Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 2): Overview of developed nations

European sales bottom out in 2014; U.S. and Japan predict sales growth in 2015

2015/04/21

Summary

先進国の二輪車需要 This is Part 2 report on major motorcycle-producing countries or regions offers actual sales and production results as well as 2015 forecasts for motorcycles in Japan, Europe, and the U.S., which are developed markets. (Click here for Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 1): Overview of emerging nations).

 After the global financial crisis, the motorcycle market continued to shrink more in Europe than it did in other developed markets that experienced significant decreases in motorcycles sales and production. Nevertheless, the Motorcycle Industry in Europe (ACEM) announced that 2014 motorcycle sales in 19 European countries, where sales could be compared year-over-year (y/y), were 1.14 million units, a 2.2% y/y increase. This is an indication that sales of motorcycles had bottomed out. Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. is predicting that the market will be flat in 2015.

 The Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC)based in the U.S. reported that a slight recovery is continuing in the U.S., as 2014 sales increased 3.8% y/y, to 484,000 units. It is also predicting that sales in 2015 will continue to improve.

 In Japan, a total of 450,000 units were sold in 2014, which was a 2.4% y/y decrease. However, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc. (JAMA) is predicting that sales in 2015 will grow slightly, to 457,000 units, which will be a 1.6% y/y increase.

 The 2014 motorcycle production in Japan, the home of the world's major motorcycle makers, increased 6.0% y/y to 597,000 units, the first increase in four years. Nevertheless, this is less than one-tenth the production volume of 1981, when sales peaked. Production in Europe is on a decline.

Related Report: Motorcycle global market analysis (Part 1): Overview of emerging nations (Apr. 2015)



Japan: 2015 motorcycle sales to grow 1.6% y/y to 457,000 units

 2014 motorcycle sales in Japan fell 2.4% y/y to 450,000 units. Even though sales of small-sized motorcycles (251cc and over) increased 7.4% y/y, sales of motorcycles in the 250cc and under decreased. JAMA announced in March 2015 that it predicts 2015 motorcycle sales in Japan will increase 1.6% y/y to 457,000 units.

 In 1981, the peak year of motorcycle production in Japan, more than 7 million units were built. However, production levels have continued to decline ever since then as a result of a shrinking domestic market in Japan and Japanese makers' moving their production offshore. The 2014 motorcycle production in Japan saw a y/y increase for the first time in four years, achieving 597,000 units, a 6.0% y/y increase. The following is a breakdown by maker. Yamaha built the most units (222,000), marking a significant increase of 27.8% y/y. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. built 142,000 units, which was a slight increase y/y. Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. produced 81,000 units with a 10.8% increase y/y. However, production volume at Suzuki Motor Corporation fell 12.9% y/y, to 151,000 units.

 In 2014, exports from Japan, which totaled 466,000 units, improved for the first time in three years. Most exports were to Europe. However, exports from Japan in the peak year of 1981 totaled 4.36 million units, which shows that the number of units exported in 2014 was around 10% of the volume that was exported in 1981.

日本の二輪車販売 日本の二輪車生産

 

Motorcycle Unit Sales in Japan

(units)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Outlooks
Up to 50cc 478,196 458,023 295,908 255,561 231,247 257,045 246,095 238,786 228,918 236,000
51-125cc 82,211 100,720 120,990 65,888 96,368 95,702 90,291 100,947 96,249 97,000
126-250cc 95,247 81,842 71,202 48,127 37,645 38,883 45,306 55,441 54,303 56,000
251cc or over 82,388 81,868 78,041 63,763 58,108 53,362 60,715 65,289 70,151 68,000
Total 738,042 722,453 566,141 433,339 423,368 444,992 442,407 460,463 449,621 457,000
Source:JAMA
(Note) 1. Includes imports. Up to 125cc: shipped volume, 126-250cc: registered number of units, 251cc or over: inspected number of units
2. The 2015 Outlook was announced by JAMA in March 2015.

Japan: Motorcycle Production Volume by Maker and Displacement

(units)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All makers
Total
Up to 50cc 306,246 264,336 162,928 108,417 87,513 104,936 90,886 74,940 76,569
51-125cc 149,868 178,827 128,381 57,424 80,630 64,507 39,569 27,670 31,529
126-250cc 276,043 269,689 192,863 125,384 108,950 104,636 91,925 88,108 93,536
251cc or over 1,039,229 963,245 742,667 353,676 387,082 365,108 373,093 372,591 395,424
Total 1,771,386 1,676,097 1,226,839 644,901 664,175 639,187 595,473 563,309 597,058
Honda Up to 50cc 167,156 129,398 85,155 58,060 46,725 48,067 36,407 21,523 22,128
51-125cc 67,665 77,477 58,878 27,325 44,214 34,919 13,172 922 454
126-250cc 104,422 93,306 58,737 37,191 23,516 23,615 23,653 19,791 17,940
251cc or over 207,175 165,966 134,569 73,603 86,552 94,092 128,882 99,564 101,866
Total 546,418 466,147 337,339 196,179 201,007 200,693 202,114 141,800 142,388
Suzuki Up to 50cc 106,043 106,416 72,044 48,133 36,106 48,099 48,610 46,062 47,642
51-125cc 21,880 25,334 14,762 6,169 9,255 5,594 5,500 5,243 7,903
126-250cc 46,812 44,411 35,517 15,671 16,508 15,424 21,531 24,091 18,629
251cc or over 348,673 324,535 227,281 91,667 105,737 91,083 73,792 97,923 76,811
Total 523,408 500,696 349,604 161,640 167,606 160,200 149,433 173,319 150,985
Yamaha Up to 50cc 32,586 28,178 5,635 2,153 4,606 8,717 4,520 5,742 5,943
51-125cc 43,360 43,877 41,835 15,935 23,791 19,727 17,946 16,079 18,727
126-250cc 85,677 84,762 69,948 31,911 32,986 30,805 32,639 32,311 38,405
251cc or over 290,938 273,502 231,047 113,866 121,351 103,572 110,750 119,786 159,222
Total 452,561 430,319 348,465 163,865 182,734 162,821 165,855 173,918 222,297
Kawasaki Up to 50cc - - - - - - - - -
51-125cc 16,963 32,139 12,906 7,995 3,370 4,267 2,951 5,426 4,445
126-250cc 39,132 47,210 28,661 40,611 35,940 34,792 14,089 11,907 18,562
251cc or over 192,443 199,242 149,770 74,540 73,442 76,361 59,669 55,318 57,525
Total 248,538 278,591 191,337 123,146 112,752 115,420 76,709 72,651 80,532
Others Up to 50cc 461 344 94 71 76 53 1,349 1,613 856
51-125cc 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
126-250cc 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 8 0
251cc or over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 461 344 94 71 76 53 1,362 1,621 856

Source: JAMA

 

Motorcycle Export Volumes from Japan

(units)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asia 64,981 91,528 50,277 52,179 40,791 38,856 23,275 19,362 26,333
Middle East 7,285 7,208 7,695 3,957 3,886 3,774 5,701 3,916 3,682
Europe 465,427 465,328 370,169 211,064 228,072 174,286 163,533 147,965 174,507
North America 642,209 498,044 409,493 182,641 106,251 179,228 184,165 178,283 183,589
Central America 14,865 15,444 13,816 5,280 5,348 5,968 4,770 4,231 6,420
South America 34,520 45,805 49,425 19,771 33,515 40,194 43,437 29,822 20,782
Africa 38,473 38,453 34,008 24,406 25,662 21,103 19,171 15,553 16,888
Pacific 66,266 70,986 67,304 44,581 49,939 41,576 35,111 31,765 33,383
Total 1,334,026 1,232,796 1,002,187 543,879 493,464 504,985 479,163 430,897 465,584
Up to 50cc 57,558 34,192 36,234 14,493 11,522 19,745 17,794 12,560 12,778
51-125cc 124,335 134,570 95,114 44,708 48,976 45,853 35,579 27,676 29,771
126-250cc 183,980 177,673 149,530 101,298 85,506 83,594 69,963 64,566 63,891
251cc or over 968,153 886,361 721,309 383,380 347,460 355,793 355,827 326,095 359,144

Source: JAMA

 

 



Europe: 2014 sales bottom out, increasing in Spain,UK and Germany

欧州主要国の二輪車販売 According to a 2014 flash report announced by the ACEM, the total number of motorcycles sold in 19 European countries where sales could be compared y/y was 1.14 million units. This total was a 2.2% increase y/y and the first y/y increase in eight years. Motorcycle sales in Spain increased 16.8% y/y to 126,000 units, sales in the U.K. increased 11.4% y/y to 102,000 units, and sales in Germany increased 2.8% y/y to 176,000 units.

 The 2014 highest-selling model in all of Europe continued to be BMW's R1200GS, which was the highest selling model in 2013 too. A total of 18,013 units were sold. Other top-selling motorcycles included the Yamaha MT07 (13,125 units) and the Peugeot KISBEE 50 (12,561 units).

 As for motorcycle production, Italy is the country which produces most motorcycles in Europe. The number of units built in Italy was 317,000 units. This was a 4.1% decrease y/y and the 7th consecutive y/y decline. Unit production in Germany, which builds the second highest number of units in Europe, decreased 3.2% y/y to 110,000 units. Nevertheless, a pattern of significant improvement is being seen in Germany in terms of production volume.

Motorcycle Unit Sales by Country in Europe

(units)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Preliminary
figures
Austria 54,681 55,450 49,307 47,169 46,729 45,903 42,923 40,347
Belgium 51,577 46,013 42,563 37,973 37,172 33,814 29,468 31,617
Bulgaria n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 349 400 n.a.
Cyprus 5,457 6,190 4,821 3,517 2,974 2,338 1,882 n.a.
Czech Republic 16,106 15,348 11,541 8,271 8,198 9,317 n.a. 14,247
Germany 261,098 245,841 211,699 187,320 184,358 178,087 170,965 175,826
Denmark 14,295 10,362 21,851 19,804 14,146 12,796 10,031 9,545
Estonia 7,375 6,893 285 260 302 999 1,054 n.a.
Greece 122,357 125,128 88,151 78,496 62,042 45,081 37,136 n.a.
Spain 395,341 294,163 176,467 168,484 142,683 116,642 108,094 126,270
Finland 38,981 34,320 27,435 23,951 22,952 17,533 12,203 10,705
France 448,417 427,907 370,588 343,326 332,224 296,845 253,969 251,502
Croatia 27,148 28,596 15,287 9,293 8,078 6,447 5,165 n.a.
Hungary 12,781 12,285 4,169 2,453 2,091 1,957 1,778 n.a.
Ireland 3,523 3,194 1,674 1,219 1,032 844 610 501
Italy 566,655 531,359 509,150 396,493 330,271 258,008 187,516 184,801
Lithuania 4,420 11,026 7,389 1,424 1,601 1,193 1,228 1,219
Luxembourg 2,021 2,030 1,993 1,957 2,190 2,177 2,642 2,742
Latvia 5,919 5,298 1,128 1,264 1,815 2,148 2,033 1,801
Macedonia 4,437 8,626 9,097 7,761 3,633 3,393 0 n.a.
Malta 532 699 608 568 746 812 n.a. n.a.
Netherlands 73,664 86,555 110,684 103,489 93,788 79,110 68,923 73,620
Poland 99,487 146,690 103,276 80,903 78,217 67,749 56,143 50,563
Portugal 19,877 17,998 19,079 23,542 22,730 20,369 16,961 17,652
Romania 4,779 6,961 440 2,992 3,531 2,045 n.a.
Sweden 62,567 51,571 31,921 22,277 8,225 7,608 7,801 n.a.
Slovakia 6,161 5,755 4,407 4,156 3,560 3,432 3,355 n.a.
Slovenia 10,796 11,156 8,361 6,132 5,594 4,720 5,290 3,940
Turkey 191,897 189,572 83,647 111,341 193,606 176,873 164,132 n.a.
United Kingdom 144,425 139,427 111,040 95,596 93,610 93,451 91,681 102,120
Total EU 2,656,774 2,526,413 2,027,618 1,788,879 1,707,559 1,493,526 1,285,428 n.a.
Switzerland 50,595 51,760 43,543 41,603 46,611 47,884 45,774 46,040
Iceland n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Liechtenstein n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Norway 20,125 21,575 12,692 11,723 12,188 12,940 11,520 11,511
Total EFTA 70,720 73,335 56,235 53,326 58,799 60,824 57,294 57,551
Total Europe 2,727,494 2,599,748 2,083,853 1,842,205 1,766,358 1,554,350 1,342,722 n.a.

Source: Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles

Top 10 Best-Selling Model in EU

2013 2014
Brand Model Displacement Units Sold Brand Model Displacement Units Sold
1 BMW R1200GS 1001-9999cc 21,151 BMW R1200GS 1001-9999cc 18,013
2 PEUGEOT KISBEE 50 2-50cc 10,971 YAMAHA MT07 501-750cc 13,125
3 VESPA LX 50 2-50cc 10,739 PEUGEOT KISBEE 50 2-50cc 12,561
4 YAMAHA XMAX 125 51-125cc 10,524 HONDA SH150AD 126-250cc 8,754
5 YAMAHA XP500 TMAX
(530cc)
251-500cc 10,502 YAMAHA XP500 TMAX
(530cc)
251-500cc 7,846
6 HONDA SH150 126-250cc 10,357 YAMAHA MT09 751-1000cc 7,562
7 ROMET GY 50 2-50cc 9,257 PIAGGIO ZIP 50 2T (Cina) 2-50cc 7,161
8 HONDA SH300/A 251-500cc 9,086 BMW R1200RT 1001-9999cc 6,625
9 KYMCO AGILITY 50 2-50cc 7,800 HONDA SH300 251-500cc 6,281
10 PIAGGIO ZIP 50
2T (Cina)
2-50cc 7,607 KAWASAKI Z800 751-1000cc 6,235

Source: Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles
(Note) This table was created based on data about all countries in the European Union, with the exception of the Czech Republic, Rumania, Slovakia, and Hungary in 2013; and Bulgaria, Cyrus, Hungary, Malta, and Slovakia in 2014.

Motorcycle Production Volume by Country

(units)
Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Preliminary
figures
Austria 59,986 69,045 78,269 79,176 51,366 39,909 48,710 76,575 n.a.
Czech Republic 1,607 1,015 2,140 1,551 749 782 1,155 2,319 n.a.
Germany 100,952 106,340 105,522 105,672 82,438 99,244 110,084 101,690 110,127
Spain 249,472 253,710 245,403 115,734 115,602 123,123 95,399 44,019 n.a.
France 259,200 232,427 215,453 172,526 109,705 92,900 74,359 56,963 n.a.
Italy 695,000 708,550 692,500 641,000 477,000 455,176 414,000 330,000 316,589
Portugal 61 65 44 33 n.a. 0 0 0 n.a.
Sweden 447 533 550 0 0 0 0 0 n.a.
United Kingdom 34,582 42,078 32,371 33,923 22,658 23,455 23,886 20,590 n.a.
Total 1,401,307 1,413,763 1,372,252 1,149,615 859,518 834,589 767,593 632,156 426,716

Source: Association des Constructeurs Europeens de Motocycles, ASSOCIAZIONE NAZIONALE CICLO MOTOCICLO E ACCESSORI, BMW

 

 



U.S.: 2014 sales increase 3.8% y/y to 484,000 units

米国の二輪車販売 According to the MIC, in 2014, 484,000 motorcycles were sold in the U.S., which was a 3.8% increase y/y. It should be noted that in only a period of two years, from 2008 to 2010, sales plummeted by half, from 880,000 units to 440,000 units. Nevertheless, ever since then sales have been gradually recovering

Motorcycle Sales Volume in the U.S.

(units)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DUAL 45,250 27,210 23,351 26,483 30,592 33,296 34,497
OFF-HWY 146,779 105,103 80,962 70,046 69,395 73,058 81,013
ON-HWY 611,133 357,691 306,702 312,520 318,206 324,684 334,488
SCOOTER 76,748 31,451 28,483 31,850 41,105 34,742 33,528
TOTAL 879,910 520,502 439,678 440,899 459,298 465,783 483,526

Source: Motorcycle Industry Council
(Note): The Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC) is a national trade association based in the U.S., representing global motorcycle manufacturers. The unit sales figures announced by the MIC represent the total number of units sold by member companies, accounting for over 75% of the US motorcycle market.

 

 



Reference: Global Motorcycle Demand and Production Volumes

Global Motorcycle Demand (estimated by Yamaha)

(in thousands of units)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Forecasts
Japan 723 567 434 424 445 442 460 450 457
North America 1,288 1,224 585 497 490 502 520 539 580
Europe 2,706 2,683 2,116 2,040 1,976 1,744 1,649 1,515 1,513
  Indonesia 5,000 6,443 5,692 7,236 8,001 7,064 7,744 7,686 7,600
  Thailand 1,572 1,703 1,536 1,846 2,007 2,129 2,004 1,696 1,900
  India 7,300 7,325 8,638 11,270 13,078 13,806 14,343 15,996 17,000
  Vietnam 2,703 2,710 2,745 3,070 3,562 3,109 2,793 2,711 2,613
  Taiwan 738 815 601 526 644 628 668 666 650
  China 16,119 16,215 17,420 16,090 14,034 12,630 11,627 10,655 9,764
  Other Asia 2,289 2,483 2,809 3,417 4,204 4,537 4,365 4,395 4,627
Asia Total 35,720 37,694 39,440 43,455 45,529 43,903 43,544 43,805 44,154
  Brazil 1,690 1,913 1,602 1,801 1,938 1,654 1,515 1,430 1,375
  Other 4,477 5,427 5,206 5,978 6,974 7,244 7,989 7,931 8,317
Other Total 6,167 7,341 6,809 7,779 8,911 8,897 9,504 9,360 9,692
Total demand 46,604 49,509 49,384 54,195 57,351 55,490 55,678 55,669 56,396

Source: Created by MarkLines based on Yamaha Motor's financial result reports.

 

Motorcycle Production Volumes in Major Countries

(units)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China 23,592,594 24,476,418 24,654,624 21,316,197 20,467,563 18,907,700
India (Note1) 10,512,889 13,349,349 15,427,532 15,744,156 16,879,891 17,042,863
Indonesia 5,884,021 7,395,390 8,006,293 7,079,721 7,736,295 7,926,104
Vietnam 3,091,500 3,506,600 4,070,200 3,634,500 3,682,500 n.a.
Thailand 1,634,113 2,024,599 2,043,039 2,606,161 2,218,625 1,842,708
Brazil 1,539,473 1,830,614 2,136,891 1,690,187 1,673,477 1,517,662
Taiwan 1,020,124 1,031,997 1,207,428 1,086,084 1,115,223 1,175,259
Pakistan (Note 2) 736,861 838,665 828,576 819,556 771,507 n.a.
Philippines 679,497 813,361 762,947 588,458 729,690 754,125
Europe (Note 3) 859,518 834,589 767,593 644,277 426,716 n.a.
Japan 644,901 664,175 639,187 595,473 563,309 597,058
Malaysia 436,430 467,941 498,076 543,088 549,244 440,157
Total 50,631,921 57,233,698 61,042,386 56,347,858 56,814,040 n.a.
Source: Created by MarkLines based on statistics data from automobile or motorcycle associations in each country
Note 1. The data in India is on a fiscal year basis that starts in April and ends in March. The 2014 data refers to the production volume between April 2014 to February 2015.
2. The data in Pakistan is on a fiscal year basis that starts in July and ends in June. (Ex: The 2013 data refers to the production volume between July 2013 to June 2014. The data in Pakistan includes tricycles.
3. The data in Europe is the total data of 7 countries: Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and UK. The 2013 data is a provisional data based on the figures released by Italy and Germany.

<Automotive Industry Portal MarkLines>