Mexico light vehicle production and export volumes (Source: MarkLines, based on INEGI data)

  Mexico's vehicle (light vehicle) production for the full year 2024 increased by 5.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 3.99 million units, supported by increased exports to North America and strong domestic demand in Mexico. Both production and exports reached record highs, and the export/production ratio remained close to 90%. However, the situation has been changing since the start of the new U.S. Trump administration.

  Although there is a grace period for the additional 25% tariffs on Mexican products announced by President Trump, the cumulative number of vehicles exported from January to June 2025 has already fallen by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, and the trend to curb automobile production and exports from 2025 onward is becoming increasingly evident.

  By manufacturer, many OEMs, including Mexico's top two automakers, GM and Nissan, expanded their production scale in 2024. All OEMs in Mexico are ramping up production, particularly in the SUV segment, to meet demand in the U.S., the most important export destination.

  In response to the U.S. import tariff policy, automakers have begun to examine the impact and consider possible countermeasures, with some announcing plans to adjust production or transfer production models.

  Until the first half (H1) of 2024, several Chinese manufacturers, following the lead of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. (JAC), which is already producing light vehicles locally, announced investment plans to build production facilities in Mexico to meet domestic demand and Mexico’s potential as an export base. However, the future trend has become uncertain due to rising political tensions between the U.S. and China.

  This report is the second part in our series on Mexico (Part 1 published in April 2025), summarizing the production and export situation of major OEMs and the latest activities of companies in response to the U.S. tariff policy.