Toyota: FY 2014 forecasted profit is highest since Lehman Brothers crisis

Expects to sell 5 million Toyota and Lexus branded vehicles in emerging countries

2013/11/20

Summary

Consolidated Operating Profit and contributing factors  Toyota Motor Corporation is expected to end the fiscal year ending in March 2014 (FY 2014) with consolidated operating profit of JPY 2.2 trillion restoring the peak level marked for FY 2008. Toyota has plans for Toyota Group to produce 10.12 million units in calendar year 2013 and sell 10.10 million units in FY 2014.
  With lessons learned from its experience during the Lehman Brothers crisis, Toyota is aiming for “sustainable growth” by further improving its business efficiency. In April 2013, Toyota announced resolutions to clarify responsibility for operations and earnings and increase the speed of decision-making. To this end, Toyota’s automotive business was divided into four units: Toyota No. 1 covering advanced markets, Toyota No. 2 covering emerging markets, Lexus International and the Unit Center.
  The second half of the report will introduce the key plans for Toyota No. 2. These plans include establishing a local integrated production network, developing strategic small vehicles for emerging markets, and selling 5 million units of Toyota and Lexus vehicles (excluding Daihatsu and Hino). Plans for Toyota No. 1 will be introduced in a separate report.


Related Reports:
Toyota's sales and earnings are in full-scale recovery (posted in January 2013)
Toyota's earnings improvement plans for development, procurement and production (Posted in June 2012)



 Operating profit of JPY 2.2 trillion forecast for FY 2014

 Toyota's financial results for the six-month period ended September 30, 2013, showed net revenues of JPY 12.54 triillion (an increase of 14.9% year-over-year(y/y)) and operating profit of JPY 1.26 trillion (an increase of 81.0%). The increase of JPY 561.7 billion included cost reduction efforts of JPY 140 billion and currency fluctuations of JPY540 billion. The consolidated vehicle unit sales totaled 4,468,000 units, a decrease of 1.1%, which was more than offset by 20-yen depreciation of the yen from 79 to 99 yen per US dollar (from 101 to 130 yen per euro).

 Toyota forecasts its financial results for the full FY 2014 to include net revenues of JPY 25 trillion and operating profit of JPY 2.2 trillion, which equals to 97% of the JPY 2.27 trillion operating profit marked in the peak FY 2008. The increase in operating profit is due in part to the company's cost reduction efforts totaling JPY 1.5 trillion in five years from FY 2009 to FY 2014 and other profit improvement efforts along with the yen's depreciation.

 The above forecast assumes average foreign currency exchange rates of 97 yen per US dollar through the fiscal year based on the 99 yen in the April to September period and the 95 yen through the second half of the fiscal year. Depending on the actual exchange rate in the second half period, Toyota may end the fiscal year with the record high operating profit. Toyota's exchange rate assumptions through the FY 2014 fluctuated from 90 yen per US dollar in May, to 92 yen in August, and again to 97 yen in November. The operating profit forecast for the full fiscal year also increased from JPY 1.8 trillion to JPY 1.94 trillion and to JPY 2.2 trillion.

 Toyota's unconsolidated operating profit for FY 2013 was JPY 242.1 billion marking the first profit in five years after FY 2009. The company is expecting an operating profit of JPY 1.04 triillion for FY 2014, close to JPY 1.11 trillion in the peak FY 2008.

 Toyota will invest JPY 900 billion on consolidated basis and JPY 790 billion on unconsolidated basis in research and development in FY 2014. Ninety percent of the total amount will be spent at home in Japan for the development of hybrid vehicles, fuel-cell vehicles and other cutting-edge technologies. Introduction of TNGA (Toyota New Global Architecture) is another area of investment.

 Toyota is investing JPY 940 billion in equipment on consolidated basis. This includes JPY 440 billion to be invested locally in Japan.

Consolidated Results

(in millions of yen)
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
Forecast
Apr.-Sep.
2012
Apr.-Sep.
2013
Net Revenues
Operating profit
Profit before income Taxes
Net profit
18,993,688
468,279
563,290
408,183
18,583,653
355,627
432,873
283,559
22,064,192
1,320,888
1,403,649
962,163
25,000,000
2,200,000
2,290,000
1,670,000
10,908,354
693,750
794,537
548,269
12,537,485
1,255,475
1,343,525
1,000,623
R&D expenses
Capital expenditure
Depreciation Expenses
730,300
642,300
812,300
779,800
706,700
732,900
807,400
852,700
727,200
900,000
940,000
770,000
407,400
319,200
343,600
476,900
427,200
368,700
Market share
(Japan)
Toyota (excl. mini) 47.3% 45.5% 48.4% approx.
48%
48.9% 48.3%
Toyota, Daihatsu, Hino 43.7% 43.2% 44.3% - 45.1% 43.2%
Forex Yen to USD rate 86 79 83 97 79 99
Yen to EURO rate 113 109 107 130 101 130

Source: Toyota's consolidated financial results announced in May and November 2013. Forecast for FY2014 are those announced in November 2013.
(Note) FY2013 is the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013.

 

Factors contributing to increase and decrease of Toyota's consolidated operating profit

(in billions of yen)
Marketing efforts Fluctuation of exchange rates Cost improvement efforts Overhead costs Reduction of fixed costs, financing Increase and decrease of operating profit Operating profit and loss for current fiscal
FY2008 (1,480) (760) 0 (491.3) (2,731.3) (461)
FY2009 (370) (320) 520 38.5 740 608.5 147.5
FY2010 490 (290) 180 (59.3) 320.7 468.2
FY2011 150 (250) 150 (162.6) (112.6) 355.6
FY2013 (Note 2) 650 150 450 (284.8) 965.2 1,320.8
FY 2014 Forecast 115 740 200 (175.8) 879.2 2,200
Sources: Toyota's consolidated financial results. Forecast for the full FY 2014 are those announced in November 2013.
(Notes) 1. "Marketing efforts," "sales" and "quantities and model mix" (which vary by the fiscal year) are combined under "marketing efforts."
2. According to Toyota, the company has achieved, in FY 2013, the targets expressed in Toyota Global Vision that was announced in March 2011: consolidated operating profit rate of 5% (equivalent to JPY 1 trillion) and restoration of the company to profitability (unconsolidated) under the precondition of the exchange rate of USD 1= JPY 85 and Toyota and Lexus sales volume of 7.5 million vehicles. The main contributors included reduction of capital investment and continued efforts toward cost reduction. It is said that Toyota can now maintain profits only from Toyota and Lexus-brand vehicle sales of 7 million.

 

Changes in forecasts for net revenues and operating profit for FY 2014 at different times of announcement

Announced
in May 2013
Announced
in August, 2013
Announced
in November, 2013
Business forecast
(in billions of yen)
Net Revenues(in billions of JPY) 23,500 24,000 25,000
Consolidated Operating Profit (in billions of JPY) 1,800 1,940 2,200
Operating Income
increase from Forex
400 520 740
Exchange rates
for full fiscal year
1 USD 90 yen 92 yen 97 yen
1 EURO 120 yen 122 yen 130 yen
Consolidated unit sales 9,100,000 9,100,000 9,100,000
(Notes) 1. The consolidated vehicle unit sales do not include those produced and shipped by joint-ventures in China and other unconsolidated companies.
2. The consolidated vehicle unit sales forecast for the full-year of  FY 2014 remain unchanged at 9.1 million units. The regional forecast for Asia, however, was reduced by 120,000 units from the May announcement of 1.76 million units to 1.64 million units in November. To make up for the decrease, the sales forecast for Japan was increased by 110,000 units to 2.23 million units in anticipation of last-minute demand before the tax hike. In addition, sales forecast for Middle East was increased by 10,000 units.

 

 



Toyota Group's sales plan for 10.10 million units in FY 2014

 In August 2013, Toyota announced that Toyota Group's production including Daihatsu, Hino (also including those produced by joint-venture companies in China and other unconsolidated companies) in 2013 would reach 10.12 million units topping the 10 million units mark for the first time.

 The Group's vehicle retail sales will total 9.96 million units at the end of the calendar year 2013 and 10.10 million units in FY 2014 (ending in March 2014), also topping the 10 million units mark (compared to the past record-high of 9.43 million units in FY 2008).

 Toyota's production (excluding those by Daihatsu and Hino) in Japan in 2013 is planned for 3.35 million units. However, production in Japan in 2014 is likely to fall to around 3 million units due to a rebound from last-minute demand related to the tax hike in April 2014. Although it is barely enough for the company to stay competitive, Toyota regards it as a temporal plunge resulting from an advance demand.

Vehicle Production

(1,000 units)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Plan
Toyota 8,540 8,210 6,371 7,630 6,970 8,740 8,900
Daihatsu 860 910 n.a. 820 810 1,000 1,040
Hino 110 110 n.a. 110 130 180 180
Total 9,510 9,230 n.a. 8,550 7,910 9,920 10,120

Sources: Results and forecasts announced at the end of respective years. Figures for 2009 are taken from Toyota website for lack of the year-end announcement. Plans for 2013 are those announced in August 2013.
(Note) Group's production and total retail sales include production and shipments by joint-venture companies in China and other unconsolidated companies.

 

Total Retail Sales
(1,000 units)
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
Forecast
Group's Total
Retail Sales
9,430 8,327 8,139 8,423 8,334 9,692 10,100

Source: Toyota's consolidated financial results

 

Toyota's global vehicle production and sales plan for 2013

(1,000 units)
Toyota Daihatsu Hino Total
Plan for 2013 Vehicle Retail Sales Japan 1,550 620 40 2,220
Overseas 7,400 220 120 7,740
Total 8,950 840 170 9,960
Vehicle Production Japan 3,350 740 160 4,250
Overseas 5,550 290 20 5,870
Total 8,900 1,040 180 10,120

Source: Toyota's press release dated August 2, 2013

 

 



Organizational change to ensure clearer earnings responsibility and faster decision-making

 Toyota is restoring profitability. In the course of recovery from the Lehman Brothers crisis, the company learned a lesson that sustainable growth was more important and that "always better cars" is what drives the sustainable growth.

 Toyota has grown in scale to produce and sell 9 million vehicles under Toyota and Lexus brand a year in 2013. In view that the corporate scale has grown beyond control by a single president, Toyota decided to split the automotive business into four business units: Toyota No. 1 (covering advanced markets), Toyota No. 2 (covering emerging markets), Lexus International (Lexus business) and Unit Center (powertrain components). The decision was made to clarify operations and earnings responsibilities, speed up the decision-making process, and attain competitiveness that will lead to the company's sustainable growth.

 Toyota No. 1, in charge of advanced markets, will initially support Lexus International and businesses in emerging markets as they will require large fixed investments to establish the brand and build the network for production and sales.

 Toyota No. 2, in charge of emerging markets, is reorganized from three regional groups including China to five groups. The main targets are China, which is the largest market in the world, the ASEAN region, and India and Brazil with growth potential. Myanmar, Cambodia and Kenya are considered as future strategic markets. When Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales increase to 10 million units in the future, half the total quantity (5 million) will fall under the responsibility of Toyota No. 2.

 Another organizational change is conducted for making medium- to long-term product plans. Toyota New Global Architecture (TNGA) Planning Division and Product & Business Planning Division are established as independent divisions. Their immediate responsibility is to develop vehicles that will lead the world in terms of market value, cost and quality. The new models developed by TNGA are expected to reach markets from around 2015.

Four business units of automotive business (effective April 1, 2013)

Lexus International  Global headquarters of Lexus brand under direct control of President Toyoda
Toyota No. 1  In charge of North America, Europe and Japan  Integrated Toyota-brand business from planning,production,and to sales
Toyota No. 2 In charge of China, Asia & Middle East, East Asia & Oceania, Africa, Latin America & Caribbean
Unit Center  All operations from powertrain component planning and development to production engineering under control by the vice-president doubling as the Center's director

Source: Toyota PR material of March 16, 2013

 

Reorganization of region groups
Before change (6 groups) After change (8 groups)
Asia & Oceania, Middle East,
Africa & Latin America
East Asia & Oceania Toyota No. 2
Asia & Middle East
Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
China No changes
North America Toyota No. 1
Europe
Domestic sales (Japan)

(Note) Europe is the only region that currently has a non-Japanese group director. The North
American, African and Latin American regions each will soon have a non-Japanese director.

 

New divisions with an overall corporate-wide responsibility

TNGA Planning Division  To formulate technology-based medium to long-term strategies for products (vehicles and unit components)and keep promoting "ever-better cars"
Product & Business Planning Division  To formulate market-based medium-term strategies for products and business

 

 



Increasing vehicle production capacities in emerging countries

 Toyota plans to increase the ratio of its sales (excluding Daihatsu and Hino) in emerging countries from 45% in 2012 to 50% in 2015. Toyota only has limited market shares in many emerging markets and, there is much room for market expansion.

 In 2012 to 2013, Toyota started production at new plants, increased capacities at existing plants, and announced future plans as shown below. Annual capacities in main countries will be increased to 140,000 units in Brazil, 310,000 units in India, 250,000 units in Indonesia and 770,000 units in Thailand.

 In addition, Toyota has established Knock-Down (KD) Business Planning Division to expand KD production in emerging countries.

 While medium- to long-term growth is expected in emerging countries, Toyota is facing problems in Asia. These include higher interest rates in India and a decline in Thai demand due to the discontinued tax privileges. As a result, Toyota's consolidated sales in Asia from April to September 2013 plunged to 780,000 units from 840,000 units a year earlier. Accordingly, Toyota announced a moderate forecast for the full fiscal year at 1.84 million units, down 44,000 units from the previous fiscal year.

Building new plants and increasing capacities at existing plants for completed vehicles in emerging countries

Country and plants Production model Annual capacity Start of production Investment
India 2nd Plant (Note 1) Etios, Corolla Altis Increased from 70,000 to 210,000 units Early 2013 JPY 17.2 billion
China Sichuan FAW Toyota's Changchun New Plant Corolla
(Switched to RAV4
since September 2013)
100,000 May 2012 Approx.
JPY 50 billion
Sichuan FAW Toyota's Chengdu Plant (Note 2) Land Cruiser Prado Increased from 30,000 to 50,000 units March 2015 Approx.
JPY 5 billion
Brazil Sorocaba Plant
(Note 3)
Etios 70,000 September 2012 USD 0.6 billion
Thailand Gateway 2nd Plant
(Note 4)
Small passenger car 80,000 August 2013 JPY 34 billion
Indonesia Karawang 2nd Plant
(Note 5)
Etios Valco 70,000 March 2013 JPY 33 billion
120,000 Early 2014
Kazakhstan (Note 6) Fortuner
(Complete Knockdown(CKD) production)
3,000 units per year Spring 2014
Russia Vladivostok (Note 7) Land Cruiser Prado
(CKD production)
1,000 units per year February 2013
St. Petersburg (Note 8) RAV4
(CKD production)
Increased from 50,000 to 100,000 units 2016 JPY 18 billion
Argentina (Note 9) Hilux/Fortuner Increased from 92,000 to 140,000 units End of 2015 JPY 17 billion
(Notes) 1. The capacity at the second plant in India was increased to 120,000 units in the first half of 2012 and to 210,000 units in early 2013. Toyota now has total annual production capacity of 310,000 units at the two plants in India.
2. Production of the 2.7-liter engine-powered Land Cruiser Prado will start at Sichuan FAW Toyota Motor's Chengdu plant where the 4.0-liter Prado is being produced.
3. The Sorocaba plant in Brazil has been producing the Etios since September 2012. Total production capacity in Brazil was increased to 140,000 units. The company is considering increasing the capacity further at the Sorocaba plant depending on demand fluctuation.
4. Operation started at the Gateway No. 2 plant in Thailand in August 2013. This has increased Toyota's total annual production capacity in Thailand to 770,000 units including the figures at four existing plants (Samrong, Gateway No. 1, Ban Pho, Thai Auto Works). In 2012, Toyota produced a total of 881,000 units with regular shifts plus overtime work.
5. In March 2013, production of a small-sized model, the Etios Valco, started at the Karawang No. 2 plant in Indonesia. The plant's anuual production capacity will be 120,000 units at the beginning of 2014. This will increase the total capacity in Indonesia to 250,000 units per year.
6. In January 2013, Toyota's KD production group was promoted as the KD Business Planning Division. Toyota began CKD production of the Fortuner in Pakistan where the Corolla and the Hilux have been produced since 1993. Parts are exported from Japan and Thailand to assemble 2,000 units of the Fortuner annually.
7. Assembly of the Land Cruiser Prado started at Sollers-Bussan's new plant in Vladivostok, Russia. The assembled vehicles are delivered mainly by railways and sold by Toyota's sales channel.
8. Toyota imported and sold 27,000 units of the RAV4 in Russia in January to August 2013. The RAV4 has become the company's best-selling model in Russia. The Camry is currently produced at the St. Petersburg plant and CKD production of the RAV4 will be added starting in 2016.
9. Toyota exported 63,000 units from the plant in Argentina in 2012 to 15 countries in Central and South Americas including Brazil. The new export quantity after the capacity increase will be around 110,000 units. Toyota will increase production capacity in view of the demand increase in the future.

 

 



Producing more engines with higher local content ratios in emerging countries

 Local production of engines is the key factor to stay competitive in emerging countries where low-priced models are in high demand. In this regard, Toyota is strengthening engine production capacities in those countries.

 Main engine components are currently shipped from Japan and assembled locally in emerging countries. Thailand is an exception where Toyota is introducing integrated local production from casting to final assembly.

Building new and increasing capacity of existing powertrain plants in emerging countries

Country and plants Items Capacity Start of production Investment
China CVT Plant in Jiangsu CVT 240,000 September 2014 USD 285 million
India TKAP Engine Plant Petrol engine for Etios 100,000 Autumn 2012 JPY 9 billion
TKAP Transmission Plant Transmission for Etios 240,000 Early 2013
Toyota Industries (Note 1) Diesel engine for IMV Series 110,000 Spring 2015
Thailand Siam Toyota Manufacturing
(STM) (Note 2)
Petrol engine Increased from
580,000 to 680,000
Early 2014 JPY 14 billion
Diesel engine for IMV Series Increased from
320,000 to 610,000
2015 JPY 40 billion
Brazil Engine Plant (Note 3) Four-cylinder engine 200,000 Second half of 2015
Indonesia New Engine Plant (Note 4) Engine for passenger car 216,000 First half of 2016 JPY 23 billion
(Notes) 1. The KD type 2500 to 3000cc diesel engines for Toyota's next IMVs (Innovative International Multi-purpose Vehicles) reportedly will be produced for Toyota by Toyota Industries in India. The engines are currently produced at Toyota's Thai plant and Toyota Industries' Higashichita plant in Japan.
2-1. Toyota's production capacity for gasoline engines in Thailand will be increased by 100,000 units to 680,000 units in early 2014. The additional 100,000 units will be produced locally from casting to final assembly. The other engine parts will be shipped from Japan as before for local assembly.
2-2. The production capacity for diesel engines will be increased from 320,000 to 610,000 units for use on the next IMV models. The additional 290,000 units will be produced locally from casting of engine blocks to final assembly. When all capacity increase plans go well, Toyota's engine production capacity in Thailand will amount to 1.29 million units in 2015. The company reportedly plans to further increase the capacity by 70,000 units.
3. The engine plant in Brazil will produce 1.3- and 1.5-liter engines for the Etios. The plant will also produce 1.8- and 2.0-liter engines for the Corolla currently produced at the Indaiatuba plant.
4. The Sunter No. 1 plant in Indonesia is producing engines for IMVs (annual production capacity of 195,000 units) and exporting them to the ASEAN countries, Central and South America and Africa. The new plant will produce 1200cc to 1500cc engines starting in 2016 for the all-new small cars that will reach markets in the future. Toyota has plans to export the engines.
5-1. Daihatsu is renovating the engine production line at Astra Daihatsu Motor, its subsidiary company in Indonesia. The plant will add a new line that will have equipment to produce engines using locally procured parts. This line will increase the company's local content ratio from 50% to 80%. Production of engines will be switched gradually from the existing line to the new one. The total annual production capacity will remain the same (530,000 units). The renovation will  increase the company's cost competitiveness and improve quality.
5-2. Astra Daihatsu Motor produced 256,000 vehicles, including 158,000 Toyota vehicles, in April to September 2013.

 

 



Developing small cars for emerging countries jointly with Daihatsu

 Toyota No. 2 will strengthen Toyota's competitive arenas such as commercial vehicles and IMVs. The division will develop small cars in A- and B-segments that are  scarce in Toyota's portfolio in emerging markets. Low-priced small cars are in high demand in emerging markets, and Toyota need to develop a vehicle with different perspectives from traditional Toyota-brand vehicles. The company will collaborate with Daihatsu to develop such cars.

 Toyota has been producing the Etios  in India since 2010 and in Brazil since 2012. The Etios is Toyota's strategic model that was developed targeting emerging countries. It resulted from a careful research in market needs in India and other parts of Asia. The Etios has a starting price of INR 550,000. It was developed for a higher-than-average market in India where INR 300,000-class cars are in highest demand. It is reported that Toyota failed to lower the cost to a necessary level. The Etios (sedan) and Etios Liva (hatchback) sold 51,354 units combined from January to October in India, beaten by Honda's combined sales of 69,623 units of the Brio (hatchback) and Amaze (sedan) for the same time frame.

 In September 2013, the Agya, produced and supplied by Daihatsu, was launched in Indonesia. Its price ranges from IDR 99 million to IDR 120 million.

 Additionally, Toyota launched all-new B-segment models, the Vios and Yaris, in Thailand and China in 2013.

 It is said that Toyota has plans to collaborate with Daihatsu to develop A-segment models for emerging countries at half the cost of conventional models, and launch them in 2018.

Toyota's model plans for emerging countries

Model Country Description
Etios India, Brazil  Production of the Etios started in 2010 in India. The Etios sedan measures 4265mm by 1695mm by 1510mm and is powered by 1500cc petrol or 1360cc diesel engine. Its price starts from INR 550,000. The hatchback version, Etios Liva, has the overall length of 3775mm and a 1200cc gasoline engine. Its price starts from INR 450,000. All other specs are the same as the sedan.
Indonesia  The Etios Valco is a small hatchback model powered by 1200cc petrol engine. Its price ranges from IDR 135 to IDR 161 million. It has a local content ratio of 55% which will be increased to over 80%.
New Vios Thailand  In March 2013, Toyota launched the all-new Vios, a B-segment model produced at Gateway No. 1 plant in Thailand. It is powered by 1500cc engine and measures 4410mm by 1700mm by 1475mm. Its price ranges from THB 559,000 to THB 734,000.
 Toyota will produce approximately 130,000 units of the all-new Vios a year in Thailand. Toyota will sell over 80,000 units locally in Thailand, and export over 40,000 units to more than 80 countries.
China  Production and sales of the all-new Vios started in China in November 2013. The car has the record-high local content ratio of 18% from local Chinese suppliers alone.
Other countries  KD production of the all-new Vios in Malaysia and Taiwan is planned as was the case with the previous model.
New Yaris Thailand  In October 2013, Toyota launched the all-new Yaris in Thailand. The previous versions were identical with the Vitz or Yaris sold in Japan and Europe. The new Yaris was developed on an all-new platform targeting emerging countries. Fitted with 1200cc engine and CVT, the new Yaris complies with the Thai government's eco-car program. Its price ranges from THB 469,000 to THB 599,000.
China  Production of the new Yaris in China will start at the end of 2013 along with the Vios.
Agya Indonesia  In September 2013, the Toyota Agya, produced and supplied by Daihatsu, was launched in Indonesia. It is powered by 1000cc engine and is 3600mm long. The basic MT model has vehicle weight of 740kg. The Agya's price ranges from IDR 99 million to IDR 120 million. The price of the Daihatsu Ayla ranges from IDR 76.1 million to IDR 106.5 million as it is offered as the most affordable car sold by Japanese OEMs in Indonesia. Both the Agya and the Ayla are approved under the Indonesian government's LCGC (Low Cost Green Car) program.
IMV Series Emerging countries  Full redesigning is slated for 2015 in accordance with TNGA (Toyota New Global Architecture).
Developing new A-segment vehicles for emerging countries jointly with Daihatsu
New A-segment vehicles Emerging countries  Toyota reportedly is collaborating with Daihatsu to develop A-segment models for emerging countries at half the cost of existing models. Their market launch is scheduled for 2018 at the earliest. The new A-segment models will be developed in accordance with TNGA.
 Toyota plans to increase local content ratios starting from raw materials. The company reportedly is reviewing the strict quality standards currently applied to its suppliers, and will introduce more general standards to accept low-priced parts and allow production by native local suppliers other than those in Toyota Group.

 

 



Sales Forecast by LMC Automotive: Toyota group sales forecast in major 54 countries through 2016

(LMC Automotive, October, 2013)

 LMC Automotive forecasts that Toyota Group's light vehicle sales in major 54 countries will be 9,268,000 units in 2016, up by 7.7% from 2012.

 LMC Automotive comments that Toyota will retain its present strategy; to expand its hybrid products in response to growing eco-friendly vehicle needs, mainly in the Japanese and North American markets, and to add affordable small car models to emerging markets in Asia and South American markets. Sales in US will increase to 2,369,600 units in 2016, up by 13.8% from 2012.

 [Also the company forecasts] that the negative impact of political issues in China is to gradually ease, and for sales in China to start growing in 2014, reaching 1 million units by 2015, though there is little doubt that the dispute has taken a toll on most Japanese OEMs' sales. However, the Japanese market is shrinking, and LMC assumes it will remain at the 2 million unit level in the long run.

 The following data is the forecast of 54 major countries (countries in the Middle East, etc. not included).

Toyota Group Sales Forecast of 54 major countries by LMC Automotive.

(units)
COUNTRY GLOBAL MAKE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
54 Countries Total 7,465,878 6,995,029 8,602,344 8,559,172 8,588,101 8,942,464 9,267,660
Argentina Toyota 31,024 36,503 44,722 50,860 59,562 62,381 60,929
Australia Lexus 6,519 6,346 6,660 6,668 6,590 7,077 7,364
Scion 1,088 1,183 823 576 809 845 867
Toyota 213,677 180,441 217,353 201,200 208,828 219,196 221,557
sub-total 221,284 187,970 224,836 208,444 216,227 227,118 229,788
Austria Daihatsu 490 288 246 5 0 0 0
Lexus 214 379 285 217 318 511 488
Toyota 10,275 9,352 8,520 9,472 9,847 9,768 9,319
sub-total 10,979 10,019 9,051 9,694 10,165 10,279 9,807
Belgium Daihatsu 294 165 90 3 0 0 0
Lexus 636 1,122 1,290 907 1,257 2,207 2,052
Toyota 21,449 23,136 17,459 18,905 19,506 20,439 20,930
sub-total 22,379 24,423 18,839 19,815 20,763 22,646 22,982
Brazil Lexus 17 8 34 140 121 154 166
Toyota 99,391 99,089 113,665 169,593 174,175 183,227 193,053
sub-total 99,408 99,097 113,699 169,733 174,296 183,381 193,219
Bulgaria Lexus 42 91 47 71 62 65 80
Toyota 1,897 1,955 2,066 1,953 1,751 2,039 2,377
sub-total 1,939 2,046 2,113 2,024 1,813 2,104 2,457
Canada Lexus 14,220 13,357 15,099 14,582 15,463 19,406 20,591
Scion 679 4,712 3,268 3,061 4,588 5,173 5,387
Toyota 157,044 144,184 173,671 173,540 167,624 167,244 168,909
sub-total 171,943 162,253 192,038 191,183 187,675 191,823 194,887
Chile Daihatsu 157 749 932 977 1,352 1,632 1,734
Lexus 450 459 398 370 480 490 480
Toyota 24,908 23,151 25,629 27,272 30,774 33,073 37,060
sub-total 25,515 24,359 26,959 28,619 32,606 35,195 39,274
China Daihatsu 48,499 33,510 30,953 25,275 23,378 24,744 29,273
Lexus 49,137 52,055 60,636 61,331 74,584 80,316 82,314
Scion 0 236 551 319 357 388 427
Toyota 808,143 844,783 793,965 785,704 836,468 928,597 975,051
sub-total 905,779 930,584 886,105 872,629 934,787 1,034,045 1,087,065
Colombia Daihatsu 0 633 448 301 322 351 362
Toyota 0 13,335 15,643 14,950 14,966 15,582 16,390
sub-total 0 13,968 16,091 15,251 15,288 15,933 16,752
Czech Republic Lexus 155 140 160 183 197 190 215
Toyota 5,021 4,218 4,243 4,832 5,512 5,680 5,714
sub-total 5,176 4,358 4,403 5,015 5,709 5,870 5,929
Denmark Lexus 16 58 32 49 84 96 79
Toyota 13,524 14,974 17,051 14,744 13,450 15,109 14,869
sub-total 13,540 15,032 17,083 14,793 13,534 15,205 14,948
Ecuador Toyota 9,401 5,545 6,138 7,762 9,196 9,903 9,600
Estonia Lexus 79 82 140 113 103 116 135
Toyota 1,305 2,019 2,758 2,475 2,511 2,890 3,263
sub-total 1,384 2,101 2,898 2,588 2,614 3,006 3,398
Finland Lexus 129 217 203 111 255 403 406
Toyota 17,641 16,586 14,868 12,367 13,227 14,731 17,435
sub-total 17,770 16,803 15,071 12,478 13,482 15,134 17,841
France Daihatsu 1,083 217 352 38 0 0 0
Lexus 1,921 2,871 2,456 2,148 2,338 4,183 4,230
Toyota 69,337 71,410 72,486 73,001 76,678 78,261 81,939
sub-total 72,341 74,498 75,294 75,187 79,016 82,444 86,169
Germany Daihatsu 5,276 3,928 1,262 23 0 0 0
Lexus 2,035 2,729 2,856 2,311 3,665 5,181 4,854
Toyota 78,127 82,766 82,953 77,198 79,868 80,000 80,538
sub-total 85,438 89,423 87,071 79,532 83,533 85,181 85,392
Greece Daihatsu 1,853 956 188 112 0 0 0
Lexus 136 143 60 27 58 121 123
Toyota 19,380 13,584 6,377 7,034 8,517 9,927 11,215
sub-total 21,369 14,683 6,625 7,173 8,575 10,048 11,338
Hungary Lexus 87 114 109 136 146 158 178
Toyota 3,365 3,138 2,995 3,585 4,486 5,460 6,289
sub-total 3,452 3,252 3,104 3,721 4,632 5,618 6,467
India Toyota 74,756 136,142 172,368 151,462 184,055 237,684 297,676
Indonesia Daihatsu 118,591 139,545 162,742 178,211 188,661 193,800 202,681
Hino 1,391 1,956 2,471 2,680 2,724 2,931 3,412
Lexus 309 462 612 813 884 1,037 1,109
Toyota 267,743 296,418 404,400 412,086 426,258 455,150 472,576
sub-total 388,034 438,381 570,225 593,790 618,527 652,918 679,778
Ireland Lexus 299 411 264 195 504 846 813
Toyota 12,285 12,863 11,001 9,547 9,671 9,959 11,409
sub-total 12,584 13,274 11,265 9,742 10,175 10,805 12,222
Italy Daihatsu 5,721 3,187 1,416 335 0 0 0
Lexus 889 1,493 1,145 851 1,013 2,116 2,165
Toyota 77,203 68,175 55,789 54,596 61,738 68,280 73,536
sub-total 83,813 72,855 58,350 55,782 62,751 70,396 75,701
Japan Daihatsu 608,511 548,283 675,731 573,936 558,272 531,781 535,746
Hino 9,605 11,790 16,411 11,853 10,502 9,705 9,074
Lexus 33,365 42,383 43,116 57,598 59,089 66,665 84,073
Toyota 1,519,312 1,140,486 1,613,084 1,581,981 1,384,676 1,382,081 1,390,822
sub-total 2,170,793 1,742,942 2,348,342 2,225,368 2,012,539 1,990,232 2,019,715
Kazakhstan Lexus 186 435 953 1,252 1,725 1,957 2,399
Toyota 2,601 4,464 8,226 9,859 15,099 18,627 23,409
sub-total 2,787 4,899 9,179 11,111 16,824 20,584 25,808
Korea Lexus 3,857 4,111 4,976 6,322 7,849 9,972 11,234
Toyota 6,629 5,020 10,795 8,777 11,121 14,391 17,058
sub-total 10,486 9,131 15,771 15,099 18,970 24,363 28,292
Latvia Lexus 126 164 151 158 139 162 186
Toyota 962 1,391 1,496 1,569 1,756 2,212 2,680
sub-total 1,088 1,555 1,647 1,727 1,895 2,374 2,866
Lithuania Lexus 74 91 101 84 84 101 115
Toyota 865 1,182 1,280 1,159 1,132 1,437 1,760
sub-total 939 1,273 1,381 1,243 1,216 1,538 1,875
Luxembourg Lexus 256 212 231 168 226 367 344
Toyota 1,692 1,591 1,700 1,755 1,666 1,686 1,796
sub-total 1,948 1,803 1,931 1,923 1,892 2,053 2,140
Malaysia Daihatsu 2,852 2,101 1,451 1,367 1,426 1,644 1,713
Hino 3,163 3,979 3,647 5,013 5,075 5,681 6,483
Lexus 455 1,711 1,462 1,152 1,168 1,177 1,237
Toyota 91,457 86,942 105,296 86,170 97,766 98,985 101,707
sub-total 97,927 94,733 111,856 93,702 105,435 107,487 111,140
Mexico Toyota 46,769 48,589 57,372 58,550 59,941 65,354 73,235
Netherlands Daihatsu 2,002 1,025 149 1 0 0 0
Lexus 703 2,826 3,919 1,506 2,194 4,900 4,922
Toyota 41,770 36,254 34,230 23,575 28,733 34,569 38,790
sub-total 44,475 40,105 38,298 25,082 30,927 39,469 43,712
Norway Daihatsu 86 32 5 0 0 0 0
Lexus 179 477 500 380 455 801 729
Toyota 21,605 20,054 20,579 20,154 21,857 23,159 24,108
sub-total 21,870 20,563 21,084 20,534 22,312 23,960 24,837
Peru Daihatsu 217 344 692 508 321 344 359
Lexus 1 5 51 136 153 163 174
Toyota 27,036 23,799 31,771 32,502 32,461 35,092 36,383
sub-total 27,254 24,148 32,514 33,146 32,935 35,599 36,916
Philippines Lexus 235 264 372 418 404 423 422
Toyota 56,620 54,329 65,026 72,315 64,582 67,049 66,112
sub-total 56,855 54,593 65,398 72,733 64,986 67,472 66,534
Poland Lexus 558 543 555 475 519 478 526
Toyota 25,662 19,849 20,672 22,203 22,355 26,546 29,303
sub-total 26,220 20,392 21,227 22,678 22,874 27,024 29,829
Portugal Lexus 294 272 88 141 218 300 319
Toyota 14,747 7,874 4,863 5,256 5,446 5,736 6,928
sub-total 15,041 8,146 4,951 5,397 5,664 6,036 7,247
Romania Lexus 27 52 62 37 31 35 38
Toyota 2,542 2,984 2,546 1,910 1,463 1,637 1,975
sub-total 2,569 3,036 2,608 1,947 1,494 1,672 2,013
Russia Lexus 10,978 13,698 15,649 17,658 16,476 18,679 24,345
Toyota 79,313 119,505 153,047 146,374 152,001 149,093 143,607
sub-total 90,291 133,203 168,696 164,032 168,477 167,772 167,952
Slovakia Lexus 99 90 78 74 70 69 85
Toyota 2,888 2,328 2,074 2,533 2,955 3,099 3,170
sub-total 2,987 2,418 2,152 2,607 3,025 3,168 3,255
Slovenia Lexus 27 45 14 21 34 31 30
Toyota 1,862 1,335 1,070 1,280 1,683 1,853 1,899
sub-total 1,889 1,380 1,084 1,301 1,717 1,884 1,929
South Africa Hino 1,540 1,725 3,142 2,664 2,628 2,858 3,024
Lexus 1,401 1,164 1,371 1,042 2,021 1,895 2,553
Toyota 96,622 102,990 151,757 143,707 168,249 189,847 192,503
sub-total 99,563 105,879 156,270 147,413 172,898 194,600 198,080
Spain Lexus 1,686 2,586 2,029 1,876 2,448 3,792 3,914
Toyota 50,170 40,973 37,601 37,826 37,302 38,995 44,269
sub-total 51,856 43,559 39,630 39,702 39,750 42,787 48,183
Sweden Lexus 811 991 735 631 1,046 1,461 1,321
Toyota 23,352 18,598 17,824 17,493 17,556 18,274 18,724
sub-total 24,163 19,589 18,559 18,124 18,602 19,735 20,045
Switzerland Daihatsu 1,973 1,314 864 10 0 0 0
Lexus 865 1,001 1,012 759 1,075 1,624 1,529
Toyota 14,690 14,524 14,238 13,626 14,509 14,207 13,900
Switzerland Toyota 17,528 16,839 16,114 14,395 15,584 15,831 15,429
Taiwan Daihatsu 951 874 909 1,096 1,237 1,316 1,384
Hino 1,019 1,376 2,264 1,839 2,219 2,026 2,042
Lexus 6,693 8,688 11,087 10,029 10,181 10,929 11,349
Toyota 97,896 116,835 115,613 103,986 108,602 117,089 121,894
sub-total 106,559 127,773 129,873 116,950 122,239 131,360 136,669
Thailand Hino 177 136 1,194 1,092 1,269 1,359 1,370
Lexus 337 623 765 692 543 628 669
Toyota 325,623 289,434 515,375 462,311 436,203 451,613 464,760
sub-total 326,137 290,193 517,334 464,095 438,015 453,600 466,799
Turkey Daihatsu 597 377 0 1 0 0 0
Lexus 0 0 0 18 86 87 69
Toyota 40,054 37,995 34,574 34,663 51,349 54,317 54,770
sub-total 40,651 38,372 34,574 34,682 51,435 54,404 54,839
UK Daihatsu 129 1 0 0 0 0 0
Lexus 6,202 8,266 8,402 9,071 12,659 9,158 9,153
Toyota 94,005 81,970 92,310 94,413 87,674 91,948 95,821
sub-total 100,336 90,237 100,712 103,484 100,333 101,106 104,974
Ukraine Daihatsu 190 169 173 59 0 0 0
Lexus 2,239 1,837 1,887 1,286 1,094 1,597 2,431
Toyota 10,688 12,904 15,696 13,735 14,413 15,929 18,143
sub-total 13,117 14,910 17,756 15,080 15,507 17,526 20,574
Uruguay Toyota 1,560 1,376 1,506 1,448 1,571 1,750 1,809
USA Lexus 229,329 198,552 244,162 251,400 264,846 284,072 292,251
Scion 45,678 49,023 53,205 50,276 62,030 65,324 68,682
Toyota 1,488,588 1,397,085 1,785,098 1,944,784 1,948,932 1,965,831 2,008,647
sub-total 1,763,595 1,644,660 2,082,465 2,246,460 2,275,808 2,315,227 2,369,580
Venezuela Daihatsu 942 977 886 991 1,873 2,362 3,011
Toyota 18,375 10,187 16,826 10,891 12,382 15,018 14,754
sub-total 19,317 11,164 17,712 11,882 14,255 17,380 17,765
Source: LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Sales Forecast (October, 2013)"
(Notes) 1. Data indicates figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3. For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

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