Chinese OEM sales outlook 2013

Passenger cars to surpass 18 million units and commercial vehicles to exceed 3.3 million units

2013/03/29

Summary

 

 According to each OEM's announcement and MarkLines' original survey conducted at the end of February 2013, the 2013 auto sales (including exports, but not imports) planned by each OEM will total 21.3 million units. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars will exceed 18 million units and those of commercial vehicles will surpass 3.3 million units. This figure is slightly higher compared to the forecast by China's government-affiliated automotive manufacturers association, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) (total vehicle sales: 20.65 million units including 16.8 million passenger cars) and by a government-affiliated think tank, State Information Center of China (total vehicle sales will increase by about 8% year-on-year to about 20.85 million units).

 Major foreign OEMs plan to sell 13.2 million units (many of the OEMs include imports in their forecast), up by more than 12% year-on-year, in China in 2013. This forecast is more than 4 points higher than CAAM's forecast of about 8%, which does not include imports. Japanese OEMs plan to increase their sales volume by 11.4% year-on-year.


 Concerning the import/export of vehicles, China is estimated to export 1.3 million vehicles and to import 1.45 million units in 2013.


 Moreover, according to a medium-/long-term forecast, China's vehicle sales will increase up to 30 million units in 2020.

 According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China's announcement on March 8, 2013, vehicle ownership in China has already amounted to 109.44 million units (including 93.09 million units privately owned) at the end of 2012, which was more than 20 units per 100 households; this ratio is expected to increase further to about 60 units per 100 households in ten years, or in 2022 (cited by the statement in January 2013 of Deputy Researcher (or saying "Research Associate") Wang Junxiu from "Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences", an editor of the blue book for China's automotive industry, "Annual Report on Development of Automotive Society in China (2012-2013").


 LMC Automotive's forecast on January 2013 indicated that the Chinese Light Vehicle sales (shipment + imports) will increase by 10.3 % y/y to 21.01 million units in 2013, to 29.68 million units in 2016. The 2013 growth rate will be above that of 2012 sales, 5.9%, because Chinese economic situation is improving as changes in political leadership have always led to government-driven stimulus in the past. Although, the company points out: "(for the 2013 market), downside risks remain with exports to the volatile European and USA markets, and also with political tension between China and Japan "

Related Reports: Sales in China rose 4.3% to 19.31 million units in 2012 (Mar. 2013)



Forecast of China's auto market: sales volume of vehicle to surpass 20 million units in 2013 and to increase up to 30 million in 2020

 CAAM forecasts that the 2013 auto sales volume in China will amount to about 20.65 million units. Among them, exports of vehicles made in China will be 1.3 million units and sales of vehicles in China will be about 19.35 million units (announced in January 2013).

 In the meantime, according to the 2013 auto sale volume forecast announced in January 2013 by State Information Center of China, total vehicle sales in China will increase by about 8% year-on-year to about 20.85 million units, which is almost the same as the forecast (20.65 million units) by CAAM.

 The improvement of China's economy in 2013 compared to the previous two years when the growth of vehicle sales was low is a positive factor and predicator for the relatively high growth forecast.


 CAAM's 2013 sales volume forecast by vehicle type is 16.8 million passenger cars (up about 8% year-on-year) and 3.85 million units of commercial vehicles including chassis (up about 1% year-on-year).

 The forecast by type of passenger cars is as follows: 2.46 million SUVs (up 23.0%, the highest year-on-year increase), 11.55 million sedans and hatchbacks (up 7.5%), 2.3 million units of minivans (up 1.9%), all of which are expected to register positive growth, whereas MPVs are estimated to post a 0.7% year-on-year negative growth to 490,000 units.

 On the other hand, among commercial vehicles (including chassis), the sales volume of buses will increase to 520,000 units (up 2.5% year-on-year), the growth rate of which is expected to shrink from 4.0% in the previous year. In the meantime, sales volume of trucks will increase to 3.33 million units (up 0.8%), which is estimated to post positive growth compared to negative growth (minus 6.8%) in the previous year. The growth of construction investment in infrastructures due partly to the enhanced urbanization of agricultural villages is a major positive factor.


 The 2013 transaction volume in the used car market in China is expected to increase from about 4.8 million units in the previous year to 6.0 million to 6.5 million units (announced by China Automobile Dealers Association in January 2013).


 In the long term, under the 8-year economic growth target announced by the Chinese government in November 2012, which includes a national per capita income-doubling plan for 2020 compared to 2010, with rising income levels, the vehicle market in China is expected to continue steady growth and vehicle sales are estimated to increase up to 30 million units in 2020 (according to the statement by GM China's President Bob Socia on January 14, 2013).

 CAAM forecasts that the year-on-year growth of vehicle sales volume will remain at about 8% in the next 10 years or so (announced in January 2013).

 

<Table 1> Sales volume of new vehicles in China and forecast by vehicle type

(1,000 units)
New vehicle sales (Note 1) (Figures included) Production
in China
 
Volume Increase/Decrease rate
(year-on-year)
Export volume Volume
2011 2012 2013
(forecast)
2011 2012 2013
(forecast)
2011 2012 2011 2012
  2/3box (Note 2) 10,123 10,745 11,550 6.6% 6.1% 7.5% 332 479 10,138 10,767
MPV 498 493 490 11.7% -0.9% -0.7% 13 5 506 492
SUV 1,594 2,000 2,460 20.2% 25.5% 23.0% 96 129 1,603 1,999
Minivan (Note 3) 2,258 2,257 2,300 -9.4% -0.1% 1.9% 36 48 2,239 2,266
Passenger car total 14,472 15,495 16,800 5.2% 7.1% 8.4% 476 661 14,485 15,524
Bus 488 507 520 10.1% 4.0% 2.5% 45 55 483 506
Truck 3,545 3,304 3,330 -8.2% -6.8% 0.8% 293 340 3,451 3,242
CV total 4,033 3,811 3,850 -6.3% -5.5% 1.0% 338 395 3,934 3,748
Grand total (Note 4) 18,505 19,306 20,650 2.5% 4.3% 7.0% 814 1,056 18,419 19,272
Note 1. New vehicle sales include exports, but not imports.
2. 2/3box includes sedans and hatchbacks.
3. Minivan means a minivan style passenger car of which overall length is 3.5 meters or shorter, and of which displacement is 1.0-liter or smaller. Slightly larger models with displacement over 1.0-liter (1.1- to 1.3-liter) have been launched in recent years.
4. The 2013 sales volume of 20.65 million units (factory shipment base) is estimate by CAAM.

 

 



2013 sales plan by each Chinese OEM: 21.3 million vehicles and more than 18 million passenger cars according to survey and announcements

 According to the announcement of each OEM in China, MarkLines' original survey, and media reports, the 2013 vehicle sales volume in China (wholesale/factory shipment basis) amounts to 21.3 million units, which is slightly higher than the forecast (20.65 million units) announced by CAAM in January 2013.

 Among the above figures, the 2013 sales volume by the 2012 top 10 OEMs in sales volume is planned to exceed 19.5 million units, which is more than 90% (91.6% concentration rate (total of the market share)) of the total (over 21.3 million units) of all the OEMs in China. When this target is achieved, the Chinese government will fulfill one of its objectives of the restructuring of the automotive industry (corporations), in which it will boost the concentration rate in production/sales volume of the top 10 OEMs to more than 90%.

 Among the OEM groups, OEM groups that plan to sell more than 2 million units a year include three OEMs that sold 2 million units in 2012 - SAIC (4.46 million units in 2012/planning 4.9 million units in 2013), Dongfeng Motor Corp. (3.08 million units/3.32 million units in 2013), and FAW (2.65 million units in 2012/over 3.55 million units in 2013) - and Changan Automobile Group (1.96 million units in 2012/over 2.1 million units) and BAIC Group (1.69 million units in 2012/over 2 million units in 2013) aim to join the major core OEM groups.

 When we compare the 2013 plan with the previous year, FAW, which is following Dongfeng Motor Corp., plans to increase sales volume by 34%, the highest. This is because FAW is targeting to maintain the previously set target. Guangzhou Automobile, which is currently strengthening its joint ventures/alliances with Honda/Toyota, and Fiat-Chrysler Gr., Mitsubishi Motors, and further with Chery Automobile is planning to increase its sales volume by as much as 29.2%. Chery Automobile, which is currently building a joint venture production structure with each of JLR (Jaguar/Land Rover), which is under the umbrella of Tata, and Israel-based Quantum LLC in Jiangsu Province, plans to increase sales volume by 24.3%. BAIC Group, which acquired Saab technology and aims to expand business through its own brand of passenger cars, plans to increase by 18.3%. JAC, Brilliance Auto, and Geely Holding Group aims to achieve a high growth of 19.2%, 17.6%, and 13.9%, respectively.


 Concerning sales of passenger cars (refer to the table 4), the 2013 planned sales volume of each OEM amounts to 18 million units, which is much higher than CAAM's forecast of 16.8 million units.

 Among OEM groups (refer to the Table 4), SAIC plans to sell 4.5 million passenger cars, which is the largest, FAW (over 3.2 million units), Dongfeng Motor Corp. (over 2.91 million units), and Changan Automobile (over 2.1 million units); the 2012 top 4 OEMs in sales volume each plans to sell more than 2 million cars.

 Under the 2013 sales plans by passenger car manufacturer (refer to the Table 4), six OEMs such FAW-VW (1.5 million units), Shanghai GM (over 1.5 million units), Shanghai VW (1.42 million), SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile (over 1.3 million units), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle (1 million units), and Beijing Hyundai Motor (over 1 million units) target to sell more than 1 million units in 2013.

 

<Table 2> China OEM Group: 2013 new vehicle sales plan and the 2011-2012 sales volume

(1,000 units)
Rank OEM group
(Note 1)
New vehicle sales (Note 2)
Sales volume Sales plan
2011 2012 2013 Year-on-year
1 SAIC 3,966 4,461 4,900 9.8%
2 Dongfeng Motor Corp. 3,059 3,078 3,320 7.8%
3 FAW 2,606 2,649 Over 3,550 Over 34.0%
4 Changan Automobile Group 2,009 1,956 Over 2,100 Over 7.3%
5 BAIC Group 1,526 1,691 Over 2,000 Over 18.3%
6 Guangzhou Automobile 740 712 Over 920 Over 29.2%
7 Brilliance Auto (Brilliance) 567 638 750 17.6%
8 Great Wall Motor 487 625 700 12.1%
9 Chery Automobile 642 563 700 24.3%
10 Geely Holding Group 433 491 560 13.9%
11 JAC (Jianghuai Automobile Group) 495 487 Over 580 Over 19.2%
12 BYD Auto 449 456 Over 500 Over 9.6%
13 Lifan Industry (Group) 202 270 Over 300 Over 11.1%
14 Fujian Motor 193 193 Over 230 -
15 China National Heavy Duty Truck Group 159 138 152 10.3%
16 Zotye 135 122 n.a. -
17 Shaanxi Automotive Group 119 95 106 12.1%
18 Qingling Motors 94 89 n.a. -
Others (Note 3) 626 591 n.a. -
Total 18,505 19,306 Over 21,300
(Note 4)
Over 9.8%
Note 1. OEMs in descending order of 2012 sales volume. Sales volume and sales plan in the 2013 new vehicle sales plan is on a factory shipment (wholesale) basis.
2. New vehicle sales do not include imports but exports. Commercial vehicle includes chassis.
3. "Others" is the total by OEMs that sold less than 70,000 units in 2012.
4. 2013 plan by "Others" includes a total of 180,000 units by Hawtai Automobile Group (100,000 units in 2013), Baotou Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck (35,000 units), and Chengdu Dayun Automobile Group (45,000 units), which announced their 2013 plan.
▽Supplement: Detailed information of the above OEMs' figures included
OEM group Information related to the 2013 sales plan
SAIC ▽Group's sales plan: 4.9 million units
* SAIC Motor Commercial Vehicle Co. 200,000 units (8% of them are to be exported)
 of which Nanjing Iveco 155,000 units (including Yuejing brand model 115,000 units),
 SAIC-Iveco-Hongyan 30,000 units (up 76% year-on-year, heavy commercial vehicle)
Dongfeng Motor Corp. ▽Group sales plan: 3.32 million units
* DFL, Commercial Vehicle Co.: over 180,000 units (medium/heavy commercial vehicle, including Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor 35,000 units)
* Dongfeng Automobile: 294,000 units
* DFL, Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle: 1 million units
FAW ▽Group sales plan: over 3.55 million units
* FAW Jiefang Automotive (commercial vehicle only): 179,000 units
 Figures included: Medium/heavy truck 169,000 units (Their marketshare 17.5%, the J6 series 84,000 units),
 Light truck 10,000 units (the JL01 1,000 units, "Huwei" light truck 9,000 units)
* Passenger car: over 3.2 million units
Changan Automobile Group ▽Group sales plan: over 2.1 million units
BAIC Group ▽Group sales plan: 2 to 2.1 million units
* Beiqi Foton Motor: 742,000 units. Including Auman 120,000 units.
Exports to increase by 17.8% year-on-year.
Guangzhou Automobile Group ▽Group sales plan: over 920,000 units
Brilliance Auto (Brilliance) ▽Group sales plan: 750,000 units (up to 770,000 units)
 Including exports of locally manufactured vehicle 70,000 units/sets (including KD kits)
Great Wall Motor ▽Group sales plan: 700,000 units
* Export: 160,000 units
Chery Automobile ▽Group sales plan: 700,000 units
* Passenger car: 650,000 units, commercial vehicle: 50,000 units
 Including new-energy vehicle such as PHV and EV 1,000 units
JAC ▽Group sales plan: over 580,000 units
* Passenger car: 300,000 units, heavy truck 30,000 units
* Export plan: 70,000 units (figures included)
BYD Auto ▽Group sales plan: over 500,000 units
* Passenger car: 500,000 units
China National Heavy Duty Truck Group ▽Group sales plan: 152,000 units
* Light truck: 25,000-30,000 units
Shaanxi Automotive Group ▽Group sales plan: 106,000 units
* Heavy truck: 85,000 units

Note: For the 2013 passenger car sales plan by passenger car manufacturers under the umbrella of major Chinese OEM groups, refer to Table 4 "Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)".

 

 



The 2013 sales plan in China and forecast by major foreign OEM

 According to MarkLines' original survey and announcements by foreign OEMs and media reports at the end of February 2013, major foreign OEMs plan to sell 13.2 million units in 2013 (many of these OEMs include imports). This is an increase of more than 12% year-on-year, which is more than 4 points higher than the growth forecast by specialized institutions such as CAAM and State Information Center of about 8% (excluding imports).

 The sales target of each brand by country/region is as follows: the year-on-year growth rate is higher for European vehicles (up 13.8%) and Korean vehicles (up 13.4%) and the rate for Japanese vehicles is 11.4%, which is more than 2 points lower than that of European/Korean models and 0.4 points lower than that of US models (up 11.8%).


 Among OEMs, the most ambitious year-on-year increase target is 46.5% by Chrysler, US OEM that aims to rebuild its business in China, and 82.9% by one Japanese OEM, Mitsubishi Motors. Other OEMs that target as high as 20% growth rate include two Japanese OEMs - Subaru (Fuji Heavy Industries, up 32.2%) and Isuzu (up 23.1%), two European OEMs, Volvo Car (up 28%) and Daimler (up 26.8%), and one US OEM, Ford (up 27.5%).

 Among three major Japanese OEMs, Honda targets a high growth (up 18.7% year-on-year, wholesale/including imports), whereas Nissan (up 10.3% year-on-year, including light vehicles and models of its joint venture, Dongfeng/Venucia brand) and Toyota (up 7% year-on-year, retail sale, including imports) target a relatively moderate growth. Suzuki's target is minus 2.9% growth.

 VW group has been posting solid results and boosting its share of the passenger car market in China in recent years. The Group targets a high growth of about 12% (including imports). PSA, whose group has recently generated poor results, plans to increase its sales substantially by 16.3% year-on-year including imports; its target growth rate is higher than that of BMW Group (up 11.6% year-on-year, including imports of Mini/Rolls-Royce models). JLR Group, which won approval for joint production with Chery and is currently preparing local production, plans to boost combined sales with Jaguar and Land Rover by 16.7% year-on-year.

 Including its joint venture brands (Wuling/Baojun) in China, which have been registering strong results, GM has the largest share of the passenger car market in China, planning to increase its sales volume by 8.5%, which is nearly the same as the growth of the entire market in China.

 

<Table 3> 2012 sales in China and the 2013 sales plan and forecast by brand by major foreign OEM (Group)

OEM Sales volume (1,000 units) Remarks
(Volume)
2012 2013
Sales volume Sales volume
plan/
forecast
Year-on-year
increase/
decrease
Japanese
brand
Toyota 841 900 7.0%  Retail sale. Only mainland China, including exports such as Lexus
Nissan Gr. 1,211 1,336 10.3%  Including Dongfeng/Venucia brand, passenger car and LCV
Honda 632 750- 18.7%  Wholesale, including exports/imports
Mazda 187 200 7.0%  Retail sale, including imports
Mitsubishi Motors 41 75 82.9%  Retail sale
Suzuki *242 *235 -2.9%
Isuzu *65 *80 23.1%  Including imports/commercial vehicle
Subaru 44 58 32.2%  Retail sale
Total 3,263 3,634 11.4%
European
brand
VW Gr. 2,609 2,920 11.9%  Only locally made models (Shanghai VW/FAW-VW), including exports
PSA *448 *521 16.3%  Including imports
BMW Gr. *311 *347 11.6%  Including imports (Mini/Rolls-Royce)
Daimler *231 *293 26.8%  Including imports (Benz/smart/Denza), commercial vehicle
Renault *25.5 *28 9.8%  Including Renault-Samsung
Volvo Car 42 60 42.9%
JLR *60 *70 16.7%
Fiat Gr. *46.5 *53.6 15.3%
Total 3,773 4,293 13.8%
US brand GM 2,836 3,078 8.5%  Wholesale, including Wuling /Baojun model, export of 100,000 units
Ford Gr. *469 *598 27.5%
Chrysler Gr. *53.5 *78.4 46.5%
Total 3,359 3,754 11.8%
Korean
brand
Hyundai-Kia Gr. 1,340 1,520 13.4%  Including only locally made vehicles, including exports
Ssangyong *2 *1.6 -20.0%
Total 1,342 1,522 13.4%
Grand total 11,736 13,202 12.5%
Note 1. Figures with * in 2012 sales volume and 2013 sales plan represent forecast by LMC Automotive in January 2013. Figures without * in the 2013 sales volume plan/forecast are based on an original survey by MarkLines.
2. LMC Automotive survey includes sales volume of imported vehicles and sales volume outside mainland China including Hong Kong. With these differences in statistical standards, the above Table, and the previous Table 2 "China OEM Group: 2013 new vehicle sales plan and the 2011-2012 sales volume (factory shipment basis)" and Table 4 "Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)" do not necessarily agree.

 

 



Forecast for 2013 China's import and export: Exports to increase by 23% to 1.3 million units while imports to increase by 28% to 1.45 million units


 According to CAAM's forecast, the 2013 imports and exports of Chinese vehicles will each grow by more than 20% year-on-year.


 The 2013 exports of passenger cars and commercial vehicles (including chassis) made in China is estimated to grow by about 23% year-on-year to 1.3 million units. Under the 2013 export plan by major OEMs, Chery Automobile, which is the largest exporter of passenger cars in the previous year, plans to export 180,000 passenger cars, nearly the same level as the previous year (182,000 units). Geely Holding Group, which is the second largest exporter in 2012, plans to expand overseas markets to North Africa/East Europe/Central Asia, though it still has not announced its plan (100,000 units in 2012). Geely Holding Group will further expand the existing market including Russia/Iraq by strengthening introduction of new models. Geely Holding Group focuses on the construction of CKD plants in Egypt/Iran/Belarus/Algeria in 2013, pressing ahead with the cultivation of new markets.


 On the other hand, the 2013 imports of passenger cars and commercial vehicles are estimated to be about 1.45 million units, up about 28% year-on-year. The increase in inventory in the fourth quarter of 2012, due particularly to slumping sales of Japanese models, is among the negative factors for imports of vehicles in 2013. Yet, on the whole, the favorable turn of the Chinese economy is expected to boost sales of imported vehicles substantially to an estimated 28% positive growth. China Automotive News on January 7, 2013 reported that 27 new models are scheduled to be launched in the imported vehicle market in China in 2013.

 

<Table 4> Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)
OEM Passenger car
sales volume (unit)
Passenger car sales plan
(Note 1)
2011 2012 2013
(1,000 units)
Remarks (figures included and others)
SAIC 3,731,455 4,166,443 Over 4,510
  Shanghai VW 1,165,827 1,280,008 1,420  VW 1.12 million units, Skoda brand 300,000 units
Shanghai GM 1,185,585 1,363,532 Over 1,500  Chevrolet 700,000 units. Buick 800,000 units (the new Excelle 300,000 units)
SAIC-GM-Wuling 1,217,882 1,322,585 Over 1,350  1.5 million units including the Baojun over 120,000 units and mini trucks
SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle 162,161 200,318 240  E50 (EV) 1,000 units
Dongfeng Motor Corp. 2,329,039 2,455,231 Over 2,910
Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Automobile 404,139 440,028 507.5-547.5  Citroen over 263,000 units, Peugeot over about 237,000 units
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Car 808,588 772,995 1,000  93,000 units of Venucia joint venture models
Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile 51,509 47,603 121  Including commercial vehicles. 10,000 units (figures included) of exports including commercial vehicles
Dongfeng Automobile
(Note 2)
- 1,192 173  Including light/mini commercial vehicles. Total of 294,000 units including Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile
Dongfeng Yulon Motor 7,058 31,106 55
Dongfeng Honda 255,468 282,171 300
Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor 100,678 136,501 180
Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia Motors 432,518 480,443 520
Dongfeng Yu'an 243,053 202,991 Over 203  To surpass the 2012 actual sales, higher growth than the other OEM's average growth rate
Dongfeng Motor Corp. Passenger Vehicle 26,028 60,201 100  Only Fengshen models
FAW Group 2,314,182 2,413,455 Over 3,200
FAW-VW 1,034,888 1,328,888 1,500  VW 940,000 units (the new Bora/the new Jetta over 450,000 units), Audi over 415,000 units (the Q 35,000 units, the A6L 165,000 units)
FAW Toyota Motor 529,046 495,477 600  Including a very small number of commercial vehicles and medium buses, the Coaster (4,833 units in 2012)
Tianjin FAW Xiali 253,035 185,018 400  Based on MarkLines' original survey
FAW-GM 174 94 78  Including light commercial vehicles
FAW Jilin Automobile 103,645 90,942 175  Including light/mini commercial vehicles
FAW Car 241,362 184,212 400  Based on MarkLines' original survey
FAW Haima 151,716 128,747 225  the Haima 3 100,000 units
Tianjin Meiya Automobile 316 77 n.a.
Changan Automobile Group 1,576,033 1,596,937 Over 2,100
Changan Suzuki 220,008 170,037 290 and over  To start original brand models in 2013
Changan Ford 418,600 493,598 600
Changan Mazda 90  Including a small number of imported vehicles (which are not included in the actual sales volume)
Changan Automobile 714,239 750,579 800
Jiangling Motor Holding 24,810 24,764 n.a.
Changhe Automobile 119,958 113,465 160  Including Changhe Suzuki Automobile. EV 5,000 units
Hafei Motor 78,418 44,494 180
BAIC Group
(Beijing Automotive Group)
846,787 1,037,632 Over 1,190
Beijing Benz 77,795 93,664 103  Based on MarkLines' original survey
Beijing Hyundai Motor 739,800 859,595 1,000
Beiqi Foton Motor 8,109 7,189 742  Nearly all commercial vehicles
Beijing Automobile Works 11,067 10,164 70  Including light commercial vehicles
BAIC Motor 10,016 67,020 Over 70  Total of 28,000 units of Shenbao brand (C70/C50/B40), which will be launched in 2013
Guangzhou Automobile Group 721,095 680,027 Over 920
Guangqi Honda 362,294 316,405 Over 400
Guangqi Toyota 274,417 250,088 290
GAC Fiat - 11,288 100
GAC Mitsubishi - 2,491 50
GAC Motor 17,006 38,780 80  the Trumpchi 65,000 units
Former GAC Changfeng Motor 31,196 19,915 -  Operation was transferred and integrated to GAC Motor in September 2012
GAC Gonow 11,933 12,026 n.a.
Honda Automobile (China) 24,249 29,034 n.a.
Chery Automobile 634,311 550,203 570-600  Up to 420,000 units in China and up to 180,000 units of exports
BYD Auto 448,484 456,056 500
Geely Holding Group 432,752 491,444 560
Great Wall Motor 365,075 487,370 700  Including commercial vehicles, of which exports account for 150,000-160,000 units
Brilliance Auto 294,131 374,980 750  Including commercial vehicles. Exports 70,000 units. Chongqing plant 200,000 units.
Brilliance Jinbei 152,441 183,045 n.a.
Mianyang Huaxing Automobile 46,246 44,561
Brilliance BMW 95,444 147,374
JAC 217,201 202,395 300  Exports of 70,000 units including commercial vehicles
Zotye Holding Group 134,920 122,194 n.a
Lifan Industry 122,319 182,860 Approx. 220  180,000 units excluding minivans
Fujian Automobile 116,953 110,104 Over 150
Soueast Motor 105993 102,638 150
Fujian Benz 10,960 7,466 n.a.  20,000 units announced in July 2011
Others (Note 3) 187,679 167,909 n.a.
Grand total 14,472,416 15,495,240 Over 18,000  Only passenger car
Note 1. OEMs in descending order of 2012 sales volume. Passenger car sales and 2013 passenger car sales plan are on a wholesale/factory shipment basis.
2. Dongfeng Automobile sold 263,210 units in 2012 including Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile and commercial vehicles, which includes light vehicles (160,494 units) and SUVs/MPVs/Pickups (102,716 units). Dongfeng Automobile also produced 163,296 engines and sold 162,231 engines.
3. Others is the total by OEMs that sold less than 45,000 passenger cars and no passenger cars in 2012 including Young Man Automobile Group (45,000 units in 2012), Haima Automobile (44,000 units, excluding FAW Haima, Hawtai Automobile (34,000 units, 100,000 units planned in 2013).

 

<Table 5> 2012 sales in China and 2013 sales plan and details of forecast by major foreign OEM in China
OEM 2012 Sale Volume 2013 Sales Plan
Japanese model Toyota ・ Retail sales 841,000 units (down 4.9% year-on-year, only in mainland China, including imported cars such as Lexus)
・ Hong Kong about 10,000 units
・ Retail sales 900,000 units (only in mainland China, including imported cars such as Lexus)
・ Wholesale over 970,000 units (only in mainland China, excluding imported cars other than Lexus)
  Toyota brand ・ Wholesale 746,000 units (excluding imports)
 Including FAW Toyota Motor Sales 496,000 units, GAC Toyota 250,000 units
・ Wholesale 890,000 units (only in mainland China, excluding imports)
 Including FAW Toyota Motor Sales over 600,000 units, GAC Toyota 290,000 units
Lexus brand ・ 64,000 units (up 14.3% year-on-year) ・ 80,000 units (including HV version 20,000 units)
Nissan Gr. ・ 1.211 million units
(including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)
・ Over 1.336 million units
(including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)
Nissan total ・ *765,000 units (including commercial vehicles, only Nissan/Infiniti brand)
・ Wholesale 1.182 million units (down 5.3% year-on-year, including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)
・ *728,000 units (including commercial vehicles, only Nissan/Infiniti brand)
Nissan brand ・ *752,000 units (including commercial vehicle 16,000 units)
・ 793,000 units
・ *714,000 units (including commercial vehicle 22,000 units)
Infiniti brand ・ *13,000 units
・ 16,000 units (down 16% year-on-year)
・ *14,000 units
Honda ・ Wholesale 632,000 units (including exports/imports)
 Including imports of the Acura and Honda HV about 4,400 units, sales in China of locally made vehicles 598,000 units, exports 29,000 units
・ Wholesale over 750,000 units (including exports/imports)
 Including sales of imported models such as the Acura and Honda HV total of about 50,000 units
Dongfeng Honda ・ 282,000 units (up 10.5% year-on-year) ・ 300,000 units
Guangqi Honda ・ 316,000 units ・ Over 400,000 units
Honda Automobile (China) ・ Wholesale 29,000 units ・ n.a.
Acura ・ *3,786 units
・ 2,300 units (down 42.7% year-on-year)
・ *4,562 units
Mazda ・ Retail sales 187,500 units (down 12.9% year-on-year, including imports) ・ Retail sales 200,000 unit (up 7.0% year-on-year, including imports)
FAW Mazda ・ Retail sales 114,000 units (down 16.1% year-on-year, including imports) ・ Retail sales 110,000 units (including imports)
Changan Mazda ・ Retail sales 73,500 units (down 7.4% year-on-year, including imports) ・ Retail sales 90,000 units (including imports)
Mitsubishi Motors ・ Retail sales 41,000 units (down 38.0% year-on-year)
 Including 23,500 units made by Soueast Motor, and a total of 17,500 units made by GAC Mitsubishi and imports
・ Retail sales 75,000 units (excluding Soueast Motor)
 Including 50,000 units made by GAC Mitsubishi and imports 25,000 units
Suzuki ・ *242,000 units
・ Wholesale 257,000 units (down 16% year-on-year, including Changan Suzuki 170,000 units)
・ *235,000 units
Isuzu ・ *65,000 units (including imports/commercial vehicle)
 Including locally made passenger car 1,865 units
・ *80,000 units (including imports/commercial vehicle)
 Including locally made passenger car 1,300 units
Subaru ・ Retail sales 43,500 units (down 24% year-on-year) ・ Retail sales 57,500 units (up 32% year-on-year)
European model VW Gr. ・ 2.609 million units (only locally made vehicles, including exports)
・ 2.81 million units (up 24.5% year-on-year, including imports/Hong Kong)
 Including imports 189,200 units, commercial vehicle 2,300 units
・ 2.92 million units (only locally made vehicles, including exports)
 Breakdown: Shanghai VW 1.42 million units, FAW-VW 1.5 million units
VW brand ・ *2.173 million units
・ 2.15 million units (up 25% year-on-year, including Hong Kong)
・ *2.398 million units
Audi brand ・ 406,000 units (up 29.6% year-on-year, including imports 83,000 units/Hong Kong 3,000 units)
・ *408,000 units/403,000 units (up 30% year-on-year, only in mainland China)
・ 500,000 units (including the A6L 150,000 units/locally made vehicles over 415,000 units)
・ *472,000 units
Skoda brand ・ *244,000 units
・ 235,700 units (up 7.1% year-on-year, including Hong Kong)
・ *320,000 units
PSA ・ Locally made vehicles 440,000 units (up about 8.88% year-on-year) ・ Locally made vehicles 500,000 units
Dongfeng Peugeot ・ 216,200 units (only locally made vehicles) ・ 237,000 units (only locally made vehicles)
Dongfeng Citroen ・ 223,800 units (only locally made vehicles) ・ 263,000 units (only locally made vehicles)
Changan PSA ・ n.a. (its plant has not started operations) ・ n.a. (its plant has not started operations)
BMW Gr. ・ *311,000 units (including Mini/Rolls-Royce)
・ 326,400 units (up 40.4% year-on-year, including Mini)
・ *347,000 units (including Mini/Rolls-Royce)
BMW ・ *289,000 units
・ 303,000 units (up 39.7% year-on-year, including 147,000 units made in China, only in mainland China)
・ *322,000 units
Mini ・ *22,000 units
・ 23,400 units
・ *24,000 units
Daimler ・ *231,000 units (including Benz/smart/Denza and commercial vehicle)
・ 206,000 units (up about 4% year-on-year, only in mainland China, including smart/AMG/Maybach) (Note 3)
・ *293,000 units (including Benz/smart/Denza and commercial vehicle)
・ 274,000 units (up about 33% year-on-year, including smart)
Benz brand ・ Retail sales 196,000 units (up 1.5% year-on-year, including smart/commercial vehicle, only in mainland China)
・ *220,000 units
・ Retail sales about 216,000 units (up 10% year-on-year, including smart/commercial vehicle, only in mainland China)
・ *277,000 units
smart brand ・ *11,000 units
・ 15,680 units (up 45%)
・ *12,000 units
Denza brand ・ n.a. (Operation has not started) ・ *4,188 units
Renault ・ *25,000 units (including Renault-Samsung 24,000 units)
・ 29,700 units (up 22.4% year-on-year, including Samsung)
・ *28,000 units (including Renault-Samsung 26,000 units)
Volvo Car ・ 42,000 units (down 10.9% year-on-year) ・ 60,000 units
JLR ・ *59,000 units
・ 73,000 units (up 74% year-on-year)
・ *70,000 units
Jaguar ・ *5,160 units ・ *5,722 units
Land Rover ・ *54,000 units ・ *64,000 units
Fiat Gr. ・ *46,500 units (including Alfa Romeo/Ferrari/Maserati) ・ *53,600 units (including Alfa Romeo/Ferrari/Maserati)
Fiat brand ・ *1,195 units ・ *4,477 units
Iveco brand ・ *44,186 units ・ *47,359 units
US model GM ・ Wholesale 2.836 million units (up 11.3% year-on-year, including Wuling/ Baojun models and exports) ・ Wholesale over 3.078 million units (including Wuling/ Baojun models, exports 100,000 units)
Shanghai GM ・ Wholesale 1.364 million units ・ Wholesale over 1.5 million units
SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile ・ Wholesale 1.486 million units (including mini trucks) ・ Wholesale 1.5 million units (including mini trucks)
FAW-GM ・ Wholesale 94,000 units (only passenger car) ・ Wholesale 78,000 units (including commercial vehicle)
Opel ・ *173,000 units ・ *190,000 units
Ford Gr. ・ 627,000 units (including imports, up 21% year-on-year)
 Including passenger car 427,000 units (up 31% year-on-year)
・ n.a.
・ *469,000 units (including Lincoln/Ford, imports) ・ *598,000 units (including Lincoln/Ford, imports)
Ford brand ・ 627,000 units (up 21% year-on-year, including 418,500 units made by Changan Ford)
・ *468,000 units
・ n.a. (600,000 units made by Changan Ford)
・ *597,000 units
Jiangxi brand ・ 200,000 units (up 3% year-on-year) ・ n.a.
Chrysler Gr. ・ *53,500 units ・ *78,400 units
Jeep brand ・ *21,700 units
・ Up 107% year-on-year (Grand Cherokee up 68%, Wrangler up 76%, Patriot/Compass up by a total of 124%)
・ *15,300 units
Chrysler brand ・ *145 units (including 50 units made by Soueast Motor) ・ *106 units
Dodge brand ・ *32,000 units (Sales of models made by Soueast Motor were discontinued) ・ *63,000 units
Korean model Hyundai-Kia Gr. ・ 1.34 million units (only locally made vehicles)
・ 1.392 million units (up 14.2% year-on-year, including imports 52,000 units)
・ 1.52 million units (only locally made vehicles)
Hyundai ・ Locally made vehicle 860,000 units ・ Locally made vehicle 1 million units
Kia ・ Locally made vehicle 480,000 units ・ Locally made vehicle 520,000 units
Ssangyong ・ *1,999 units ・ *1,603 units/13,000 units
Taiwan model Yulon ・ 31,000 units (sales 6.485 billion RMB) ・ 55,000-60,000 units (sales over 9 billion RMB)
Note 1. Figures with * in 2012 sales volume and 2013 sales plan represent forecast by LMC Automotive in January 2013. Figures without * in the 2013 sales volume plan/forecast are based on an original survey by MarkLines.
2. Original brand models by foreign OEM affiliated joint ventures such as Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Car's Venucia and SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile's Baojun are included in foreign OEMs. In the above table, sales volume of imported vehicles and sales volume outside mainland China including Hong Kong are included. With these differences in statistical standard, the above Table, and Table 2 and Table 4 do not necessarily agree.
3. Including S-class 33,000 units (up 7% year-on-year), B-class 2,760 units, GLK-class up 27%, C-class up 9%, and E-class up 4%.

 

 



Production Forecast by LMC Automotive: Chinese production forecast by make

(LMC Automotive、February 2013)

 LMC Automotive forecasted on February 2013 that Chinese Light Vehicle production will increase by 9.9% y/y to 20.03 million in 2013. The growth rate is forecasted to be greater than the 2012 production's scale, which is 6.4%. This is because 2013's rate is assumed to increase proportionally to the increase of the production.

Chinese light vehicles sales forecast by make

(Units)
SALES GROUP GLOBAL MAKE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total 16,752,184 17,123,646 18,223,536 20,028,612 23,199,447 26,010,333 28,507,313
Beiqi Foton Foton 582,180 499,906 515,664 534,829 609,231 704,556 820,516
BMW Group BMW 55,582 98,228 150,052 200,489 267,690 307,203 360,614
Brilliance Jinbei Brilliance 168,670 123,808 170,438 180,470 200,491 198,805 215,588
Jinbei 288,180 316,999 314,664 351,575 404,696 458,411 491,904
Brilliance Jinbei Sub-total 456,850 440,807 485,102 532,045 605,187 657,216 707,492
BYD Auto BYD 521,232 449,425 455,444 492,519 587,941 704,882 786,550
Denza 0 0 0 2,121 11,261 16,192 20,911
BYD Auto Sub-total 521,232 449,425 455,444 494,640 599,202 721,074 807,461
Changan Automobile
Group
Chana 1,104,089 855,051 854,089 951,504 1,171,288 1,319,592 1,468,092
Changhe 60,657 45,661 34,609 52,032 65,511 72,083 76,145
Hafei 215,558 122,240 62,228 89,133 106,734 122,527 133,765
Changan Automobile Group Sub-total 1,380,304 1,022,952 950,926 1,092,669 1,343,533 1,514,202 1,678,002
Chery Group Chery 548,161 554,732 499,944 458,207 460,259 461,386 469,047
Guanzhi 0 0 0 17,495 31,920 33,407 40,073
Karry 88,746 47,540 32,184 45,927 67,176 79,595 87,404
Qoros 0 0 0 0 9,629 21,500 24,942
Rely 11,187 9,922 4,311 15,729 29,372 44,457 51,034
Riich 43,830 25,229 27,512 58,455 113,949 150,337 184,947
Chery Group Sub-total 691,924 637,423 563,951 595,813 712,305 790,682 857,447
Daimler Group Mercedes-Benz 50,272 90,601 104,355 139,407 172,105 255,261 301,444
Dongfeng Motor DF Honda 0 0 14,160 25,850 31,744 47,734 57,353
Dianyue 0 0 0 0 0 2,948 3,475
Dongfeng 670,201 739,065 746,869 785,796 894,953 1,007,578 1,113,871
Venucia 0 0 45,141 46,587 59,871 71,794 81,824
Dongfeng Motor Sub-total 670,201 739,065 806,170 858,233 986,568 1,130,054 1,256,523
FAW Group FAW 490,620 395,873 333,466 411,486 494,372 538,888 548,934
FAW-Toyota 0 0 0 4,002 14,558 15,566 17,035
Hongqi 180 0 527 1,504 1,790 2,277 2,519
Kaili 0 0 0 407 3,054 4,827 7,635
Xiali 132,543 138,576 92,417 49,286 0 0 0
FAW Group Sub-total 623,343 534,449 426,410 466,685 513,774 561,558 576,123
Fiat-Chrysler Group Dodge 1,131 248 13,546 49,324 58,403 72,972 79,886
Fiat 0 0 0 3,213 61,910 119,829 146,845
Iveco 36,808 41,241 39,719 47,361 52,555 57,601 60,814
Jeep 0 0 0 0 10,556 49,948 95,027
Fiat-Chrysler Group Sub-total 37,939 41,489 53,265 99,898 183,424 300,350 382,572
Ford Group Ford 353,345 373,838 477,551 587,185 702,824 809,252 921,904
Geely Group Emgrand 71,569 114,324 160,996 199,897 242,750 306,543 330,741
Englon 51,742 98,028 154,235 178,324 182,110 187,601 193,917
Geely 247,575 111,346 0 0 0 0 0
Gleagle 41,391 111,778 179,418 142,017 181,476 225,461 250,505
Maple 4,499 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volvo 17,004 16,769 5,529 10,041 56,474 100,234 174,778
Geely Group Sub-total 433,780 452,245 500,178 530,279 662,810 819,839 949,941
General Motors
Group
Buick 244,028 257,808 233,900 303,768 348,820 423,350 472,448
Cadillac 5,355 7,249 6,546 9,137 15,354 21,847 62,124
Chevrolet/ Daewoo 773,152 867,996 952,833 998,559 1,057,259 1,148,735 1,189,957
Holden 3,585 2,188 1,307 310 0 0 0
Opel 84,571 138,943 172,722 182,726 206,871 242,804 254,207
General Motors Group Sub-total 1,110,691 1,274,184 1,367,308 1,494,500 1,628,304 1,836,736 1,978,736
Great Wall Motor Great Wall 398,692 486,062 624,183 709,444 849,636 916,251 1,001,989
Honda Group Honda 677,881 621,662 584,514 575,948 624,349 729,126 793,132
Hyundai Group Hyundai 704,441 743,888 855,307 977,966 1,110,005 1,192,320 1,304,445
Kia 338,362 431,265 485,268 508,250 581,386 647,011 674,749
Hyundai Group Sub-total 1,042,803 1,175,153 1,340,575 1,486,216 1,691,391 1,839,331 1,979,194
Isuzu Motors Isuzu 47,150 64,594 64,852 79,752 91,833 99,902 107,146
Jianghuai Automotive JAC 407,068 419,896 421,894 446,792 523,383 578,921 636,427
Mazda Motors Mazda 228,090 212,609 169,518 171,588 180,072 222,891 263,563
Mitsubishi Motors Mitsubishi 44,204 40,161 25,902 52,893 85,387 98,675 114,942
PSA Group Citroen 223,116 231,833 226,109 242,427 258,882 280,835 299,686
Peugeot 153,215 174,102 217,354 250,325 308,694 348,270 371,521
PSA Group Sub-total 376,331 405,935 443,463 492,752 567,576 629,105 671,207
Renault-Nissan
Group
Infiniti 0 0 0 0 0 19,861 38,076
Nissan 757,645 891,264 747,581 778,322 864,538 937,121 1,019,191
Renault-Nissan Group Sub-total 757,645 891,264 747,581 778,322 864,538 956,982 1,057,267
SAIC Group Baojun 0 21,968 91,555 144,259 185,563 217,204 236,245
Maxus 0 3,164 7,582 23,574 29,591 36,409 44,430
MG Mingjue 29,278 49,573 72,147 79,848 125,484 151,269 178,239
Roewe 131,070 107,633 123,535 149,367 183,718 210,429 233,779
SAIC 2,797 652 0 0 0 0 0
Wuling 1,179,852 1,192,411 1,383,787 1,467,520 1,675,899 1,826,825 1,954,769
SAIC Group Sub-total 1,342,997 1,375,401 1,678,606 1,864,568 2,200,255 2,442,136 2,647,462
Suzuki Group Suzuki 280,740 298,972 250,007 241,808 243,391 267,121 291,314
Tata Group Jaguar 0 0 0 0 0 0 11,995
Land Rover 0 0 0 0 8,460 58,725 69,791
Tata Group Sub-total 0 0 0 0 8,460 58,725 81,786
Toyota Group Daihatsu 0 0 0 0 0 0 38,287
Toyota 773,677 800,797 752,470 760,536 822,656 857,936 894,578
Toyota Group Sub-total 773,677 800,797 752,470 760,536 822,656 857,936 932,865
Volkswagen Group Audi 210,482 258,556 333,433 400,617 488,837 523,569 543,142
Skoda 196,703 218,945 230,481 316,449 380,597 400,859 442,256
Volkswagen 1,492,444 1,718,723 2,060,929 2,207,137 2,498,021 2,691,546 2,876,597
Volkswagen Group Sub-total 1,899,629 2,196,224 2,624,843 2,924,203 3,367,455 3,615,974 3,861,995
Other Luxgen 0 7,079 32,103 55,705 59,631 66,932 74,380
Other Chinese
Manufacturers
Beijing 59,134 68,871 113,949 143,634 175,665 198,680 210,703
Beijing Hyundai 0 0 0 452 1,294 2,358 2,872
Changfeng 28,172 24,451 18,196 37,344 50,462 54,463 59,817
China Other 76,155 89,668 127,038 114,184 126,313 134,668 152,426
Everus 0 25,182 23,881 25,268 34,743 37,817 40,187
Feidie 7,519 5,717 5,453 15,843 16,348 16,914 17,162
Fstar 69,991 72,403 50,305 53,882 61,826 71,719 82,355
Golden Dragon 10,449 10,796 14,028 14,811 17,940 22,465 27,685
Gonow 40,611 12,760 13,833 19,144 21,403 23,684 26,259
Guangzhou 0 16,723 32,896 46,456 63,032 72,873 87,821
Haima 136,022 152,018 129,459 142,353 178,916 197,488 194,734
Hawtai 81,300 18,357 34,717 47,180 48,369 50,286 51,586
Heibao 75,800 36,331 0 0 0 0 0
Huanghai 17,002 16,458 12,979 16,283 17,010 11,642 12,024
Jiangnan 31,729 32,536 27,332 26,240 28,276 28,354 26,812
JMC 130,997 133,937 147,292 156,359 175,393 194,282 209,489
Kaima 98,531 64,935 66,632 65,371 72,132 86,372 105,029
King Long 13,399 14,483 15,916 16,274 16,572 17,654 18,557
Landwind 14,063 13,042 13,368 13,654 15,855 13,368 12,139
Lifan 116,621 178,872 243,026 221,998 243,569 255,949 267,398
Nanjun 36,530 34,464 28,586 41,011 46,265 51,401 53,624
Shaanxi Auto 3,546 8,759 8,044 12,169 14,060 15,612 16,840
Sichuan 4,600 11,813 6,867 11,785 10,758 11,410 11,646
Soueast 85,075 78,452 85,515 86,023 91,547 92,941 96,713
TAIC 1,067 1,316 765 0 0 0 0
Wuzheng 21,297 22,939 27,917 30,257 32,699 38,975 41,577
Yangzi 2,184 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yaxing 524 1,128 725 844 891 855 896
Youngman Lotus 35,015 33,426 56,194 59,627 72,031 83,200 87,820
Yuantong 5,102 3,456 4,704 5,683 6,600 7,159 7,644
Yuejin 71,487 70,635 90,467 88,796 93,881 102,783 111,254
Yutong 3,762 4,886 4,261 3,398 3,704 3,805 3,839
Zhongxing 64,854 61,755 63,221 69,957 81,661 88,886 93,273
Zibo 61,177 48,935 49,406 58,747 67,914 74,634 79,611
Zotye 103,919 103,721 89,677 116,386 145,348 159,645 184,077
Other Chinese Manufacturers Sub-total 1,507,634 1,473,225 1,606,649 1,761,413 2,032,477 2,222,342 2,393,869
Source:LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Production Forecast (February, 2013)"
Note 1. Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.
2. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.
3. For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.

<Automotive Industry Portal MarkLines>