Global Top 10 OEMs Production Forecast (Q2 2026)

Global production expects to decrease by 1.2% to 91.97M units in 2026, 92.64M units in 2027

2026/07/31

Summary
Commentary by GlobalData

Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

-According to a report by GlobalData as of Q2 2026, global light vehicle production in 2026 is expected to decrease by 1.2% YoY to 91.97 mn.

-The more entrenched weakness in China’s LV market underpins the bulk of our 1.7 mn and 2.5 mn respective downgrades to the 2026 and 2027 global LV production forecasts, compared with our Q1 2026 report.
-Global overcapacity and competition associated with the electrification transition is fueling geopolitical tensions and, with it, a more protectionist approach to global automotive commerce. Indeed, one consequence from the recent ME oil price surge is an uptick in consumer interest of EVs, which may prompt an increase in more immediate competitive pressures between legacy OEMs and new Chinese manufacturers. Ultimately, this will play an increasing role in vehicle sourcing and trade-flow dynamics as well as longer run manufacturing footprint rationalization and industry consolidation.

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