China: Vehicle sales forecast to grow over 12% in 2014

Expected sales of 24.2 million units with 20.6 million passenger cars

2014/02/26

Summary

Annual new vehicle sales in China by type  This report summarizes the forecasts and sales plans by various organizations and automakers. According to forecasts by CAAM and other sources, the vehicle sales in China in 2014 (on factory shipment basis including exports but excluding imports) will reach 23.74 million to 24.18 million units with 8 to 10% year-over-year (y/y) growth. (A leading German bank has announced its sales forecast of 23.80 million units).
  The Development Research Center of The State Council, a government-affiliated think-tank, predicts the vehicle sales to be 23.25 million to 23.65 million units with a y/y growth rate of 7 to 9%. The Center is advocating control on automobile purchase for official vehicles and corrective actions to deal with worsening environmental issues as well as social problems such as congestions and shortage of parking spaces (Note 1).

 According to the new vehicle sales plans and forecasts for 2014 published by OEMs operating in China, and based on the MarkLines' independent survey conducted through mid-February 2014, vehicle sales in China are likely to reach 24.2 million units (up 10% from the sales volume in 2013). This is nearly on par with CAAM's forecasts. However, sales plans and forecasts published by passenger car manufacturers report 20.6 million units (up 14.9% from 2013 level) which exceed CAAM's forecast for passenger cars at 19.55 million to 19.91 million units. This is causing a criticism as being overly optimistic.

  On the other hand, sales plans and forecasts in China for 2014 (including import and sales but excluding exports) published by major foreign OEMs have already reached 15.3 million units, up 12.8% from the previous year, as of mid-February 2014. This by far exceeds the CAAM's forecast of 8 to 10% growth of the automobile sales market in China.

Forecasts for automobile sales in China for 2014

Vehicle sales in 2014
(forecasts)
YoY
(forecasts)
China Association of
Automobile Manufactures(CAAM)
Local market
(local demand)
23.85 million-24.29 million units up 7.5-9.5%
Factory shipments 23.74 million-24.18 million units up 8-10%
Development Research Center
of The State Council
23.25 million-23.65 million units up 7-9%

Note 1: A control on automobile purchase in China was introduced in 2014 in major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. It has been reported that the local governments are considering the introduction of such controls  in cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Tsingtao, Wuhan and Dalian, as of February 2014.


Related Reports:
China market 2013: European & Japanese brands contribute to new sales record (Feb. 2014)
Chinese OEM sales outlook 2013 (Mar. 2013)