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User Guide

Global Top 10 OEMs Production Forecast (Q3 2026)

Global production expects to decrease by 1.7% YoY to 91.60M units in 2026, 91.65M units in 2027

2026/10/29

Summary
Commentary by GlobalData

Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

-According to a report by GlobalData as of Q3 2026, global light vehicle production in 2026 is expected to contract 1.7% YoY to 91.6 mn and decline of 0.4% from the previous report.

-The evaporation of China’s LV subsidy scheme underpins the bulk of the near-term downgrade to the Global LV production forecast, although stronger-than-expected activity elsewhere – particularly India - provide some positive offset. In aggregate, we have cut an annual average of 700k to the 2026 and 2027 Global LV production forecasts since our Q2 report, with full-year total LV output now expected to contract by -1.7% (YoY) for 2026 and remain virtually flat in 2027.
-While this virtual ‘reset’ to China’s anticipated domestic LV market growth potential is set to have a significant negative knock-on effect to Chinese LV production through the medium-term, it remains the case that non-mature producing regions — including China, India and Brazil — continue to provide the foundation of long-term LV output growth. However, global overcapacity and competition associated with the electrification transition is fueling geopolitical tensions and, with it, a more protectionist approach to global automotive commerce. Indeed, one consequence from the recent Middle East related oil price surge is the uptick in consumer interest of EVs, which is prompting more immediate competitive pressures between legacy OEMs and new Chinese manufacturers. Ultimately, this will play an increasing role in vehicle sourcing and trade-flow dynamics, as well as longer-run manufacturing rationalization and industry consolidation.

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