xEVs and lithium-ion battery trends (1)

Trends at Tesla and demand forecasts for lithium-ion batteries by B3

2017/03/16

Summary

  The 8th International Rechargeable Battery Expo was held from March 1 to March 3, 2017 at Tokyo Big Sight. The expo included an expert seminar that examined the progress of EV development being carried out by automakers, universities, and research institutions, as well as issues, expectations, and the outlook for lithium battery demand. This report will cover the contents of announcements from Tesla, whose Model S placed second in the by model rankings for global EV sales in 2016, as well as demand forecasts and issues related to lithium-ion batteries presented by the Brain of Battery Business (B3) Corporation, an automotive rechargeable battery research company.

  Tesla, which is currently making preparations in anticipation of the scheduled start of production for its Model 3 in July 2017, described the status of its Gigafactory, a facility that will produce 35 GWh worth of batteries annually. Additionally, Tesla announced that it will strive to achieve a reduction of 30% or more in battery costs, and explained its initiative to go to the start of the supply chain to investigate the cost of raw materials for batteries and the procurement status of materials such as lithium, graphite, and cobalt. As EVs are expected to grow in popularity over the next 10 to 15 years, the question of whether issues with battery costs and supply can be overcome has been thrown into sharp relief.

  According to estimates by the B3 Corporation, demand for lithium-ion batteries, including both mobile devices and EVs, will reach 100 GWh in 2017. Globally, ZEV regulations in the U.S. and CO2 regulations in Europe are expected to be factors that will drive EV sales. In order to satisfy regulations, there will have to be 9 million xEVs by 2021, and 16 million by 2026, meaning the amount of lithium-ion batteries needed will be 180 GWh in 2021 and 450 to 500GWh in 2026. This raises many questions about whether such amounts can be supplied globally, how recycling should be carried out, and what level of quality should be aimed for.



Source: Tesla
(Source: Tesla)



Related Reports:

European automaker technology trends: Electric Vehicles (Nov. 2016)

Tesla Motors: Accelerating plans for production of 500,000 vehicles to 2018 (Oct. 2016)



Tesla: Preparing for production of the Model 3 and starting up the Gigafactory

  Director Kurt Kelty of Tesla Energy explained that the first principle at Tesla is to find true material costs. Moreover, the company is currently analyzing costs up to the top of the supply chain for materials used in electrodes such as nickel, cobalt, aluminum, and graphite in order to reduce costs in line with its initiative to lower the cost of EV lithium-ion batteries by 30%. He went on to state that even though Tesla is an OEM, development managers for critical parts are responsible for carrying out such analysis and pushing down costs.

  Moreover, Kelty added that Tesla has secured its supply of battery materials such as lithium hydroxide, graphite, nickel, and cobalt for 2017.

Source:
Tesla
Source: Tesla Source: Tesla
(Source: Tesla) Tesla analyzes the material costs for electrodes up to the top of the supply chain
Source: Tesla Source: Tesla
(Source: Tesla) There are no issues with the supply of materials such as lithium and cobalt.
Tesla THE GIGAFACTORY
(Tesla THE GIGAFACTORY   Photo: Provided by Kurt Kelty)


Demand forecasts for lithium-ion batteries: Estimates by B3 Corporation

  According to estimates by Senior Vice President Takeshi Miyamoto of B3 Corporation, global environmental regulations such as the ZEV regulations in the U.S., CO2 regulations in Europe, and NEV regulations in China will drive EV sales and demand for lithium-ion batteries, which includes those for mobile devices and EVs, will reach 100 GWh in 2017. In order to satisfy global environmental regulations, there will need to be 9 million xEVs by 2021, and 16 million by 2026. When converted this figure into the amount of lithium-ion batteries that will be necessary as a result of this, it is equivalent to 180 GWh in 2021, and 450 to 500 GWh in 2026.



Production facilities for lithium-ion batteries: Can they meet demand for EVs?

  In 2017, demand for lithium-ion batteries for mobile devices will reach 50 GWh, xEVs will reach 31 GWh, and batteries for buses and commuters in China will reach 19 GWh for a total of 100 GWh. Demand for lithium-ion batteries for EVs is expected to meet or exceed demand for mobile devices. Materials provided by B3
Corporation(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)
  In 2016, global sales of BEVs/PHEVs totaled at 721,000 vehicles, with 146,000 sold in the U.S., 201,000 in Europe, 25,000 in Japan, and 336,000 in China. While sales increased only marginally in the U.S. and Europe, China led the market in growth. Materials provided by B3
Corporation(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)
  For automakers to release enough BEVs/PHEVs to satisfy global environmental regulations (set ratio assumptions by B3 Corporation), there will need to be a total of 9 million xEVs (BEVs/PHEVs/HEVs) in 2021, and 16 million in 2026. Materials provided by B3
Corporation(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)
  Furthermore, when this estimate is converted into lithium-ion batteries, there will need to be 180 GWh by 2021, and 450 to 500 GWh by 2026. A simple calculation shows that there will need to be four more battery factories with the same scale as Tesla's Gigafactory (35 GWh) by 2021, and 12 to 13 more by 2026. Materials provided by B3
Corporation(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)


EV lithium battery factory shipments by supplier: Panasonic, BYD, AESC, and LGC

  According to B3 Corporation, in factory shipments of EV lithium batteries by supplier, Panasonic ranked first as of the end of 2016 due to having supplied Tesla with batteries, followed by BYD in second, and AESC in third. In 2017, LGC is making significant gains. Increased production in anticipation of 2021 is a pending issue

Materials provided by B3
Corporation
(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)
Materials provided by B3
Corporation
(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)


Accelerating competition for high-capacity batteries and electrode durability: From 2017 to 2023

  A number of lithium-ion battery suppliers are competing fiercely to improve their batteries for the future.
  According to B3 Corporation, the electrode design on LGC's cells, which are supplied to GM for its Volt and Bolt, is being refined down to the very smallest detail for increased capacity and reduced costs. The competition to improve battery energy density, durability, and cost reduction continues.
Materials
provided by B3 Corporation
(Materials provided by B3 Corporation)



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Keyword:
Tesla, Gigafactory, ZEV, CO2, Model S, Model 3, xEVs, Electric Vehicles, lithium-ion batteries

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