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User Guide

U.S.: Production Shift Amid BEV Slowdown and HEV Growth

GlobalData Sales Forecast: Around 16 Million Units Despite Weak Demand and Policy Uncertainty

2026/07/31

Summary
GlobalData Sales Forecast: Stable at around 16 million units despite tariffs and slowing BEV demand
Growth continues, but market momentum slows
HEVs drive the xEV Market
Production shift in response to changing demand
Plant restructuring and electrification initiatives accelerate among major OEMs

Summary

According to GlobalData, the U.S. light vehicle market (LV) is expected to face short-term headwinds from tariffs and slowing battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand. However, over the medium to long term, the market is forecast to experience moderate growth driven by a recovery in consumer sentiment, maintaining an annual sales level of approximately 16 million units through 2031.

According to MarkLines, while vehicle electrification continues to grow, BEV demand has slowed while hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have become the primary driver of the electrified vehicle market. In response to changing market demand, Toyota and Hyundai are expanding production, while GM, Ford, Tesla, and Volkswagen are adjusting output. Automakers are continuing to restructure their production systems to balance electrification initiatives with profitability.

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