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User Guide

LMC Automotive European Passenger Car Sales Update (December 2022)

2023/01/12

Summary
Commentary

Summary

The Western Europe PV selling rate rose from 12.2 mn units/year in November to 13.1 mn units/year in December. This was the strongest performance of 2022 and was supported by a rush to register BEVs and PHEVs in some markets before government incentives changed. In raw monthly registration terms, December 2022 was up 16.5% year‐on‐year (YoY), with 1 mn units registered. However, the overall 2022 sales volume was 4.1% lower than 2021, highlighting the intensity at which supply constraints have been hampering market performance.
The German PV selling rate rose from 3.2 mn units/year in November to 4.2 mn units/year in December. This was a key driver of the overall region’s better performance, with the German market seeing strength prior to the lowering of government support on BEVs and PHEVs from 2023. For the UK, the PV selling rate eased back in December, to 1.9 mn units/year from 2.2 mn units/year in November. The French PV selling rate also slipped slightly below November’s 1.8 mn units/year to 1.7 mn units in December. Italy’s PV selling rate picked up again from 1.5 mn units/year in November to 1.6 mn units/year. However, Spain’s latest PV selling rate fell from 970k units/year in November to 910k units/year in December.
With the arrival of 2023, while we expect supply constraints to improve overtime, they will continue to dictate vehicle sales, with potential buyers continuing to have lengthy wait times for new cars. Moreover, despite underlying demand having been well above what OEMs can supply (as evidenced by order backlogs), demand conditions themselves are worsening as Western Europe moves into a recessionary period over the first half of 2023. Households continue to face the squeeze of higher prices and increased financing costs, which will affect their appetite to purchase big ticket items. As such, there is a growing risk that with a worsening macroeconomic outlook, the weakening demand side will soon begin to influence vehicle sales.

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