New regulations on fuel economy in U.S. and compliance plans among OEMs (1)

2016 MY will see more direct fuel injection and compact engines with an increase of mini/small cars

2011/10/21

Summary

 New regulations came into force in the United States in January 2011 requiring CO2 emissions from 2016 MY light-duty vehicles not to exceed 250 gram/mile and 35.5 mpg (15.1 km/L) CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy; 34.1 mpg aside from any improvements in air conditioning systems).

 In July 2011, President Obama proposed a second step of regulations for 2025 MY CO2 emissions to be 163 gram/mile and 54.5 mpg (23.2 km/L) CAFE (49.6 mpg aside from any improvements in air conditioning systems, etc.).

 This report "New regulations on fuel economy in U.S. and compliance plans among OEMs (1)" contains a summary of the 2016 MY regulations and the progress of the proposed 2025 MY regulations along with their influence and technologies addressing improved fuel efficiency likely to be introduced by automakers.

 Basically, automakers plan to meet the 2016 MY regulations by improving efficiencies of their internal combustion engines. They will focus on compact, four-cylinder engines toward that goal and, as a result, EPA and NHTSA predict that the direct injection engines will account for 60% of the gasoline engines among the 2016 MY vehicles. They also predict that the ratio of mini/small cars and CUV will increase substantially by 2016 MY.

 According to EPA and NHTSA, automakers must introduce EV (electric vehicle)/PHV (plug-in hybrid vehicle) and other game-changing, advanced technologies, in addition to relying on more efficient gasoline engines and market penetration of HV (hybrid vehicles), thereby transforming the vehicle fleet entirely if they are to meet the projected 2025 MY regulations. It is likely that there will be more incentives for EV/PHV under the 2025 MY regulations than under the 2016 MY regulations. Credits favoring full-size pickup HV are also being planned.

 The upcoming report "New regulations on fuel economy in U.S. and compliance plans among OEMs (2)" will contain concrete fuel efficiency improvement plans among automakers.

 See http://www.marklines.com/en/regulation/environment/emission_us49 for details of CO2 emissions and fuel economy regulations for 2012-2016 MY.