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ASEAN: Expanding Presence of Chinese OEMs, Rapid Growth in Vietnam
GlobalData Sales Forecast: ASEAN market to reach 4 million unit level in 5 years
2026/09/09
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Summary
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ASEAN market enters recovery phase; Vietnam's presence grows
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Electrification: Regional differences in the proportion of BEVs
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Production structure changing due to domestic demand recovery and EV investment
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Thailand: Domestic sales rebound, but production shrinks due to slowing exports
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Indonesia: Demand set to rebound on the back of EV policies despite sluggish sales
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Malaysia: Sales expand as local OEMs support the market
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Philippines: Sales reach record highs but slow down; local production strengthened amid government support measures
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Vietnam: Automotive market expands amid economic growth spread of EVs
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Singapore: Sales continue to expand, driven by increased demand for EVs
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GlobalData Sales Forecast: ASEAN market to reach 4 million unit level in 5 years
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Sales volume by powertrain in the six major ASEAN countries
Summary
The markets of the six major ASEAN countries contracted in 2024 due to sluggish performance in the Thai and Indonesian markets, but have been on a recovery trajectory since 2025. Sales for the January-June 2026 period increased by 11% year-over-year (y/y), with Vietnam in particular driving market growth due to its strong economic growth and expanding sales of VinFast.
Electrification is progressing in Vietnam and Thailand, and the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is also rapidly advancing in Indonesia. In addition to subsidies and tax incentives provided by the various governments, aggressive product launches and production investments by Chinese OEMs are driving market expansion.
While Thailand and Indonesia continue to be the main production bases in ASEAN, the production landscape is shifting from a focus on Japanese manufacturers to a multi-polar structure due to the expansion of EV-related investments by BYD, Chery, VinFast and others. Furthermore, while Thailand remains the largest exporter, its growth continues to slow amid weak demand and intensifying competition in its major export markets. On the other hand, Indonesia is increasing its presence as an export base by expanding its exports within the ASEAN region and to Latin America.
GlobalData forecasts the ASEAN light vehicle market to reach 3.4 million units in 2026. The background to this includes demand stimulus measures in Indonesia, the extension of the exemption from BEV registration fees in Vietnam, and the expansion of xEV (electrified vehicles) sales in Thailand. The ASEAN market is expected to maintain its medium- to long-term expansion trend, reaching a level of 4 million units in five years.
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