Outlook of Japanese market in 2014 (Japanese market analysis Part 1)

Abenomics and pre-buying demand before VAT hike encouraged 2013 sales



 The 2013 vehicle sales in Japan exceeded the forecast made by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) at the beginning of the year (4,740,000 units) by 636,000 units to mark 5,376,000 units. The strong sales were supported by an increased consumer spending under the "Abenomics" scheme and last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike (Japanese consumption tax will be raised from the current 5% to 8% in April 2014). JAMA forecasts that the vehicle sales in 2014 will decrease to 4.85 million units, down by 9.8% year-over-year (y/y) due to the tax hike. Therefore, each automaker plans to cope with the anticipated decline by launching new models.
 The leading Toyota's share in Japanese passenger car market decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 30.3% in Japan. Meanwhile Honda and Suzuki increased their shares by 0.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% and 12.2%, respectively, thanks to good sales of mini vehicles. This report specifies 2013 vehicle sales and 2014 outlook, as well as vehicle tax revision in Japan.

Graph 1: Jpn new vehicle sales Graph 2: Share

Related reports:
•2013 Sales by model & engine displacement (Japanese market analysis Part 2)