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Mexico: Exports to the U.S. Decline, Electrified Vehicles Grow
GlobalData Sales Forecast: Chinese Automakers Gain Share, Trade Policy Remains Concern
2026/06/05
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Summary
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Exports: Shipments to the U.S. slow amid tariff impacts
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Production: Plant restructuring advances amid changes in U.S. exports
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Domestic Sales: Growth slows while demand for affordable vehicles increases
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Electrified vehicle sales continue to grow, driven by HEVs
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GlobalData Sales Forecast: Mexico remains stable at around 1.6 million units as Chinese brands expand market share
Summary
According to MarkLines, exports to the U.S. declined year-over-year in 2025 as OEMs curbed shipments in response to higher U.S. tariffs. Production also decreased as OEMs implemented production adjustments in advance. Meanwhile, export destinations have become increasingly diversified, and in 2026, production and export continue under the higher-tariff environment.
According to GlobalData's sales forecast (Q1 2026), the Mexican light vehicle market is expected to grow slowly at an average annual rate of approximately 1%, then transition into a stable market. Although car ownership rates are low and potential demand exists, the realization of that demand will be slow due to constraints on purchasing power. In addition, while the penetration of Chinese OEMs will provide a short-term boost to sales and bring forward demand, the resulting lengthening in vehicle ownership periods will act as a restraining factor on mid-term sales growth. Chinese automakers already account for more than 10% of the Mexican light vehicle market and are expected to further increase market share in the coming years.
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