0L/100km by 2025.
Sept. Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation Ministry of Industry and  Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs , General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine ・Promotes improved fuel efficiency of traditional-fuel vehicles and the deployment of NEV.
・Regulates the fuel efficiency upper limits for ICE-powered vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of ≤ 3,500 kg
・Requires production of new energy vehicles (EVs, PHVs, and FCVs) at specified ratios.
Dec.

Announcement of vehicle purchase  tax exemption for new energy vehicles

Ministry of Finance, Tax Administration  of , Ministry of Industry and  Information Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology 

・Approved NEVs purchased January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020 will be exempted from the vehicle purchase tax.
・Presented Chinese national standards (GB) for specialized items related to the requirements and inspection standards of NEVs


Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation

On September 27, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and  Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine proposed regulations for the “Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation” systems to strengthen the Chinese automobile industry by improving the fuel economy of passenger cars and promoting the popularization of NEVs, with the aim of protecting the environment and conserving energy. This management regulation stipulates the requirements for the fuel economy of passenger cars and has a provision mandating certain percentages for the production volumes of new energy vehicles (EV, PHV, and FCV).
The corporate average fuel economy target is 5.0L/100km by 2020, and is applicable to all automakers producing or importing passenger cars. Regarding the mandatory requirement for a certain percentage of NEVs, in 2019 automakers that sell 30,000 or more ICE-powered (gasoline, diesel, gaseous fuel) passenger cars annually must earn NEV credit points equivalent to 10% of the vehicles they produce in China or import, and this figure will rise to 12% in 2020. Both are for passenger cars with a gross vehicle weight of 3,500 kg or more.
Public notices and transactions related to credits are conducted through the Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New-Energy Vehicle Credits system of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. If a company fails to meet CAFC targets, a model that does not meet the fuel economy targets could be removed from the "Public notice for on-road-mobile vehicle makers and products" list and the China Compulsory Certificate system.

Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles Credits Joint Management Method Regulation

  Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFC) Credit
Introduction timing 2018
Applicable companies All passenger car manufacturing (or import) companies
Target vehicles Passenger cars with a gross vehicle weigh t of ≤ 3,500 kg
Target value 2018y 6.0L/100km  Yearly ratio 120%
2019y  5.5L/100km  Yearly ratio 110%
2020y  5.0L/100km  Yearly ratio 100%

Target value required by company Y = (fuel economy  of model A × production and import quantity of model A + fuel economy of model B × production or import quantity of model B + ...) ÷ Total volume of company Y production or import quantity for each model

CAFC Credit Formula (Passenger car fuel average economy standard value - passenger car average fuel economy actual value) x Production or import volume of passenger cars

・Standard value required for each company = target value required by each company × annual ratio
The passenger car average fuel economy standard value and passenger car average fuel consumption actual value required for each company are calculated based on the GB 27999-2014 standard "Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger cars ". This was publicly announced for fiscal year 2016 on April 5 by the Industrial Bureau of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
・Volumes for export are not included in the annual production volumes 
・The above calculation method is different for automakers that produce (or import) fewer than 2,000 units per year.

Credit treatment Credit surpluses can be carried over to the following year (80% in 2018, 90% in 2019), and it is possible to transfer credits to affiliated companies.
Credit deficits can be offset by the transfer of credits from affiliated companies to supplement a company’s own NEV credits, and by purchasing NEV credits from other companies.

(Source: "Corporate Average Fuel Economy Credits and the comprehensive system to measure in parallel with credits for New Energy Vehicles" and " Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger cars")



NEV credit management system and calculation method

  New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Credit
Introduction timing 2019
Applicable companies Automakers that produce or import over 30,000 ICE-powered (gasoline, diesel, or gaseous fuel) passenger cars
Target vehicle Passenger cars with a gross vehicle weight  of ≤ 3,500 kg
Target value For production or import of ICE-powered vehicles,
NEV credit of 10% for production volumes in 2019
NEV credit of 12% for production volumes in 2020
Credit treatment Positive credits cannot be carried forward to the following year (excluding 2019). It is possible to sell credits to other companies.
If credits are negative, an automaker can purchase credits from another company. If an automaker is unable to generate enough credits in fiscal year 2019, the company can make up the credit deficit in 2020.

 

  Granted credit The credit multiple changes according to the cost of electricity
Requirement Calculation formula per NEV credit 1.2 times (good) 1.0 times (standard) 0.5 times (poor)
EV

Drive ≥ 100 km in 30 minutes at maximum speed, range ≥ 100 km

0.012 × EV mode range (km) + 0.8 Meets electricity cost condition 2 (*1) Meets electricity cost condition 1 (*1) Does not meet electricity cost condition 1 (*1)
PHV Models with range <80 km and ≦50 km in EV mode 2 Credits (PHV shall have an EV range of ≥ 50 km) - B test (*2) fuel economy is less than 70% of fuel economy value stipulated for passenger cars B test Fuel economy is ≥ 70% of fuel economy value stipulated for passenger cars (*3) (in this case, 1 credit.)

Credits can only be used for the automaker

Models with a range of over 80 km in EV mode - A test (*2) electricity cost meets condition 1 A test electricity cost does not meet condition 1 (in this case, 1 credit.)
Credits can only be used for the automaker
FCV Range is ≥ 300 km, and fuel cell system rated output is ≥ 30% and ≥ 10 kW. 0.16 × system rated output (kW) - Meets condition When the condition on not satisfied.
Credits can only be used for the automaker

(*1) Refer to the table below for the electricity cost conditions.
(*2) The A test and the B test are stipulated in the GB19753-2013 standard "Test methods for energy consumption of light-duty hybrid electric vehicles "
(*3) Fuel economy values stipulated for passenger cars are based on the GB-19578-2014 standard "Fuel consumption limits for passenger cars".
(Source:"Corporate Average Fuel Economy Credits and the comprehensive system to measure in parallel with credits for New Energy Vehicles" and "Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger cars")

Electricity cost / fuel economy conditions

m:vehicle  mass
Y:Power consumption when traveling 100 km (kWh)
Condition 2 Condition 1
When m ≦ 1,000 kg, Y ≦ 0.0098 × m + 0.35 When m ≦ 1,000 kg, Y ≦ 0.014 × m + 0.5
When 1,000 kg <m ≦ 1,600 kg, Y ≦ 0.0084 × m + 1.75 When 1,000 kg <m ≦ 1,600 kg, Y ≦ 0.012 × m + 2.5
When 1,600 kg <m, Y ≦ 0.0035 × m + 9.59 When 1,600 kg <m, Y ≦ 0.005 × m + 13.7



●Example of NEV credit calculation

In this case, company A produces or imports 100,000 ICE-powered vehicles, EV 1,000 units, PHV 1 000 units per year (2019)

Annual production of ICE 100,000
Target credit 10,000 (NEV credits for 10% of production volume in 2019)
New energy vehicle classification EV model A PHV model B Total
Production volume(unit) 1,000 1,000 2,000
Kerb mass (kg) 1,270 2,080 -
Range (km) 200 60 -
Electric Efficienc  (kWh/100km) 12.3 - -
Condition 1 0.012×1270kg+2.5=17.74 - -
Condition 2 0.0084×1270kg+1.75=12.42 -
Credit multiples Electricity cost of 12.3 is better than the value of condition 2. 12.3 ≦ 12.42 -
Credit per unit x 1.2 -
Credit per unit (standard) 0.012×200km+0.8=3.2 2 -
Credit 3.2 × 1.2 times × 1,000 units =3,840 2×1,000 units =2,000 5,840

For company A’s target for 10,000 credits, since its total is 5,840, it will have to supplement the 4,160 credit shortfall.

 *Public notices and transactions related to credits are conducted through the "Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New-Energy Vehicle Credits system" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.



LMC Automotive Prediction: Number of NEV credits to be imposed on each manufacturer (2018)

According to LMC Automotive, assuming that an average of 3 credits is obtained per NEV, the graph below (in 1,000 units) shows the number of NEV each OEM will need to manufacture or import in 2018. Chinese OEMs are likely to achieve the 2018 targets at the current level of NEV production, but the targets may be difficult to achieve for foreign-owned automakers.

LMC Automotiveによる新エネルギー車
(Source: Presentation slides from the Automotive Market and Technology Forecasting Conference held on November 10, 2017)
Note: Unauthorized reproduction of this slide is prohibited. Licensing by LMC Automotive is required to reprint.


New EV automakers: major component suppliers also entering the industry

The following is a list of companies that have newly obtained an EV production license and been approved for NEV construction projects. The face of the industry is becoming more diversified and includes the automakers that are members of the major Chinese OEM groups, emerging EV makers, and even major automotive component suppliers. Some of the automakers are preparing to start mass production of NEVs in the near future, but others are currently limited to presenting concept cars.

Company name Area Total investment amount
(RMB 100 million)
EV passenger car production volume * Overview
Foreign capital ventures JAC Volkswagen Heifei City, Anhui 50.6 Phase 1:
100,000
・Joint venture OEM between JAC and VW. Jianghuai Automobile is VW’s third joint venture OEM. After the first phase of 100,000 units, the JV plans to increase production capacity to 360,000 units.
Production is scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2018.
BAIC Group Beijing New Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd.  (BJEV) Daxing District, Bejing City/ Qingdao City, Shandong 11.5 70,000 ・A BAIC Group NEV automaker with the No. 2 position in EV sales during the first half of 2017.
・Of the 70,000 units produced, 20,000 are prototype cars and high-end models for Headquarters in Caiyu, Daxing District, Beijing City.  50,000 units were produced at a new plant of a subsidiary in Qingdao City.
Chery Group Chery New Energy Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. Wuhu City, Anhui 20.5 85,000 ・Chery Automobile's NEV production plant was approved in November 2016.
・Of the 85,000 units, 60,000 were produced at a new plant. 25,000 units were a sedan model produced at Chery’s 3rd plant.
Geely Group Lanzhou Zhidou Electric Vehicles Company Limited  (ZD) Lanzhou City, Gansu 8.9 40,000 ・A city commuter automaker who signed a joint venture agreement with Geely in 2014.
・Utilizes the new plant at Geely’s Lanzhou site.
Jianling Group Jiangxi Jiangling Group New Energy Vehicle Co Ltd  (JMEV) Nanchang City, Jiangxi 13.3 50,000 ・OEM that develops mainly EV commercial vehicles and small EV and is part of the Jiangling Group (JMCG) founded in 2015.
・JMEV plans to develop more than 10 new models from 3 platforms within 5 years from 2017. Investing RMB 5 billion for the development of a wide range of models including sedans, SUVs, and MPVs. A new plant is scheduled to be in operation in the second half of 2019.
Fujian Group Yudo New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. (YUDO) Putian City, Fujian 18.9 65,000 ・Yudo is an EV automaker 39%-owned by the Fujian Motor Industry Group.
・The Fujian provincial government is sponsoring Yudo as a large project in Fujian's 13th Five-year plan (2016-2020). Founded in 2014. The directors are former major OEM executives.
・In October 2017 Yudo’s first electric SUV “Π 1” (Pi 1) was released.
Other OEM related group/company Chongqing Jinkang New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. Liangjiang New Area, Chongqing City 25.1 50,000 ・An EV manufacturer wholly-owned by the Chongqing Sokan Industrial Group, a JV partner with Dongfeng Motor's.
・After being approved in January 2017, it increased its capitalization in March.
・Established its North American subsidiary, SF Motor, and acquired a commercial vehicle assembly plant of military vehicle manufacturer AM General.
National New Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd.  (NEVS) Binhai New Area, Tianjin City 42.7 Phase 1:
50,000
・In January 2017 it was approved as an EV passenger car manufacturer. The parent company was previously SAAB’s Swedish NEVS (National Electric Vehicle Sweden).
・In December 2017, its plant was operational in the Tianjin Binhai New Area. It plans to produce 220,000 units annually. At its Tianjin plant, NEVS plans to manufacture two EV models (sedan, SUV) concept cars announced at the CES Asia show. Scheduled to be released in 2018.
Hangzhou Changjiang Automobile Co., Ltd. Hangzhou City, Zhejiang 8.0 50,000 ・OEM of the Wulong Group, which develops and designs battery cells and electric drive systems and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
・The predecessor of Changjiang Automobile was a bus maker founded in 1954.
・As of December 2017, it has developed 3 EV bus models and 1 small EV model.
Emerging EV Automakers Qiantu Motor Suzhou City, Jiangsu 20.2 50,000 ・Qiantu was founded in 2015 as a wholly-owned subsidiary of solution supplier CH-AUTO technology, conducting body design and R&D of finished vehicles. Qiantu exhibited its first concept car at the Beijing Motor Show in 2016.
・An inauguration ceremony was held in February 2016 for a new plant located in the Suzhou New District high tech development zone. The "K50" model will be released in 2018.
Guangdong Greenwheel Electric Vehicle Foshan City, Guangdong 17.8 50,000 ・A commercial NEV maker founded in 2000, with its headquarters in Shenzhen City.
・It was approved in May 2017. In addition to its Foshan plant, the company operates plants in Rugao City, Jiangsu Province for the production of 50,000 EV passenger cars, new energy buses and 5,000 special vehicles.
・It supplied EMS delivery vehicles to the post office of Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province.
Hozon Auto Jiaxing City, Zhejinag 11.6 50,000

・Established in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province in October 2014.

・Production model will be released in 2019. Research and development is conducted jointly with Tsinghua University. Targeting annual sales of 100,000 units in 2020.
Henan Suda EV Sanmenxia City, Henan 26.4 100,000 ・NEV automaker, founded in September 2010.
・In addition to the construction of a plant for 100,000 finished cars, it is also implementing a project for the manufacture of 500,000 sets of EV-related components. It is establishing an R&D department in Shanghai.
Major parts suppliers Jiangsu MIN'AN EV Co., Ltd Huai’an City, Jiangsu 25.0 50,000 ・Established in 2013 with a joint venture between Cheerplan (China) Investment Co., Ltd. and HUAI’AN Development Holding Co., Ltd., which is part of the Minth Group, a major automobile interior parts supplier.
・Plant construction started in 2017. Plans to launch its own EV in 2018.
Wanxiang Group Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang 27.5 50,000 ・Established as a repair shop for agricultural machinery in 1969. A major Chinese group company with over 40,000 employees supplying components to automakers.
・In January 2013 Wanxiang acquired U.S. battery manufacturer A123 Systems, which had been under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. In April 2014 Wanxiang acquired U.S EV automaker Fisker Automotive, renaming it as Karma Automotive in 2016, which currently develops and manufactures HEV in North America.
・In January 2016, a 5,000 unit new energy bus project with a total investment of 2.06 billion yuan was approved.

*The number of units produced at the time of NEV approval.
(Source: Created by MarkLines using presentation materials of the National Development Council, and various company materials and various reports)



NEV trend of major OEMs

Below is a summary of the NEV trends of the major OEM and OEM groups.

Group/Maker NEV-related trends in China
VW ・Established a joint venture with Jianghuai Automobile, with production scheduled to begin in 2018.
・By 2020, VW is aiming to sell 400,000 units annually across its 3 brands (Audi, VW, Skoda). VW will launch a new EV based on the dedicated MEB electric vehicle platform.
Daimler ・Daimler plans to produce its EQ brand of electric vehicles in China. Also plans to establish battery factory.
BMW ・Plans to introduce 25 models (12 EV models, 13 PHV models) by 2025.
・Begins production of a battery assembly plant in January 2018. Plans to expand plant capacity.
PSA ・Plans to introduce EV and PHV based on the e-CMP modular platform targeted for the B/C segments, and the EMP2 modular platform targeted for the C/D segments.
・ Plans to introduce four EV models by 2021, and seven PHV models in the 2019-2021 timeframe. Plans to introduce its DS brand for PHV in 2019.
Renault ・Plans to produce three EV models by 2022, and specializes in SUV. (Dongfeng-Renault)
・Manufactures NEV commercial vehicles at the Brilliance-Renault JV established in December 2017. Targeting sales of 150,000 units annually by 2020.
Renault-Nissan ・In August 2017, agreed to establish “eGT New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd.”, a joint venture company that will jointly develop EVs for the joint ventures of the Renault-Nissan Alliance and Dongfeng Motors.
・Will start production of small EVs at Dongfeng’s Shiyan plant in 2019. Plans production of 120,000 units annually.
Toyota ・Evaluating the supply of EVs from its joint ventures (FAW, GAC). Will introduce the Toyota EV brand developed in Japan in 2020.
Honda

・EVs developed jointly by Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda will be released in 2018 for each joint venture brand.
・Will jointly develop solutions such as battery control and vehicle data management technology with the Neusoft Group, China's leading IT solution service provider.

Ford ・By 2025, will introduce at least 15 EV models for the Ford and Lincoln brands. In 2019, plans to introduce a compact electric SUV, which will become the Ford brand global model.
・In September 2019, Ford will start production of compact EVs with joint venture partner Zetye Automobile (Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province; annual production capacity of 100,000 units).
GM ・Release 10 new energy vehicles by 2020.
・Plans to launch a battery assembly plant scheduled to start mass production within 2017; currently in pre-launch trial operation.
Hyundai ・GM plans to introduce 9 NEV models (EVs, PHVs, HEVs, FCVs) by 2020.
・Released the Elantra EV from Beijing Hyundai in August 2017 and the EV Huai (Hooki) from Dongfeng Kia in January. The Sonata PHV will be introduced in 2018.
BYD ・Targeting EV sales of over 200,000 vehicles in 2018.
・Will continue to introduce NEV, not only passenger cars but also commercial vehicles such as buses and specially equipped vehicles.
BAIC ・Beijing Electric Vehicle Co. (BJEV) will introduce eighteen models by 2020, targeting a production volume of 800,000 units and a sales volume of 500,000 units.
・In addition, the BAIC Group announced that it will stop selling gasoline-powered vehicles under its own brand in the city of Beijing in 2020, and that in 2025 it will stop producing and selling gasoline-vehicles of its own brand in China entirely.
GAC ・Targeting annual sales of 200,000 units of its own brand vehicles by 2020.
・GAC New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. , established in 2017, plans to introduce two NEV models every year from 2019.
Changan ・Complete three dedicated NEV platforms in 2020.
・Stop selling gasoline-powered vehicles in 2025. Will release NEV model (21 EV models, 12 PHV models).
Geely ・ By 2020, 90% of the group’s sales volume shall be for NEV (including HEV).
Chery ・By 2020, targeting 5 models and annual sales of 200,000 units.
SAIC ・Targeting annual sales of 200,000 units of its own brand cars by 2020.
Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle Company(FengShen) ・Plans to introduce 6 models by 2020.
FAW Car ・By 2020, will build an EV, HEV, PHV lineup with Hongqi brand.

(Source: Created by MarkLines based on various company and news reports)

 



LMC Automotive Prediction: China's Electric Vehicle Market

Shown are the forecasts by LMC Automotive for electric vehicle sales in the China market.

 FHEV:Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle
 MHEV:Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle
 FCEV:Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
 EREV:Extended Range Electric Vehicle
 PHEV:Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
 BEV:Battery Electric Vehicle

*The Chinese government categorizes NEV to include FCEV, EREV, PHEV, and BEV, but LMC Automotive defines NEV to also include FHEV and MHEV.

LMC AutomotiveによるNEV市場台数予測
(Source: Presentation slides from the Automotive Market and Technology Forecasting Conference held on November 10, 2017)

 Note: Unauthorized reproduction of this slide is prohibited. Licensing by LMC Automotive is required to reprint.

More detailed forecast data (~ 2024) by LMC Automotive is also available by model, by powertrain type (engine, transmission), etc.
Please go here for details.

Keyword
China, Policy, NEV, Dual-credit, EV, PHV, FCV

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