Chinese OEM sales outlook 2013
Passenger cars to surpass 18 million units and commercial vehicles to exceed 3.3 million units
According to each OEM's announcement and MarkLines' original survey conducted at the end of February 2013, the 2013 auto sales (including exports, but not imports) planned by each OEM will total 21.3 million units. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars will exceed 18 million units and those of commercial vehicles will surpass 3.3 million units. This figure is slightly higher compared to the forecast by China's government-affiliated automotive manufacturers association, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) (total vehicle sales: 20.65 million units including 16.8 million passenger cars) and by a government-affiliated think tank, State Information Center of China (total vehicle sales will increase by about 8% year-on-year to about 20.85 million units).
Major foreign OEMs plan to sell 13.2 million units (many of the OEMs include imports in their forecast), up by more than 12% year-on-year, in China in 2013. This forecast is more than 4 points higher than CAAM's forecast of about 8%, which does not include imports. Japanese OEMs plan to increase their sales volume by 11.4% year-on-year.
Concerning the import/export of vehicles, China is estimated to export 1.3 million vehicles and to import 1.45 million units in 2013.
Moreover, according to a medium-/long-term forecast, China's vehicle sales will increase up to 30 million units in 2020.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China's announcement on March 8, 2013, vehicle ownership in China has already amounted to 109.44 million units (including 93.09 million units privately owned) at the end of 2012, which was more than 20 units per 100 households; this ratio is expected to increase further to about 60 units per 100 households in ten years, or in 2022 (cited by the statement in January 2013 of Deputy Researcher (or saying "Research Associate") Wang Junxiu from "Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences", an editor of the blue book for China's automotive industry, "Annual Report on Development of Automotive Society in China (2012-2013").
LMC Automotive's forecast on January 2013 indicated that the Chinese Light Vehicle sales (shipment + imports) will increase by 10.3 % y/y to 21.01 million units in 2013, to 29.68 million units in 2016. The 2013 growth rate will be above that of 2012 sales, 5.9%, because Chinese economic situation is improving as changes in political leadership have always led to government-driven stimulus in the past. Although, the company points out: "(for the 2013 market), downside risks remain with exports to the volatile European and USA markets, and also with political tension between China and Japan "
Related Reports: Sales in China rose 4.3% to 19.31 million units in 2012 (Mar. 2013)
Forecast of China's auto market: sales volume of vehicle to surpass 20 million units in 2013 and to increase up to 30 million in 2020
CAAM forecasts that the 2013 auto sales volume in China will amount to about 20.65 million units. Among them, exports of vehicles made in China will be 1.3 million units and sales of vehicles in China will be about 19.35 million units (announced in January 2013).
In the meantime, according to the 2013 auto sale volume forecast announced in January 2013 by State Information Center of China, total vehicle sales in China will increase by about 8% year-on-year to about 20.85 million units, which is almost the same as the forecast (20.65 million units) by CAAM.
The improvement of China's economy in 2013 compared to the previous two years when the growth of vehicle sales was low is a positive factor and predicator for the relatively high growth forecast.
CAAM's 2013 sales volume forecast by vehicle type is 16.8 million passenger cars (up about 8% year-on-year) and 3.85 million units of commercial vehicles including chassis (up about 1% year-on-year).
The forecast by type of passenger cars is as follows: 2.46 million SUVs (up 23.0%, the highest year-on-year increase), 11.55 million sedans and hatchbacks (up 7.5%), 2.3 million units of minivans (up 1.9%), all of which are expected to register positive growth, whereas MPVs are estimated to post a 0.7% year-on-year negative growth to 490,000 units.
On the other hand, among commercial vehicles (including chassis), the sales volume of buses will increase to 520,000 units (up 2.5% year-on-year), the growth rate of which is expected to shrink from 4.0% in the previous year. In the meantime, sales volume of trucks will increase to 3.33 million units (up 0.8%), which is estimated to post positive growth compared to negative growth (minus 6.8%) in the previous year. The growth of construction investment in infrastructures due partly to the enhanced urbanization of agricultural villages is a major positive factor.
The 2013 transaction volume in the used car market in China is expected to increase from about 4.8 million units in the previous year to 6.0 million to 6.5 million units (announced by China Automobile Dealers Association in January 2013).
In the long term, under the 8-year economic growth target announced by the Chinese government in November 2012, which includes a national per capita income-doubling plan for 2020 compared to 2010, with rising income levels, the vehicle market in China is expected to continue steady growth and vehicle sales are estimated to increase up to 30 million units in 2020 (according to the statement by GM China's President Bob Socia on January 14, 2013).
CAAM forecasts that the year-on-year growth of vehicle sales volume will remain at about 8% in the next 10 years or so (announced in January 2013).
<Table 1> Sales volume of new vehicles in China and forecast by vehicle type
|New vehicle sales (Note 1)||(Figures included)||Production in China|
|Volume||Increase/Decrease rate (year-on-year)||Export volume||Volume|
|2011||2012||2013 (forecast)||2011||2012||2013 (forecast)||2011||2012||2011||2012|
|2/3box (Note 2)||10,123||10,745||11,550||6.6%||6.1%||7.5%||332||479||10,138||10,767|
|Minivan (Note 3)||2,258||2,257||2,300||-9.4%||-0.1%||1.9%||36||48||2,239||2,266|
|Passenger car total||14,472||15,495||16,800||5.2%||7.1%||8.4%||476||661||14,485||15,524|
|Grand total (Note 4)||18,505||19,306||20,650||2.5%||4.3%||7.0%||814||1,056||18,419||19,272|
|Note 1.||New vehicle sales include exports, but not imports.|
|2.||2/3box includes sedans and hatchbacks.|
|3.||Minivan means a minivan style passenger car of which overall length is 3.5 meters or shorter, and of which displacement is 1.0-liter or smaller. Slightly larger models with displacement over 1.0-liter (1.1- to 1.3-liter) have been launched in recent years.|
|4.||The 2013 sales volume of 20.65 million units (factory shipment base) is estimate by CAAM.|
2013 sales plan by each Chinese OEM: 21.3 million vehicles and more than 18 million passenger cars according to survey and announcements
According to the announcement of each OEM in China, MarkLines' original survey, and media reports, the 2013 vehicle sales volume in China (wholesale/factory shipment basis) amounts to 21.3 million units, which is slightly higher than the forecast (20.65 million units) announced by CAAM in January 2013.
Among the above figures, the 2013 sales volume by the 2012 top 10 OEMs in sales volume is planned to exceed 19.5 million units, which is more than 90% (91.6% concentration rate (total of the market share)) of the total (over 21.3 million units) of all the OEMs in China. When this target is achieved, the Chinese government will fulfill one of its objectives of the restructuring of the automotive industry (corporations), in which it will boost the concentration rate in production/sales volume of the top 10 OEMs to more than 90%.
Among the OEM groups, OEM groups that plan to sell more than 2 million units a year include three OEMs that sold 2 million units in 2012 - SAIC (4.46 million units in 2012/planning 4.9 million units in 2013), Dongfeng Motor Corp. (3.08 million units/3.32 million units in 2013), and FAW (2.65 million units in 2012/over 3.55 million units in 2013) - and Changan Automobile Group (1.96 million units in 2012/over 2.1 million units) and BAIC Group (1.69 million units in 2012/over 2 million units in 2013) aim to join the major core OEM groups.
When we compare the 2013 plan with the previous year, FAW, which is following Dongfeng Motor Corp., plans to increase sales volume by 34%, the highest. This is because FAW is targeting to maintain the previously set target. Guangzhou Automobile, which is currently strengthening its joint ventures/alliances with Honda/Toyota, and Fiat-Chrysler Gr., Mitsubishi Motors, and further with Chery Automobile is planning to increase its sales volume by as much as 29.2%. Chery Automobile, which is currently building a joint venture production structure with each of JLR (Jaguar/Land Rover), which is under the umbrella of Tata, and Israel-based Quantum LLC in Jiangsu Province, plans to increase sales volume by 24.3%. BAIC Group, which acquired Saab technology and aims to expand business through its own brand of passenger cars, plans to increase by 18.3%. JAC, Brilliance Auto, and Geely Holding Group aims to achieve a high growth of 19.2%, 17.6%, and 13.9%, respectively.
Concerning sales of passenger cars (refer to the table 4), the 2013 planned sales volume of each OEM amounts to 18 million units, which is much higher than CAAM's forecast of 16.8 million units.
Among OEM groups (refer to the Table 4), SAIC plans to sell 4.5 million passenger cars, which is the largest, FAW (over 3.2 million units), Dongfeng Motor Corp. (over 2.91 million units), and Changan Automobile (over 2.1 million units); the 2012 top 4 OEMs in sales volume each plans to sell more than 2 million cars.
Under the 2013 sales plans by passenger car manufacturer (refer to the Table 4), six OEMs such FAW-VW (1.5 million units), Shanghai GM (over 1.5 million units), Shanghai VW (1.42 million), SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile (over 1.3 million units), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle (1 million units), and Beijing Hyundai Motor (over 1 million units) target to sell more than 1 million units in 2013.
<Table 2> China OEM Group: 2013 new vehicle sales plan and the 2011-2012 sales volume
|Rank||OEM group (Note 1)||New vehicle sales (Note 2)|
|Sales volume||Sales plan|
|2||Dongfeng Motor Corp.||3,059||3,078||3,320||7.8%|
|3||FAW||2,606||2,649||Over 3,550||Over 34.0%|
|4||Changan Automobile Group||2,009||1,956||Over 2,100||Over 7.3%|
|5||BAIC Group||1,526||1,691||Over 2,000||Over 18.3%|
|6||Guangzhou Automobile||740||712||Over 920||Over 29.2%|
|7||Brilliance Auto (Brilliance)||567||638||750||17.6%|
|8||Great Wall Motor||487||625||700||12.1%|
|10||Geely Holding Group||433||491||560||13.9%|
|11||JAC (Jianghuai Automobile Group)||495||487||Over 580||Over 19.2%|
|12||BYD Auto||449||456||Over 500||Over 9.6%|
|13||Lifan Industry (Group)||202||270||Over 300||Over 11.1%|
|14||Fujian Motor||193||193||Over 230||-|
|15||China National Heavy Duty Truck Group||159||138||152||10.3%|
|17||Shaanxi Automotive Group||119||95||106||12.1%|
|Others (Note 3)||626||591||n.a.||-|
|Total||18,505||19,306||Over 21,300 (Note 4)||Over 9.8%|
|Note 1.||OEMs in descending order of 2012 sales volume. Sales volume and sales plan in the 2013 new vehicle sales plan is on a factory shipment (wholesale) basis.|
|2.||New vehicle sales do not include imports but exports. Commercial vehicle includes chassis.|
|3.||"Others" is the total by OEMs that sold less than 70,000 units in 2012.|
|4.||2013 plan by "Others" includes a total of 180,000 units by Hawtai Automobile Group (100,000 units in 2013), Baotou Beiben Heavy-Duty Truck (35,000 units), and Chengdu Dayun Automobile Group (45,000 units), which announced their 2013 plan.|
▽Supplement: Detailed information of the above OEMs' figures included
|OEM group||Information related to the 2013 sales plan|
|SAIC||▽Group's sales plan: 4.9 million units * SAIC Motor Commercial Vehicle Co. 200,000 units (8% of them are to be exported) of which Nanjing Iveco 155,000 units (including Yuejing brand model 115,000 units), SAIC-Iveco-Hongyan 30,000 units (up 76% year-on-year, heavy commercial vehicle)|
|Dongfeng Motor Corp.||▽Group sales plan: 3.32 million units * DFL, Commercial Vehicle Co.: over 180,000 units (medium/heavy commercial vehicle, including Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor 35,000 units) * Dongfeng Automobile: 294,000 units * DFL, Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle: 1 million units|
|FAW||▽Group sales plan: over 3.55 million units * FAW Jiefang Automotive (commercial vehicle only): 179,000 units Figures included: Medium/heavy truck 169,000 units (Their marketshare 17.5%, the J6 series 84,000 units), Light truck 10,000 units (the JL01 1,000 units, "Huwei" light truck 9,000 units) * Passenger car: over 3.2 million units|
|Changan Automobile Group||▽Group sales plan: over 2.1 million units|
|BAIC Group||▽Group sales plan: 2 to 2.1 million units * Beiqi Foton Motor: 742,000 units. Including Auman 120,000 units. Exports to increase by 17.8% year-on-year.|
|Guangzhou Automobile Group||▽Group sales plan: over 920,000 units|
|Brilliance Auto (Brilliance)||▽Group sales plan: 750,000 units (up to 770,000 units) Including exports of locally manufactured vehicle 70,000 units/sets (including KD kits)|
|Great Wall Motor||▽Group sales plan: 700,000 units * Export: 160,000 units|
|Chery Automobile||▽Group sales plan: 700,000 units * Passenger car: 650,000 units, commercial vehicle: 50,000 units Including new-energy vehicle such as PHV and EV 1,000 units|
|JAC||▽Group sales plan: over 580,000 units * Passenger car: 300,000 units, heavy truck 30,000 units * Export plan: 70,000 units (figures included)|
|BYD Auto||▽Group sales plan: over 500,000 units * Passenger car: 500,000 units|
|China National Heavy Duty Truck Group||▽Group sales plan: 152,000 units * Light truck: 25,000-30,000 units|
|Shaanxi Automotive Group||▽Group sales plan: 106,000 units * Heavy truck: 85,000 units|
Note: For the 2013 passenger car sales plan by passenger car manufacturers under the umbrella of major Chinese OEM groups, refer to Table 4 "Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)".
The 2013 sales plan in China and forecast by major foreign OEM
According to MarkLines' original survey and announcements by foreign OEMs and media reports at the end of February 2013, major foreign OEMs plan to sell 13.2 million units in 2013 (many of these OEMs include imports). This is an increase of more than 12% year-on-year, which is more than 4 points higher than the growth forecast by specialized institutions such as CAAM and State Information Center of about 8% (excluding imports).
The sales target of each brand by country/region is as follows: the year-on-year growth rate is higher for European vehicles (up 13.8%) and Korean vehicles (up 13.4%) and the rate for Japanese vehicles is 11.4%, which is more than 2 points lower than that of European/Korean models and 0.4 points lower than that of US models (up 11.8%).
Among OEMs, the most ambitious year-on-year increase target is 46.5% by Chrysler, US OEM that aims to rebuild its business in China, and 82.9% by one Japanese OEM, Mitsubishi Motors. Other OEMs that target as high as 20% growth rate include two Japanese OEMs - Subaru (Fuji Heavy Industries, up 32.2%) and Isuzu (up 23.1%), two European OEMs, Volvo Car (up 28%) and Daimler (up 26.8%), and one US OEM, Ford (up 27.5%).
Among three major Japanese OEMs, Honda targets a high growth (up 18.7% year-on-year, wholesale/including imports), whereas Nissan (up 10.3% year-on-year, including light vehicles and models of its joint venture, Dongfeng/Venucia brand) and Toyota (up 7% year-on-year, retail sale, including imports) target a relatively moderate growth. Suzuki's target is minus 2.9% growth.
VW group has been posting solid results and boosting its share of the passenger car market in China in recent years. The Group targets a high growth of about 12% (including imports). PSA, whose group has recently generated poor results, plans to increase its sales substantially by 16.3% year-on-year including imports; its target growth rate is higher than that of BMW Group (up 11.6% year-on-year, including imports of Mini/Rolls-Royce models). JLR Group, which won approval for joint production with Chery and is currently preparing local production, plans to boost combined sales with Jaguar and Land Rover by 16.7% year-on-year.
Including its joint venture brands (Wuling/Baojun) in China, which have been registering strong results, GM has the largest share of the passenger car market in China, planning to increase its sales volume by 8.5%, which is nearly the same as the growth of the entire market in China.
<Table 3> 2012 sales in China and the 2013 sales plan and forecast by brand by major foreign OEM (Group)
|OEM||Sales volume (1,000 units)||Remarks (Volume)|
|Sales volume||Sales volume plan/ forecast||Year-on-year increase/ decrease|
|Japanese brand||Toyota||841||900||7.0%||Retail sale. Only mainland China, including exports such as Lexus|
|Nissan Gr.||1,211||1,336||10.3%||Including Dongfeng/Venucia brand, passenger car and LCV|
|Honda||632||750-||18.7%||Wholesale, including exports/imports|
|Mazda||187||200||7.0%||Retail sale, including imports|
|Mitsubishi Motors||41||75||82.9%||Retail sale|
|Isuzu||*65||*80||23.1%||Including imports/commercial vehicle|
|European brand||VW Gr.||2,609||2,920||11.9%||Only locally made models (Shanghai VW/FAW-VW), including exports|
|BMW Gr.||*311||*347||11.6%||Including imports (Mini/Rolls-Royce)|
|Daimler||*231||*293||26.8%||Including imports (Benz/smart/Denza), commercial vehicle|
|US brand||GM||2,836||3,078||8.5%||Wholesale, including Wuling /Baojun model, export of 100,000 units|
|Korean brand||Hyundai-Kia Gr.||1,340||1,520||13.4%||Including only locally made vehicles, including exports|
|Note 1.||Figures with * in 2012 sales volume and 2013 sales plan represent forecast by LMC Automotive in January 2013. Figures without * in the 2013 sales volume plan/forecast are based on an original survey by MarkLines.|
|2.||LMC Automotive survey includes sales volume of imported vehicles and sales volume outside mainland China including Hong Kong. With these differences in statistical standards, the above Table, and the previous Table 2 "China OEM Group: 2013 new vehicle sales plan and the 2011-2012 sales volume (factory shipment basis)" and Table 4 "Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)" do not necessarily agree.|
Forecast for 2013 China's import and export: Exports to increase by 23% to 1.3 million units while imports to increase by 28% to 1.45 million units
According to CAAM's forecast, the 2013 imports and exports of Chinese vehicles will each grow by more than 20% year-on-year.
The 2013 exports of passenger cars and commercial vehicles (including chassis) made in China is estimated to grow by about 23% year-on-year to 1.3 million units. Under the 2013 export plan by major OEMs, Chery Automobile, which is the largest exporter of passenger cars in the previous year, plans to export 180,000 passenger cars, nearly the same level as the previous year (182,000 units). Geely Holding Group, which is the second largest exporter in 2012, plans to expand overseas markets to North Africa/East Europe/Central Asia, though it still has not announced its plan (100,000 units in 2012). Geely Holding Group will further expand the existing market including Russia/Iraq by strengthening introduction of new models. Geely Holding Group focuses on the construction of CKD plants in Egypt/Iran/Belarus/Algeria in 2013, pressing ahead with the cultivation of new markets.
On the other hand, the 2013 imports of passenger cars and commercial vehicles are estimated to be about 1.45 million units, up about 28% year-on-year. The increase in inventory in the fourth quarter of 2012, due particularly to slumping sales of Japanese models, is among the negative factors for imports of vehicles in 2013. Yet, on the whole, the favorable turn of the Chinese economy is expected to boost sales of imported vehicles substantially to an estimated 28% positive growth. China Automotive News on January 7, 2013 reported that 27 new models are scheduled to be launched in the imported vehicle market in China in 2013.
<Table 4> Sales volume and the 2013 plan by Chinese passenger car group (manufacturer)
|OEM||Passenger car sales volume (unit)||Passenger car sales plan (Note 1)|
|2011||2012||2013 (1,000 units)||Remarks (figures included and others)|
|Shanghai VW||1,165,827||1,280,008||1,420||VW 1.12 million units, Skoda brand 300,000 units|
|Shanghai GM||1,185,585||1,363,532||Over 1,500||Chevrolet 700,000 units. Buick 800,000 units (the new Excelle 300,000 units)|
|SAIC-GM-Wuling||1,217,882||1,322,585||Over 1,350||1.5 million units including the Baojun over 120,000 units and mini trucks|
|SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle||162,161||200,318||240||E50 (EV) 1,000 units|
|Dongfeng Motor Corp.||2,329,039||2,455,231||Over 2,910|
|Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Automobile||404,139||440,028||507.5-547.5||Citroen over 263,000 units, Peugeot over about 237,000 units|
|Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Car||808,588||772,995||1,000||93,000 units of Venucia joint venture models|
|Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile||51,509||47,603||121||Including commercial vehicles. 10,000 units (figures included) of exports including commercial vehicles|
|Dongfeng Automobile (Note 2)||-||1,192||173||Including light/mini commercial vehicles. Total of 294,000 units including Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile|
|Dongfeng Yulon Motor||7,058||31,106||55|
|Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor||100,678||136,501||180|
|Dongfeng Yu'an||243,053||202,991||Over 203||To surpass the 2012 actual sales, higher growth than the other OEM's average growth rate|
|Dongfeng Motor Corp. Passenger Vehicle||26,028||60,201||100||Only Fengshen models|
|FAW Group||2,314,182||2,413,455||Over 3,200|
|FAW-VW||1,034,888||1,328,888||1,500||VW 940,000 units (the new Bora/the new Jetta over 450,000 units), Audi over 415,000 units (the Q 35,000 units, the A6L 165,000 units)|
|FAW Toyota Motor||529,046||495,477||600||Including a very small number of commercial vehicles and medium buses, the Coaster (4,833 units in 2012)|
|Tianjin FAW Xiali||253,035||185,018||400||Based on MarkLines' original survey|
|FAW-GM||174||94||78||Including light commercial vehicles|
|FAW Jilin Automobile||103,645||90,942||175||Including light/mini commercial vehicles|
|FAW Car||241,362||184,212||400||Based on MarkLines' original survey|
|FAW Haima||151,716||128,747||225||the Haima 3 100,000 units|
|Tianjin Meiya Automobile||316||77||n.a.|
|Changan Automobile Group||1,576,033||1,596,937||Over 2,100|
|Changan Suzuki||220,008||170,037||290 and over||To start original brand models in 2013|
|Changan Mazda||90||Including a small number of imported vehicles (which are not included in the actual sales volume)|
|Jiangling Motor Holding||24,810||24,764||n.a.|
|Changhe Automobile||119,958||113,465||160||Including Changhe Suzuki Automobile. EV 5,000 units|
|BAIC Group (Beijing Automotive Group)||846,787||1,037,632||Over 1,190|
|Beijing Benz||77,795||93,664||103||Based on MarkLines' original survey|
|Beijing Hyundai Motor||739,800||859,595||1,000|
|Beiqi Foton Motor||8,109||7,189||742||Nearly all commercial vehicles|
|Beijing Automobile Works||11,067||10,164||70||Including light commercial vehicles|
|BAIC Motor||10,016||67,020||Over 70||Total of 28,000 units of Shenbao brand (C70/C50/B40), which will be launched in 2013|
|Guangzhou Automobile Group||721,095||680,027||Over 920|
|Guangqi Honda||362,294||316,405||Over 400|
|GAC Motor||17,006||38,780||80||the Trumpchi 65,000 units|
|Former GAC Changfeng Motor||31,196||19,915||-||Operation was transferred and integrated to GAC Motor in September 2012|
|Honda Automobile (China)||24,249||29,034||n.a.|
|Chery Automobile||634,311||550,203||570-600||Up to 420,000 units in China and up to 180,000 units of exports|
|Geely Holding Group||432,752||491,444||560|
|Great Wall Motor||365,075||487,370||700||Including commercial vehicles, of which exports account for 150,000-160,000 units|
|Brilliance Auto||294,131||374,980||750||Including commercial vehicles. Exports 70,000 units. Chongqing plant 200,000 units.|
|Mianyang Huaxing Automobile||46,246||44,561|
|JAC||217,201||202,395||300||Exports of 70,000 units including commercial vehicles|
|Zotye Holding Group||134,920||122,194||n.a|
|Lifan Industry||122,319||182,860||Approx. 220||180,000 units excluding minivans|
|Fujian Automobile||116,953||110,104||Over 150|
|Fujian Benz||10,960||7,466||n.a.||20,000 units announced in July 2011|
|Others (Note 3)||187,679||167,909||n.a.|
|Grand total||14,472,416||15,495,240||Over 18,000||Only passenger car|
|Note 1.||OEMs in descending order of 2012 sales volume. Passenger car sales and 2013 passenger car sales plan are on a wholesale/factory shipment basis.|
|2.||Dongfeng Automobile sold 263,210 units in 2012 including Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile and commercial vehicles, which includes light vehicles (160,494 units) and SUVs/MPVs/Pickups (102,716 units). Dongfeng Automobile also produced 163,296 engines and sold 162,231 engines.|
|3.||Others is the total by OEMs that sold less than 45,000 passenger cars and no passenger cars in 2012 including Young Man Automobile Group (45,000 units in 2012), Haima Automobile (44,000 units, excluding FAW Haima, Hawtai Automobile (34,000 units, 100,000 units planned in 2013).|
<Table 5> 2012 sales in China and 2013 sales plan and details of forecast by major foreign OEM in China
|OEM||2012 Sale Volume||2013 Sales Plan|
|Japanese model||Toyota||･ Retail sales 841,000 units (down 4.9% year-on-year, only in mainland China, including imported cars such as Lexus) ･ Hong Kong about 10,000 units||･ Retail sales 900,000 units (only in mainland China, including imported cars such as Lexus) ･ Wholesale over 970,000 units (only in mainland China, excluding imported cars other than Lexus)|
|Toyota brand||･ Wholesale 746,000 units (excluding imports) Including FAW Toyota Motor Sales 496,000 units, GAC Toyota 250,000 units||･ Wholesale 890,000 units (only in mainland China, excluding imports) Including FAW Toyota Motor Sales over 600,000 units, GAC Toyota 290,000 units|
|Lexus brand||･ 64,000 units (up 14.3% year-on-year)||･ 80,000 units (including HV version 20,000 units)|
|Nissan Gr.||･ 1.211 million units (including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)||･ Over 1.336 million units (including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)|
|Nissan total||･ *765,000 units (including commercial vehicles, only Nissan/Infiniti brand) ･ Wholesale 1.182 million units (down 5.3% year-on-year, including Dongfeng/Venucia passenger cars and LCVs)||･ *728,000 units (including commercial vehicles, only Nissan/Infiniti brand)|
|Nissan brand||･ *752,000 units (including commercial vehicle 16,000 units) ･ 793,000 units||･ *714,000 units (including commercial vehicle 22,000 units)|
|Infiniti brand||･ *13,000 units ･ 16,000 units (down 16% year-on-year)||･ *14,000 units|
|Honda||･ Wholesale 632,000 units (including exports/imports) Including imports of the Acura and Honda HV about 4,400 units, sales in China of locally made vehicles 598,000 units, exports 29,000 units||･ Wholesale over 750,000 units (including exports/imports) Including sales of imported models such as the Acura and Honda HV total of about 50,000 units|
|Dongfeng Honda||･ 282,000 units (up 10.5% year-on-year)||･ 300,000 units|
|Guangqi Honda||･ 316,000 units||･ Over 400,000 units|
|Honda Automobile (China)||･ Wholesale 29,000 units||･ n.a.|
|Acura||･ *3,786 units ･ 2,300 units (down 42.7% year-on-year)||･ *4,562 units|
|Mazda||･ Retail sales 187,500 units (down 12.9% year-on-year, including imports)||･ Retail sales 200,000 unit (up 7.0% year-on-year, including imports)|
|FAW Mazda||･ Retail sales 114,000 units (down 16.1% year-on-year, including imports)||･ Retail sales 110,000 units (including imports)|
|Changan Mazda||･ Retail sales 73,500 units (down 7.4% year-on-year, including imports)||･ Retail sales 90,000 units (including imports)|
|Mitsubishi Motors||･ Retail sales 41,000 units (down 38.0% year-on-year) Including 23,500 units made by Soueast Motor, and a total of 17,500 units made by GAC Mitsubishi and imports||･ Retail sales 75,000 units (excluding Soueast Motor) Including 50,000 units made by GAC Mitsubishi and imports 25,000 units|
|Suzuki||･ *242,000 units ･ Wholesale 257,000 units (down 16% year-on-year, including Changan Suzuki 170,000 units)||･ *235,000 units|
|Isuzu||･ *65,000 units (including imports/commercial vehicle) Including locally made passenger car 1,865 units||･ *80,000 units (including imports/commercial vehicle) Including locally made passenger car 1,300 units|
|Subaru||･ Retail sales 43,500 units (down 24% year-on-year)||･ Retail sales 57,500 units (up 32% year-on-year)|
|European model||VW Gr.||･ 2.609 million units (only locally made vehicles, including exports) ･ 2.81 million units (up 24.5% year-on-year, including imports/Hong Kong) Including imports 189,200 units, commercial vehicle 2,300 units||･ 2.92 million units (only locally made vehicles, including exports) Breakdown: Shanghai VW 1.42 million units, FAW-VW 1.5 million units|
|VW brand||･ *2.173 million units ･ 2.15 million units (up 25% year-on-year, including Hong Kong)||･ *2.398 million units|
|Audi brand||･ 406,000 units (up 29.6% year-on-year, including imports 83,000 units/Hong Kong 3,000 units) ･ *408,000 units/403,000 units (up 30% year-on-year, only in mainland China)||･ 500,000 units (including the A6L 150,000 units/locally made vehicles over 415,000 units) ･ *472,000 units|
|Skoda brand||･ *244,000 units ･ 235,700 units (up 7.1% year-on-year, including Hong Kong)||･ *320,000 units|
|PSA||･ Locally made vehicles 440,000 units (up about 8.88% year-on-year)||･ Locally made vehicles 500,000 units|
|Dongfeng Peugeot||･ 216,200 units (only locally made vehicles)||･ 237,000 units (only locally made vehicles)|
|Dongfeng Citroen||･ 223,800 units (only locally made vehicles)||･ 263,000 units (only locally made vehicles)|
|Changan PSA||･ n.a. (its plant has not started operations)||･ n.a. (its plant has not started operations)|
|BMW Gr.||･ *311,000 units (including Mini/Rolls-Royce) ･ 326,400 units (up 40.4% year-on-year, including Mini)||･ *347,000 units (including Mini/Rolls-Royce)|
|BMW||･ *289,000 units ･ 303,000 units (up 39.7% year-on-year, including 147,000 units made in China, only in mainland China)||･ *322,000 units|
|Mini||･ *22,000 units ･ 23,400 units||･ *24,000 units|
|Daimler||･ *231,000 units (including Benz/smart/Denza and commercial vehicle) ･ 206,000 units (up about 4% year-on-year, only in mainland China, including smart/AMG/Maybach) (Note 3)||･ *293,000 units (including Benz/smart/Denza and commercial vehicle) ･ 274,000 units (up about 33% year-on-year, including smart)|
|Benz brand||･ Retail sales 196,000 units (up 1.5% year-on-year, including smart/commercial vehicle, only in mainland China) ･ *220,000 units||･ Retail sales about 216,000 units （up 10% year-on-year, including smart/commercial vehicle, only in mainland China) ･ *277,000 units|
|smart brand||･ *11,000 units ･ 15,680 units (up 45%)||･ *12,000 units|
|Denza brand||･ n.a. (Operation has not started)||･ *4,188 units|
|Renault||･ *25,000 units (including Renault-Samsung 24,000 units) ･ 29,700 units (up 22.4% year-on-year, including Samsung)||･ *28,000 units (including Renault-Samsung 26,000 units)|
|Volvo Car||･ 42,000 units (down 10.9% year-on-year)||･ 60,000 units|
|JLR||･ *59,000 units ･ 73,000 units (up 74% year-on-year)||･ *70,000 units|
|Jaguar||･ *5,160 units||･ *5,722 units|
|Land Rover||･ *54,000 units||･ *64,000 units|
|Fiat Gr.||･ *46,500 units (including Alfa Romeo/Ferrari/Maserati)||･ *53,600 units (including Alfa Romeo/Ferrari/Maserati)|
|Fiat brand||･ *1,195 units||･ *4,477 units|
|Iveco brand||･ *44,186 units||･ *47,359 units|
|US model||GM||･ Wholesale 2.836 million units (up 11.3% year-on-year, including Wuling/ Baojun models and exports)||･ Wholesale over 3.078 million units (including Wuling/ Baojun models, exports 100,000 units)|
|Shanghai GM||･ Wholesale 1.364 million units||･ Wholesale over 1.5 million units|
|SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile||･ Wholesale 1.486 million units (including mini trucks)||･ Wholesale 1.5 million units (including mini trucks)|
|FAW-GM||･ Wholesale 94,000 units (only passenger car)||･ Wholesale 78,000 units (including commercial vehicle)|
|Opel||･ *173,000 units||･ *190,000 units|
|Ford Gr.||･ 627,000 units (including imports, up 21% year-on-year) Including passenger car 427,000 units (up 31% year-on-year)||･ n.a.|
|･ *469,000 units (including Lincoln/Ford, imports)||･ *598,000 units (including Lincoln/Ford, imports)|
|Ford brand||･ 627,000 units (up 21% year-on-year, including 418,500 units made by Changan Ford) ･ *468,000 units||･ n.a. (600,000 units made by Changan Ford) ･ *597,000 units|
|Jiangxi brand||･ 200,000 units (up 3% year-on-year)||･ n.a.|
|Chrysler Gr.||･ *53,500 units||･ *78,400 units|
|Jeep brand||･ *21,700 units ･ Up 107% year-on-year (Grand Cherokee up 68%, Wrangler up 76%, Patriot/Compass up by a total of 124%)||･ *15,300 units|
|Chrysler brand||･ *145 units (including 50 units made by Soueast Motor)||･ *106 units|
|Dodge brand||･ *32,000 units (Sales of models made by Soueast Motor were discontinued)||･ *63,000 units|
|Korean model||Hyundai-Kia Gr.||･ 1.34 million units (only locally made vehicles) ･ 1.392 million units (up 14.2% year-on-year, including imports 52,000 units)||･ 1.52 million units (only locally made vehicles)|
|Hyundai||･ Locally made vehicle 860,000 units||･ Locally made vehicle 1 million units|
|Kia||･ Locally made vehicle 480,000 units||･ Locally made vehicle 520,000 units|
|Ssangyong||･ *1,999 units||･ *1,603 units/13,000 units|
|Taiwan model||Yulon||･ 31,000 units (sales 6.485 billion RMB)||･ 55,000-60,000 units (sales over 9 billion RMB)|
|Note 1.||Figures with * in 2012 sales volume and 2013 sales plan represent forecast by LMC Automotive in January 2013. Figures without * in the 2013 sales volume plan/forecast are based on an original survey by MarkLines.|
|2.||Original brand models by foreign OEM affiliated joint ventures such as Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Car's Venucia and SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile's Baojun are included in foreign OEMs. In the above table, sales volume of imported vehicles and sales volume outside mainland China including Hong Kong are included. With these differences in statistical standard, the above Table, and Table 2 and Table 4 do not necessarily agree.|
|3.||Including S-class 33,000 units (up 7% year-on-year), B-class 2,760 units, GLK-class up 27%, C-class up 9%, and E-class up 4%.|
Production Forecast by LMC Automotive: Chinese production forecast by make
|(LMC Automotive、February 2013)|
LMC Automotive forecasted on February 2013 that Chinese Light Vehicle production will increase by 9.9% y/y to 20.03 million in 2013. The growth rate is forecasted to be greater than the 2012 production's scale, which is 6.4%. This is because 2013's rate is assumed to increase proportionally to the increase of the production.
Chinese light vehicles sales forecast by make
|SALES GROUP||GLOBAL MAKE||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Brilliance Jinbei Sub-total||456,850||440,807||485,102||532,045||605,187||657,216||707,492|
|BYD Auto Sub-total||521,232||449,425||455,444||494,640||599,202||721,074||807,461|
|Changan Automobile Group||Chana||1,104,089||855,051||854,089||951,504||1,171,288||1,319,592||1,468,092|
|Changan Automobile Group Sub-total||1,380,304||1,022,952||950,926||1,092,669||1,343,533||1,514,202||1,678,002|
|Chery Group Sub-total||691,924||637,423||563,951||595,813||712,305||790,682||857,447|
|Dongfeng Motor||DF Honda||0||0||14,160||25,850||31,744||47,734||57,353|
|Dongfeng Motor Sub-total||670,201||739,065||806,170||858,233||986,568||1,130,054||1,256,523|
|FAW Group Sub-total||623,343||534,449||426,410||466,685||513,774||561,558||576,123|
|Fiat-Chrysler Group Sub-total||37,939||41,489||53,265||99,898||183,424||300,350||382,572|
|Geely Group Sub-total||433,780||452,245||500,178||530,279||662,810||819,839||949,941|
|General Motors Group||Buick||244,028||257,808||233,900||303,768||348,820||423,350||472,448|
|General Motors Group Sub-total||1,110,691||1,274,184||1,367,308||1,494,500||1,628,304||1,836,736||1,978,736|
|Great Wall Motor||Great Wall||398,692||486,062||624,183||709,444||849,636||916,251||1,001,989|
|Hyundai Group Sub-total||1,042,803||1,175,153||1,340,575||1,486,216||1,691,391||1,839,331||1,979,194|
|PSA Group Sub-total||376,331||405,935||443,463||492,752||567,576||629,105||671,207|
|Renault-Nissan Group Sub-total||757,645||891,264||747,581||778,322||864,538||956,982||1,057,267|
|SAIC Group Sub-total||1,342,997||1,375,401||1,678,606||1,864,568||2,200,255||2,442,136||2,647,462|
|Tata Group Sub-total||0||0||0||0||8,460||58,725||81,786|
|Toyota Group Sub-total||773,677||800,797||752,470||760,536||822,656||857,936||932,865|
|Volkswagen Group Sub-total||1,899,629||2,196,224||2,624,843||2,924,203||3,367,455||3,615,974||3,861,995|
|Other Chinese Manufacturers||Beijing||59,134||68,871||113,949||143,634||175,665||198,680||210,703|
|Other Chinese Manufacturers Sub-total||1,507,634||1,473,225||1,606,649||1,761,413||2,032,477||2,222,342||2,393,869|
|Source：LMC Automotive "Global Automotive Production Forecast (February, 2013)"|
|Note 1.||Data indicate figures of only small-size vehicles, including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of under 6 tons.|
|2.||All rights reserved. Reproduction of any data will require permission of LMC Automotive.|
|3.||For more detailed information or inquiries of forecast data, please contact LMC Automotive.|
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