China: Vehicle sales forecast to grow over 12% in 2014

Expected sales of 24.2 million units with 20.6 million passenger cars

2014/02/26

Summary

Annual new vehicle sales in China by type  This report summarizes the forecasts and sales plans by various organizations and automakers. According to forecasts by CAAM and other sources, the vehicle sales in China in 2014 (on factory shipment basis including exports but excluding imports) will reach 23.74 million to 24.18 million units with 8 to 10% year-over-year (y/y) growth. (A leading German bank has announced its sales forecast of 23.80 million units).
  The Development Research Center of The State Council, a government-affiliated think-tank, predicts the vehicle sales to be 23.25 million to 23.65 million units with a y/y growth rate of 7 to 9%. The Center is advocating control on automobile purchase for official vehicles and corrective actions to deal with worsening environmental issues as well as social problems such as congestions and shortage of parking spaces (Note 1).

 According to the new vehicle sales plans and forecasts for 2014 published by OEMs operating in China, and based on the MarkLines' independent survey conducted through mid-February 2014, vehicle sales in China are likely to reach 24.2 million units (up 10% from the sales volume in 2013). This is nearly on par with CAAM's forecasts. However, sales plans and forecasts published by passenger car manufacturers report 20.6 million units (up 14.9% from 2013 level) which exceed CAAM's forecast for passenger cars at 19.55 million to 19.91 million units. This is causing a criticism as being overly optimistic.

  On the other hand, sales plans and forecasts in China for 2014 (including import and sales but excluding exports) published by major foreign OEMs have already reached 15.3 million units, up 12.8% from the previous year, as of mid-February 2014. This by far exceeds the CAAM's forecast of 8 to 10% growth of the automobile sales market in China.

Forecasts for automobile sales in China for 2014

Vehicle sales in 2014
(forecasts)
YoY
(forecasts)
China Association of
Automobile Manufactures(CAAM)
Local market
(local demand)
23.85 million-24.29 million units up 7.5-9.5%
Factory shipments 23.74 million-24.18 million units up 8-10%
Development Research Center
of The State Council
23.25 million-23.65 million units up 7-9%

Note 1: A control on automobile purchase in China was introduced in 2014 in major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. It has been reported that the local governments are considering the introduction of such controls  in cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Tsingtao, Wuhan and Dalian, as of February 2014.


Related Reports:
China market 2013: European & Japanese brands contribute to new sales record (Feb. 2014)
Chinese OEM sales outlook 2013 (Mar. 2013)



CAAM's forecasts by type for 2014: passenger car sales to increase 9 to 11%

 A prediction of 8 to 10% growth was found in many new vehicle sales forecasts for China in 2014 announced by CAAM, automotive industrial organizations and major OEMs in China.

 In terms of forecasts by vehicle type, passenger car sales are estimated at 19.55 to 19.91 million units, up 9 to 11% y/y. The largest growth is expected for SUV with y/y growth of 29 to 31% to 3.85 to 3.92 million units. MPV sales are expected to be 1.55 to 1.58 million units, up 19 to 21%.

 Commercial vehicle sales are expected to increase at 3.3 to 5.3% to 4.19 to 4.27 million units. These figures include sales forecasts for buses (including chassis) at 590,000 to 610,000 units with a growth of 5.6 to 9.1%, a higher rate than the 3 to 4.7% growth forecast for trucks (including chassis).

 

New vehicle sales in China by vehicle type (including exports)

New vehicle sales  
(Of which) Export volume

2012 2013 2014
(forecast)
2012 2013
Volume
(1,000 units)
Volume
(1,000 units)
YoY Volume
(1,000 units)
YoY Volume
(1,000 units)
YoY
■Passenger car total 15,495 17,929 15.7% 19,550-19,910 9-11% 661 596 -9.8%
Sedan and hatchback (2/3 box) 10,745 12,010 11.8% 12,700-12,940 5.7-7.7% 479 397 -17.2%
SUV 2,000 2,989 49.4% 3,850-3,920 29-31% 129 136 5.7%
MPV 493 1,305 164.5% 1,550-1,580 19-21% 5 6 17.1%
Minivan 2,257 1,625 -28.0% 1,450-1,470 -11--9.6% 48 57 19.0%
■Commercial vehicle total 3,811 4,055 6.4% 4,190-4,270 3.3-5.3% 395 381 -3.5%
Chassis (included) 542 589 8.7% - - 18 23 25.9%
Truck
(including chassis)
3,304 3,496 5.8% 3,600-3,660 3-4.7% 340 299 -12.2%
Semi Trailer 191 263 38.2% - - 27 21 -23.8%
Heavy-duty truck 445 511 14.7% 313 278 -11.2%
Medium-duty truck 290 287 -1.2%
Light-duty truck 1,843 1,908 3.6%
Mini truck 535 527 -1.5%
Bus
(including chassis)
507 559 10.2% 590-610 5.6-9.1% 55 62 12.1%
Large bus 79 82 3.1% - - 55 62 12.1%
Medium bus 91 89 -1.2%
Light bus 338 388 14.9%
Grand total 19,306 21,984 13.9% 23,740-24,180 8-10% 1,056 977 -7.5%

Note: The 2014 (forecasts) for new vehicle sales by vehicle type are those announced by CAAM.

 

China's auto import and export in 2014: Export to increase 5%, import to remain unchanged

 According to CAAM's forecast for China's automobile export and import in 2014, exports will increase by 5% y/y to 1.03 million units. Imports are expected to remain at the same level as in 2013 at 1.14 million units (1.17 million units at 7.3% y/y growth from 2012 level). It has been reported that China's import demand will increase by 7% from the previous year.


 China's auto export topped one million units mark for the first time in 2012. But it dropped to 977,000 units in 2013 largely due to the sluggish economy in China's major export destinations such as Algeria, Iraq and Brazil.

 China's auto import seems to be shifting to smaller vehicles powered by smaller engines. The share of the auto imports powered by 3.0-liter or smaller engines among all auto imports in 2013 increased from 84.8% in 2013 to 87.4% in 2014. Among them, the share of those with 1.5- to 2.0-liter engines rose 4.3 points from the previous year to 33.6%.

 

Used vehicle sales: Expected to increase to 10 million units in or after 2015

 The used car sales (transactions) in China increased 8.6% to 5.5 million units in 2013. The figure is expected to increase to 10 million units in 2016, if not in 2014, and further to 20 million units in 2020. It has been reported that CAAM is predicting the used car market in China to expand to 10 million units in 2014 or 2015 at the latest.

 

 



Chinese automotive groups' sales plans: to grow over 12% in 2014

 Chinese automotive groups that accounted for 98.14% of automobile sales in China in 2013 have announced their vehicle sales plans (including forecasts) for 2014. Their figures already exceeded 24.2 million units as of February 17, 2014, representing a 12.2% growth, 2 point increase over the results in 2013 (group total of 21.57 million units). These groups' sales plans and forecasts seem more optimistic than CAAM's forecasts for 8 to 10% growth.

Automotive groups in China: Vehicle sales results and plans/forecasts by OEM

OEM 2013
(results)
2014
(target or forecast)
■SAIC Motor Group


*Over 5.07 million units incl. export of over 110,000 units (up 10%)
*Over 5.64 million units incl. export of 150,000 units
Shanghai VW 1.53 million units 1.68 million units
Shanghai GM 1.58 million units (1.54 million units excluding imports) Over 1.6 million units, 1.77 million units max.
SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Co., 268,000 units (incl. exports) 265,000 to 280,000 units (incl. exports of 15,000 units)
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile *Over 1.6 million units
(Of which Baojun-brand:100,000, Wuling-brand:1.5 million)
*1.8 million units
(Of which Baojun-brand: 200,000, Wuling-brand: 1.6 million)
SAIC Motor Commercial Vehicle *11,000 units *24,000 units
Shanghai Sunwin Bus(large bus) *3,800 units *5,000 units
Nanjing Iveco Over *120,000 units *170,000 units
SAIC Iveco Hongyan (Heavy-duty truck) *28,000 units and 4.3% share *32,000 units
■Dongfeng Motor Corporation
(ExcludingFujian Motor)
*3.54 million units
  (Of which passenger cars: 2.902 
   million including 1.27 million units under Dongfeng's own brands [passenger cars: 656,000 + commercial vehicles:*615,000]
*3.8 million units, *4 million units max.
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle 926,000 units 1.04 million units
Dongfeng Honda Automobile 321,000 units 350,000 units
Dongfeng Yulon Motor 33,000 units 36,000-45,000 units
Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen 550,000 units 695,000 units
Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia Motors 547,000 units (up 13.8%) 650,000 units
Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle Co. 80,000 units 80,000-100,000 units
Dongfeng Yu'an Vehicle *281,000 units *320,000 units
Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor



*228,000 units
(Of which passenger cars: over 180,000 units)
*275,000-*295,000 units
(Of which passenger cars: 230,000-250,000 units, commercial vehicles: *45,000-*49,000 units)
Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle *181,000 units
  ) *163,000 units medium- and heavy-duty truck
*N/A
  Incl. *157,000 units medium- and heavy-duty truck
Dongfeng Automobile
(excluding Shandong Kaima)
*272,000 units
  (Of which headquarters : *154,000 units, Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile : *118,000 units (incl. foreign sales of 10,025 units, up 19.2%)
*308,000 units
  (Of which Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile : *130,000 units [incl. passenger cars: 100,000 units] )
■China FAW Group *2.91 million units Over *3.4 million units
FAW-VW 1.54 million units
( incl. import of 1.61 million units)
1.7 million units
FAW Toyota Motor Sales 560,000 units 660,000 units
FAW Car 248,000 units 300,000 units
Tianjin FAW Xiali Automobile 129,000 units 130,000 units
FAW Haima Motor
(Haima Motor Group)
108,000 units
(*173,000 units)
N/A
(over *200,000 units)
FAW Jiefang Automotive *188,000 units *198,000 units
 (Of which medium-duty truck: *180,000 units with 18% market share, 
 light-duty truck: *18,000 unit with  0.8% market share)
FAW-GM Light Duty Commercial Vehicle *60,400 units, up 7.12%
  incl. sales in China 59,000 units, up 6.3%
*68,000 units
FAW Jilin Automobile *79,968 units *150,000 units
■Changan Automobile Group Over *2.2 million units *2.33 million units
own brand Passenger car total: N/A
  Of which: sedan and hatchback 380,000 units (up 71%)
Passenger car: 600,000 units (excluding minivans)
Of which Changhe Suzuki and Changhe Automobile:170,000 units
Changan PSA (DS series) 2,600 units 20,000 units
Changan Mazda Automobile 67,000 units (incl. import) 100,000 units (incl. import)
Changan Ford Automobile 682,700 units 790,000 units
■BAIC Motor Group Over *2.11 million units
 Of which passenger cars under own brands: 200,200  (breakdown-E series 2/3 Box: 60,000 units, Senova: 10,000 units, Weiwang: 130,200 units)
*2.6 million units, Max.*2.78 million units
  incl. 370,000 passenger cars under own brands
Beijing Hyundai Motor 1.03 million units 1.08 million units, 1.1 million units max.
(incl. 200,000 units of the 8th-generation Sonata (Mistra))
BAIC Motor *N/A
  incl. 200,000 passenger cars under own brands
*1.68 million units max.
  (Of which own brand models: 370,000 units, incl. 8,000 units of BJ40 passenger cars)
Baiqi Foton Motor *total: N/A
  (*Of which commercial vehicles: 665,000 units )
    Of which Foton Ollin light-duty trucks: over 90,000 units,
    Auman heavy-duty trucks: 120,000 units
*Total: N/A
 Of which  Foton Ollin light-duty trucks: over 100,000 units,  Auman heavy-duty trucks: 115,000 units
Changhe Automobile (Changhe Suzuki Automobile) *108,000 units *170,000 units
■GAC Automobile Group *1 million units Over *1.15 million units
Guangqi Honda Automobile 435,000 units, up 37.6% Over 500,000 units
GAC Toyota Motor 303,000 units 360,000 units, up 20%
GAC Fiat 48,000 units 100,000 units (only Fiat brand)
GAC Mitsubishi Motors 43,000 units 75,000 units
GAC Passenger CarChumpchi series 85,000 units 115,000-135,000 units
  incl. export: 5,000 units
GAC Gonow Automobile 16,000 units N/A
Changfeng series 24,000 units
■Brilliance Auto Group *777,000 units *900,000 units
■Great Wall Motor *754,000 units *880,000 units, up 16.7%
■Geely Holding Group 549,000 units
  incl. export: 120,000 units
580,000-600,000 units
■Jianghuai Automobile (JAC) *510,000 units *N/A
Passenger car 200,000 units, up 1.58% 219,000-242,000 units
Commercial vehicle *310,000 units
incl. heavy-duty truck: 33,000 units
N/A
■BYD Auto 507,000 units, up 11%
555,000 units, up 10%
■Chery Automobile 469,000 units
  incl. commercial vehicle of Karry brand, the high-end light-duty truck: 1,247 units
562,800 units, up 20%
Incl. commercial vehicle of Karry brand: 6,000 units
■Lifan Industry (Group) *248,000 units
  Of which passenger car: 121,000 units
*N/A
  Of which passenger car: 200,000 units
■Fujian Motor Industry *217,000 units *N/A
Fujian Benz Motor 11,000 units 10,500 units
Soueast Motor *206,000 units *N/A
  incl. passenger car 135,000 units
■China Heavy Duty Truck Group *165,000 units *200,000 units
Heavy-duty truck *120,000 units *140,000 units
Medium-duty truck *37,000 units *40,000 units
(light vehicle division) *8,000 units *20,000 units
■Zotye Holding Group 134,000 units N/A
■Shaanxi Automobile Group *105,000 units (total of trucks for civil and non-civil use)* Of which heavy-duty trucks for consumer use: 75,000 units of *120,000 units (total of trucks for civil and non-civil use), Of which heavy-duty trucks for civil use: * 96,500 units
 LNG-fueled heavy-duty trucks: 12,000 units with 50% market share
■Qingling Automobile Group *87,000 units *N/A
■Young Man Automobile Group *73,000 units *N/A
■Haima (Zhengzhou) Automobile
(Haima Commercial Vehicle/Haima Car)
*68,000 units
The group total: *175,400 units
*N/A
The group total: over *200,000 units
■Zhongxing Automobile 64,000 units N/A
■Hualing Xingma Automobile (Group) Heavy-duty truck: *25,000 units, up 52.9%
 ( Of which export: *2,580 units)
Heavy-duty truck: *30,000 units
  (Of which export: *3,000 units)
■Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck Group *17,000 units *25,000 units (of which 22,000 units for domestic market)
 incl. tow trucks: *6,800 units,
        dump trucks:*8,800 units
       CNG-fueled trucks: *2,400 units
■C&C Trucks heavy-duty trucks: *5,019 units with 120% growth
 (Of which LNG-fueled trucks:*11,000 units)
heavy-duty trucks :*10,000 units     (Of which LNG-fueled trucks: *6,000 units )
Total (the above-mentioned OEM Group) Over *21.57 million units Over *24.2 million units
Grand total of China OEM (passenger car, commercial vehicle and commercial chassis) *21.98 million units *23.74 million-*24.18 million units

Note: The "%" notation under "2013 (results)" and "2014 (target/forecast)"indicates year-over-year increase/decrease.
* Commercial vehicles are included in the above and all other tables below.

 

 



Passenger car sales plans and forecasts by OEM in China: to exceed 20.5 million units

 According to MarkLines' independent survey as of mid-February 2014, all Chinese OEMs have announced their passenger car sales plans and forecasts by brand for 2014. Their figures amount to over 20.5 million units with a year-over-year growth of 14.7% from 2013, far higher than the CAAM's growth forecast of 9 to 11%.

 SAIC's sales plans outnumber all other OEMs with a y/y growth of 5.2% to nearly 5 million units. Next in lines are Dongfeng Motor Company (excluding Fujian Motor) with 20.3% growth target to approx. 3.49 million units, and FAW Group (including HAIMA) aiming for 13.9% growth to over 3 million units. These top three OEM groups each has a sales target over 3 million units.

 Several other OEMs also have two-digit growth targets: Changan Automobile Group (up 41%), BAIC Motor Group (up 14.6%), GAC Automobile Group (up 17.4%), Great Wall Motor (up 40.3%), Chery Automobile (up 23.4%), Lifan Motor (up 16%), and Fujian Motor (up 13.4%).

 Some have modest sales targets: Geely Holding Group excl. Volvo Car (up 5.6%), BYD (up 9.6%), Brilliance Auto Group (unchanged from the previous year) and Jianghuai Automobile Group (up 7.7%).

 

China passenger car sales results and plans by OEM

OEM Brand Sales volume
(factory shipment basis)
Volume
(unit)
Plan
(1,000 units)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SAIC Motor Corp. 3,309,418 3,731,455 4,166,443 4,723,261 Over 4,970
Shanghai GM 1,012,057 1,185,585 1,363,532 1,542,558 1,600-1,770
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile 1,135,604 1,217,882 1,322,585 1,425,566 *1,800
Chevrolet 77,800 70,258 29,985 - -
Baojun - 21,854 80,323 100,500 200
Wuling 1,057,804 1,125,770 1,212,277 1,325,066 *1,600
Shanghai VW 1,001,357 1,165,827 1,280,008 1,525,008 1,680-1,750
SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Co. 160,400 162,161 200,318 230,129 265-280
Dongfeng Motor Corp. 1,977,317 2,329,039 2,455,231 2,901,502 約3,490
Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Automobile 373,366 404,139 440,028 550,007 650
Max.695
Citroen 224,001 230,002 223,801 280,001 305
Max.350
Peugeot 149,365 174,137 216,227 270,006 345
Dongfeng Honda Automobile 260,600 255,468 282,171 321,409 350
Dongfeng-yueda-Kia Motors (Kia brand only) 333,028 432,518 480,443 546,766 650
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle 660,999 808,588 772,995 926,229 1,060
Nissan 660,999 808,588 731,190 820,588 902
Venucia - - 41,805 105,641 158
Dongfeng Automobile 45,197 51,509 48,795 60,540 *308
Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile 45,197 51,509 47,603 55,291 100
Dongfeng Yu'an Vehicle Dongfeng Xiaokang 226,198 243,053 202,991 205,019 320
Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Future 50,245 100,678 136,501 180,189 230
Max.250
Dongfeng Passenger Car Fengshen 27,684 26,028 60,201 80,077 80-100
Dongfeng Yulon Motor Luxgen - 7,058 31,106 31,266 36-45
China FAW Group 2,159,178 2,314,173 2,413,455 2,633,417 Over 3,000
FAW-VW 869,979 1,034,888 1,328,888 1,512,887 1,700
Tianjin FAW Toyota, Sichuan FAW Toyota 511,038 531,928 496,519 555,780 660
FAW Car 270,944 241,362 184,212 247,594 300
Besturn 132,212 112,816 72,452 121,254 Less than 162
Hongqi 193 2 127 2,981
Oley - - 6,545 6,300
Mazda 138,539

128,544

105,088

117,059

138
(incl. import)
FAW Jilin Automobile FAW 119,294 103,645 90,942 79,968 *150
Tianjin FAW Xiali Automobile 245,253 250,153 183,976 129,392 130
FAW Hainan Motor Haima 140,332


151,716


128,747


107,758


             N/A
(Total 200 including Haima (Zhengzhou) Automobile)
FAW-GM Light Duty Commercial Vehicle FAW 1,270 165 94 8 *68
Tianqi Group Meiya Automobile Meiya 1,068 316 77 30 N/A
Changan Automobile Group 1,843,991 1,576,033 1,596,937 1,823,024 Over 2,570
Changan Automobile Changan/Chana 917,472 714,239 750,579 822,244 N/A
Chang PSA Citroen DS - - - 2,552 20
Changan Ford Automobile 321,195 335,541 425,954 682,686 790
Ford 304,104 320,657 418,501 678,951 784
Volvo 17,091 14,884 7,453 3,735 6
Changan Mazda Mazda 90,298 83,059 67,644 67,239 100
Changan Suzuki Suzuki 200,013 220,008 170,037 147,508 (Integrated into  BAIC Motor Group)
Changhe Automobile Suzuki, joint venture brand 75,323

77,127

83,434

38,185

Changhe Automobile,
Changhe Suzuki
Changhe,
Suzuki
139,006

119,958

113,465

48,345

Jiangling Motor Holding Jiangling, Landwind 17,319 24,810 24,764 36,356 N/A
Hafei Motor Hafei 158,688 78,418 44,494 16,094 N/A
BAIC Motor Group 768,115 846,787 1,037,632 1,422,550 Over 1,630
Beijing Hyundai Motor Hyundai, Shouwang 703,008 739,800 859,595 1,030,808 1,080-1,100
Beijing Benz Mercedes-Benz 38,856 77,795 93,664 116,006 136
BAIC Motor Weiwang - 10,016 46,368 121,642 370
(2012 sales result: 230)
BAIC Yinxiang Automobile Weiwang - - - 15,373
Beiqi Foton Motor Foton 13,224 8,109 7,189 8,094
BAIC Motor Senova - - - 10,032
BAIC - - 20,652 61,763
Beijing Automobile Works Beiqi 13,027 11,067 10,164 8,513
Changhe Automobile (incl. minivans of Changhe Suzuki) Changhe, Suzuki - - - 4,595
Changhe Suzuki Automobile Suzuki,
joint venture brand
- - - 45,724 N/A
GAC Group
(Guangzhou Automobile Group)
719,517 721,095 680,027 979,461 Over 1,150
GAC Fiat 0 0 11,288 48,375 Over 100
Fiat - - 11,288 48,375 100
Jeep - - - - N/A
GAC Toyota Motor Toyota 269,429 274,417 250,088 303,088 360
Guangqi Honda Automobile 411,040 386,543 345,439 459,577 Over 500
GAC Mitsubishi Mitsubishi 10,130 7,866 6,734 43,036 75
GAC Passenger Car Trumpchi 0 17,006 32,611 84,602 120
Changfeng series Liebao 28,918 23,330 21,841 24,398 N/A
GAC Gonow GAC Gonow 0 11,933 12,026 16,385 N/A
Great Wall Motor total 294,181 365,075 487,370 627,434 880
Geely Holding Group 416,168 432,752 491,444 549,393 580-600
BYD Auto BYD 519,806 448,484 456,056 506,190 555
Brilliance Auto Group 272,413 294,131 374,980 476,704 *900
BMW Brilliance Automotive BMW 53,963

95,444

147,374

207,430

             N/A
(Total 400 including imports)
Brilliance Jinbei Automotive 218,450 198,687 227,606 269,274 N/A
Chery Automobile 674,774 634,311 550,203 453,918 560
Jianghuai Automobile (JAC) 200,031 217,201 202,395 203,356 219
Lifan Motor Lifan 67,909 122,319 182,860 172,432 200
Zotye Holding Group Zotye 128,698 134,920 122,194 134,263 N/A
Fujian Motor Industry 125,509 116,953 110,104 128,357 145.5
Soueast Motor 114,798 105,993 102,638 117,156 135
Fujian Benz Mercedes-Benz 10,711 10,960 7,466 11,201 10.5
Young Man Automobile Group Lotus 28,555 35,335 45,421 69,708 N/A
Haima (Zhengzhou) Automobile Haima 69,168 70,052 44,020 67,690
Zhongxing Automobile Zhongxing 17,437 12,957 4,825 2,816
Hawtai Motor Group Hawtai 81,439 19,227 34,071 28,729
Aerospace Yuantong Automobile Space Star 3,250

4,956

3,885

845

Qingling Motors Isuzu 1,214 1,224 1,865 906
Sichuan Automobile Yema 4,885 10,807 7,229 4,598
Dandong Huanghai Automobile Huanghai 15,843 17,278 13,010 11,734
Former Gonow Automobile Gonow 48,735 - - -
Zhejiang Jonway Automobile Jonway 0 0 394 621
UFO Auto UFO 8,294 5,834 4,657 4,483
Shaanxi Automobile Group Fujia 1,947 10,009 8,532 1,466
Jiangxi Fire Vehicle Lushan 2 0 0 0
Grand total of Passenger Car
13,757,794 14,472,416 15,495,240 17,928,858 Over 20,560

 

 



Sales plans and forecasts by foreign OEM: expects 12.8% sales increase including imports

 According to MarkLines' original survey, automakers' press releases and news reports, vehicle sales plans and forecasts (including imported vehicle sales) in China for 2014 by foreign OEMs from Japan, the U.S., Europe, Korea, etc. already amount to 15.3 million units as of mid-February 2014. Their sales plan and forecast figures represent 12.8% growth from the sales results of 13.57 million units in 2013.

 

Sales results in 2013 and sales plans and forecasts for 2014 among foreign brands and local joint venture companies

OEM 2013
(results)
2014
(target/forecast)

US
brand
GM *3.24 million units,
  Of which Chinese local sales: 3.16 million units (up 11.4%), export: 83,000 units (up 7.7%)
Over *3.4 million units
By joint
venture
Shanghai GM
(total 3 company)
1.58 million units incl. export( up 11%),
  of which Chevrolet: 715,000 units (up 7.9%), Cadillac: 50,000 units (up 66.6%), Buick: 810,000 units (up 15.7%)
1.6million-1.77 million units
Chinese sales 1.51 million units (up 13.6%) -
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile *1.6 million units including exports
Of which Chinese sales: 1.59 million units (up 9.7%)
*1.8 million units including exports
FAW-GM Light Duty Commercial Vehicle,
incl. Yunnan Hongta Automobile
*60,400 units (up 7.12%),
  Of which Chinese sales: 59,000 units (up 6.3%)
*68,000 units
Sales
in
China
Buick 810,000 units (up 15.7%) N/A
  (sales target of the Cadillac: 100,000 units in 2015)
Chevrolet 652,000 units (up 8.5%)
Cadillac 50,000 units (up 66.6%)
Baojun 101,000 units (up 19.0%) 200,000 units
Wuling *1.48 million units (up *11.2%) *1.6 million units
Ford (Changan Ford) 683,000 units 790,000 units
Chrysler LLC 89,000 units (up 78%), only imports 120,000 units

European
brand
VW Group 3.04 million units (total of factory shipment-based local sales and exports, exluding imports) Max.3.5 million units (Max. up 15%)
3.27 million units delivered (up 16% )
(incl. import sales of 214,100 units in Hong Kong)
-
By joint
venture
Shanghai VW
(VW and Skoda)
1.53 million units 1.68 million-1.75 million units
FAW-VW
(VW and Audi)
1.51 million units, or 1.61 million units incl. imports

Of which VW brand: 1.12 million units, Audi brand: 488,500 units including imports of 80,788 units
Over 1.7 million units
By
brand
or
vehicle
type
VW 2.48 million units 
(Of which imports: 83,000 units)
N/A
Audi 492,000 units (up 21.2 %)
(including 81,000 units of import sales in Hong Kong and mainland China
Skoda 227,000 units
Lamborghini 267 units (down 16.6%)
Bentley Over 2,100 units (down 23%)
Porsche 37,400 units
SEAT 1,100 units
The other, VW brand commercial vehicle *2,500 units
PSA 553,000 units (locally-built vehicles) 670,000-715,000 units (locally-built vehicles)
Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Automobile 550,000 units 650,000-695,000 units
Dongfeng Peugeot division Over 270,000 units 345,000 units,
  of which model 308: 75,000 units, 301: 65,000 units, 408: 59,000 units, 3008: 57,000 units, 2008: 31,000 units, 508: 28,000 units, 207: 13,000 units, 307: 16,000 units
Dongfeng Citroen division 280,000 units 305,000-350,000 units
Changan PSA Automobile 2,600 units 20,000 units
Daimler 228,000 units
  incl. imports, only passenger cars
250,000 units
  incl. imports, only passenger cars
Mercedes Benz 228,000 units (up 11%),
 excluding units in Hong Kong
  incl. imports 100,000 units
250,000 units (up 8%, 20,000 units more than 2013) ,
  incl. imports and exluding units in Hong Kong.
Beijing Benz 116,000 units 136,000 units
Fujian Benz 11,000 units 11,000 units
BMW Group 391,000 units (up 19.7%)
Over 430,000 units
breakdown BMW BMW 360,000 units (up 20%)
Of which
locally-built vehicles: 207,000 units, and imports: 155,000 units
400,000 units (up 10%)
  Note: 7 series is down 40% .
Mini 28.600 units (up 22.9%) N/A
Volvo Car 62,000 units (up 45.6%)
 (Of which locally-built vehicles: 3,700 units (Production at Changan Ford was discontinued.) import sales: 58,000 units
over 74,000 units
  (average sales growth of 20% or higher starting in 2014 after Volvo officially starts production in Sichuan)
Fiat-Chrysler Group
(incl. Chrysler)
Over 137,000 units Over 220,000 units
Local
production
GAC Fiat 48,000 units 100,000 units
<Chrysler LLC> 89,000 units (up 78%) 120,000 units
Renault 34,000 units, import only N/A
JLR 95,000 units (up 30%)
110,000 units (up 15-20%)
breakdown Jaguar 17,800 units (up 140%) N/A
Land Rover 77,000 units (up 17%) N/A
Japanese
brand
Toyota 930,000 units (up 9%), mainland China only 1.1 million units (up 20%), mainland China only
By joint
venture
company
GAC Toyota 303,000 units over 360,000 units (up 20%)
FAW Toyota 555,000 units 660,000 units
  incl. new Vios : over 140,000 units
Lexus 74,000 units 80,000 units
Nissan 1.27 million units
mainland China only, incl. imports but exports.
1.4 million units 
mainland China only, incl. imports excluding exports.
1.3 million units (Renault-Nissan Alliance)/Chinese market share: 6.1% -
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle 927,000 units,
  Of which Venucia series: 105,600 units
1.06 million units,
  of which Venucia series: 158,000 units (up 50%), Teana series: 20,000 units per month
Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile *117,000 units *130,000 units
Infiniti 17,500 units (up 87.8%) over 26,000 units (up 50%)
Honda 764,000 units (up 26.7%)
  (on  factory shipment basis, Chinese local sales incl. Acura import salse)
Over 900,000 units
  (on factory shipment basis, incl. import sales of Acura, and excluding Honda Automobile in China
By
local
company
Guangqi Honda Automobile 435,500 units (factory shipment basis) Over 500,000 units (factory shipment basis)
Dongfeng Honda Automobile 321,400 units (factory shipment basis) Over 350,000 units  (factory shipment basis)
Honda Automobile (China) 24,100 units (factory shipment basis, 29,000 units in 2013) N/A
Acura 4,600 units (to be doubled) Over 8,000 units
  Incl. new MDX: 3,000 units
Mazda 184,000 units
  incl. imports, on factory shipment basis
238,000 units
  incl. imports,on factory shipment basis
By
sales
company
incl.
imports
FAW Mazda 115,000 units over 138,000 units
Changan Mazda 67,000 units 100,000 units
Mitsubishi Motors 67,000 units incl. imports and  retail sales (incl. imports and sales in Hong Kong), (up 63.4%)
N/A
Soueast Motor 20,000 units N/A
GAC Mitsubishi Motors 43,000 units 75,000 units
Suzuki 234,500 units (wholesale basis) Over 300,000 units (wholesale basis)
Local
production
Changan Suzuki 148,000 units N/A
Changhe Suzuki Over 38,000 units N/A
Isuzu (Qingling Motors) *63,000 units
  incl. imports (wholesale basis)
*N/A
Subaru 56,000 units, import sales only 70,000 units, import sales only
Korean
brand
Hyundai-Kia Group 1.62 million units ( up 16%), passenger car only and incl. imports sales 1.73 million-1.75 million units, passenger vehicle only and excluding import
By joint
venture
company
Beijing Hyundai Motor 1.03 million units 1.08 million-1.1 million units,
  incl. 200,000 units of Mistra, eighth-generation Sonata
Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia Motor 546,800 units (up 13.8%)

650,000 units

SsungYong N/A (8,000 units planned) 20,000 units (import sales only)
Taiwan
brand
Yulon Motor (Dongfeng
Yulon Motor only)
33,000 units 36,000-45,000 units
Grand Total
(passenger car only)
Over 13.57 million units Over 15.30 million units

 

 



Sales Forecast by LMC Automotive: Chinese light vehicle market to expand to 31 million units in 2017

(LMC Automotive, Quarter 4 2013)

Chinese light vehicle sales forecast by OEMs Chinese light vehicle sales in 2014 are forecasted to expand by 12.7% year-on-year to 24.0 million units according to LMC Automotive. The Global research company mentions "first -time purchases in the vast inner land provinces are also expected to further fuel the growth momentum of the overall passenger market."


 LMC Automotive also anticipates the Chinese unit sales to continue to increase and expects to rise to 31.4 million units by 2017. Not only VW and GM, but also Chinese OEMs, especially SAIC, Changan and Great Wall, contribute to the expansion of the sales in China to reach 30 million unit level. Sales in China continues to expand; however LMC Automotive states: "Possible car purchasing limits in some tier-2 cities are emerging as one of the major risks for China's Light Vehicle market in the upcoming years。 The economy is rebalancing more slowly than expected towards consumption-driven growth"


Chinese light vehicle sales forecast by make

(units)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total 17,999,439 19,213,565 21,330,087 24,030,531 26,917,428 29,474,193 31,351,063
Volkswagen Group
 Audi
 Bentley
 Lamborghini
 Porsche
 SEAT
 Skoda
 Volkswagen
2,326,881
308,807
1,311
201
22,692
0
220,011
1,773,859
2,798,354
407,738
1,731
220
30,570
450
230,003
2,127,642
3,260,593
488,298
2,011
321
40,801
2,123
239,077
2,487,962
3,782,588
570,281
2,143
383
57,890
3,157
354,629
2,794,105
4,150,942
605,670
2,619
442
80,373
3,566
409,221
3,049,051
4,424,057
607,264
3,198
687
87,201
3,673
459,811
3,262,223
4,634,893
645,722
3,463
795
94,295
3,501
543,650
3,343,467
SAIC Group
 Baojun
 Maxus
 MG Mingjue
 Roewe
 SAIC
 Wuling
1,395,737
21,854
2,056
48,017
114,144
660
1,209,006
1,623,366
68,092
7,076
72,618
127,700
0
1,347,880
1,820,141
60,731
9,565
68,283
133,005
0
1,548,557
2,007,915
83,970
11,328
96,506
173,639
0
1,642,472
2,216,254
111,479
15,290
125,219
201,921
0
1,762,345
2,412,639
128,656
37,110
147,968
227,367
0
1,871,538
2,531,635
134,745
43,050
163,039
235,561
0
1,955,240
General Motors
Group

 Buick
 Cadillac
 Chevrolet
 GMC
 Holden
 Hummer
 Opel
1,300,862

254,312
27,187
880,987
401
2,207
365
135,403
1,441,495

248,455
29,126
988,876
0
1,501
0
173,537
1,569,901

296,731
43,096
1,019,110
0
219
67
210,678
1,702,366

322,089
54,204
1,107,844
0
0
0
218,229
1,912,582

377,005
57,787
1,203,925
0
0
0
273,865
2,026,881

429,929
71,609
1,232,917
0
0
0
292,426
2,091,749

478,664
77,872
1,239,478
0
0
0
295,735
Hyundai Group
 Hyundai
 Kia
1,229,458
770,705
458,753
1,404,106
890,224
513,882
1,619,816
1,041,287
578,529
1,711,389
1,113,212
598,177
1,845,976
1,185,700
660,276
2,007,209
1,277,834
729,375
2,087,745
1,328,327
759,418
Changan
Automobile Group

 Changan
 Changhe
 Hafei
1,023,939

851,252
48,239
124,448
982,618

876,799
35,873
69,946
1,049,682

990,223
24,217
35,242
1,157,392

1,090,565
27,780
39,047
1,281,396

1,209,170
30,085
42,141
1,424,950

1,346,001
32,975
45,974
1,586,500

1,502,975
35,087
48,438
Dongfeng Motor
 DF Honda
 Dianyue
 Dongfeng
 Venucia
730,141
0
0
730,141
0
786,769
14,089
0
730,875
41,805
888,494
16,502
0
792,557
79,435
1,007,519
19,212
0
898,441
89,866
1,137,761
23,954
3,317
1,011,383
99,107
1,226,094
25,625
3,988
1,092,582
103,899
1,292,219
26,047
4,391
1,155,922
105,859
Great Wall Motor
 Great Wall
 Haval
486,811
342,995
143,816
624,271
403,552
220,719
712,463
457,940
254,523
896,330
536,269
360,061
1,019,858
602,262
417,596
1,151,548
713,922
437,626
1,253,461
800,387
453,074
Toyota Group
 Daihatsu
 Lexus
 Scion
 Toyota
930,562
33,510
52,055
236
844,761
886,147
30,953
60,636
551
794,007
917,324
26,353
62,559
219
828,193
964,171
23,381
65,340
357
875,093
1,074,764
25,120
70,113
388
979,143
1,162,547
26,943
70,853
427
1,064,324
1,216,114
27,649
75,958
458
1,112,049
Renault-Nissan
Group

 Infiniti
 Nissan
 Renault
 Samsung
920,863

12,602
886,051
1,357
20,853
807,495

13,383
767,397
2,355
24,360
807,917

10,947
770,389
2,235
24,346
881,583

15,553
837,285
2,946
25,799
971,529

37,554
893,103
3,222
37,650
1,077,472

57,936
963,605
3,832
52,099
1,192,104

64,519
1,059,057
4,668
63,860
Ford Group
 Ford
 Lincoln
381,509
380,715
794
483,754
482,870
884
697,954
697,048
906
800,825
797,382
3,443
913,079
904,533
8,546
1,038,367
1,028,740
9,627
1,110,180
1,099,504
10,676
Geely Group
 Emgrand
 Englon
 Geely
 Gleagle
 Maple
 Volvo
473,343
113,219
53,814
220,192
45,527
0
40,591
535,340
160,517
75,547
173,888
81,492
0
43,896
580,695
188,242
95,233
124,379
112,173
0
60,668
605,554
236,562
118,128
0
186,683
0
64,181
803,820
329,036
133,952
0
214,177
0
126,655
961,773
358,471
146,474
0
251,468
0
205,360
1,069,607
394,917
152,483
0
261,027
0
261,180
Honda Group
 Acura
 Honda
621,418
3,987
617,431
591,460
2,435
589,025
693,602
2,842
690,760
785,379
4,213
781,166
871,439
4,829
866,610
931,023
5,810
925,213
961,332
7,278
954,054
PSA Group
 Citroen
 Peugeot
407,123
230,564
176,559
443,381
224,776
218,605
549,107
276,261
272,846
669,982
320,584
349,398
809,009
411,946
397,063
879,978
451,942
428,036
922,356
478,465
443,891
Brilliance Jinbei
 Brilliance
 Jinbei
457,547
132,705
324,842
482,404
167,813
314,591
557,889
218,848
339,041
616,692
226,782
389,910
655,403
226,049
429,354
728,606
245,152
483,454
796,846
255,840
541,006
Beiqi Foton
 Foton
533,762
533,762
520,482
520,482
523,910
523,910
574,420
574,420
632,298
632,298
715,932
715,932
788,357
788,357
Chery Group
 Chery
 Guanzhi
 Karry
 Qoros
 Rely
 Riich
641,715
581,114
0
39,460
0
9,203
11,938
563,396
513,096
0
31,548
0
4,222
14,530
502,996
433,278
9,605
36,302
0
2,779
21,032
647,706
486,348
33,569
43,352
8,681
5,506
70,250
697,212
493,375
37,595
47,528
19,913
5,895
92,906
748,657
506,019
46,001
53,121
23,903
13,180
106,433
780,751
514,685
51,311
57,418
27,555
16,025
113,757
Jianghuai
Automotive

 JAC
425,507

425,507
429,025

429,025
458,029

458,029
516,930

516,930
588,381

588,381
654,202

654,202
708,941

708,941
BMW Group
 BMW
 MINI
 Rolls-Royce
 Zinoro
237,555
222,100
14,598
857
0
335,713
313,638
21,328
747
0
402,495
375,955
25,547
953
40
482,038
453,660
26,978
1,021
379
542,183
511,514
29,029
1,195
445
595,490
561,005
32,456
1,370
659
651,143
613,727
35,075
1,511
830
BYD Auto
 BYD
 Denza
448,484
448,484
0
456,056
456,056
0
492,070
490,056
2,014
481,038
469,195
11,843
565,643
547,422
18,221
577,674
553,672
24,002
636,725
609,189
27,536
FAW Group
 FAW
 Hongqi
 Kaili
 Xiali
511,590
315,066
2
0
196,522
396,252
251,644
146
0
144,462
390,516
285,293
2,278
387
102,558
396,148
349,382
8,356
3,212
35,198
437,476
380,539
12,897
5,432
38,608
475,887
409,014
16,823
8,764
41,286
508,360
435,976
17,971
12,187
42,226
Daimler Group
 Mercedes-Benz
 Smart
217,194
207,211
9,983
232,618
215,088
17,530
249,962
234,449
15,513
292,647
279,393
13,254
366,906
347,554
19,352
445,945
421,038
24,907
497,283
470,297
26,986
Fiat-Chrysler
Group

 Alfa Romeo
 Chrysler
 Dodge
 Ferrari
 Fiat
 Jeep
 Maserati
36,391

0
277
15,089
363
963
19,011
688
59,752

0
275
15,207
383
1,214
41,983
690
105,120

69
3,065
47,432
523
3,100
50,006
925
203,242

320
3,610
63,859
603
65,798
61,271
7,781
256,106

840
3,689
80,968
720
89,476
68,473
11,940
326,178

7,342
3,299
92,829
789
117,880
91,083
12,956
362,899

11,472
2,987
95,172
811
122,184
116,155
14,118
Mazda Motors
 Mazda
224,676
224,676
180,010
180,010
183,088
183,088
245,926
245,926
282,068
282,068
322,457
322,457
341,513
341,513
Suzuki Group
 Suzuki
301,228
301,228
254,688
254,688
230,478
230,478
215,494
215,494
228,304
228,304
247,027
247,027
249,953
249,953
Tata Group
 Jaguar
 Land Rover
36,605
4,640
31,965
67,335
6,840
60,495
90,361
14,932
75,429
108,095
18,613
89,482
128,309
24,472
103,837
152,291
39,096
113,195
173,339
48,691
124,648
Mitsubishi Motors
 Mitsubishi
63,991
63,991
43,637
43,637
63,965
63,965
100,211
100,211
114,903
114,903
135,008
135,008
145,516
145,516
Fuji Heavy
 Subaru
51,356
51,356
45,349
45,349
60,170
60,170
66,773
66,773
86,788
86,788
93,004
93,004
96,398
96,398
Isuzu Motors
 Isuzu
64,762
64,762
64,458
64,458
64,517
64,517
71,111
71,111
74,871
74,871
82,031
82,031
90,199
90,199
Fiat Industrial
 Iveco
41,705
41,705
41,318
41,318
40,350
40,350
47,892
47,892
48,946
48,946
50,573
50,573
52,883
52,883
Mahindra Group
 Ssangyong
871
871
7,205
7,205
5,073
5,073
2,235
2,235
2,596
2,596
3,177
3,177
3,489
3,489
DRB-Hicom
 Proton
306
306
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other Chinese
Manufacturers

 Beijing
 Beijing Hyundai
 Changfeng
 Everus
 Feidie
 Fstar
 Golden Dragon
 Gonow
 Guangzhou
 Haima
 Hawtai
 Heibao
 Huanghai
 Jiangnan
 JMC
 Kaima
 King Long
 Landwind
 Lifan
 Nanjun
 Shaanxi
 Sichuan (Note 4)
 Soueast
 TAIC
 Wuzheng
 Yaxing
 Youngman Lotus
 Yuantong
 Yuejin
 Yutong
 Zhongxing
 Zibo
 Zotye
1,377,096

64,952
0
23,330
24,635
5,834
70,142
10,796
12,773
17,006
151,716
19,227
36121
17,262
32,416
137,798
64,606
14,541
14,017
174,956
34,217
10,009
10,807
78,494
1322
22,812
1070
35,335
4,956
69,443
4,827
61,773
48,796
101,107
1,463,919

117,520
0
22,192
24,576
5,051
44,020
14,028
12,026
32,611
128,747
34,071
0
13,010
29,535
145,450
65,805
15,993
12,500
241,291
28,674
8,532
7,229
83,517
826
28,200
640
45,421
3,885
89,129
4,214
63,231
49,336
92,659
1,580,263

196,295
433
28,016
20,822
4,909
26,466
15,227
11,519
62,177
144,214
30,771
0
11,531
21,057
156,960
60,687
14,545
20,892
196,750
19,001
2,757
3,799
95,844
1,218
28,192
285
61,830
1,567
105,511
5,392
66,126
56,688
108,782
1,806,853

244,704
1,359
38,006
29,298
5,734
27,808
17,621
13,592
77,769
169,175
36,841
0
11,274
19,093
164,173
65,036
15,101
24,850
211,449
20,662
3,074
3,983
107,718
0
29,481
294
73,875
3,983
104,946
6,173
75,902
61,234
142,645
2,008,427

263,837
2,653
40,524
32,201
5,728
30,503
19,943
15,621
110,276
214,253
38,977
0
11,158
19,232
176,385
72,717
15,002
24,337
224,324
22,509
3,309
4,324
115,002
0
32,812
304
90,033
5,751
101,673
6,795
80,673
62,834
164,737
2,178,898

283,439
3,295
44,015
34,674
6,579
33,627
23,022
18,216
129,804
249,053
39,585
0
11,358
18,080
188,384
88,192
15,432
26,662
233,187
23,835
3,559
4,727
118,610
0
34,912
320
97,509
6,752
102,887
7,440
85,071
66,850
179,822
2,280,167

297,636
3,683
47,138
36,432
6,691
36,275
25,799
20,315
143,263
257,045
39,509
0
12,084
17,253
202,191
95,742
16,077
26,830
239,397
25,466
3,793
5,068
115,496
0
38,523
340
97,976
7,780
108,914
8,131
89,068
73,134
183,118
Other
 Aston Martin
 Izh
 Luxgen
 Others by Country
 Saab
98,451
154
0
7,058
91,204
35
161,392
214
0
31,106
130,072
0
161,146
247
0
30,533
130,366
0
182,087
338
0
39,817
141,932
0
192,199
461
0
45,655
146,083
0
216,618
575
0
52,890
163,153
0
236,406
673
0
61,028
174,705
0
Source:LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Sales Forecast (Quarter 4, 2013)"
(Note) 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3. For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.
4. Categorized values for "Iranian Manufacturers Sinad" as "Other Chinese Manufacturers Sichuan" (Mar. 4th 2014).

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