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User Guide

LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (June 2021)

2021/07/08

Summary
Commentary

Summary

The West European selling rate rose to 11.9 mn units/year in June, continuing the gradual upward trend seen through the first half of this year. However, with an average PV selling rate of 11.0 units/year for H1 2021, there is still plenty of room for improvement.
In the UK, the selling rate remained in better shape, at 2.0 mn units/year. In Spain, the selling rate dropped down to a disappointing 904k units/year. For France, despite last month being the final opportunity to take up government incentives, the selling rate improved only slightly to 1.8 mn units/year. In Germany, while there was an improvement in the selling rate last month, to 2.9 mn units/year, activity is still well below pre‐pandemic norms. Finally, in Italy, the selling rate rose only slightly to 1.6 mn units/year.
Our view remains broadly in line with last month, in that, with the further easing of lockdown measures, and subsequent support from an improving economic backdrop, selling rates should pick up over the second half of this year. However, the easing of restrictions will not mean a sudden return to pre‐pandemic activity — year‐to‐date, West Europe registrations lie 24% below the equivalent 2019 period, indicating that there is some way to go to recovery. Risks lie on the downside, as the semiconductor supply shortage threatens to disrupt the post‐lockdown rebound in demand during the second half of this year, with the chance that some consumers could delay their purchases if their desired model is experiencing supply issues.

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