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Mexico: Exports to the U.S. Decline, Electrified Vehicles Grow

GlobalData Sales Forecast: Chinese Automakers Gain Share, Trade Policy Remains Concern

2026/06/05

Summary
Exports: Shipments to the U.S. slow amid tariff impacts
Production: Plant restructuring advances amid changes in U.S. exports
Domestic Sales: Growth slows while demand for affordable vehicles increases
Electrified vehicle sales continue to grow, driven by HEVs
GlobalData Sales Forecast: Mexico remains stable at around 1.6 million units as Chinese brands expand market share

Summary

According to MarkLines, exports to the U.S. declined year-over-year in 2025 as OEMs curbed shipments in response to higher U.S. tariffs. Production also decreased as OEMs implemented production adjustments in advance. Meanwhile, export destinations have become increasingly diversified, and in 2026, production and export continue under the higher-tariff environment.

According to GlobalData's sales forecast (Q1 2026), the Mexican light vehicle market is expected to grow slowly at an average annual rate of approximately 1%, then transition into a stable market. Although car ownership rates are low and potential demand exists, the realization of that demand will be slow due to constraints on purchasing power. In addition, while the penetration of Chinese OEMs will provide a short-term boost to sales and bring forward demand, the resulting lengthening in vehicle ownership periods will act as a restraining factor on mid-term sales growth. Chinese automakers already account for more than 10% of the Mexican light vehicle market and are expected to further increase market share in the coming years.

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